Jason Miller

While most of the content I share concerns economic data, motor carrier safety (especially understanding dynamics of carrier-level safety) is my primary area of academic research. As such, I wanted to provide some thoughts based on this decade of research to FreightWaves news article about the Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing of Blue Thunder Trucking (DOT#: 320435). https://lnkd.in/gprt6vFp •What caught my eye that the statement, "Blue Thunder’s insurance was canceled July 1." That suggests safety issues. Sure enough, this carrier's CSA page is the epitome of an unsafe carrier (https://lnkd.in/gNyCVzZt) •The first metric I look at is Hours-of-Service (HOS) Compliance, not so much because HOS violations cause crashes, but because poor HOS performance suggests a lack of management controls. In an ELD era, a HOS BASIC score above 0.5 is bad, 0.7 is really bad, and 1.0 is terrible (especially for this size of carrier). Blue Thunder was consistently above 1.0, with June 2024 at 1.65. That is inexcusably poor performance. •The second metric I check is Unsafe Driving, as this is strongly linked to crash rates. My rules of thumb are > 2.5 is really bad, and > 3.0 is terrible. Blue Thunder has consistently been in the really bad to terrible range. •Those cutoffs are informed by this peer reviewed article: https://lnkd.in/gBRvUmav Implication: while I feel for all the workers at this carrier who were doing their jobs and operating safely, the harsh reality is that carrier management clearly didn't prioritize safety, and at minimum a subset of drivers was operating in a very unsafe manner for an extended time. This carrier closing will likely make the roads safer. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #logistics

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FYI: Record number of non-asset based 3PLs at our career fairs. These freight brokerage firms have numerous jobs. Note, they tend to be SALES related, so it is all about fit. 3PLs Need Data Analytics to Save Money. Solution? Hire WMU students that minor in Business Data Analytics (w/ these skills): 1. Advanced Excel (power query & pivot) & macros; 2. Data visualization (Tableau, Power BI & python w/ seaborn & matplotlib); 3. Data mining/RapidMiner, machine learning & data science; 4. Python & Jupyter notebook (data analytics & statistical libraries such as pandas, numpy); 5. Relational data models (Excel data model); and, 6. Graphic & statistical libraries (Seaborn, Matplotlib, Pandas, & Plotly). 3PLs & 4PLS: The WMU ISM supply chain career fairs have the largest presence of 3PLs & 4PLs that I have ever see. This is great news. This is a huge almost $1 Trillion industry & job market! Just remember, it’s all about match. “Non-asset” based 3PLs (i.e., freight brokerage firms)/4PLs tend to offer sales broker commission-based jobs. “ Asset”-based jobs might more resemble SCM jobs (rather than Sales) Supply Chain students & managers- As a professor, I sometimes really stumble when I explain the difference between asset based versus non asset based and 3PL vs 4PL. Here is my version: https://lnkd.in/eXFWG37 https://lnkd.in/geUnstfC A 4PL (Fourth Party Logistics Provider) is an org that can do all logistics for a company & a 3PL (Third Party Logistics Provider) can actually only perform some logistics. 3PLs are evolving into 4PLs. For example, Coyote Logistics (CL) has actually evolved into a “non asset” based "4PL" because they can do everything logistics related for customers. However, because they are non asset based, they do not own anything themselves. They just outsource everything to 3PLs & manage the process for their customers (and they do this exceptionally well). Why would their customers not do this themselves? Because CL can do it better, faster, & cheaper (hands down). Another example, JB Hunt would be considered an “asset” based 4PL because they can perform all logistics services with their own stuff/assets (like trucks, drivers, containers, etc.). JB Hunt actually owns the stuff it takes to store and move things around (they are actually doing it for you themselves using their own assets – they are not outsourcing it). I think getting a job at CL would be an excellent opportunity for SCM students in general. Just keep in mind that non asset based 3PLs such as CL, CH Robinson, TQL, etc, recruit across all majors, especially general mgmt, general mktg, & sales mktg. I would prefer that SCM students work for companies that pay a premium for your SCM degree. However, 3PLs provide services in an industry that you are majoring in, so to that extent it is a great match for you. Again, some of these jobs with the non asset types tend to be sales/broker (middle-man) jobs that are commission based.

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Will new tariffs shake up US supply chains again? In the latest Freightos Freight Market Update, Jason Miller, Supply Chain Professor at Michigan State University, unpacked the impact of Trump-era tariffs and what to expect if they return. 🔹 Tariffs didn’t end reliance on China—they rerouted it. Goods flowed through Vietnam and Mexico, sometimes rebranded as “Made in Mexico.” 🔹 Higher costs for consumers outweighed reshored jobs, with new tariffs likely to have similar effects. 🔹 Industries hit by retaliatory tariffs (like agriculture) saw job losses, while manufacturers faced steep input costs. With 25% of US goods imported, a 10% tariff could raise costs by 2.5%. 👇 Discover how these changes could shape your supply chain strategy. https://lnkd.in/dx7xdsFK

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The container shipping industry continues to move upwards on the spiciness scale from a pricing standpoint, with spot rates continuing to rise (and possibly poised to rise further as summarized in the article I'm linking to). My goal with this post is to summarize the key dynamics at work for easier accessibility: •The Red Sea crisis caused a dramatic increase in demand in the form of greater TEU-miles for shipments from South Asia to the USA and especially Europe. •TEU volumes are up strongly year-over-year, representing another increase in demand. •Congestion at ports in Asia (e.g., Singapore) and Europe due to changes in routings brought on by the Red Sea crisis. For example, we are seeing more non-standard transshipment patterns (https://lnkd.in/g35iD2vr). Congestion results in a reduction in supply as vessels wait longer. •Consequently, we have experienced both a positive demand shock and increasingly a negative supply shock. We all know what that means in economics... Implication: Imports in Europe and the USA need to plan for more disruptions and higher prices for container shipping as we move through 2024. The most affected firms will be: (i) lower volume imports in Europe and the USA will be more affected (due to greater exposure to spot rates); (ii) importers of dense cargo that has a lower unit value (think cheap furniture versus consumer electronics); and (iii) importers of cargo that sells for a lower gross margin rate (holding constant density) (think higher margin apparel versus lower margin apparel). #supplychain #shipsandshipping #supplychainmanagement #markets #freight https://lnkd.in/gqxGtVsS

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Automation in a sortation facility is the key to $$$ savings.....maybe the future is NOT SCF induction, but S&DC injection. Read the article, and draw your own conclusions. https://lnkd.in/evCtkFud

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I have an opinion piece in Transport Topics this month - it discusses what TL carriers need to know about how shippers look at transportation procurement. Specifically, I address the importance of monitoring the Spot Premium Ratio and the New Rate Differential in the markets. Enjoy the short read! #TL #transportation #procurement #spotpremiumratio #newratedifferential https://lnkd.in/esxiuvdP

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Recall my post just a few days ago about assessing validity claims concerning data? I was struck by a few statements made in this recent FreightWaves' article I just came across this morning that makes be even more strongly question how representative their tender volume data truly is (https://lnkd.in/g5XV3gts). Consider the following quotes: •"Dallas’ outbound tender volumes (OTVI.DAL) have grown approximately 50% over the past five years compared to the national average of 18%." •"Phoenix demand is up approximately 60% since April 2019." My simple question: over-the-road dry van capacity has increased just 4% over this period based on the BLS's payroll data for NAICS 484121: General Freight Trucking, Long-Distance, Truckload. We know from separate Census Bureau data compiled from IRS tax records and highly reliable surveys that nonemployer firms saw just a 1.5 percentage point increase in their share of revenue (from 18.5% in 2019 to 21% in 2022). As such, capacity hasn't grown more than 4.5% across all of trucking. If freight volumes were truly up 18% over this period, wouldn't we be in an incredibly tight market? Curious is anyone else can make sense of these discrepancies. My answer is simple: FreightWaves' tender volume data aren't capturing all trucking freight, and instead are capturing a nonrepresentative slice of the pie. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #transportation #logistics

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One question I frequently am asked is what indicators I examine to make predictions about demand trends in for-hire trucking. While not an all-inclusive list, here are some of my favorite indicators (some familiar, others less so). •Shown below, industrial production of coating, engraving, and heat treating establishments (NAICS 3328) has historically been a strong directional predictor of trucking demand (e.g., sharp increases in 2014 and mid-2017 - 2018, drops in 2015-2016 and 2019). Data from https://lnkd.in/gS3JcG7a •Institute for Supply Management's new orders sub-index for the PMI data. •Capacity utilization across all manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Board. Available from https://lnkd.in/gVUJ74ru. •Inflation adjusted spending on single-family housing starts, multi-family starts, and improvements from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. •Existing single-family home sales. Data from •Inflation adjusted spending on warehousing construction from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. •Fracking activity from either the Federal Reserve Board or Bureau of Economic Analysis. •Inventories to sales for machinery wholesalers from the U.S. Census Bureau (https://lnkd.in/ggc9ECg7). Implication: reading demand for the trucking industry is challenging, as many sectors generate demand for freight that needs hauled by trucks. I've found integrating data from the above series, plus others, tends to provide a good sense for the direction of trucking freight demand. As I'll be sharing more this week (and you can infer from the chart below), demand conditions remain muted (as reflected by Knight-Swift Transportation and Old Dominion Freight Line Q3 earnings). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #logistics

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I have long suspected FreightWaves data on truckload tender volumes and accepted loads are strongly weighted towards consumer-centric freight, especially containerized imports. Their most recent market update provides more evidence for my claim. Consider the following: •Accepted tenders have been up ~7% in 2024 from 2023. Do you know what else has been up by a similar amount in 2024 from 2023? Metric tonnage of containerized waterborne imports from Asia, which are up 14.5% year-over-year for 2024 from 2023 on a year-to-date basis. •The article mentions that tender volumes are up 15.8% today than in 2019. As tender rejection rates in 2019 and today are similar, tender volumes and load volumes would result in similar conclusions. I'm very confident that this isn't the case when you look at all of trucking freight (my trucking ton-mile index's most recent readings are within 2% of 2019 levels). However, containerized imports have steadily increased since 2019 and are following the pre-COVID trendline (and are up by roughly the amount FW's is reporting for their trucking volume data). Implication: you need to look closely at different data sources for trucking freight volumes to try and infer what industries receive the most weight. I've long felt Cass is industrial-heavy. FreightWaves appears to be the opposite. My own trucking ton-mile index is heavily slanted towards domestic manufacturing (specifically food, chemicals ex pharma, nonmetallic mineral products, paper, and primary metals) because of the Commodity Flow Survey. Things to keep in mind as you select which indexes to give more weight when undertaking strategic planning (e.g., if you are a carrier with lots of exposure to containerized imports, FreightWaves' data would likely be your preferred metric). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/giQiCCHf

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One type of index I put much less weight on when trying to read freight market dynamics (and more broadly economic activity) is consumer sentiment measures. This isn't because one of the main consumer sentiment indexes is published by the University of Michigan, the key rival for both my current employer—Michigan State University—as well as where I received my PhD, The Ohio State University. Rather, my concern is more fundamental in that consumer sentiment data is now too attached to politics. One chart below, which was published by The Wall Street Journal here https://lnkd.in/gRQk78ud (I'm just reproducing it as published). Thoughts: •This chart shows the consumer sentiment index by political party affiliation. Once President Trump was elected in 2016, Republican sentiment soared while Democratic sentiment soured. The script flipped in 2020 when President Biden was elected. And now we have a repeat of 2016 this November. •Why do I find this problematic? Simple: consumer sentiment is less linked to economic fundamentals than we would like in a highly political charged age. For example, EVERYONE went out and spent like crazy in March and April 2021 due to the joint combination of COVID-19 vaccination rollout as well as record fiscal stimulus. Implication: while consumer sentiment receives a lot of attention, I tend to downplay these data. I'm a strong believer that measures such as inflation adjusted investment in residential structures, oil and gas well drilling, momentum of manufacturing new orders, various industrial production measures, various inflation adjusted wholesale trade data (both sales and inventories), import data, and data on inflation adjusted retail sales and inventories, are more useful for shippers and carriers to anticipate freight demand. #supplychain #ecommerce #shipsandshipping #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking

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What consumers need to know about tariffs is that FreightWaves seems bent on advancing an incorrect narrative that tariffs won't increase consumer prices (https://lnkd.in/gwQdw4RK). Here are some flaws with this article posted yesterday: •Amiti et al. (2019; Journal of Economic Perspectives https://lnkd.in/gdGZGUE5) report, "In the wake of this increase in trade protection [following the Trump Tariffs], the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods." Complete pass-through = consumers paid higher prices because we didn't see cost of imported goods from China decline. Simple economics here. •As noted in the quote above from Amiti et al. (2019), we will see a reduction in the variety of goods that are imported under tariffs. That is a negative for consumer welfare, as it reduces choice. •There is no evidence that tariffs resulted in an increase in manufacturing employment in industries that received tariff protection (https://lnkd.in/gVUDYjrU), and industries targeted for retaliation shed payrolls. I'm sorry folks, jobs lost to offshoring are gone forever. Let's stop living in the past and wanting to assemble small electronic appliances and apparel in the U.S. again. •Tariffs on imported intermediate inputs used by U.S. manufacturers hurt the largest, most productive, highest wage paying U.S. manufacturers (https://lnkd.in/gjYznBsx; https://lnkd.in/gxr7PiFB) and were found to reduce export growth (https://lnkd.in/gzXUjgGJ). Implication: Craig, I challenge you and anyone and everyone FreightWaves to debate me on the effectiveness of tariffs in spurring manufacturing activity and generating economic welfare for the average American. I'm happy to discuss on this thread or on a live program. I dare anyone who thinks they can ball with me on this topic. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking

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To assuage concerns about U.S. food supply chain with the impending East & Gulf Coast container port strike, I wanted to share the rare evening post documenting that the vast majority of foods and beverages consumed in the United States are manufactured in the USA. The table below shows the percent of imports relative to total product supply (domestic production + imports) based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail-level Supply Table (https://lnkd.in/eQdPji9) from the Input-Output Accounts. Sectors are rank-ordered from most to least import intensive. Thoughts: •Most affected is fruit & nut trees, which maps well to the massive amounts of bananas that we import (in addition to many other products of this type). •We see distilleries and wine are ~30% imported, with the majority of containerized imports coming from Europe (meaning there is no chance for diverting that freight to the West Coast). •Otherwise, there isn't much for concern. Meats, eggs, poultry, breakfast cereals, bread, and especially dairy products that we consume are produced almost entirely here. Implication: even if we were to see a very extended East & Gulf Coast port strike, there won't be widespread shortages of foods and beverages. Yes, imported fruits and alcohol could become more challenging to find, but there is no concern about running out of meat, milk, bread, or other food staples. I'll share more data tomorrow about which specific containerized import categories are the most affected by the strike. #markets #supplychain #shipsandshipping #freight #economics

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Where are dry van truckload prices at? With DAT’s most recent data released this week, as well as the BLS’s PPI for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload [primary services], I wanted to share my thoughts. Two charts below. Thoughts: •Top chart shows DAT’s dry van spot rates (red) and what they call contract rates (black) (including fuel). Both continue to move in parallel. Historically, every major market shift (2014, mid-2017, mid-2020) has corresponded to a sharp uptick in dry van spot rates, inclusive of diesel prices. We just aren’t seeing any signs of such an uptick now, which further solidifies my view that we can write of 2024 as the year the market could turn. It’s time to turn the page to 2025. •Bottom chart shows the producer price index for the commoditized portion of dry van TL freight (which includes fuel). That index continues to move sideways. Historically, as with spot rates (but to a much lesser extent [at least in 2014 and 2017-2018), we will see these rates spike when market cycles change. The BLS’s data likewise is corroborating this hasn’t happened yet. Implication: despite a lot of excitement with the election outcome, the brutal reality is that the dry van truckload sector needs a significant infusion of freight to get out of the current “limbo” conditions where we have seen one cycle end but have yet to see another cycle begin. To continue to echo the prediction I’ve made for several months, the soonest I see the market meaningfully changing towards carriers’ favor would be late Q1 to early Q2 2025. We will need to closely watch demand signals over the coming months, especially data on manufacturing new orders. For the late Q1 to early Q2 market turn to materialize, we will need to see a rapid uptick in new orders over the next few releases from ISM. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #economics #trucking 

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Despite hype that the current freight recession is over (e.g., https://lnkd.in/gSqkfYu5), William Cassidy at Journal of Commerce, reporting from the Traffic Club of Chicago (https://lnkd.in/gZvn5-Nh) shared that shippers and brokers are taking a more cautionary tone. As I’ve said repeatedly, I don’t expect a true market shift to occur before late Q1 or early Q2 2025. Consistent with the need for caution (and patience), data for October’s industrial production wasn’t encouraging in many sectors. Two charts (made using the new improved visuals from FRED). Thoughts: •Top plot shows seasonally adjusted industrial production of fabricated metal products. The past few months have seen sharp declines in production (it is now ~2.5% below 2017 levels). As can be seen, drawdowns in fabricated metal production in 2015 and the especially steep drop in 2019 corresponded to freight recessions. While some of this may be due the Boeing strike (which cascades upstream to fabricated metal products), as can be seen, production has been trending down since mid-2022. •The bottom chart shows seasonally adjusted wood product production (e.g., sawmills, millwork like making windows, producing plywood, etc.). Production has been effectively flat since about October 2022, around 5-6% below 2017 levels. You will note how production started falling in Q4 2018, which was the same time the FOMC had started raising interest rates (and housing cooled). Implication: during normal economic cycles (like today), it takes many months for manufacturing activity to meaningfully lift itself off a trough. Carriers, remember that in 2017 we didn’t see the market turn until June, and that was with manufacturing starting from a better position at the time President Trump took office (e.g., lower interest rates, consumers in better financial condition, fracking activity much more elastic to oil prices). As November and especially December exhibit seasonal tightening, we won’t truly know if the freight recession is over until mid-January (and that assumes no extreme weather events like in January 2018 or January 2024). My belief is that we are in what I’d term “freight cycle limbo” in that the down cycle that started in Q3 2022 has indeed bottomed out, but we aren’t yet in a true upcycle. That upcycle will wait till late Q1 or early Q2 2025 to materialize. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #shipsandshipping

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A few quick thoughts about the recent FreightWaves State of Freight article for October (https://lnkd.in/gxg7tCk9). •I concur that we are at the bottom of the current rate cycle, but I'm less optimistic that, "we are about to see a great freight market." •I don't quite know what to make of the statement, “What we need to look at is a combination of volume and capacity.” And when that observation is made, Fuller said, the conclusion is “that it’s been a pretty strong market.” I would disagree with the claim that the market has been strong (certainly in 2024), as freight volumes are still down year-over-year (https://lnkd.in/gZWbFVXw), and spot rates are down from last year (https://lnkd.in/gCVMqY5T) •That Hurricanes Helene and Milton minimally affected the freight market echoes what I've been saying for months about such events (https://lnkd.in/gg5ZyJ2Z) Implication: while I've publicly stated that I could see the freight market turning more in carriers' favor by late Q1 to early Q2 2025, I'm less optimistic about 2025 looking anything like the second half of 2017 or the first half of 2018 (and certainly nothing like 2021) from a carrier standpoint. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #transportation

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One statement I routinely hear or read is surprise at how dry van truckload capacity has been so resilient given the collapse of commoditized over-the-road dry van TL lanes. Apart from abnormal profits earned in 2021 and 2022 helping keep carriers afloat, I believe another reason for the resilience of capacity is that many other services these carriers offer have not seen nearly as precipitous of a drop. One chart below showing this. Thoughts: •This chart compares the full producer price index (PPI) for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121) (full PPI) versus the primary service PPI (which captures generic dry van services). Prior to COVID-19, these two series moved in unison. However, since late 2022, they have sharply diverged, with the full PPI falling far less (it currently hovers ~35% above pre-COVID levels, compared with 15% for the primary service PPI). Both indexes include fuel surcharges. •I’ve checked with the BLS economist who collects these data, and what we are seeing isn’t the effect of reweighing or other methodological changes. Rather, the only conclusion is that other services (which account for ~1/3rd of revenue for establishments classified as primarily over-the-road TL carriers) have shown much greater resilience. •These services could include dedicated contract carriage, warehousing and storage, specialized TL transportation, or intermodal. When you think about large public TL carriers like JB Hunt, you can see services like intermodal and dedicated operations have shown much greater price stickiness. Implication: the greater resilience of the PPI for all services offered by dry van truckload carriers helps explain why the sharp decline in rates for the commoditized portion of TL services hasn’t caused a larger shakeout of industry capacity (in addition to record profits earned in 2021 and 2022). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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As most attention on imports is centered around the East & Gulf Coast port strike, I wanted to share a different import-related story: the incredible increase in U.S. imports from Taiwan that we witnessed this July. Two charts below. Thoughts: •The top chart shows imports from Taiwan in millions of dollars (https://lnkd.in/gJYUAHnQ). July came in at $13 billion, 30% higher than the prior record of $10 billion in June! That isn’t normal behavior in data to say the least. •Diving into the data, most of this increase occurred in just one 6-digit harmonized tariff code (out of ~5,000 potential HTC-6 codes). That code was HTC 847330 - Parts & Accessories for Automated Data Processing (ADP) Machines & Units. It’s also worth noting most of the remainder of the July import gains are explained by one other 6-digit HTC: 847150 Digital Processing Units, N.E.S.O.I. As such, the import surge is clearly linked to AI computing demands. •These data are consistent with WSJ just reporting about how AI computing demands are causing a surge (no pun intended) of electricity demand (https://lnkd.in/gypCNR3Y). I’ll be sharing data later this week on some sectors benefiting from continued growth of electricity needs. What the import data tell me is we are still in the opening innings of the AI computing shock. Implication: if these data are any indication, we are just getting started on the expanded volume of trade between Taiwan and the USA to support the AI computing boom. I'm increasingly starting to believe the AI computing boom could mirror the capital investment boom we saw in computers in the 1980s and 1990s that forever changed the nature of work in the USA. #markets #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight 

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Why does the current freight recession in the trucking sector feel so steep, yet truck transportation payrolls have declined only 2% from their mid-2022 peak (as compared with 6% drops during the 2001 freight recession and a staggering 15% during the 2007 - 2009 freight recession)? In this analyst article published yesterday in Journal of Commerce, I try to provide some answers to this question. Some key things to consider: [1]: This freight recession is middle of the road in terms of percent decline in trucking demand (measured using the trucking ton-mile index) compared to those over the last 50 years. For example, it is 33% the size of the 1973-1975 freight recession and just 25% the magnitude of the 2007-2009 freight recession. That said, the max drop in demand from March 2022 (recorded in January 2024) of 4.9% is double the depth of the 2019 freight recession. [2]: The perceived depth of the current freight recession seems to be more driven by the very sharp pull back in freight rates, with 2023 seeing record year-over-year declines in the dry van truckload sector. But important context: freight rates saw record increases in 2021 and the first half of 2022. [3]: The fact trucking demand remains weak, yet containerized imports are up high single-digit or low double-digit percentages requires a realignment of our understanding of trucking freight demand. As shown by the Commodity Flow Survey, domestic manufacturing output is much more impactful in shaping trucking freight volumes. Implication: to understand trucking demand, focus less on containerized imports and retailers' inventories to sales ratios and, instead, focus on industrial production in freight-intensive manufacturing sectors. Unfortunately, I'm seeing few signs of a demand surge coming in the second half of 2024. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/gSRgwUPj

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