Elmira Bayrasli

You will NOT want to miss this week's episode on The Washington Outsider #Report on Coalition Radio with the Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune and former career Foreign Service Officer Robert Silverman. The explosive discussion was inspired by Robert's recent article for #JST, advocating the designation of the #MuslimBrotherhood as a terrorist organization... an idea that has been tried before and never quite made it to the finish line. In this episode we will discuss: - Who or what is the #MuslimBrotherhood... - Its historic and ideological influences... - The conveniently forgotten or virtually unknown involvement of the Brotherhood forces alongside Nasser's army in #Egypt during #Israel's War of Independence in 1948... - The Muslim Brotherhood's social and political role in the United States... - What would it take to get a designation, legally and politically - Why all past such efforts have failed... - What happens to those who tried... - What's different this time? Why is it a good time to reconsider and to revisit this option? - What are some of the old and new obstacles, and how to overcome? - Has the October 7 Al Aqsa Flood Operation changed some hearts & minds on the direction of the Muslim Brotherhood? - Can the Brotherhood be reconsidered as an organized crime enterpries? And last but certainly not least... - What has changed our guest's mind on the issue? Why has Robert Joel Silverman from being an opponent of this track become an advocate? ... Tune in and you won't regret it!!! #Islamism #Islamists #lobby #Lobbying #Lobbyists #military #security #defense #antisemitism #MiddleEast #arabworld #thegulf #GCC #KSA #SaudiArabia #Egyt #NorthAfrica #Africa #Gaza #Hamas #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #military #security #defense #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics #Intelligence #counterintelligence #lawandorder #societyandculture

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How can we use Artificial Intelligence for strengthening democracy and transparency and outreach of our institutions? What needs to be done to boost citizen engagement and structured deliberative processes now in this political environment? We got together in the Network for Participation & Deliberation in Europe in Strasbourg upon invitation of the Council of Europe and exchanged practices, analyses (OECD's upcoming study on AI and citizen participation), make.org' presentation of Panoramic.ai and case studies (Baden-Wuerttemberg's impressive structural and practical advances in the field establishing an agency accompanying legislative proposals and academic evaluation) and looked into developing awareness raising measures in 2025 as a network. For the European Committee of the Regions, we could discuss plans of capacity building for the Young Elected Politicians for 2025 (another winter school with webinar and follow up) as well as the network of European councillors and how to link the local efforts to the European debate with the colleagues from the other institutions and organisations European Commission, OECD - OCDE, FIDE - Europe,Bertelsmann Stiftung, Deutscher Bundestag, Council of Europe, @Joint Research Centre, @Polish Sejm, @make.org. Many thanks to the host, in particular @Cornelia Perle from the Council of Europe and organisers Christian Huesmann, @Anna Renkamp and Dr. Angela Jain from Bertelsmann Stiftung and Yves Dejaeghere and Dr. Nabila Abbas from FIDE - Europe for the amazing work and the drive for this network. #YoungElectedLeaders #Democracy #Artificial Intelligence

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✏️ “The focus on immediate military objectives meant that long-term infrastructure projects and governance reforms were deprioritized. This oversight prevented the establishment of robust institutions necessary for a stable and self-sufficient Afghanistan”… In my latest article for LPI, I assess NATO’s nation-building failures in Afghanistan, and argue that counterinsurgency operations should be driven by ‘bottom-up’ rather than ‘top-down’ strategies. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/ddYC7it6

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Check out my latest Religion & Global Affairs newsletter. I break down the recent Pew Research Center report on religion and highlight areas of concern and possibilities. https://lnkd.in/dWkibfgE

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I appreciated the opportunity to attend the Biden-Harris Administration's launch of its new global development strategy. You can read the new strategy for yourself (link below) but I wanted to highlight a few things that stood out to me: -- A return to focusing on poverty alleviation and economic growth -- Samantha Power's choice to highlight the cost effectiveness of programs and investments in USAID's office of the chief economist -- Continued focus on locally-led development and open recognition that 10% of foreign assistance to local organizations is both a big improvement and still very low -- A laudable focus on investing in human capital including youth -- Appropriately high focus on public private partnerships, the need to leverage more private capital, and the importance of digital development https://lnkd.in/ed-SFVWb

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Anne Applebaum's Auatocracy In: Today, we face not an alliance but an axis of autocracies – China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and kindred spirits across Asia, Africa and the Americas.  The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is seen by some as the Eurasian counter to NATO while the recently expanded BRICS is portrayed as the ‘global majority’ response to the G7. China and Russia declared their ‘no limits’ partnership in 2022. At their Washington summit this June, NATO labeled China a ‘decisive enabler’ of the Russian campaign in Ukraine. Russia also benefits from Iranian-made drones and North Korean-made armaments. The autocracies share weapons, technologies and ‘best practices’ in surveillance, governance, propaganda, and narratives based on ‘Big Lies’. For a real-time example, look to what is happening in Venezuela. To better understand how we got into this mess read Anne Applebaum’s briskly brilliant Autocracy, Inc. The Dictators Who Want to Run the World. Be warned, however, it’s a depressing chronicle of greed, power and Western naiveté.

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I recently shared my insights @Arisenews about this critical issue: Does U.S. policy inadvertently fuel the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The ongoing tensions in Gaza and Lebanon demand urgent attention.   #USPolicy #GlobalConflict #InternationalCooperation #PeaceAndJustice #AriseNews #ConstanceIkokwu #JournalismMatters #NewsAnalysis #MiddleEastPeace #GlobalLeadership  #DRconstanceikokwuinsights

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The dear reader will know that I respect the insights of Peggy Noonan. Below is her take on journalism. And although she does not make the analogy, her plea for America’s journalism is the same as our plea for America’s universities: keep the main thing the main thing, use your freedom of conscience to pursue truth. Professors and journalists are in the business of equipping our citizens to think, and act, responsibly—about any issue—as individuals living in community. They do so by telling an honest story, providing different perspectives to better understand truth, in order to do life better. From the article: “The purpose of journalism is to get the story and tell the story…What a serious purpose that is, to leave people less encased in themselves. All that is the purpose of journalism, forever and now. It is what a newspaper is for, to serve the public by finding out what’s really going on in all sectors and telling them, clearly… And the great thing for newspapers is if you get the story—if you are known to get the story, like the Washington Post in the Watergate years—you will be read. Because you will be needed. And if you are needed people will pay for you. If you are just following along with some agenda, you will be read by those who share that agenda, but no one else. And readership will plummet… It is good and worthy and necessary to have reporters and editors who come from different experiences, different classes, different cultural assumptions. But current ways of encouraging diversity seem to yield a great sameness in terms of class and viewpoint, and in any case diversity is a mission within a mission, it isn’t the mission itself, which is: Get the story, tell the story.” https://lnkd.in/ehWGvtiH

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Another insightful 🤔 debate at The Debate Daily: Is US Democracy for Sale? 🇺🇸 💰 Today, Sofiya P. explores the role of money in influencing US democracy, considering arguments on campaign regulation and donor influence, among other factors from both sides of the debate 🗣 Other updates: What's-on-Earth-is-Going-on: Hezbollah's Communications Explode 💣 One Key Headline: Instagram Updates Safety for Teenage Users 📲 #democracy #debate #uspolitics #middleeast #instagram

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This week in SitRep: The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election will have profound consequences for the major crises roiling the globe today. Most immediately, here’s what the election could mean for the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. https://lnkd.in/ePihpdPy

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Thrilled to participate in a strategic scenario planning exercise on "China in 2030" with experts from Australia, India, Japan, and the United States a few weeks ago. Key takeaways from our report below: 1) China’s perceptions matter. What Beijing sees is what the world gets, and its leadership’s perceptions will ultimately matter more than any objective reality about its strategic circumstances. At the same time, it is getting harder to know how China views the world. This will complicate assessments. 2) Resilience over growth. China’s leaders are expected to prioritize resilience over economic growth as a long-term objective. This does not mean that growth will be irrelevant. But technological and economic self-reliance will be the key metric that shapes Xi Jinping and the Politburo’s outlook on China’s economic development and security. 3) Cohesion curbs aggression. On balance, China’s perception of a strong countervailing coalition is likely to deter some aggressive actions. This will not mean that tensions will subside entirely, but that they will be easier to manage if actors who share similar concerns are able to consult and coordinate.

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The evolution of the Democratic Party's values from the era of John F. Kennedy to the current progressive stance showcased by figures like Kamala Harris reflects significant changes in American politics over the decades. During JFK's time, the party emphasized a blend of strong defense, economic growth through capitalism, and modest social reforms, including tax cuts and civil rights advocacy. This ethos shifted with the Great Society programs under Lyndon Johnson, extending social safety nets such as Medicare and Medicaid. Subsequent decades saw Democrats adapting to economic changes and conservative trends, leading to the adoption of centrist policies during the Clinton era, which combined free-market capitalism with welfare. The aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis propelled a leftward movement, marked by figures like President Obama and Bernie Sanders advocating for increased government intervention, notably in healthcare. In the current landscape, leaders like Kamala Harris champion policies focused on universal healthcare, climate action, and economic socialism. This shift signifies a move towards wealth redistribution, enhanced government oversight, and systemic reforms within the Democratic Party.

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I published a paper recently with the The Jamestown Foundation about a network of "news" websites that mimic the formatting of The New York Times and Politico. Despite having extensive online bios, some of the reporters for  the websites do not exist, and their photos bear the hallmarks of being generated by a dated AI technology used in PRC campaigns like Spamouflage. The websites publish a variety of stories on international news, and link to a broader network of dozens of sites appealing to local readerships across the US, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Interspersed among their stories  are lengthy pieces echoing Beijing's preferred narratives on topics such as advancements in PRC military technology, human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and United Front work. Most surprisingly, prominent news organizations including Newsweek, the Defense Post, and the Daily Mail have linked to, cited and quoted "reporters" from these websites, despite the fact that the reporters do not exist and appear to be AI-generated. My research shows how easily manipulated information can spread: https://lnkd.in/e9nYnSB9

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Hear, hear

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A lot of people are talking about AI. A lot of agencies are announcing big plans and visions for the future. But what about now? What about today?? In April, my team quietly rolled-out a capability at the U.S. Department of State called NORTHSTAR. No press conferences. No parades. No vaporware promises. Just a lot of hard work and a big vision: Build a capability from the ground up that provides more than 100k users with global situational awareness in 200+ countries and 100+ languages and put AI and advanced analytics at the fingertips of every user. How do things look two months in? At Friday's AI conference, Secretary of State Blinken called NORTHSTAR "an incredible tool" and CDO Matt Graviss called it "a fantastic innovation." Great praise for sure, but what about tangible results? NORTHSTAR saves tons of time and money. Under Secretary Liz Allen said NORTHSTAR will save 180,000 hours of labor next year in State’s public diplomacy family alone, and Ambassador Eric Garcetti said it "freed up about 80 to 90 percent of time for our officers." I couldn't be prouder of my team for the incredible work they've done transforming our big vision into game-changing reality. With more than 200 epics in the backlog, we have a lot more work to do. https://lnkd.in/ejdh5Tgn #mission

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Flagging Federal Registry notice seems akin to tuning into a Congressional Roll Call on C-SPAN, but this is the State Department’s attempt to lean on the #privatesector, #academia, and #thinktanks by establishing Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDC). Written comments are due on August 15, 2024, at 5 PM ET, and I hope we can benefit from broad experience and insights to set these up to modernize our systems, operations, and the field of diplomacy. The goal is to create mechanisms for the State Department to benefit from deep technical research that isn't normally associated with the field of #diplomacy and #foreignaffairs. #doingbusinesswithdepartmentofstate #modernization

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