Brian Elliott

Note: A Quick Look Into Potential Israeli Target of Retaliatory Strike Before I start I would suggest a read of this previous note on the subject for quick familiarization with the situation: [ https://lnkd.in/gm3E6ASN ]. The photo below is the "Kahrg" or "Kahrk" island located in southern western Iran in the Persian Gulf. This island is essentially the pulse of the Islamic Republic's oil export ( at 92%) . As the Israeli war cabinet approved the Retaliatory strike against the Islamic Republic, this island is the first potential target that might come to mind not just because of its importance to the Islamic Republic's economy but because of its location. Deep penetration in Iranian territory would require a lot of logistics and preparations. Israel is not capable of targeting the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities at short notice and without the support of the United States. That is a fact that some have a hard time accepting and if you wish to understand why I suggest a read of this [ https://lnkd.in/gkibkW_G ]. By now, if you have read the previous post which is also linked in the beginning of this post you understand why targeting their oil and gas infrastructure is the best option at this time. This specific island while protected with multiple Hawk-2 Medium range missile defense systems with customized Islamic Republic made anti air missiles and some ZPUs (Russian and Domestically Produced), is yet far from the shore of bushehr where the S300 missile battery is present to protect Iran's LWR ( Light Water Reactor). The range of targets permit the IAF to commit to a stand off and effective long range strike to take out most of the strategic locations in this small island. The IAF can conduct the Airstrike from the Iraqi territory without the need to get close to the Islamic Republic's AMD. There are 2 interceptor bases housing SU24 Fencers and F14 Tomcats in the region but they cannot sustain any dogfight with the IAF. It is my deep understanding that the IDF wishes to avoid direct casualties from this strike yet wants to inflict high damage to the Islamic Republic which makes this target a better option rather than other refineries in Iran's mainland. While iran has employed long range and over the horizon detection mechanisms across its western sector, it is highly vulnerable to stand off strikes on these locations which can make them excellent targets as an initial strike to carve through the Islamic Republics air and missile Defense but that would be the case if only israel wishes to commit to a large scale strike. Let's hear your thoughts.

33

28 Comments

In autumn 1973, Israeli armored forces encountered a wall of Egyptian anti-tank weapons. Although unguided weapons played a critical role, what drew the most attention at the time was the use of the small 9M14 Malyutka guided missiles (NATO reporting name: AT-3 Sagger). Western tanks, protected by Rolled Homogeneous armor at the time, fell en masse to the impact of these missiles' HEAT warheads, rocket-propelled grenades, and mines. The Malyutkas, being manually controlled wire-guided missiles (MCLOS), were difficult to operate. The user had to maintain the trajectory using a joystick until hitting the target. We're talking about a expensive weapon for the time (which limited training opportunities), flying at 110 m/s and with limited guidance. Despite all these limitations, they achieved notable success and accelerated the replacement of RHA with composite armor and/or reactive armor. Keep in mind that Malyutkas were used at level ground and against tank fronts: against the most protected part of the tank. They couldn't perform top attacks nor, in most cases, could they attack the rear or rear-lateral sections. Fast forward to 2024. FPV drones have quickly reached operational maturity in their anti-tank use. Their effect is decisive against all types of vehicles. By late 2024, fiber optic guidance is rapidly gaining popularity. This makes drones immune to EW defenses and gives them much more flexibility by not depending on line of sight (LOS). Comparing with Malyutkas from 50 years ago, the result is dramatic: - Anti-tank FPVs fly at 30m/s at best, compared to the missile's 110 m/s. Combined with FPV flight controllers' capabilities, ease of handling is decisively superior for FPVs. - Operators can train with both software simulators and field drones without fear of breaking them. In a few weeks, an FPV operator acquires expertise completely out of reach for a missile operator. - FPVs can hit a tank at its vulnerable points, with more precision than a Malyutka. Frontal and level protection is useless when the operator can target crew viewports, engine compartment roof, the back of the turret ring... - FPVs are built by the millions. These are unattainable numbers for anti-tank missiles - FPVs reach 10km in their wire-guided variant and up to 28km in their radio-guided variant. They can reach helicopters and enter trenches and bunkers. - They can detonate at distance fragmentation payload. Payload variety is increasing, including incendiary and now logistics for friendly forces. Malyutkas had a profound impact on force composition in the 70s and 80s, being much fewer in number and much more limited. What potential do radio-guided, wire-guided, or increasingly autonomous FPVs have? In the 70s, the main issue wasn't denied. Action was taken in response to an evident threat. Right now, FPVs can be operated by non-state actors, and they are being operated. Will the main issue be denied or will action be taken as in the late 70s?

22

Recap on subject of Hezbollah Hezbollah's terrorist activities in the past 72 hours is indicative that the group is testing the Israel's AMD (Air Missile Defense) capabilities, most likely trying to deduce the composition of a barrage threshold for their situation attacks. From the Infiltration of multiple drones to rocket salvos in a single Launch, Hezbollah's potential battle plan is something that we have discussed before. This recap should help catch up with the subject as the security situation is rapidly deteriorating in northern Israel and Hezbollah does not seem to want to lower the tensions and stop its terror activities. ✴️ Situational Assessment in Northern Israel (06/24/2024): [ https://lnkd.in/gicHp_Bt ] ✴️ Dissecting The United States' Role in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah (06/24/2024): [ https://lnkd.in/g3fhJ8JC ] ✴️ Deciphering the Conflict: How the OSINT is aiding Hezbollah to formulate its Terrorists Activities: [https://lnkd.in/g_yxBhTM ] ✴️ A Short Look into Hezbollah's Battle Plan: [ https://lnkd.in/guKch5Ej ] ✴️ Assessment of the Israel's Northern Front: [ https://lnkd.in/gemF6dpx ] ✴️ IDF's Activities Against Hezbollah: [ https://lnkd.in/g9rzhH32 ] ✴️ Dissecting Hezbollah's Threat: [ https://lnkd.in/dYczHYRv ] ✴️ Understanding Hezbollah: [ https://lnkd.in/g_S_6wH5 ] #ישראל #israelunderfire #terrorism #Hezbollah #Israel #lebanon

28

10 Comments

YASDE* - Defunct Russian GEO military comsat Garpun 11L / COSMOS 2473 (37806 / 2011-048A), ~28 May 2024 *(Yet Another Space Debris Event) The defunct Russian GEO satellite COSMOS 2473 appears to have experienced an energetic event around 28 May 2024 which raised the orbit altitude ~ 5 km (ref graphic, top panel) and was ostensibly responsible for the release of a new object. The object, identified in the Vimpel catalog, appears to have originated from COSMOS 2473 concurrent with this orbital change and is presumably a piece of #SpaceDebris. While only 1 piece is being tracked (by Russia at least), there are undoubtedly several more which cannot be routinely tracked. Garpun 11L was launched 20 Sep 2011, but failed on-orbit in June 2020. It will unfortunately indefinitely reside in the GEO Protected region trapped in the eastern GEO potential well. The ~4 year oscillation period will soon have it drifting west again (ref graphic, bottom panel). (Orbital data on COSMOS 2473 sourced from space-track.org, used with permission per ODR 24-002-4).

35

2 Comments

Last week was full of events, and here are the most interesting ones. 1. AI-equipped autonomous weapons are increasingly being used in real combat situations. The Ukrainian military has employed AI-powered drones to strike Russian oil refineries, while other countries like Israel and the US are integrating AI into their military operations.  https://vadym.cc/i0Bghvz 2. The development of autonomous weapons has sparked a multibillion-dollar AI arms race, involving tech companies and nations worldwide. This trend has raised ethical concerns and calls for regulation in the rapidly evolving field of AI warfare. https://vadym.cc/oZjA843 3. RocketDNA, an Australian company, has secured approval for autonomous beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) drone operations using the DJI Dock. This marks a significant advancement in automated drone surveying technology for industries like mining. https://vadym.cc/7GRmB7l 4. AMD, a major semiconductor company, has acquired Silo AI, Europe's largest private AI lab, for $665 million. This move aims to bolster AMD's position in the AI chip market, currently dominated by Nvidia. https://vadym.cc/GVLOOeR 5. Researchers at Delft University of Technology are using drone racing to test neural-network-based AI control systems for future space missions. This approach helps build trust and establish safety bounds for AI systems before their deployment in actual spacecraft. https://vadym.cc/Cu7IFX8 6. The commercial drone sector is projected to reach $127 billion by 2025, with Al playing a crucial role in enhancing drone capabilities. Al-powered algorithms are enabling drones to navigate complex environments, avoid obstacles, and perform tasks autonomously. https://vadym.cc/gZRuMwI

16

Defensive missiles cost multiples of the price of an offensive missile. The same is true for drones. The cost to take out a drone by the US military is $100,000, according to this article. There are two implications of this. 1. Whoever can lower that cost seems to have a contract opportunity with US DoD. 2. You can make war very expensive for the US by putting up a lot of drones that require a $100k response. I would bet that lesson has not been lost on the Chinese.

6

- Intelligence Penetration: Israel's ability to infiltrate Iranian intelligence showcases the ongoing game between the two nations, emphasizing the significance of espionage in modern warfare. - Assassination as Strategy: Assassinations of the key figures suggest a strategic approach by Israel to disrupt Iranian influence and operations in the region, but also risk correspondent escalation. - Geographical Vulnerabilities: Iran's lack of natural defenses makes it particularly susceptible to external intelligence operations, highlighting the importance of geographical factors in national security. - Collaborative Espionage: The involvement of European and Western intelligence agencies with Israel in recruiting Iranian spies illustrates a broader geopolitical alliance against Tehran's ambitions. - Crisis Response: The urgent meetings within Iranian leadership indicate a reactive stance to perceived threats, underscoring the fragile security environment in the region. - Internal Conflict: Accusations of treason within Israel reflect the complexities of loyalty and espionage, raising questions about internal security and the trustworthiness of officials. - Regional Dynamics: Iran's extensive involvement in geopolitics and support for various groups, including Huthwaite, Hezbollah and Hamas, suggests a multifaceted strategy to counteract Israeli influence and maintain regional power.

5

1 Comment

Matt and Pete nail the analysis of Congress-DoD budgeting activity again. But they might have under-examined one key trend... This budget markup shows serious concern about #ContestedLogistics. Although the Navy took serious cuts to many programs, budget lines for logistics platforms tell a different story. Logistics platforms that received plus ups: - CH-53 (Heavy Lift Helo) - KC-130J (Tanker) - V-22 Osprey (Troop Transport) - Fleet Oiler - Towing, Salvage, and Rescue Ship - Ship to Shore Connector Non-Logistics platforms that received plus ups: - F-35 Missiles and surface combat capabilities received severe cuts. To me, the essence of how we do logistics is very important. Our proficiency, culture, and experience will serve us well. But there is no substitute for sheer mass. The House Appropriations Committee clearly recognizes that we need more ships. #Logistics #Congress #DoD #Budget #Defense #DefenseTech #DefenseTechnology #Acquisitions #Shipbuilding #Ships

28

10 Comments

Some C-domain Entities when they vibrate at the C-energy Frequency Range (CeFR) that defines our physical reality or P-domain - thus sometimes we can see them and possibly interact with them. Same CTPSci Principles apply to #CTPcraft. (https://lnkd.in/egYAGXW4) #newscience #newreality #reality #Cdomain #CTP

3

One might debate who’s leading who, but there is no argument that more must be done to create overmatching advantage against the acute and pacing threat - and it does not stop with buying the right gear - we must have access to spectrum, improve use of virtual simulation and train more effectively and jointly to develop that overmatching warfighting capability!

10

1 Comment

Austin: As NATO Recognizes 75 Years of Strength, Focus Remains on Ukraine - July 10, 2024 | By C. Todd Lopez, DOD News The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed 75 years ago when the treaty that created the alliance was signed on April 4, 1949, in Washington. Just a dozen nations were signatories. Since then, the NATO alliance has grown to include 32 nations. During a summit this week in Washington, NATO member states are commemorating the alliance's longevity and growth. "It's a huge honor for the United States and President Biden to host this historic summit in Washington, just down the road from the site where the original 12 NATO allies signed the North Atlantic Treaty 75 years ago," Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said today at the summit. "Together, we're marking one of the [greatest] success stories that the world has ever known." "It was the foundation of NATO, and it still is," he said. "On that bedrock we have built the strongest and most successful defensive alliance in human history." That alliance, Austin said, has protected Europe and North America's security and interests through the Cold War, conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. "NATO has always stood by us, and we're going to stand by NATO," Austin said. "Without NATO, the past 75 years would have been far different and far more dangerous." While attendees at the summit acknowledge the growth and success of NATO over the past 75 years, a larger issue looms: the conflict in Ukraine. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed the part of Ukraine known as the Crimean Peninsula. And in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with the hope of taking the capital city of Kyiv. Since then, the two nations have been at war. While Austin said the U.S. will not enter the war in Ukraine, it will support the country. "We will stand by Ukraine as it fights for its sovereignty and security," he said. "We will defend every inch of NATO, and we will continue to strengthen NATO's collective defense and deterrence." Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO has grown larger, stronger and more ready, Austin said. "In the wake of Putin's imperial invasion of Ukraine, we've bolstered NATO's forward defense posture with more troops at high readiness, larger exercises, sharper vigilance and multinational battle groups in eight countries," he said. "NATO is now larger than ever." In 1949, just a dozen nations signed on to NATO. Today, with the addition of Finland in 2023 and Sweden this year, NATO's membership has grown to 32 nations. "Putin's war is not the result of NATO enlargement," Austin said. "Putin's war is the cause of NATO enlargement." Read More on DoD: https://lnkd.in/gFzMGcKf

9

1 Comment

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹'𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿 As Israel made the necessary preparations to retaliate against the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile attack; It is notable to mention that the presence of the THAAD missile defense batteries are going to drastically bolster Israelis air and missile Defense network. I am not going to make any public statements or analysis of how Israel will be conducting its mission against Iran but I would say that it is apparent to me that the IDF Israel has planned a comprehensive multi-stage escalatory plan of attack against the Islamic Republic. The presence of THAAD will significantly bolster Israel's air and missile defense particularly in the final layer and the terminal defense. The last IRGC missile strike achieved penetration of Israel's multi-layered air and missile defense protection network even though we have witnessed exo atmospheric and Endo atmosphere integrations in the outer layers, numerous warheads made got through by the virtue of the IRGC's retarded saturation attack where all they have learned and understood was to launch waves of ballistic missiles in order to achieve penetration. Be that as it may, the configuration of their attack was significantly better as opposed to their April attack. In my opinion the THAAD will play a pivotal role in the terminal defense of Israel following an immediate or planned attack by the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Republic is extremely vulnerable against ballistic missile attacks and variants of it, as it does not have "Any" capable air and missile defense systems beyond the "Domestically Produced Bavar-373 (copy of S300), The Russian made S300 and the newly Domestically Produced Armaan which did not have a very accurate interceptor missiles". While the Islamic Republic's Air and Missile defense network are far from being a unified network, they have tried to saturate their air defense zones with various systems while none have any acceptable capabilities against certain " High Speed" projectiles. The IAF has a wide range of tools to deal with them at its disposal. IAF's prelude is going to be a spectacular operation to carve through their air and missile defense systems paving the way for secondary attacks should IRGC decide to bite and bark. God Speed #Israel. Refer to these for a deeper dive into the subject: 🎯 [ https://lnkd.in/gG5C2QhD ] 🎯 [ https://lnkd.in/gd2KKpQE ] 🎯 [ https://lnkd.in/gx8YupPS ]

30

2 Comments

NOTE: What factors are enabling the Russian Offensive? The vacuum created by the lack of having an effective AADP in Ukraine has enabled Russia to gain tactical air Superiority. The air superiority is not just defined by the ability to conduct CAP and CAS Missions with impunity. It also involves the deployment of other aerospace assets by the russians which ultimately contribute to the success of the Russian forces on the ground. 1. The Russian ISR Russians have been deploying their ISR assets across the Frontlines and Ukraine has been unable to respond to the presence of these assets effectively [ https://lnkd.in/gKqpYCzk ]. The Russian ISR utilizing domestically produced systems as well as acquired Iranian made systems enabling the Russian forces to identify and target Ukrainian positions and hardware with artillery, loitering munitions and air strikes. 2. Russian Artillery and Support The Russian artillery systems are now an active and effective force to support Russian troops advances and maneuvers. The Russian artillery is now actively targeting Ukrainian supply lines with the aid of the RU-ISR. 3. VKS Missions VVS is a core enabler of the Russian Counteroffensive and practically the entire components of the Russian army in the theater. The number of their sorties have increased and the Russian fighter jets are conducting regular missions with impunity. The Russian rotary wings are in a better position and are capable of providing CAS for the Russian troops and supporting their advances. What can be done? RECAP [ https://lnkd.in/gP7D-PMd ] RECAP [ https://lnkd.in/gx7iCfxP ] 1. Reference Points: [ https://lnkd.in/gFWHt-x9 ] and[ https://lnkd.in/gZm-RRhd ]. Stabilizing the situation on the eastern front is not going to be an easy task. I have previously noted that Russians tend to fortify as they go so attempting to take back the occupied territories is a mistake at this point whether Ukraine wants it or not, It should take a full defensive stance in order for it to be able to stabilize the situation, Securing its assets and brace. Ukraine is in no condition to commit to any offensive unless [ https://lnkd.in/gFWHt-x9 ] Happens.

17

1 Comment