Eugeny(Yevgen) Prudchyenko

Armenia has seen a stronger compression of Eurobond yields since 2022 when compared to CCA peers. This outperformance is especially impressive when assessed against its higher-rated neighbor Georgia. What is driving this? While GDP growth over the last couple of years has been among the best in the world, the latest spurt of economic activity exhibited in the last last couple of quarters has well-defined temporary features, which are already generating an appreciable slowdown in economic momentum. Much more importantly, the external position is Armenia's Achilles' heel. It is the only country in our CCA space that has been steadily hemorrhaging FX reserves over the last two years, chiefly as a result of persistent CA deficits and, more recently, net portfolio outflows presumably related to the defeat in the 3rd Karabakh War. FX reserves cover is also the worst in the region, running at below 3 months of imports of goods and services. In our view, what then explains the Eurobond's outperformance is the perception of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premium. Newly emerging internal challenges to PM Pashinyan have failed to materialize, and the PM looks safe enough to sail through to the 2026 Parliamentary Elections. Armenia's conscientious decision to lower its geopolitical guard vis-a-vis Azerbaijan is also delivering benefits in terms of risk perception. Put simply, we find the market's positive view on Armenia is justified, as the political/geopolitical boon is currently trumping more standard macro challenges. The much lower political and geopolitical risk is ultimately driving Armenian Eurobond outperformance, at least for the Eurobond bond maturing before the 2026 elections. Post-2026, there is likely to be a much wider distribution of risk scenarios given the significant probability that political uncertainty may then join macroeconomic vulnerability.

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Aljazeera, "Encircled by geopolitical risks, Armenia builds a lively tech startup scene,” by John Power, 11/29/2024, https://lnkd.in/ekgvPHZE "The rugged mountains of the southern Caucasus are not an obvious location for a thriving tech startup scene. "Situated 7,000 miles from Silicon Valley, landlocked Armenia is buffeted by geopolitical headwinds from all sides. "To the north and south, respectively, lie Russia and Iran, two of the most heavily sanctioned countries on the planet. "To the east and west, it faces Turkiye and Azerbaijan, adversaries whose relations with Yerevan, respectively, are marked by tensions over the 1915-1916 Armenian genocide and armed conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. "Home to fewer than 3 million people, the ex-Soviet state has an economy that is barely larger than that of poverty-stricken Haiti. "None of that has dampened Armenia’s big ambitions for its tech start-up scene, which is making waves to an extent that belies the country’s diminutive size and difficult circumstances. "The number of IT-focused companies in Armenia more than doubled last year, while the number of employees in the sector increased by 30 percent, according to the Armenian government. "Armenian-founded startups such as Piscart, the creator of a popular photo and video editing app, meanwhile, have found success in Silicon Valley, which founders have in turn used to support offices and jobs back home. "The flow of investment has gone the other way, too, with big-name players such as Nvidia and Adobe in recent years announcing plans to set up operations in the country. "Armenia’s government has been eager to leverage the local scene’s links overseas to boost its profile on the international stage. … "Tech founders in Armenia readily acknowledge that Silicon Valley remains the place to be for fundraising and networking opportunities. "But they say that, increasingly, opportunity beckons at home, too. ... "Armenia’s government says it is committed to doing what it can to make doing business seamless, including simplifying the process of registering a company to the point that it can now be completed in as little as 15 minutes. "Last month, the Ministry of High-Tech Industry introduced legislation, called the New Law on High-Tech Support, to reduce rates of personal income tax and corporate tax for tech start-ups during their formative years. "The government has also allocated 1.940 billion Armenian dram ($5m) to fund the construction of “Engineering City”, a public-private project that is envisaged to include facilities such as an engineering business accelerator, an advanced research centre, and supercomputing and cybersecurity facilities."

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Top posts past week @KleimanIntCon: #Iran-#Israel war footing 60% adult survey blame econ mess; #Turkey #usdtry -13% to 34 YTD; #Israel stock index insurer component +2.5%; #Moldova Prez Sandhu 40% election win; #Myanmar LaborMin force expat worker remit #Laos. Read more: https://lnkd.in/efx4AC-r #emergingmarkets #frontiermarkets #globalinvesting

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As we bid farewell to September, we're strategically positioning ourselves for a promising Q4 in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, October has shown significant potential for crypto assets, and we're prepared to leverage this trend by debunking some crypto myths. 🔍 ✅ Is crypto different than other currency markets? ✅ Is crypto only for criminals? ✅ What is the ZND token? See how Borys Szyc, Janusz Chabior and Wojciech Szczesny answer those questions in our video spot airing now in Polish TV, all over the digital sphere and also supported by fabulous Out-Of-Home creations in major Polish cities. ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eZQhqQ7H

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Armenia: An Ideal Choice for International R&D Thinking of Armenia for your company’s R&D hub? Here’s why it’s an increasingly popular choice: 1. Highly Skilled Talent  With 30% of graduates in STEM fields and 20% annual growth in tech, Armenia offers a skilled workforce ready to drive innovation. (World Bank) 2. Global Diaspora  Armenia’s diaspora spans 100+ countries, creating a strong network for global business and R&D partnerships. 3. High Cultural Values, Low Crime  Known for family values and one of the lowest crime rates in the region, Armenia provides a safe, community-focused environment for ethical business. 4. Attractive Tax Incentives  With a 0% profit tax for new tech startups, Armenia offers one of the most competitive tax regimes for foreign investment. (OECD) 5. Sustainability Focus  Committed to a greener future, Armenia aims to increase renewable energy use by 30% by 2025, aligning with global ESG standards. Armenia combines talent, values, international reach, and pro-business policies, making it a strong choice for your next R&D center. #Armenia #Innovation #ResearchAndDevelopment #GlobalBusiness #Sustainability #TechTalent

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#notoracism #notofascism But what does the world do about it… Act: Individuals in the United States can influence their local government to condemn and prevent the recurrence of genocide through a variety of actions: 1. **Educate yourself and others**: Stay informed about the warning signs and stages of genocide, as well as the history of past genocides. This knowledge can help you recognize the early signs and take appropriate action. 2. **Engage in advocacy**: Support organizations and initiatives that work towards preventing genocide and promoting peace. Encourage your local government to prioritize these issues and support international efforts like the United Nations and the International Criminal Court. 3. **Monitor and report**: Keep an eye on local and global events, and report any signs of potential genocide to the appropriate authorities or organizations. 4. **Be an ally**: Stand up against hate speech and discrimination in your community. This can involve supporting marginalized groups, challenging stereotypes, and promoting dialogue and understanding. 5. **Support survivors**: Help support survivors of genocide by donating to organizations that provide aid and assistance to those affected. 6. **Promote peace, understanding, and respect**: Encourage a culture of respect and understanding for all people within your community.

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6/28/2024, Plainfield NJ Upstart: How China Became a Great Power - July 1, 2024 by Oriana Skylar Mastro (Author) Oriana Skylar Mastro $29.99 336 pages Oxford University Press https://a.co/d/05IoWZnf Oriana Skylar Mastro's "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power" offers a fresh and insightful perspective on China's rapid ascent to great power status over the past three decades. The book presents a compelling argument that China's rise was not simply a matter of copying established powers, but rather a strategic blend of emulation, exploitation, and entrepreneurship on the global stage. Mastro introduces the concept of the "upstart strategy," which she argues allowed China to build power and influence from a weaker resource position within an international system dominated by the United States. This approach, determined by where and how China chose to compete, enabled the country to grow economically, politically, and militarily without triggering a catastrophic international backlash that could have impeded its progress. The author's research is particularly noteworthy for its use of elite interviews, granular data, and authoritative Chinese sources to support her thesis[4]. This methodological rigor lends credibility to her arguments and provides readers with a well-substantiated analysis of China's strategic choices. One of the book's strengths is its examination of the factors that influenced Beijing's strategic decisions. Mastro delves into the complex interplay of domestic and international considerations that shaped China's approach to power accumulation. This nuanced analysis helps readers understand the rationale behind China's actions on the global stage. The book also offers valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in the United States. By explaining the unique nature of China's rise, Mastro provides guidance on how the U.S. can maintain a competitive edge in the new era of great power competition. This practical application of her research enhances the book's relevance beyond academic circles. "Upstart" challenges conventional wisdom about power accumulation in international politics. By drawing parallels with the business world, Mastro offers a novel framework for understanding how rising powers can navigate the existing international order. This interdisciplinary approach adds depth to her analysis and makes the book accessible to a wider audience. While the book's focus on China's strategic choices is its primary strength, some readers might wish for a more in-depth exploration of the potential long-term consequences of China's rise. Additionally, a more extensive comparison with historical cases of rising powers could have further contextualized China's unique approach. #Upstart #PlainfieldNJ Upstart: How China Became a Great Power | A Conversation with Oriana Skylar Mastro https://lnkd.in/ebKhzCBb

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Our new guide provides insights into #investment opportunities in #Armenia's #diamond and #jewelry industry. This guide is essential for individuals and investors interested in this field. #EnterpriseArmenia #investinArmenia

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NYC & Nasdaq should be the premier destination for global tech IPOs. But Why? I sat down with Mikhail Lomtadze, CEO of Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI), a $24 billion behemoth traded on the Nasdaq and the leading tech platform in Kazakhstan. - Interestingly, Kaspi IPOd in the London Stock Exchange in 2020, but decided to move to Nasdaq three years later -The US market is much deeper and more liquid, and has allowed for 20x greater trading volumes compared to LSE - The US market has provided Kaspi access to a much wider pool of sophisticated investors who understand their business model - A successful IPO on Nasdaq gives a tech company a "quality stamp" and validates their business model anywhere in the world Links to full Fintech Leaders episode ⤵⤵⤵ Substack: https://bit.ly/3z7UGF6   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/4evnszN Apple: https://apple.co/3VMXjVu Youtube: https://bit.ly/3VPjR8s

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An American venture capital fund invests in a Ukrainian developer of anti-drone systems. The Green Flag Ventures Capital Fund of American entrepreneur Justin Ziff and his business partner Deborah Fairlamb, specializing in investment into Ukrainian defense startups, announced an investment in Karadag Technologies, a Ukrainian anti-UAV and electronic warfare systems developer. Karadag addresses one of the most pressing challenges in modern warfare: the threat posed by unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Their flagship products detect, track, jam, and neutralize enemy drones with unparalleled precision. This investment will allow Karadag to meet existing demand and satisfy a growing international market. Details of the deal were not disclosed. The global counter-UAV market is forecast to exceed $10.5B by 2030, and Karadag is well-positioned to meet both current and future demand. Collaboration with Green Flag Ventures is a key moment for Karadag. It allows us to scale our operations, improve our technology, and expand our influence in both the military and civilian sectors – all over the world,” the company said. One of Karadag’s products is the Obriy drone detector, which notifies users of a drone’s approach from 2.5 to 4 kilometers away.

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Introduction: The Holy Land of Armenia. Background: World’s First Christians’. Armenia is a landlocked country in Southwestern Asia or Eurasia. It is situated at the gateway between Western Asia and Eastern Europe and is bordered by Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, and Turkey. Located in the Lesser Caucasus Mountains, Armenia is a mountainous region with fast-flowing rivers. Geography: Area total : 29,743 sq km land: 28,203 sq km water: 1,540 sq km Climate: highland continental, hot summers, cold winters Natural resources small deposits of gold, copper, molybdenum, zinc, bauxite People and Society: Population: total: 2,976,765 Ethnic groups: Armenian 98.1%, Yezidi 1.1%, other 0.8% (2022 est.) Languages: Armenian (official) 97.9%, Kurmanji (spoken by Yezidi minority) 1%, other 1.1%; note - Russian is widely spoken (2011 est.) Religions: Armenian Apostolic Christian 95.2%, other Christian 1.6%, other 0.9%, none 0.6%, unspecified 1.7% (2022 est.) Population growth rate: -0.42% (2024 est.) Government type: parliamentary democracy; note - constitutional changes adopted in December 2015 transformed the government to a parliamentary system Capital: name: Yerevan Executive branch: chief of state: President Vahagn KHACHATURYAN (since 13 March 2022) head of government: Prime Minister Nikol PASHINYAN (since 10 September 2021) Legislative branch: summary: unicameral National Assembly (107 seats) Diplomatic representation in the US chief of mission: Ambassador Lilit MAKUNTS (since 15 September 2021) Diplomatic representation from the US chief of mission: Ambassador Kristina A. KVIEN (since 21 February 2023) Economy Economic overview EEU-and CIS-member state but seeking more EU and US trade; business-friendly growth environments; stable monetary regime but vulnerable demand economy; key copper and gold exporter; persistent unemployment; large diaspora and remittances Real GDP (purchasing power parity) $57.728 billion (2023 est.) $53.108 billion (2022 est.) $47.165 billion (2021 est.) Real GDP per capita $20,800 (2023 est.) $19,100 (2022 est.) $16,900 (2021 est.) Exports $14.13 billion (2023 est.) $10.038 billion (2022 est.) $5.012 billion (2021 est.) Exports - partners Russia 41%, UAE 9%, China 7%, Georgia 4%, Switzerland 4% (2022) Exports - commodities copper ore, gold, diamonds, tobacco, iron alloys (2022) Imports $14.279 billion (2023 est.) $10.186 billion (2022 est.) $6.12 billion (2021 est.) Imports - partners Russia 23%, UAE 19%, China 10%, Georgia 5%, Iran 5% (2022) Imports - commodities postage stamps/documents, cars, broadcasting equipment, refined petroleum, natural gas (2022) Flag: Three equal horizontal bands of red (top), blue, and orange; the color red recalls the blood shed for liberty, blue the Armenian skies as well as hope, and orange the land and the courage of the workers who farm it. Last updated: Tuesday, November 19, 2024

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Top posts past week @KleimanIntCon: #IsraelIranWar rial +25,000 to 615,000/$; #Iran missile barrage #Israel rial 610,000/$; #Tajikistan 2027 bond high 90s, 8.5% yield, +7% 6 mo; #Ethiopia-#Eritrea belligerent risk after previous ally; #Israel shekel -1% to 3.75/$. Read more: https://lnkd.in/efx4AC-r #EmergingMarkets #frontiermarkets

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Noubar Afeyan's call made today: "Here is the Armenian tragedy: Even as we mourn the past, history is repeating itself. Armenians are once again the target of ethnic cleansing, political leaders are unlawfully held as hostages, and the country of Armenia faces existential threats to its sovereignty and self-determination.  Three years ago, President Biden became the first U.S. president to officially recognize what is often called the “forgotten genocide” of 1915, joining dozens of other nations and global organizations. But what’s the value of acknowledging forced migration and death if we allow the same events to happen again? “Armenian genocide” isn’t a slogan—it’s a real, desperate threat. Today, we must do more than mourn the massacres of the past. It’s time to step up to prevent the massacres of the future". For full text: https://lnkd.in/d-JbWezV Noubar Afeyan is a co-founder and Cahirman of the biotechnology company Moderna. Noubar Afeyan is a self made billionaire and his net worth is estimated at $1.4 billion. Mr. Afeyan is also a lecturer at Harvard Business School.

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Zartonk Media, "Top U.S. & Armenian Generals Meet In Washington D.C., Discuss Defense Cooperation & Regional Security,” 10/17/2024, https://lnkd.in/eAYw64qw "U.S. General Charles Q. Brown Jr., Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, praised growing U.S.-Armenia military ties and emphasized the importance of countering Russia’s “malign influence in the region” during his meeting with Armenia’s top general, Lieutenant General Edward Asryan, in Washington D.C. late Wednesday. "General Brown expressed gratitude to Armenia’s First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the Army’s General Staff for the productive military cooperation between the U.S. and Armenia, reaffirming the significance of strengthening their defense relationship, according to Joint Staff Spokesman Jereal Dorsey. "Additionally, the military leaders discussed Armenia’s military modernization initiatives, and Gen. Brown offered U.S. support for these efforts through the State Partnership Program and additional training opportunities. The Chairman also expressed concern about Russia’s malignant influence in the region and the need to counter them, Dorsey added in a brief statement. "Armenia’s Defense Ministry (MoD) did not mention Russia in its readout of the talks. Instead, it emphasized that “the two sides discussed topics of mutual interest, acknowledging the continued development of Armenia-U.S. defense cooperation. The importance of sustaining joint activities was underscored, and a range of issues related to regional security were also addressed.”"

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