Trendency

Our latest Political Trend watch is out. This is part 1 of the post election analysis with a fascinating look at younger voters. https://lnkd.in/egqs3NW9

The latest discussion around the 2024 election and looking forward to 2025 is out. A big shout out to the participants: Charles Ellison, CPM Justin Wallin, and Stefan Hankin More discussions to come in 2025 https://lnkd.in/gkK7XC4w #2024elections #research #analysis

Our latest Consumer Trendwatch newsletter is out. This month we look at the Perceived Value that subscribers place on their entertainment subscriptions. It is impressive to see how Netflix continues to drive the industry as habits continue to change. https://lnkd.in/eeeKDkU7

The idea that late deciding voters moved to Trump is an outdated sentiment based on outdated methodologies. It is true that in the exit polls voters are asked when they made up their mind, and then we can look at whom they voted for based on that reporting. The challenge is that this assumes that people are being honest with themselves and reporting accurately. This is not to say people are lying, but they are likely falling into the Geroge Costanza view of the truth (if you believe it to be true, then it's not a lie). We asked this question of our panelists and we can then look backwards in time to see what this group of "late deciders" we reporting over the past four months. Not only was it clear who they were likely to vote for back in August, but they were (on average) some of Trump's strongest supporters all along.

Continuing our look back at the data around the 2024 Presidential Election, we asked our panelists not just if they voted, and for whom, but also when they made their decision on which candidate to support. Just under 2/3 said that they made up their mind more than 3 months ago, 23% said it was in the last few months, and 13% said in the last week. The two thirds who say they knew who they were going to vote for moved very little since late July You can check out the data and filter the results here: https://lnkd.in/eHyiPdWJ

It has been a week since the 2024 Election and there is still a good deal of head scratching about what happened. From our end, the state level data was quite accurate while the national numbers missed the mark and overestimated Harris' support. Given our approach to data collection and analysis, we have the unique ability to use current information from our panelists to analyze what they shared with us in the past and get a better understanding of what happened. This multi-directional view of that data should give us some interesting answers. Starting out, the day before the election 61% of our national panel indicated that they already voted. This turned out to be a little bit higher than the reality with roughly 55% of voters actually voting early. In our November 4th update, 55% said they voted for Harris while 40% said they voted for Trump. Those waiting for Election Day favored Trump 53% to 41%. The total early vote ended up roughly the same with what was reported right after the election, but it is remarkable how different the support for the two candidates was based whether someone voted by mail or put their ballot in a drop box compared to those who vote early in-person. The other big difference was the day of voting which moved even further to Trump that we had originally estimated. It is also worth pointing out the 2% who reported leaving their ballot blank on the presidential vote. An interactive version of this graph is at: https://lnkd.in/eHyiPdWJ We will continue to roll out these results as we have them.

Who does the best in the home stretch before an election is not a guarantee of success, but very clear which candidate has has a better final week leading into tomorrow.

Our last look at the national results before the election. As a quick note we adjusted our Election Day view based on the data collected over the past week. This ends up with a closer national result than what we were showing before, but still with a comfortable margin for Harris. Currently 61% of our national panels report that they have voted already. Harris is up 55%-40% among this cohort. Among those who haven't voted Trump is up 40%-54%. Together this gives Harris a 5 point edge which is slightly larger (0.5) than what Biden won by in 2020 and 2.1 points higher than what Clinton won with in 2016. For Trump it would be 1.8 points lower than in 2020 and 1.1 points lower than in 2016. https://lnkd.in/eYxauPRF

Our final update from the #2024election is out. The national data is clear, however the states...less so. https://lnkd.in/eMUpFP7P #data #research

Going into the final weekend before Election Day a slight tick up for both Harris and "Other". Interactive version is here: https://lnkd.in/eYxauPRF