Jeffrey Abramowitz

Nasdaq 100 futures fall as much as 6.5% pre-market, trading just 2.7% away from bear market territory. The Magnificent 7 is currently set to erase $1.5 TRILLION of market cap today alone. Meanwhile, Japan's stock market just posted its largest 2-day decline in history. Just 3 weeks ago, stock markets were hitting all time highs around the globe. Panic selling is an understatement. (TKL)

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June CPI Inflation Expectations: 1. TD Securities: 3.0% 2. Barclays: 3.1% 3. Citigroup: 3.1% 4. Factset Consensus: 3.1% 5. Kalshi: 3.1% 6. UBS: 3.1% 7. Bank of America 3.2% 8. Goldman Sachs: 3.2% 9. Morgan Stanley 3.2% The median June CPI expectation shows headline inflation at 3.1% and Core CPI inflation at 3.4%. If CPI inflation comes in as expected, inflation would be at its lowest level since January 2024. Will today's CPI report pave the path for a September rate cut? (TKL)

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The U.S. stock market seems to be entering a correction phase. It will be clear in one or two days, but the S&P index is approaching the V target of 5,900P calculated by the Ichimoku method. Since the S&P index recorded 5,878P on October 17 and a doji pattern appeared on the chart, it is entering a correction phase. #Correction #S&P

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I come across this explanation of Fixed Income products about a year ago and found it super helpful to understand different Fixed Income products better, so I thought I would re-share for my network to take advantage of. As we know most businesses have trading desks working on specific debt related securities, below are the following that is likely traded in businesses. The below is copied so don't think I'm a Fixed Income guru by any means. 🤣 1. **Government Bonds**: This desk trades in govt securities such as Treasuries in the US, Bunds in Germany, or Gilts in the UK. 2. **Municipal Bonds**: Trades debt issued by state and local govts in the United States. 3. **Corporate Bonds**: Focuses on trading debt issued by corporations, which can range from investment grade to high-yield bonds. 4. **Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)**: Specialises in trading securities backed by mortgage loans. 5. **Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)**: Trades securities backed by other types of assets, such as auto loans, credit card receivables, or student loans. 6. **Commercial Paper**: Trades in short-term debt instruments issued by corporations to fund their immediate operating expenses. 7. **Money Market**: Trades in very short-term debt securities, like Treasury bills and commercial paper. 8. **Credit Derivatives**: Focuses on instruments such as credit default swaps (CDS) and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). 9. **Interest Rate Derivatives**: Trades products like interest rate swaps, options, and futures. This desk helps clients hedge interest rate risk or take speculative positions on the direction of interest rates. 10. **Repo Desk (Repurchase Agreement)**: Facilitates short-term borrowing and lending, often for other desks within the bank, using fixed income securities as collateral. 11. **Emerging Markets**: Trades debt issued by govts and corporations in emerging market economies. 12. **Distressed Debt**: Specialises in trading debt securities of companies that are in financial distress or bankruptcy. 13. **Structured Products**: Bespoke fixed income products that include structured notes and other complex financial instruments which are typically derived from other underlying securities. 14. **Short-Term Interest Rates (STIR)**: Specialising in trading short-term interest rate futures and options on futures. 15. **Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO)**: Trades CLOs which are securitised interests in pools of loans.

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Inflation is down…….. Price Increases over last 4 years... CPI Medical Care: +7.8% CPI Apparel: +12.7% CPI Used Cars: +18.3% CPI New Cars: +20.5% CPI Food at home: +21.4% CPI Shelter: +23.4% CPI Food away from home: +25.4% CPI Electricity: +29.8% CPI Gas Utilities: +34.9% CPI Transportation: +38.8% US Home Prices: +48.0% CPI Auto Insurance: +52.4% CPI Gasoline: +53.5% CPI Fuel Oil: +54.9% (Charlie Bilello)

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Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate: -June 12, 2024: Hold -July 31, 2024: Hold -Sep 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -Nov 7, 2024: Hold -Dec 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 4.75-5.00% -Jan 25, 2025: Hold -Mar 19, 2025: 25 bps cut to 4.50-4.75% -Apr 30, 2025: Hold

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The U.S. stock market has completed a short correction (3-day correction) based on the S&P index and the market has turned to an upward trend. The next barrier is 5,500P, which is also a psychological resistance line. If it breaks through this, it can rise to 5,535P or 5,575P (According to Ichimoku chart calculation formula) If overshooting occurs, it becomes 5,846P (Ichimoku chart E target value, overbought target value) Let's see how the market moves forward. #Stockmarket

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🇺🇸 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% 🇺🇸 US CPI (YoY) (Jun) Actual: 3.0% Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.3% 🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims Actual: 222k Expected: 236k Previous: 238k

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According to Bureau Of Labor Statistics data, the U.S. added 272,000 jobs in May, after adding 175,000 jobs in the prior month. Notably, the unemployment rate soared to 4% from the prior month and was up from the market expectations of 3.9%. On the other hand, U.S. hourly wages increased by 0.4% in May, after soaring 0.2% in the prior month. Notably, the investors were eagerly waiting for these job data for cues on potential interest rate cut decisions by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, market experts have said that unexpectedly robust non-farm job data could have dampened the hopes of the Fed taking a dovish stance with their rate cut plans. Now, with the non-farm job data noting a strong increase might dampen the market sentiment. However, the higher unemployment data paints a contrasting picture to it. Usually, the higher unemployment rate along with a lower non-farm payroll data tends to boost the market sentiment. PC:- CNBC

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$78,000,000 / $325,000,000,000 = .00024 A drawdown of roughly a third of a trillion $ of equity value and the penalty is .00024? I understand it wasn’t permanent. I understand bank capitalizations. I understand that two years of revenue as a fine is nontrivial. I understand that the damage was spread out and, in one sense, a rare progressive tax. But picture this hypothetical transferred to my home country: That loss would be about $1,000 for every single person in the US. Every single one. The fine levied for this man made mistake is about the value of of the most expensive home currently for sale in Miami. One single home. Get your head around that comparison. #riskmanagement

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How all young people should start their long-term portfolio investment career. Have clarity on what you are looking to buy and hold (below) … the rest is about diversification and your ability to be countercyclical.

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Are Analyst level roles a thing of the past as we delve deeper into the use and benefits of AI within Investment Banking's entry level roles? Wall Street's big banks are pondering the potential of AI tools replace armies of analysts which will majorly impact the flow of Graduate level roles at these firms. Top executives at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others are debating major cuts to incoming analyst classes, possibly reducing recruitment by 66%. This move could also entail slashing the pay of those who do get hired, as the jobs may become less demanding with AI. #AI #InvestmentBanking #WallStreet #FuturOfWork #Recruitment https://lnkd.in/eSYZXSgC

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Key points from the interview with Susan M. Collins, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Collins envisions scenarios consistent with either one or two rate cuts this year. The decision will depend on economic developments. Evidence suggests the economy is moving toward better balance. Collins remains optimistic about managing inflation and maintaining a healthy labour market. Key Points : 1 - Inflation reaching the Fed’s 2% target will take time. 2 - Recent data (CPI and PPI) align with an orderly economic improvement. 3 - Monthly data remains volatile, requiring patience. Collins emphasizes analyzing a wide range of data. Shelter inflation and certain services may be more persistent than other components. In summary, the Fed is cautiously navigating economic indicators to make informed decisions. 📈 https://lnkd.in/eNcnKTqg

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A change in pace for the FED? NFP has come out better than expected at 254K and with Unemployment Rate dropping to 4.1%, this may be a key indicator on the FED not following suit with another 50 bps rate cut. The markets as we know are extremely greedy and with Powell doing an exceptional job at taming their expectations, another 50 bps cut seems less likely after today. What does this mean for us? Interest Rates will continue to come down, just not at a pace markets initially expected. This means in the interim, we can expect some more US Dollar strength. Slow and steady does win the race after all. And being the global powerhouse that USA is, plus with the elections on the horizon, all eyes will be on the FED at the next meeting in November, just after the next US President gets elected. #NFP #USEconomy #InterestRates

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