Eric Higgs

It’s All in the Guidance At SGG and Associates, we are in the home stretch of our review of the quarterly performance reports of 250 consumer facing companies that we cover and are competing for share of the consumer’s spend, loyalty and “mindset”. The combined impact of inflation and a consumer “reset” in purchase behavior and created tremendous shifts across multiple industry sectors. The Home Furnishings and Furniture sector, and Department Stores have all been affected negatively. The aspirational Luxury sector has slowed. What should we expect for the rest of the year? It’s all in the Guidance provided by the businesses themselves. Here’s a snapshot of full year Fiscal 2024 performance estimates: In Apparel, numerous Retailers and Brands have turned a corner and/or lapping prior year declines. Examples of full year positive Net Sales Guidance includes Abercrombie & Fitch +10%, American Eagle Outfitters +2 to 4%, Aritzia +8 to 12%, Birkenstock +20%, Crocs brand +7 to 9%, Deckers (led by Hoka) +10%, Guess 11 to 13%, Oxford Industries 4 to 6%, Sketchers 8 to 10%, and Steve Madden 11 to 13%. In Beauty, a consumer focus on “self” and “wellness” is driving significant growth for several Brands: Beiersdorf (Nivea) +6 to 8%, e.l.f 20 to 22%, Inter Parfums +10%. Guidance in the Fitness / Sports sectors is quite mixed. But those forecasting full year growth include Acushunet       ( Foot Joy) and Calloway 3 to 5%, Asics 3.4%, Dick’s 2 to 3%, Adidas, Nike and Puma all forecast growth at mid to high-single-digit rates.  ON Running continues to outperform, forecasting +30% for the year. While Lululemon Comps have slowed, they still forecast an ambitious +11 to 12% growth. The Off-Price sector, which has had a non-stop growth trajectory, is continuing to forecast growth for this year, however, at a more tempered pace. Guidance for comparable growth this year: Burlington +0 to 2%, Ollie’s +1 to 2%, Ross Stores +2 to 3%, and TJX +2 to 3%. Overall, the Retail Sector is forecast by the NRF to grow  2.5% and 3.5% in 2024. That forecast means that while there will be plenty of winners and outperformers, as we’ve described, but they will be balanced by a significant number of underperformers as well.  

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It’s All in the Guidance At SGG and Associates, we are in the home stretch of our review of the quarterly performance reports of 250 consumer facing companies that we cover and are competing for share of the consumer’s spend, loyalty and “mindset”. The combined impact of inflation and a consumer “reset” in purchase behavior and created tremendous shifts across multiple industry sectors. The Home Furnishings and Furniture sector, and Department Stores have all been affected negatively. The aspirational Luxury sector has slowed. What should we expect for the rest of the year? It’s all in the Guidance provided by the businesses themselves. Here’s a snapshot of full year Fiscal 2024 performance estimates: In Apparel, numerous Retailers and Brands have turned a corner and/or lapping prior year declines. Examples of full year positive Net Sales Guidance includes Abercrombie & Fitch +10%, American Eagle Outfitters +2 to 4%, Aritzia +8 to 12%, Birkenstock +20%, Crocs brand +7 to 9%, Deckers (led by Hoka) +10%, Guess 11 to 13%, Oxford Industries 4 to 6%, Sketchers 8 to 10%, and Steve Madden 11 to 13%. In Beauty, a consumer focus on “self” and “wellness” is driving significant growth for several Brands: Beiersdorf (Nivea) +6 to 8%, e.l.f 20 to 22%, Inter Parfums +10%. Guidance in the Fitness / Sports sectors is quite mixed. But those forecasting full year growth include Acushunet       ( Foot Joy) and Calloway 3 to 5%, Asics 3.4%, Dick’s 2 to 3%, Adidas, Nike and Puma all forecast growth at mid to high-single-digit rates.  ON Running continues to outperform, forecasting +30% for the year. While Lululemon Comps have slowed, they still forecast an ambitious +11 to 12% growth. The Off-Price sector, which has had a non-stop growth trajectory, is continuing to forecast growth for this year, however, at a more tempered pace. Guidance for comparable growth this year: Burlington +0 to 2%, Ollie’s +1 to 2%, Ross Stores +2 to 3%, and TJX +2 to 3%. Overall, the Retail Sector is forecast by the NRF to grow  2.5% and 3.5% in 2024. That forecast means that while there will be plenty of winners and outperformers, as we’ve described, but they will be balanced by a significant number of underperformers as well.  

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Great leaders provide learnings that stay with you. Here is one such leader for me.

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It’s All About The Experience At SGG and Associates, we are well into Q1 Earnings Season and our review of the 250 consumer facing companies that are competing for share of the consumer spend, loyalty and “mindset”. Especially striking is the extraordinary and growing divide between Walmart and Target. Walmart U.S. Comp Sales (x Fuel) were +3.8% while Target Total Comp Sales declined 3.7% There is no question that both retailers have broad appeal and audiences and offered a sense of value.  But their approaches to the consumer have dramatically changed. Target was always known as the “cool” big box store, with incredible designer capsule collections that created lines before store opening and sold out immediately. Walmart built their following on the promise of “always low prices” and incredible value. Their roles have changed dramatically.  Target just announced thousands of price cuts in their recent earnings report, a clear nod to the impact inflation has had on their customers, and an attempt to reverse their sales trend. A trip through Target will illuminate their almost complete shift to private labels. Walmart has introduced a balance of designer and private label brands. In their pilot “stores of the future” concept, these brands are showcased in “shops” complete with lifestyle presentations. Newness is continuously introduced into these stores. This concept test has worked and Walmart is now rolling the concept out nationally. But even more striking is the dramatic difference between Walmart and Target in the “customer experience”. At a recent visit to a newer Target store, we were greeted by an expansion of categories that were locked behind glass doors. This included everything from laundry detergent to Men’s socks and underwear. Pressing a red button on the case would supposedly summon an associate.. who never came. During the same week at several Walmart stores, associates were folding inventory, and refreshing displays. And, when asked about the location of a department, associates ( on numerous occasions) escorted us to the correct aisle. Indeed, it’s no wonder that Walmart Doug McMillon reported in last week’s earnings report that Walmart gains were coming from higher income customer. It’s not just about price.. it’s about creating a comprehensive and compelling customer experience that includes price, presentation and service. 

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Very impressive results from Walmart last quarter: Walmart this morning reported that its third quarter total revenue was $169.6 billion, up 5.5 percent from $160.8 billion during the same period a year ago. Operating income for the period was up 8.2 percent to $6.7 billion. Same store sales for the period at Walmart's US stores were up 5.3 percent, while Sam's Club same store sales were up seven percent, and Walmart International sales were up 12.4 percent. Walmart's e-commerce sales were up a whopping 27 percent globally. The retailer's global advertising business was up 28 percent, including Walmart Connect in the US, which was up 26 percent.

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Walmart needs to be careful and not lose focus on their main business engine. See more below: MediaPost has a story about how Walmart "is poised to become a non-retail powerhouse." Not that its retail business is taking a back seat to its other initiatives, but the story says that a new report from Deutsche Bank says that Walmart is "gathering steam from alternative value streams, which are boosting revenue and pumping up profits. Specifically, Walmart is doing well in five pools of opportunity within the ecommerce world, including Walmart Connect, its retail media network, membership fees, marketplace transactions, fulfillment services, and data monetization." Advertising, MediaPost writes, "is a significant component" - a $3.4 billion business growing as much as 25 percent annually and contributing 70 percent to margin. Krisztina Katai, an analyst who follows Walmart for Deutsche Bank, writes in an investment letter that management has defined these five new value streams as "key drivers in the underlying transformation of the business."

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***NEW ARTICLE*** After more than two decades of navigating the complexities of leadership across various industries & brands, I’ve come to realize a profound truth: the key to effective leadership comes down to one character trait: self-awareness. 👇🏻 https://lnkd.in/eCWGhUec

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"Let’s face it: consumers are more educated than ever, and with price comparison at their fingertips, they’re also savvier than ever, heightening their expectations to get exactly what they want – and at the best price available,” says Advantage Solutions Michael Taylor in his latest @Forbes piece.    Michael dives into the opportunities and challenges of serving today’s discerning #shoppers. He emphasizes the need for retailers and brands to embrace multicultural influences and adventurous flavor profiles, cater to the diverse tastes of modern consumers, and leverage design, form and function to enhance product appeal.     Highly recommend taking a read for some actionable strategies for staying ahead in a competitive market. Great piece, Michael!    #RetailInnovation #ConsumerTrends #LeadershipInsights #ConsumerBehavior

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Follow with excellence.   A lovefest was on display at SEC media days for former Alabama Coach Nick Saban.   Kirby Smart, Georgia Head Coach, thanked the coach for his leadership. Steve Sarkisian, Texas Head Coach, talked about how much Saban taught him about discipline. Lane Kiffin, Head Coach at Ole Miss, talked about how Saban made him into the coach he is today.   Each of the coaches path to the head coaching position was paved with following with excellence. Strive to follow with excellence.   Be passionately behind your leader. If you can’t do this, change buses. But, most of the time, the bus isn’t what needs to be changed. The easy road is to point out flaws, why one disagrees, maybe how a different decision would have been made. The goal may not be division, but the result is. Great followers are naturally humble. Great followers are naturally loyal. Great followers are naturally "all in." Great followers are naturally drawn to unity. Great followers are the people that make the culture, the company, the team. They rally others.   Great followers are a gift. They impact others to do the same. Leadership isn't defined by a position. Great followers are already great leaders. A unified house is built by great followers. A unified house does not fall.

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The energy at Advantage Solutions has been electric as we roll out our reimagined brand. This isn’t just a new logo or color palette (though we’re pretty excited about those, too!) It’s about embracing the full scope of who we are today: #TeamADV. From sharpening our business intelligence to mastering the art of brand and retail execution, we’re more aligned than ever.   We’re also reimagining how products come to life on the shelf and online and weaving it all together with top-notch omnichannel and experiential marketing. Here’s to the next chapter of innovation, collaboration and, yes, a lot more fun along the way!

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After a couple down years for some key hardware segments, things are looking up for 2024 and beyond. The latest report from the Consumer Technology Association shows hardware representing $341B in value last year alone - and projecting growth in 2024. Everything related to hardware is also tracking UP - gaming, video, smart home, audio, health & fitness - which makes quality hardware more important. Personally, I think your TV is the most important piece of quality hardware you need for your home. Agree? I’m headed to the CTA CEO Summit in Sweden next week to talk to some amazing leaders about the future of tech – and I’m sure we’ll discuss what this growth means for innovation. Will report back!

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Survey says: AI isn’t just for big business, and small/medium businesses are leveraging it to help employees work smarter, not replace them. As we celebrate National Small Business Week, we shared insights from our recent Cox Business survey which aimed to uncover how small business owners and employees are navigating today’s dynamic landscape and harnessing the power of artificial intelligence. Check out the details here: https://lnkd.in/eagm-cQx

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💡 The Often-Overlooked Key to Business Growth: Culture. I've seen it firsthand - the most inspiring companies I've worked with share one thing in common: a vibrant culture. According to a recent @SpencerStuart report, Culture is now the top concern for CEOs. In today's fast-changing landscape, building and maintaining a strong culture is the bedrock of a resilient brand.

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My comments on Marketing Technology Utilization based on the lates The CMO Survey:

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Another consolidation event in the CPG brokerage industry... 🙄 As brands today are seeking high-value strategic broker partners who can provide significant customer expertise and more importantly the ability and the capacity to deliver on expectations, we continue to see the large national brokerage firms march down the path of consolidation - a direction that over the last decade has proven to push brands *away* from this model and towards more customer-focused, best-in-market brokers. I, for one, welcome our consolidated broker overlords.... One thing I know for certain is that brands want (and need) a broker they can trust; a partner that can help solve pain-points and remove the obstacles impeding their growth - a broker that will fight for their business everyday as if it were their own. but what do I know 🤷‍♂️

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BIG UPDATE! It was 16 years ago when Josh Shaw asked me to join him in starting his company idea for the consumer brand, MISSION. Together, along with the most incredible team, MISSION has now become the undisputed leader in Heat Health & Safety in the United States, partnering with worlds most elite professional athletes like Serena Williams, Dwyane Wade, and Drew Brees, the worlds most elite industrial athletes like UPS delivery drivers worldwide, and everyone in between. What an incredible journey it has been. I will be stepping out of my role at MISSION, but staying close as a Co-Founder and Senior Advisor. My work at MISSION uncovered some unfortunate realities. Heat is the #1 weather related killer in the United States, more than hurricanes and tornados combined, costs the US Economy over $100 Billion in losses per year, and is the #1 exertion-related killer amongst laborers (#3 overall). Hispanic workers are 91% more likely to die of heat related injuries. Believe me when I tell you, MISSION is only just getting started. My years of experience as an entrepreneur, operator, and leader in the consumer and industrial industries alongside our country’s hardest workers have brought into focus the valuable lessons about the American spirit of determination, grit, and leadership, and how these values form the backbone of our security and prosperity as a nation. I believe these are values worth investing in, as does the incredible team at SideKick Operators, where I’ll be joining as President. SideKick is a collective of Founders, Operators, and Leaders, with deep roots in the commercial and industrial sectors, who combined our years of on-the-ground experience into a Family Investment Office. United by core values, and a shared purpose, we've helped propel our Partner companies to exceptional values, impacting thousands of lives, families, and communities along the way, and making an economic impact that will last generations. My purpose is to serve our partners and highlight the incredible service and leadership our workers provide to our country, and return that service by investing in the values-based leaders and businesses that are ready to grow, hire, create, inspire, and leave a legacy of impact for generations to come. I would love for you to learn more about who we are at www.SideKickOperators.com #weareyou #onamission Lili Gil Valletta Phil Miner Justin Steen Chris Galvan Shawn Koval Scott Odom

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Is anyone else excited about the holiday catalog season? There's something relaxing and nostalgic about flipping through the annual Nieman's holiday catalog pages or watching my kids stop arguing long enough to circle everything they want in the Target Holiday mailer. And while my shopping mode of choice is online, I will absolutely take a moment to look at the catalogs laying in that stack of mail and use it to decide which dot-com site to visit-click-buy from first! Looks like I'm not the only one that feels this way. A Harvard Business Review study saw a 49% lift in sales and a 125% increase in inquiries from those customers receiving both email and catalog mailers. I'm sure there's a whole host of marketers out there digesting that data and building it into their 2025 marketing plans as I type this. I look forward to seeing the evolution of the catalog and how it helps build brands and retailers in the age of all things digital and e-commerce. So how do you feel about catalogs and commerce? Love it or hate it? Share your comments below. https://lnkd.in/ghZrqQFB

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Interesting difference in the dominant reason for marketing spending being impacted for CMO's of B2B vs. B2C, especially as it relates to corporate performance being the primary driver. What do you think might be missing from this list?

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In this WD Partners POV, we explore how DICK'S Sporting Goods has embraced innovation to stay ahead in a rapidly changing retail landscape. From redefining the in-store experience to meeting evolving customer needs, there's much to learn from their approach. Check it out! #ecosystem #experiencestrategy #retailinnovation

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