Bryan Baker

With the 4th of July holiday fast approaching, I wanted to take a look at where June’s dry van truckload spot market rates stand to get a sense if the market is showing any signs of turning. Two charts below using data from DAT Freight & Analytics. Thoughts: •Top chart shows dry van spot rates as well as dry van broker buy contract rates. Dry Van spot rates, while up $0.06 per mile from the April low, are down $0.03 per mile from June 2023. Given diesel prices are down just $0.08 per gallon from a year ago (https://lnkd.in/g5sUVM8V), fuel isn’t driving this difference. •June 2024’s $0.03 increase over May is quite weak relative to what we have traditionally seen in dry van TL bull markets. In 2014 the increase was $0.11 per mile; in 2017 it was $0.10 per mile; and in 2018 it was $0.17 per mile. For that matter, the increase was $0.10 in 2019 (a down year)! As such, spot prices so far are a sign of a cruel summer—my daughter is obsessed with Taylor Swift—from a pricing standpoint. •Bottom chart shows the dry van spot market cycle indicator (DVSMCI), calculated as the broker buy rate less the spot rate, with the difference divided by the average of the two measures. That ratio is currently 16.6%. While better than last year’s 19.9% reading, we are well away from the 10% threshold where we have tended to see markets flip. Implication: dry van spot market data suggest that folks who made predictions of the dry van truckload market flipping from bear to bull in late Q2 or early Q3 likely made an overly optimistic forecast. I increasingly believe the earliest the market could meaningfully flip is Q2 2025, and this will require many things to go right from carriers’ vantages for this to occur. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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SEVEN MONTHS… That’s the countdown, supply chain folks! The NMFTA is about to shake things up with major changes to the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system, and it’s going to impact LTL shipping costs in a big way. Traditionally, NMFC classifications have used a straightforward set of classes based on density, stowability, handling, and liability. High class = high shipping cost. But now, carriers are bringing in new tech sharper than ever at calculating the exact dimensions and density of your shipments. So if that box of widgets has been enjoying a cozy, lower class rate, buckle up—it might get a “first-class” upgrade, minus the free cocktails! Higher rates are ahead for items that don’t meet the new density requirements. With this increased focus on density, shippers can expect more variable pricing, so it’s time to pack smart. To avoid any surprise shipping cost hikes, now’s the time to tighten up packaging, aim for maximum density, and work closely with carriers to stay ahead of these changes. May 1st—7 months to go. If you’re ready, congrats! If not, look forward to some “quality time” with the CFO, a frustrated sales team, and possibly some questions from customers about the spike in cost of goods. Fun times ahead!

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Freightwaves: *posts doomsday LTL freight market article* Expediri: #ltl #freight #expedited #freightwaves

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“Sales is sales, people are people” This is probably a unpopular opinion, but I think this is a little misleading . I was debating with friend last night, saying that if 5 elite smb logistics sales reps competed against 5 elite enterprise logistics( no prior relationships everything equal) reps and could only sell to 1b + companies they would get destroyed. And Vice versa applies. Why? What goes into selling at the enterprise level is much different than the smb level. Different skill set. It’s the same game, but totally different conversations, relationship building , values, problems. Why do you think so many recruiting firms on the w2 side don’t touch recruiting agents or if they do aren’t very good at it? It’s the same game, still people, still recruiting, but totally different conversations and skill sets. I share this, because you don’t have to be an elite sales person in general you just have to be elite at the niche/arena you are in. Heck, you could get rich being an elite produce broker in the SE. If you aren’t good at something you might not be bad at sales, you might just be selling the wrong thing for your skill set! What do you guys think, is sales really sales and people are people or is that misleading? Happy Monday!

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Its that time of year again! Are annual LTL rate increases putting pressure on your transportation budget? You're not alone. Many businesses face rising costs in less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping, driven by fuel surcharges, labor expenses, and capacity constraints. One solution to counteract these increases is consolidating multiple LTL shipments into full truckload (FTL) shipments. Here's why this strategy makes sense: ✅ Cost Savings: Combining LTL shipments into a single truckload can significantly lower per-unit shipping costs by maximizing trailer utilization and avoiding high LTL fees. ✅ Improved Transit Times: Consolidated shipments typically follow a direct route, reducing handling and transit time compared to traditional LTL that moves through multiple terminals. ✅ Reduced Damage Risk and W&I: With fewer touchpoints, your products are less likely to be damaged or delayed, enhancing customer satisfaction. ✅ Environmental Impact: Fewer trucks on the road mean reduced fuel consumption and lower carbon emissions—a win for your business and the planet. This option is not for every shipper! You need to identify your top receivers, where they are located and IF shipments can be strung into a multi-stop route. If you're considering optimizing your supply chain with consolidated shipping, let's discuss how our team at Hermann Services can help you make the transition smoothly and cost-effectively. Have you tried this strategy, or are you interested in learning more? Let’s connect in the comments or via direct message! #Logistics #Hermannservices #Shipping #Transportation

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OD is the latest carrier to take their annual rate increase. Keep in mind that the stated percentage of rate increase is an AVERAGE and may not reflect what you see as a shipper/receiver. Each lane is different - so, it's hard to know how a carrier's annual rate increase will impact your company and customers. You can't just adjust your freight cost estimate by 4.9% or 7.9% and cover yourself. GLI can help. We perform freight cost analyses for companies every day and can quickly determine exactly how a carrier increase will impact your bottom line. Our job is to support your goals.

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LTL should not be viewed merely as a secondary choice but rather as a key component that bridges the voids within your transportation framework. Discover three effective strategies for incorporating LTL into your multimodal strategy to fully leverage its capabilities. I suggest checking out this guide on LTL: http://sndr.pro/5M

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Brokers all bidding the same freight... vs the LTL carrier they're all bidding to 😑 Check out the latest about LOAs in #LetsTalkLogistics, and learn about leveraging the RIGHT partner to gain a competitive edge to LTL carriers' pricing! https://lnkd.in/gvU_8dFG #pricing #freight #shipping 

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The LTL freight market is navigating headwinds, but leading carriers like XPO and Old Dominion Freight Line are staying the course, using this phase to refine operations and prepare for future opportunities. 🚚 📉 Market Context: Both carriers reported year-over-year tonnage declines in November, signaling potential stabilization at the bottom of the cycle. ✅ XPO: Margins are improving through service-focused pricing and local account strategies, with 21 Yellow Corp. terminals reopened to boost capacity by 30%. ✅ Old Dominion: Yield management remains strong, with 30% excess capacity in place to capture growth when demand returns. At Mothership, we’re proud to partner with carriers like XPO and Old Dominion to provide shippers with unmatched nationwide coverage and reliable service. These partnerships ensure that even in challenging markets, your freight can go farther, faster, and more efficiently. Read more about the market: https://bit.ly/4fUrrWI

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PLUG: Here are Knight, we have a few different options for customers seeking dynamic pricing. Ask me about them. :) RE: this article - I’ve read a variety of opinions surrounding CH Robinson’s recent spot-quoting AI reveal. Personally, I applaud them for being an early-adaptor within the Artificial Intelligence/Transportation Industry space. At the end of the day, finding new ways to provide their customers faster, more consistent spot-quote responses is a win/win endeavor. Now will there be an “adaptive AI learning curve” that helps ensure their AI pricing is both competitive and profitable? Yes, of course. The transportation world (as a whole) is so dynamic that it will be interesting to see how quickly AI reasoning can “detect and adjust” to market swings. Most certainly there will be people behind the scenes calling “audibles” in those situations. Will they be able to execute on the business generated? Well that’s the never-ending, never-relenting question mark behind every company in our space. Ultimately, if they can’t execute, nothing else matters. I’m guessing they have a lot of brilliant minds invested here to ensure this project not only has feet but is ultimately successful.

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When times provide challenging circumstances, review realities and adjust. From this article, see below: The US LTL producer price index (PPI) was up 8.2% year over year in April and 5.2% in May, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. LTL pricing is significantly above its long-term trend line, said Noel Perry, chief economist at Truckstop.com.  Perry questioned whether such elevated LTL pricing is sustainable. “Normally, pricing doesn’t move that much, unless we have a long-term structural change,” he said. Yellow's bankruptcy, which cut LTL capacity by 10% last year, may have provided that needed structural change, at least until other LTL carriers are able to replace that capacity. https://lnkd.in/gtmeti_4

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LTL isn't just a backup option—it's a strategic asset that fills gaps in your transportation network. Learn 3 powerful ways to integrate LTL into your multimodal approach and unlock its full potential. I recommend reading this LTL guide: http://sndr.pro/2Y

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Selecting the right shipping provider is crucial for your import supply chain's success. Here are 5 things to consider: 1. Know your free days before demurrage charges start. 2. Assess how fast and far your product needs to move from the port. 3. Opt for transloading if traveling over 200-250 miles from the port. 4. Decide on the visibility level needed for in-transit freight. 5. Use a single provider for efficiency and prioritized freight handling.  Working with a comprehensive provider like Schneider: - Simplifies your supply chain management - Reduces touchpoints - Prioritizes your success This leads to cost savings and better customer focus.

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August brought unexpected softness in the volume trends for LTL carriers, signaling potential shifts in the freight industry. Economic challenges like fluctuating consumer demand, rising interest rates, and inflationary pressures have left many carriers facing lower shipping volumes than expected. Could this decline be a temporary lull, or is it a sign of broader market slowdowns? Find out what factors are influencing these trends and what they could mean for the future of LTL freight: https://ow.ly/33Yu50Tp8cm #LTLCarriers #FreightTrends #ShippingVolumes #FreightMarketDecline #LogisticsNews

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Our new ADL shipping portal is a centralized platform that connects shippers and carriers for the efficient transportation of smaller freight loads. This portal streamlines the shipping process by allowing shippers to easily compare rates, schedule pickups, track shipments, and manage invoices all in one place. Carriers benefit from increased visibility of available loads, optimized routing, and improved capacity utilization. Overall, an LTL shipping portal enhances transparency, communication, and cost-effectiveness in the logistics industry.

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