Jamie Andrade

📣 Big changes coming with postal consolidators in next 45 days 📣 🤑 USPS price change has taken effect and DDU injection costs have increased by an average of 40% 😱 Consolidators have started shifting volume earlier upstream and service does not appear to have degraded [yet] 🏃‍♂️ Large Shippers are shifting significant volumes to USPS direct 💔 Layoffs have begun 🤝 Potential mergers have been discussed 💲 Losses continue to mount We will see big changes within the next 45 days... but what? ❔ Consolidation of consolidators? ❔ Dissolution? ❔ Price Increases? DeJoy is a cowboy 🤠 and this rodeo is getting interesting!

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I was thinking about this the other day, but one of the most fun parts of being a broker is the unknown. When you start you have no customers, and your book can develop in many ways. In terms of commodity, lead time, mode, customer personality, etc. I had all spot freight, short lead time, chaotic, and rarley going to the same places. It made it exciting on Mondays I could go into the week with 2 loads on my board and finish with 30-40. The aderaline of the unknown was one of my favorite parts, and clicking outlook emails that said “ Matt can you quote this” “ Matt I will have a xyz ready today” we’re exciting. What do you guys think is the anticipation of the unknown one of the best parts of being a broker? #sales #logistics #trucking #broker

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🚨 Section 321 Updates: Prepare for New Rules The U.S. is tightening controls on Section 321 shipments. Proposed changes include: ● Exclusion of goods under Sections 201, 301, and 232 tariffs. ● Mandatory electronic Certificates of Compliance for consumer goods. ● Enhanced data reporting, including detailed HTS classifications and importer information. 💡 Tip: Review your compliance processes now to avoid delays or penalties. What’s your take on these updates? Let’s discuss below! #Section321 #TradeCompliance #ECommerce #GlobalTrade #CBP

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I wanted to share my forecast for the first half of 2025 for the dry van truckload sector (link below). A few quick bullet points: •Even with concerns about tariffs and a potential major port strike, there are enough demand tailwinds due to lower interest rates and the "animal spirits" by the business community from President Trump's victory in November that we should see increased demand for trucking freight in 2025. •If I had to guess, by mid-2025, I expect we will see the trucking ton-mile index I coauthor with Yemisi Bolumole, PhD showing ~2% year-over-year gains. This isn't as strong as the gains we saw in 2013-2014 or in Q2 2017 through Q3 2018 because I do not expect a large increase in oil & gas well drilling because the price of crude oil and natural gas, coupled with record U.S. production of both commodities, makes increased drilling activity uneconomical. •I expect the residential construction sector will be the primary driver of elevated freight volumes, followed by machinery and motor vehicles (sectors set to benefit from lower interest rates). •My guess is we will see the primary service PPI for the dry van TL sector up about 4% year-over-year by June 2025 (currently down 0.7% year-over-year), with increases by the second half of the year in the 6-10% range. Implication: we should have some good tailwinds for demand blowing in dry van TL carriers' favor in 2025. My hope is those tailwinds don't get extinguished by poor tariff policy. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload https://lnkd.in/enyr_mfi

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One statement I routinely hear or read is surprise at how dry van truckload capacity has been so resilient given the collapse of commoditized over-the-road dry van TL lanes. Apart from abnormal profits earned in 2021 and 2022 helping keep carriers afloat, I believe another reason for the resilience of capacity is that many other services these carriers offer have not seen nearly as precipitous of a drop. One chart below showing this. Thoughts: •This chart compares the full producer price index (PPI) for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121) (full PPI) versus the primary service PPI (which captures generic dry van services). Prior to COVID-19, these two series moved in unison. However, since late 2022, they have sharply diverged, with the full PPI falling far less (it currently hovers ~35% above pre-COVID levels, compared with 15% for the primary service PPI). Both indexes include fuel surcharges. •I’ve checked with the BLS economist who collects these data, and what we are seeing isn’t the effect of reweighing or other methodological changes. Rather, the only conclusion is that other services (which account for ~1/3rd of revenue for establishments classified as primarily over-the-road TL carriers) have shown much greater resilience. •These services could include dedicated contract carriage, warehousing and storage, specialized TL transportation, or intermodal. When you think about large public TL carriers like JB Hunt, you can see services like intermodal and dedicated operations have shown much greater price stickiness. Implication: the greater resilience of the PPI for all services offered by dry van truckload carriers helps explain why the sharp decline in rates for the commoditized portion of TL services hasn’t caused a larger shakeout of industry capacity (in addition to record profits earned in 2021 and 2022). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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There is a lot of excitement in the trucking community that the current freight recession is over (heavily influenced by the articles from FreightWaves). While I’ve publicly said I expect a substantial increase in dry van truckload spot rates next year, it’s important to remember that a significant rebound of freight volumes will take some time to materialize (this isn’t an overnight thing). This can be seen in the most recent quarterly version of the trucking ton-mile index (now that September’s data is complete). One chart. Thoughts: •Q3 2024 came it 0.1% above Q2 2024; I feel good at this stage declaring Q2 2024 the bottom of the current freight recession, which began in late Q2 to early q3 2022. •While we saw very high levels of containerized imports, which appeared in sectors such as electrical goods wholesaling posting record inflation adjusted sales, it’s critical to remember that many freight-centric sectors of U.S. manufacturing continue to perform poorly relative to peak freight demand in the first half of 2022. These include: Wood products: https://lnkd.in/gNmwNRd5   Paper: https://lnkd.in/gYDt3kcK Plastic & rubber: https://lnkd.in/g8ya9dAw Nonmetallic mineral products: https://lnkd.in/gJEH2Gh5 Machinery: https://lnkd.in/gy2NrYza •It will take time for manufacturing activity in these industries to rebound. As I’ve said repeatedly, late Q1 to early Q2 2025 is when I truly expect demand conditions to get strong enough for spot rates to show the type of sustained increase needed to pressure contract rates. Implication: I get carriers are excited that brighter days are ahead in 2025. However, we need to be reasonable and understand it takes time for the manufacturing ecosystem to see sustained demand increases. Moreover, I have severe concerns about 2026, as I expect folks are going to be in for a very nasty inflation surprise… #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking

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New MIT research, backed by data from C.H. Robinson, offers a predictive model to forecast modal shifts between the Truckload and LTL sectors. Learn how to leverage this tool for your supply chain strategy in our latest blog➡️ ms.spr.ly/1744 https://bit.ly/41runWo

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LTL shipping into or out of areas affected by Hurricane Helene may experience delays. Carriers' operations could be affected differently based on their proximity to the tragedy. To mitigate shipping disruptions, consider utilizing multiple carriers. Spot Quote TL pricing is expected to increase in the coming days due to FEMA allocating vehicles at a premium cost for transportation into impacted regions with uncertain delivery timelines. Plan ahead for potential cost adjustments in your shipping logistics. #HurricaneHelene #Logistics #ShippingUpdates

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There's a ton of operational firefighting within the retail industry today, as stakeholders face mounting headwinds to running regular operations. The freight market is increasingly hard to predict, as peak shipping seasons inch earlier than anticipated, pushing prices up. Consumer demand and market competition have forced retailers to stock more SKUs, and the growth of social commerce has meant retailers can't really put a finger on demand spikes — which are both frequent and unannounced. External factors aside, retailers have internal issues with bloated tech stacks, that account for a mix of piecemeal and global solutions from different solution providers. It's common to see SME retailers struggling with dozens of ERPs that don't talk to each other as the data isn't standardized across the board, removing any possibility of interoperability. In a high-volume, low-margin business like retail, these issues could be extremely detrimental to operational resilience. I had an interesting conversation with Jason Tham, the CEO of supply chain collaboration firm Nulogy, on what can be done to improve actionable visibility within retail supply chains. Jason explained that companies need to focus on becoming agile rather than looking to improve forecasting. "The key is building agility into the supply chain to respond to such demand quickly,” he said. "Companies must partner and synchronize data to build agility, reducing entropy within their supply network." We discussed at length the challenges with synchronizing data, the need for partner collaboration, and building broader visibility into the system. Read on! #supplychain #visibility #interoperability #logistics #retail https://lnkd.in/gpkcekBQ

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TB's President of Logistics Eric Masotti recently weighed in on Inbound Logistics' 'That's a Good Question' series giving his insights on a supply chain misconception that needs to be cleared up. Find his take on the question here: https://bit.ly/3WBLqkK Let's keep the conversation going, what's your hot take on a supply chain misconception? #SupplyChain #Logistics #SupplyChainManagement #SCM #LogisticsManagement #SupplyChainOptimization #Transportation #DriverShortage

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#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

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This morning, RXO announced Q1 2024 results. Our brokerage business grew volumes by 11% year-over-year, our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume growth. We grew with solid profitability, delivering 14.2% brokerage gross margin in the quarter. We also saw momentum in our Complementary Services. We achieved another quarter of year-over-year synergy load growth in Managed Transportation. In Last Mile, we optimized our hub network and decreased purchased transportation expense. We’re continuing to execute well in this soft freight market. We’re entering the second quarter with improved momentum and the largest sales pipeline over the last four years. We’re optimizing our cost structure while strategically investing in our business and have a playbook to deliver strong earnings growth when the market inflects. I couldn’t be prouder of our team. #growgrowRXO #freight #transportation #brokerage #tech #logistics #RXO

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Shippers are adjusting contracts as tighter truck capacity looms in 2025, signaling a shift in pricing power back to carriers These proactive strategies help stabilize costs and ensure supply chain resilience. Bracing for tighter truck capacity, shippers rebid contracts https://buff.ly/4gtJgvQ

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I just lowered a client's parcel spend by over $330,000... By identifying hidden areas of opportunity within their rate agreement, I optimized their cost structure without the need for carrier switches or operational changes. Now, they simply just pay less and ship the exact same way as before. #LogisticsOptimization #CostSavings #StrategicNegotiation #ParcelManagement #3PL #DTC

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For anyone managing a supply chain, understanding the advantages of asset-based vs. non-asset-based intermodal carriers is key. Read this Shipper Best Practices resource on how owned assets ensure more dependable service and better freight visibility: http://sndr.pro/45

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Focus on your core competency There has been much said & even more written about RXO, Inc.'s acquisition of Coyote Logistics. My good friend, Grace Sharkey 🚛🤖💙 wrote of the deal over the weekend. For those in the business, this deal comes as little surprise. It's no secret that UPS has struggled to make sense of the volatile world of the brokerage industry. When it's good, it's great, but when it's bad... it's really bad. And lately, it's been really bad. While leaders are tasked with unlocking new revenue, not all that glitters is gold. And oftentimes those same leaders make the case that an acquisition creates the magical formulae of 1 +1 = 3. So let's do the math: UPS bought Coyote Logistics $1.8 billion in 2015. RXO, Inc. will buy Coyote Logistics from UPS for $1.025 billion sometime in 2024. 9 years & nearly $1 billion (that's billion with a 'B') in value gone. This is not an aberration. Brokering freight is increasingly commoditized & the margins of 2015 will likely not materialize for some time. I believe that RXO, Inc. got a great deal. I believe Coyote Logistics is a great company. The deal makes sense, but the landscape is changing. 2H of 2024 is going to be very, very interesting. https://lnkd.in/gt9MGusT

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New MIT research, backed by data from C.H. Robinson, offers a predictive model to forecast modal shifts between the Truckload and LTL sectors. Learn how to leverage this tool for your supply chain strategy in our latest blog➡️ ms.spr.ly/1744 https://bit.ly/4faKhaU

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Five steps to help reduce detention and demurrage charges? Yes, please! Check them out in C.H. Robinson's latest guide. https://bit.ly/3yvLVog

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Not a surprise. Forwarders generally are responsible for the bookings as well as transportation. So no matter where u are, you are tied to what happens at origin. They know immediately if space is tight and what carriers to book with to get equipment. If u are a forwarder, your lifeline is based on knowing the market.

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