Jannick Malling

I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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645 Ventures’ first fund was a scrappy $8 million seed round announced in 2014. In late 2022 the firm raised its largest funds ever with $350 million across two; a $195 million fourth flagship fund and a select fund of $153 million. Seed- and early-stage venture is a network-driven business. However, what differentiates 645 Ventures is that it has also built its own software to source investments at the seed stage.

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Fin Capital’s Fintech CEO Pulse Report is out! We surveyed over 50 CEOs and C-suite leaders of private companies from our portfolio and the broader fintech industry during June and July 2024 to get a quick pulse on what’s top of mind for fintech’s leaders. Here are some key takeaways: Optimism in the Air: More than 60% of CEOs reported being bullish or highly bullish on the fintech industry for the second half of 2024. Regulatory Changes on the Horizon: CEOs identified Cryptocurrency, Open Banking, and Buy Now Pay Later as the top three sectors likely to see increased regulation by the end of 2024. CEOs Want Business Development Support: Beyond capital and fundraising, business development support emerged as the top area where CEOs seek investor assistance.For more insights, including comments from my colleagues Ren Riley, Logan Allin, Matthew D. Mann, CFA, and Stephanie Perez, check out the full report here: https://lnkd.in/euHK8-9B

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Interesting data and good work from Carta in their inaugural VC fund performance report analyzing benchmarks for more than 1800 funds across six recent vintages - https://lnkd.in/e5R_dhXp Take a look at the pace of investments. As expected, capital deployment has slowed since the 2020 peak, with 2022 funds only using 43% of their capital after 24 months, down from 60% in 2020. This trend seems broadly consistent across private company and fund investing, with GPs and their LPs being more cautious and selective with capital allocation. Raising capital is tough today. Full stop. It's easy to focus on that, but I'd encourage us all to instead consider and focus on what is less talked about - that this cautious approach has created a large amount of available capital aka "dry powder," dedicated and ready to support special founders. The best founders are aware of private market dynamics, which impact the time needed to raise rounds and the milestones they must hit to successfully do that, but their primary focus is always the mission and the customers they serve. They are committed to building products to solve their customers' problems regardless of what us investors think. Building generational companies is never easy, but many have been and will continue to be built in tough markets. I try to take a similar approach in supporting founders. That doesn't mean ignoring market conditions, which can greatly impact my investment decisions and outcomes, but like focused founders, I know it makes more sense to dedicate my limited daily energy to what I can control. That means finding and supporting founders who are transforming or creating markets and doing everything I can to help them win, no matter what the market is doing. I hope to collaborate with many doing the same. Have a great week and see you out there! Note: These thoughts and opinions are solely mine and and mine alone. They do not reflect and are not associated with any company I am part of.

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Juniper Square recently released their look back at the state of venture in Q2 2024, and the data is interesting. 👉 The liquidity drought continues to stifle fundraising, with $37.4B committed to 255 funds YTD. 👉 In the current climate, established managers are securing 77% of fund value YTD, the highest concentration in the last decade.  👉 Over 63% of capital raised in 2024 so far is in funds of $500M+, the second-highest percentage in the last decade. 👉 Q2 reflects an uptick in US venture deal momentum, with quarterly deal count climbing to the highest level since Q2 2022. 👉 Q2 data shows a third consecutive upward quarter in both exit value and the total number of exits.  👉 Q2 hit a 9-quarter high in total number of exits, and the total exit value recorded was the second-best quarter since Q1 2022. The data shows that the landscape is especially competitive for emerging managers. When it comes to generating returns though, a fresh perspective can help find the most interesting deals. I wrote a bit about this last week, if you’re curious to dig into stats on unicorns at the seed stage, and the funds they’re raising from. You can check out the full report from Juniper Square here: https://lnkd.in/eN6VnY-k #emergingmanagers #stateofvc

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Pear VC Startup Equity Calculator for Early Hires Pear VC head of talent Matt Birnbaum created this calculator to determine the equity for early hires. You can read more here How to structure startup equity for early hires https://lnkd.in/ggmpT5-Y https://lnkd.in/gjsvths6

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Pro-rata as a service? The concept is quite simple, but a bit more difficult in practice. Early stage investors (pre-seed/seed) typically have limited reserve capital for follow-on rounds at Series B and beyond. Therefore, they need to be selective in picking their winners. Companies like SignalRank, another data driven investor in the market, uses their proprietary algorithms to identify top Series B companies and partner with early-stage funds to get access to pro-rata rights. They deploy capital in the later rounds and share the incentives with the early-stage fund managers who would otherwise forego those rights. A classic win-win scenario 🤝 You can read more about pro rata funds in the full article below!

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Big rounds are back. VC Funding is flowing. In April, there were 28 fundraising rounds announced with >$10M in funding. We've seen private market (pre-launch) deals valued >$3B recently. Private Markets are hot. Public Market comps (FDVs) are hot. But who will buy our multi-billion dollar bags? Deal Flow Digest April w/: - Recap of largest web3 funding rounds - Airtable with ALL the data - Hackathons & Demo Days - VC Fundraises Read more here: https://lnkd.in/g7V4KrAj

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We believe in extreme vetting of our founders. You can't build a unicorn if you spend time on silly stuff, like seeing family and friends. Grow up, and focus on investor returns. #vc #startups #investment

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"Small funds may have more incentive to produce higher returns The alignment of incentives between GP and LP varies drastically based on fund size. Managers of smaller funds who have invested substantial personal capital demonstrate an unwavering commitment to lucrative returns, while managers at the helm of colossal funds, buoyed by significant management fees, may exhibit a diminishing drive. This constitutes an almost incontrovertible structural benefit of managing a small VC fund. Furthermore, fund managers of established funds may, over time, raise larger subsequent funds and grow more risk averse. This can present a sub-optimal outcome for their LPs and, by virtue, manifests a bad omen for VC investing." https://lnkd.in/gHKgea4e

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Great episode for early stage VC's and capital allocators to check out. https://lnkd.in/ekz7JHJd #vc #fundraising #venturecapital

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⛳ Emerging fund managers pulse check. PitchBook tracks over 10,000 funds that are raising money, with 45% being emerging fund managers (defined as firms with less than 3 funds). Despite a dip in available capital—down to 16% from the pre-pandemic 23%—these managers are finding creative ways to stay competitive, like partnering with larger firms. 💼 Joanna Drake (founder turned investor) shared how "wildly different" it is raising a fund versus for a startup. One key datapoint she shared on the fund side was how little feedback you get along the way (and the years you can wait for it). The “long-winded and challenging process to raise capital” inspired Drake and Ben Black to create RAISE Global, a community for emerging fund managers and the “forward-thinking LPs” who back them. (A decade later, several hundred emerging managers with AUM under $200m are on the platform) They've found the newest emerging managers are more diverse and geographically dispersed than Silicon valley, and more were able to crack the ceiling and raise larger $100m funds (although this is still a small % of the market, requiring partnership with larger funds at the late stage). ▶ And not a hugely surprising datapoint: A lot of action is in the sub $49 million range, where roughly 50% of emerging managers are raising. Theresa Sorrentino Hajer, Head of U.S. venture capital research at Cambridge Associates warns that past success isn't actually a strong indicator on it's own to assess emerging managers. We've had a valuation reset. And newer managers with investments during the 2019-2021 "party days", need to build relevant track record and play to their strengths. A lot of emerging managers are specializing (70% who applied for Raise had a thematic focus), and betting on getting in as early as possible in the startup's lifecycle (Raise: 31% at accelerator/ pre-seed stages, and 47% at seed stage). “Emerging managers have to compete on a different dimension,” Nick Moran from New Stack Ventures. You're no longer just dealing with capital. Emerging VC's need to be as innovative and nimble as the startups they invest in, having a unique thesis and insights. They also play a role at the top of the deal-flow funnel: helping larger firms find promising companies, so finding a thesis, sector or philosophy aligned partner at a larger firm is helpful. Onwards! #EmergingManager #Startups #VC

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Can't wait to reconnect with the brilliant Amanda Herson and join the discussion with Maciek Gnutek and Iain Martin at Slush about our fund models and what they mean for Founders ❄ 🚀

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Movies and TV inspire us, but behind the scenes, outdated tech is costing the industry time and money. Enter RollCredits —a cloud-based financial management platform transforming the way production companies handle payments and operations. We're thrilled to announce The Artemis Fund 's investment in RollCredits’ seed round, led by Bienville. With a focus on frictionless financial solutions, we see immense value in streamlining the CFO stack for overlooked industries like entertainment. The film and TV industry is massive, with $28.6B in payroll and 269K employees in 2021 alone. RollCredits, led by visionary founders Nishant Mathur and Chase Gladish, is set to automate and simplify back-office processes, turning months of work into days. This is just the beginning—RollCredits is empowering production companies to focus on what they do best: creating art. Check out the full overview of our investment linked in the comments. #fintech #entertainmentindustry #innovation

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Pleased to share that Fin Capital’s Fintech CEO Pulse Report is out! Fin Capital surveyed over 50 CEOs and C-suite leaders of private companies from our portfolio and the broader fintech industry during June and July 2024 to get a quick pulse on what’s top of mind for fintech’s leaders. Here are some key takeaways: - Optimism in the Air: More than 60% of CEOs reported being bullish or highly bullish on the fintech industry for the second half of 2024. - Regulatory Changes on the Horizon: CEOs identified Cryptocurrency, Open Banking, and Buy Now Pay Later as the top three sectors likely to see increased regulation by the end of 2024. - Headwinds persist. Despite overall bullishness on fintech, CEOs report a weak IPO environment and flag that macroeconomic volatility, regulation, and high interest rates remain top challenges for their companies. However, with abating inflation, CEO’s believe we could see rate cuts begin in September, which could positively affect asset values and market buoyancy, including the IPO window. For more insights, including comments from Logan Allin, Christian Ostberg, Matthew D. Mann, CFA, and Stephanie Perez, check out the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gK6usfwM

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Today is an inflection point for Breakout with the announcement of our $4.5m venture growth round led by the experienced team at RockawayX with participation from Mechanism, Round13, CSquared, IOBC, and Mentat Group. Operationally, we’ve accomplished one of the hardest feats — going zero to one. We currently have over 5,000 traders that have collectively traded over $12B in notional volume and we’re growing exponentially. It’s now time to take things to the next level with a stacked treasury that we can leverage to improve our product even further and get Breakout into the hands of tens of thousands of new traders across the globe. I often get asked what it’s like to run a startup and many times I don’t even know where to begin. Startups are HARD. I won’t get into the minutiae but after 4 startups and 16 years, the biggest takeaway for me has been that in order to succeed, you have to mentally overcome the fact that successful startups need to fall forward and constantly navigate unique obstacles without allowing any one of those obstacles to paralyze the company. This is a constant battle that is unachievable without a resilient team that all share the same mindset and entrepreneurial drive. Our team at Breakout is the best I’ve ever been a part of and our growth in such a short period of time could not have been achieved so far without each and every person involved. You know who you are, thank you. We’re going to continue to push the envelope and will have some really exciting news to share in the coming weeks on the product front. Stay tuned. https://lnkd.in/ezPs8pdE

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