Jason Thomas

The Golden Eagle Partners (GEP) Global Webinar Series (GWS) The Golden Eagle Partners (https://lnkd.in/gMnU6RYV) team would like to announce the next installment of the Golden Eagle Partners (GEP) Global Webinar Series. Our Global Webinar Series is meant to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge and wisdom from some of the leaders in the global Cannabis and Psychedelic sectors. We plan on talking to leaders from all facets of the sectors – finance, legal, science, investment, operations, political, regulatory – and from all different parts of the world. Our Next Guest – Luna Stower Our next guest for Wednesday August 21st at 900 PT/1000 MT/1200 ET/1800 CET is Luna Stower, MAT✨. Register in Advance https://lnkd.in/g3BrBFZ5 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar. Luna Stower Bio Luna Stower is Chief Impact Officer at Ispire Vape Technology in Los Angeles (previously VP of Business Development). An experienced executive and thought leader in the Cannabis industry, she's known for high-quality vaporization hardware for Cannabis. With 20+ years’ experience in the 'Cannabiz,' Luna has been named in the "Top 100 women in Cannabis," and "Community Cultivator" (Women's Canna Awards) for her vital role building some of California's most successful cannabis brands (Jetty Extracts, Blue River, Click Spray), helping establish them as category leaders. As employee #1 at Jetty Extracts and Ispire, she played a key role in those companies' growth and stability. A Bay Area native, she holds an MAT (Master's in Teaching) from USF, and a BA in Social Justice from UCSC, combining education & field experience to embed purpose into business. An internationally recognized plant medicine expert, Luna is featured as a panelist, speaker, and moderator at B2B events and consumer expos worldwide (Benzinga, MJUnpacked, Hall of Flowers, NECann, ICBC). In recognition of her impact on drug policy and social equity advocacy, Luna was been awarded "Cannabis Culture Advocate of 2021" (Cannabis Chamber of Commerce), "Best Activist 2023" (CA Cannabis Awards), "Most Important Woman in Weed" and "Notable Leader 2023"by Green Entrepreneur, "Global Cannabis Legalization Honoree" by CannaPortugal for her instrumental work in advancing decriminalization. Luna is a prolific podcast guest who moderates the Emerald Cup Speaker Series, featured on Hall of Flowers' Podcast, and judges the Emerald Cup Awards, International Cannabis Awards, Mila Hash Queen's Dab-a-Doo Cup, Women's Canna Awards, Farmer's Cup, and Full Moon Sesh. Luna's roots in community activism anchor her to a higher purpose, with a rich historical perspective and expansive professional network of sophisticated, trusted operators -- making a significant impact as a powerful female voice for justice, and an influential driving force for positive change. We hope you can join us for an informative chat!

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Is the U.S. Economy Stronger Than We Think? At Yale's recent CEO Caucus, 84% of top CEOs expressed optimism, predicting a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Surprisingly, 81% were taken aback by the economy’s resilience, despite widespread pessimism in public polls. With inflation dropping and unemployment at historic lows, real wages are growing, and GDP surpassed expectations. CEOs agree: the economy is outperforming the gloomy forecasts. What’s your take on that? Source: https://bit.ly/47Sds0i

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It was great to join @CNBC Squawk Box Asia following the US election to discuss the potential inflation impacts of the President Elect’s policies. While we expect rising tariffs to add to inflationary forces, a slowing global economy and restrictive financial conditions are likely to more than offset those pressures.   You can watch my clip here:  

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China’s stimulus: Lower rates = Weaker CNY? China is signaling additional rate cuts. One potential implication is that lower rates in China will affect the interest rate differential with the U.S., putting more pressure on the renminbi (and higher-beta assets in EM).

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"Asset Pricing with Cognitive Biases and Deep Learning": "Biased expectations can explain two central puzzles in the asset pricing literature: the equity premium puzzle and the excess volatility puzzle." https://lnkd.in/euFNTFM7

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There is no easy fix - a holistic approach to energy security.

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Important insights for navigating 2025 trade policy risk

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Welcome to "Fed Day" — a particularly interesting one for "forward policy guidance," including the tone and content of the press conference that will follow the release of the FOMC statement. Watch for The framing of the economic rationale behind the ongoing pause on rates. Indications regarding the timing and scale of interest rate actions in 2024, along with the economic conditionality. Insights into the evolving perspective on the "terminal rate." The announcement regarding the reduction in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QE). #economy #centralbanks #federalreserve #markets

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Constant change in key areas across the energy transition is being driven by rapid innovation and a continuing influx of capital. M&A activity continues in the renewables and distributed energy sector, driven by trends such as storage at the forefront, increasing power demand, reshoring initiatives, and more. Our Q2 brief discusses these trends and other M&A insights, including select transactions and the market landscape. https://lnkd.in/eQjEBTkK

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What does “concluding” mean in M&A? Concluding an M&A deal goes beyond merely signing on the dotted line. It's a critical process involving: • Final negotiations • Due diligence completion • Necessary approvals • Issue resolution •Transition alignment • This phase can make or break your deal. Read our latest post: https://lnkd.in/eGx2kEBV #StrategicExitAdvisors #Mergers #Acquisitions #Scalability #InvestmentBanking

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Equity Distributions with High Cash Flow CLO Equity is having another stellar year. Reported IRRs for CLO Equity: ~15% YTD for many of the top CLO managers. CLOs start with a warehouse line allowing CLO managers to accumulate/ramp their BSL portfolio of performing & highly diversified loans (~200 BSLs when CLO is priced). The most favorable CLO warehouse lines have non-marked-to-market facilities with roughly 4x leverage. Bank facilities provided with favorable terms are about SOFR +125 to +150bp range. During the warehouse ramp, equity seeks to earn 20-30% IRR, but this can vary widely, however it’s for a short period (~3 – 6 months), so the MOIC is low as it’s just a component that drives the overall CLO equity return. The BSL market is performing well. I expect the credit markets to perform well in this environment with default rates for BSL declining in the coming year, which should prove positive for CLOs debt and equity. AAA CLO tranches represent about 60% of the CLO cap stack and AAA’s have tightened to ~+130 from its wide earlier this year of S+150. The CLO equity arb is driven by the difference between the rate earned on the BSL portfolio vs. the liability costs (and admin costs). Holding all things constant, tighter liability costs are accretive for CLO equity investors. Credit selection and asset management is critical to performance as the best CLO managers employ dedicated teams of investment professional’s expert in loan underwriting, building, and managing highly diversified CLO portfolios. Strong credit profile is key to maintain low default rates, and its best to avoid CCCs, as mitigating risk is critical to performance. CLO equity also benefits from reinvestment during the investment period, active management that can add alpha via relative value, and repricing/extensions of CLO liabilities later in the CLO life span. CLO equity holders earn strong current cash distributions for well performing deals, with the potential to earn mid-teens IRRs, strong DPI and MOICs. The added kick is when the CLO manager shares a portion (10-20%) of its management fees they earn from managing the CLO (~40 bps) with the CLO equity investors. This fee sharing arrangement was first introduced post-GFC when CLO managers raised CLO equity funds required under risk-retention requirements as The Volcker Rule was introduced. Since the Volker rule no longer applies to U.S. CLOs, fee sharing arrangements are less prevalent today, but available from select managers. For these reasons and more, I am a proponent of CLO Equity and believe there is a place within in broader portfolio to hold these high yielding assets. Big shout out to Marathon Asset Management's CLO team who just closed Bryant Park 2024-24, a $405M CLO yesterday, bringing Marathon’s CLO capital market transactions to $2.4B YTD.

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Interesting developments in sell side research in China: decreases in research budgets and analyst headcounts, and, per the Integrity Research Associates article linked below, "eliminating the use of soft dollar commissions to pay for research from brokerage firms, consultancies, and market data terminals." However this doesn't mean that sell side data doesn't have value! With ExtractAlpha's TrueBeats earnings surprise prediction model, we're able to use sell side estimates - among other inputs - to predict both earnings and returns for A Shares names. The chart below shows cumulative gross returns to a top- minus bottom-decile portfolio. Yep I know, long-short isn't realistically achievable in the domestic Chinese market, but the point is that one can still differentiate winners from losers using analyst data. https://lnkd.in/eTnhmgZa

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Rapid sector rotation happening in the US market. India continues to be resilient while some Asian markets are under pressure. I talk about these topics in my recent discussion with CNBC-TV18

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Crystal clear, opinionated panel on « Navigating Geopolitical Dynamics: Implications for the Energy » at the World Economic Forum’s #SpecialMeeting24 in Riyadh. Two take-aways: - energy transition pathways will be country- and, most likely, entity-specific, as highlighted in S&P Global’s recent #LookForward on the Multidimensional Transition; see https://lnkd.in/eMvZGWUj; - the need for private capital to complement public spending for climate adaption and mitigation initiatives is imperative, and will require tight, global cooperation; check out S&P Global Ratings’ webpage on the #ClimateFinanceGap at https://lnkd.in/eY-W7VYg.

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=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

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SO excited to announce our next #MUFGinConversation featuring Hans Tung, Managing Partner of Notable Capital. 🚀 💎 Hans, a 13-time Midas List honoree, shared his incredible journey from a Taiwanese American immigrant to a top-tier venture capitalist. His career spans from banking to witnessing the dot-com boom at Stanford, and eventually leading investments in over 27 #unicorns including Airbnb and Peloton Interactive and several successful #IPOs. As we navigate the dynamic realms of #FinTech and #ECommerce, Hans’ advice to founders is to focus on execution and to leverage the shifting societal trends and technological advancements to build transformative businesses. 💎 1:35 – Hans reflects on his background and varied career journey to date. 💎 5:30 – Investment thesis & pattern recognition 💎 8:15 – All about Founder Market Fit 💎 10:05 – Investments – When to Hold vs. Exit? 💎 11:45 – Current E-commerce trends 💎 15:30 – FinTech sector in the eyes of private and public markets 💎 17 – AI is having a moment, but where are the true opportunities? 💎 21 – 2024 exit market outlook 💎 23 – Top advice for founders  Listen here for the full interview: https://lnkd.in/gduE8raU #AAPIHeritageMonth #VentureCapital #Innovation #ThoughtLeadership #FinTech #Consumer #Midas #GrowthandMiddleMarket

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The PBoC's blitz is an appropriate response to the challenges facing the Chinese economy. The current weak USD and low US yield environment probably provided more leeway for policymakers to add monetary stimulus. That said, monetary policy cannot be the only tool doing the heavy lifting. Fiscal follow through will also be needed. Bear steepening in the CGB curve would be a clear signal that investors have grown more confident on China's outlook. #DBS #Rates #China Mo Ji Nathan Chow Samuel Tse https://lnkd.in/gs5Pby-s

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

China's data last week has the market fretting about the recovery being "too uneven". Following the data dump, I chatted to Bloomberg about the state and the fate of the Chinese economy. Stepping back for a little perspective, China's property crisis over the last two years is akin to their very own GFC. It took the US economy close to a decade to heal the wounds from such a deep debt crisis. It wouldn't be unusual for China to need just as long to heal hers. During this time, new growth engines have to come to the fore. To keep things ticking over until then, Beijing can only control what it has always been able to control: investment into manufacturing and infrastructure. For now, those government-led growth engines are affording some stability. I just wouldn't get over-excited about any new piece of stimulative policy to provide the silver bullet to China's growth malaise.

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