Gary D. Kucher

The 56th edition of the Alt Goes Mainstream AGM Weekly newsletter is out! A new asset manager looks to be joining the fray. Bloomberg reported this week that Todd Boehly's Eldridge Industries is planning to transform into a new firm that will combine at least six existing platforms and launch with $65B in assets. News of Boehly’s new venture highlights what’s becoming an increasingly popular trend among alternative asset managers: a focus on permanent capital. Boehly’s success in asset management has very much been a result of his long-standing focus on leveraging the power of permanent capital. The crown jewel of Boehly’s expansive Eldridge Industries empire? Security Benefit, a life insurance business based in Topeka, Kansas. Eldridge certainly isn’t the only alternative asset manager who can see the value in having permanent capital, which some call the “holy grail of private investing.” Who is the leader of them all when it comes to permanent capital? Read on for more to find out which alternatives manager has leveraged the power of permanent capital, with data and analysis from Evercore's Glenn Schorr on why not all capital raised is necessarily created equal👇 The AGM Weekly, brought to you by 3i Members covers: 🗂️ AGM Index, an index that tracks the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers. 🗞️ AGM News of the Week, this week covering: 📌 The Wall Street Journal's Marc Vartabedian on StepStone Group seeing an opportunity in venture secondaries. 📌 Financial Times' Tabby Kinder on Lightspeed's shifting focus to secondary markets and what it could mean for the future of venture. 📌 Bloomberg's Marion Halftermeyer on how US pensions are pursuing PE co-investment deals in a bigger way like their institutional investor peers. 📌 Bloomberg's Eleanor Duncan & Francine Lacqua on Deutsche Bank's Hoby Buvat comments about banks and private credit firms teaming up to finance major trends like decarbonization and digitization. 📌 Institutional Investor's Alicia McElhaney on Aflac's approach to GP stakes investing and portfolio management. 💻 Who is hiring: Senior-level positions from companies Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Inc., iCapital, Blue Owl Capital, 73 Strings, AltExchange, LemonEdge, PitchBook. Subscribe 👇 to see the latest trends & navigate this rapidly changing landscape as alts go mainstream. https://lnkd.in/ecjTxztj

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Having a Cars and Capital event tomorrow in Southern California with Oren Klaff. If you want to join message me. https://lnkd.in/gDQ4D39u Oren Klaff Bridger Pennington #InvestorEvent #FamilyOffice #InvestmentOpportunity #CarlsbadEvent #PrivateEquity #WealthManagement #InvestmentConference #CapitalRaising #NetworkingEvent #IndustryLeaders #FinancialGrowth #InvestorsMeetup #WealthBuilding #BusinessGrowth #InvestmentForum

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My latest Substack post analyzes $XOM once again catching $TSLA in terms of market cap. Last 5 qtrs: $XOM returned ~$40bb to shareholders via divvies, buybacks. $TSLA: $0.00 That is what really matters. But the key to investing is the second derivative, and as EV sales slow (good for demand for oil, obvs, and for $XOM) I fail to see the Silver Bullet for $TSLA. Why? Because Elon let his product line get old. No amount of robotaxi/FSD necromancy is going to change that. Trade accordingly. Excelsior! --Jim

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🌟Innovative VC Firm Overcomes Exits Drought with Secondary Sales🌟 ⛵Navigating a challenging landscape where exits are scarce, Santa Barbara Venture Partners (SBVP) has pioneered a novel approach to sustain its growth and attract investors for its second fund: secondary sales. Instead of waiting for traditional exits like IPOs or acquisitions, SBVP opted to sell shares of its portfolio companies, demonstrating its ability to generate returns for investors and stand out in a competitive market. 🎤According to Dan Engel, founder and managing partner of SBVP, these secondary transactions have been a game-changer, sparking investor interest and bolstering the firm's credibility. By leveraging its recent successes, including a lucrative stake in sports-betting company DraftKings Inc.' acquisition of digital lottery app Jackpocket, SBVP seized the opportunity to return profits to its limited partners (LPs) and pave the way for its second fund. 💡Engel highlighted the challenges faced by young VC firms in raising subsequent funds, particularly amid a downturn in exit activity and heightened investor scrutiny. With traditional exit routes becoming increasingly elusive, the pressure is on for firms to demonstrate tangible returns and establish a track record of success. ✨"For us, secondary sales have been a game-changer. They've helped us return profits to our LPs and attract investors for our second fund," said Dan Engel. 💰For SBVP, the decision to pursue secondary sales was driven by the need to provide liquidity to LPs and validate its investment thesis in the eyes of prospective investors. By strategically offloading portions of its holdings in high-performing portfolio companies like Bark Technologies and Rad AI, SBVP not only generated substantial returns but also bolstered investor confidence in its ability to deliver results. ⚠Despite the complexities and potential stigma associated with early share sales, Engel emphasized the importance of prioritizing investor returns and seizing opportunities to unlock value for stakeholders. With a focus on profitability and transparency, SBVP remains committed to its mission of delivering sustainable growth and maximizing returns for its LPs. 🔍 "Returning profits to our investors is our top priority. By strategically selling shares, we're proving our commitment to delivering results and driving value for our stakeholders," added Engel. As SBVP continues to explore secondary transactions and expand its investor base, the firm stands as a testament to innovation and resilience in the face of market challenges. 🚀 ✅ Looking to raise capital for your #fund and increase the international pool of your LP #investors?   🤝 Need warm #LP introductions?   📝 Selling #secondaries to increase liquidity?   🧐 Looking for co-investments?   ▶ G+QUANT's link for inquiries and fund decks: https://lnkd.in/gjC_EuTE #VCInnovation #SecondarySalesSuccess #InvestorReturns #ValueCreation 

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The Information just broke the news of the incredible $8B+ #fundraising haul, with General Catalyst nearly doubling its last total. Fund breakdowns include $4.5B for "core venture funds," $1.5B for their "core creation team," and $2B for "multiple accounts." This was a 33% oversubscription to their $6B fundraising target, which surfaced in April 2024 by the Financial Times. While this is great news for the #entrepreneurial founders, the key question /challenge for General Catalyst will be where to place the newly closed funds to deliver the returns expected by their #limitedpartners that entrust them with their hard-earned capital. What do you think? #management #venturecapital #privateequity #capitalmarkets

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With Assets-Under-Management(AUM) and hold-periods being record high, Exits are strategic priority for investors to make private equity flywheel spin again...Looking forward to Real Deals summit how operating partners are collaborating with portfolio companies on exit readiness including coherent equity story with due-diligence mindset and robust value creation plan.

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The Trump Trade No One Is Talking About" - sharing this e-letter early b/c it's so timely. The last few days have been rough for the market, especially the many super expensive tech stocks. Of course, our Zombie Stocks got crushed and that portfolio did great. Not surprisingly, a few more Wall Street strategists jumped on the bearish bandwagon. But, do we know if this is it…is it the correction that everyone with a fundamental hair on their head knows is coming, knows we need? I’m going to reveal a few special ideas in this letter: - Trends from our proprietary macro research, usually reserved for our Institutional clients, - The real impact of a Trump presidency on the markets, - The best stocks to buy and sell in this market. About 15 years ago, a very smart client told me that corrections are not caused by valuation or anything related to fundamentals. He said you need a liquidity crunch to catalyze a sustained correction and a bear market. Do you think regulators and politicians have picked up on this idea? Haha! We’ve seen unprecedented liquidity pouring into our markets and economy ever since COVID. Unprecedented. Take a look at Figure 1 and see the huge jump in assets on the Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet when COVID hit. Compare that jump to the one during the housing crisis. It looks 3-4x larger. It appears that regulators and politicians really leaned into the idea of flooding the economy with money during COVID after seeing how well it worked in 2009. Also, note that the excess liquidity pumped into the system in 2009 was never taken out. Quite the opposite, it only went higher before the next big jump during COVID. I think regulators and politicians are liquidity junkies now. They’re hooked like a drug addict on the short-term fix-all for any economic problems: give the economy more money. Figure 1: Total Assets on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Remain Elevated <see full report> Looking at a shorter time frame, we see that the Assets have been coming down this year though not by a lot. We are nowhere near getting back to pre-COVID levels, and I am not confident that we ever will. Looking at a shorter time frame, we see that the Assets have been coming down this year though not by a lot. We are nowhere near getting back to pre-COVID levels, and I am not confident that we ever will. Figure 2: Total Assets on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Are Coming Down <see full report> So, why is the market still going up if the Federal Reserve Bank is reducing its balance sheet? Answer: because the Federal government is putting fiscal stimulus into the economy faster than the Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Figure 3: Federal Debt Has Skyrocketed <see full report> Figure 4 plots the total Federal debt ... the trend for Federal debt is going up at the same rate or faster than what we saw in 2023. https://lnkd.in/gxiZSYB3

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Tail End Capital Partners' contention is that single asset GP-led secondaries (i.e. continuation vehicles) offer the best return potential vs. LP led secondaries or multi asset GP-led secondaries. Why? GP-led transactions are formed around high performing companies where the GP is looking to double down, and the buyer can do deep diligence on the companies to ensure their high quality. Single asset CVs are also de-risked investments because the heavy lifting has been done in the rear view mirror. De-risked but the return profile is similar to buyout returns. Full Article by Priyanka Iyer of SecondaryLink: https://lnkd.in/eXhv5VtN #gpledsecondaries #continuationvehicle #cv #sponsorledsecondary #returnprofile #secondary #secondaries #secondarymarket #liquidity #gp #generalpartner #lp #limitedpartner #continuationfund #pe #privateequity #lmm #lowermiddlemarket #singleassetcontinuationvehicle

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Excited to join industry leaders in LA to explore the future of non-traditional investments. I’ll be speaking at the Private Wealth Southern California Forum, hosted by Markets Group, on 12 November. Together, we’ll discuss how innovations in alternative assets are reshaping the investment landscape. Thank you to Markets Group for providing the platform to explore these transformative developments. #PrivateEquity #Innovation #Technology #Entrepreneurship #VentureCapital #Investing #Finance #Alternatives #Startups #Speaker

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Institutional investors having arbitrary rules can create great opportunities for smaller investors. I inverted Greenblatt's concept of "forced sellers" into "forced buyers" in this post. Check it out: https://lnkd.in/g3VsTBRC

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A good case of glass half full or half empty. The $2tn investment is way short of what is needed to be net zero in coming decades. But, some of the categories like battery storage capacity or solar generation have been growing 100% or more annually for the last 10 year or so. Interesting short read. #Cleanteach #Climatecrisis #Energytransition https://lnkd.in/dAy9P3Jn

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Gold's purchasing power. https://lnkd.in/gC_MFcbA #BullionPMI #Gold #GoldPurchasingPower #ThePowerOfGold #GoldCannotBeHacked #PhysicalAsset #Assets #GoldHistory

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Could Trump Redirect Fed and Monetary Policy to Goldilocks Leaving the Remaining Debt on Off Balance Sheet Principal Only Bank Rumors that the gold standard could be reinstated during Trump’s presidency centered largely on positive comments he made about the idea. Notably, he suggested that it would be “wonderful” to bring back the gold standard, and a number of his advisors were of the same mind — Judy Shelton, John Allison and others supported the concept. With Trump set to run as a 2024 presidential candidate, some are again wondering if he will return the country to the gold standard. Speaking on his War Room podcast, Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist, said he believes Number 45 could ditch the US Federal Reserve and bring back the gold standard in his second term in office.The president of the United States would probably have a hard time firing a Federal Reserve chair over interest rates. The U.S. is on track to spend $870 billion on interest payments this year, more than the $822 billion the nation will spend on defense. One of the greatest challenge is the cost of interest on US debt, in a discussion some brought up non bank interest rate free debt transfer. But nobody is totally sure what would happen if he tried to fire Fed chair. As a legal matter, it has been debated for decades but never tested. And it's a question that would become more than academic if Donald Trump wins this November and then moves to curtail Jerome Powell's independence or even tries to fire him outright. US politicians were successful at stopping the Fed chair from implementing the Basel III bank reserve regulations which would brought greater challenges to CRE investors asset values. The former president has previously claimed he can fire Powell, but legal experts aren't quite so sure.

Looking at the future Let's face it folks The assault on cash has been waged for a very long time now, but over the past few years it’s accelerated into a full-blown war, aided and abetted by a psyop war in Europe, powered with American play-money. It goes like this: Fake a pandemic, create a war, inflate prices and lower or stabilize interest rates to give your savings a death blow. I personally believe we are on the cusp of a 50% drop in the US stock market, before the end of the year. What does this mean, and what are my other predictions that could save you from financial ruin / make you very rich? My senses have been warning me that we may be very close to a major crash/collapse (at least in the US stock and bond markets, which will have ramifications for the world.) My rationale? It has been 15 years since the last major crash in 2008. And, the data is looking eerily similar to 2008 right now right before it began to collapse around this time in 2008 and was nearly 50% lower by the end day in September 2008. Look at the money supply The biggest reason for the upcoming crash, and why no one seems to have any interest in it at all is that every asset in the US has two components that quantify its value. The asset itself. And, then, the other part is the value of the dollar itself. While everyone is fixated on rising prices, no one is watching the real problem: the deflation in money and money supply. We all know the Federal Reserve has been printing trillions of dollars. And, while that was true in 2020 and 2021, the opposite has been the case since the fall of 2022. In fact, the money supply has been shrinking by 10% year-over-year. You’d think, given this, that every economist and financial analyst would be watching the US money supply (which determines the value of the dollar the most over the long term) like a hawk. But, no, most of them have no understanding or interest in it at all and are clueless It has been decades since the money supply has fallen at this rate. At no other point for at least sixty years has the money supply fallen by more than 6% (YoY) in any month. If I am correct, the US stock markets may limp through the summer before slumping in the fall, with my bet being on September for a major collapse.  As well as going down the gold and bitcoin rabbit hole enabling the global reset central planners to enslave the world Profiting during the apocalypse is a tough job, but someone’s gotta do it… and I will show you all in my upcoming blog articles how! Come to the Financial Policy Council https://lnkd.in/eZU2UgYd, be a part of decisions that will shape your future & share your thoughts. Blackhawk Partners, Inc. Brain Expansion Group Hedge Fund Group (HFG) Stanford Silverman Zana Nesheiwat Bret Siarkowski Barry Moniês Omar L. Hamada Vlad Lounegov Tim Kaelin David Clark Karina Benzineb Paul Mourino Tom Ash Antony Ponnaiya PIETRO SAVVIDES Emily Tamilio Albert Mendelsohn Dawood Rajpoot John McSherry

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Great article on page 74 about Josh Allen - one of OnCore's great shareholders and ambassadors!

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