Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The FOMC is widely expected to implement another quarter point rate reduction at the conclusion of their meeting this afternoon. The odds of a 25bp rate cut currently sit at ~98%. Municipal price performance has been positive in the 5-days following three of the last five Fed decisions. #chartoftheweek #municipalbonds #fixedincome

MMA's Kevin McGuigan and Christina Weinberg attended the BDA's National Fixed Income Conference in Nashville, TN last week. It was a fantastic event with many great panels! Thank you to the BOND DEALERS OF AMERICA for organizing.

CYBER SALE!! Today through December 6th, MMA is providing a 40% DISCOUNT for MMA’s Municipal Credit & Strategy MASTERCLASS.   The program focuses on examining the fundamentals of municipal strategy and credit analysis as performed by the MMA team.   Sign up with the link below using code “40OFFSALE” https://lnkd.in/enx73h3C #municipalbonds #cybermonday

Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.'s Lisa Washburn quoted in The Bond Buyer's piece on Chicago's refinancing. https://lnkd.in/e3HhYJNq.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The municipal market has often been quiet during Thanksgiving week with relatively light trading, but since 2011, MMA’s 11-15yr price index has averaged a modest gain of 0.10%. Performance has been biased towards strength more recently, with gains during Thanksgiving week for five of the last six years. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

MMA's Chart of the Week: Late yesterday, S&P Global Ratings put the city of Chicago on “CreditWatch with negative implications.”  The ratings agency affirmed the city’s BBB+ rating, but analysts noted at least a 50% chance of downgrade over the next three months. S&P cited the challenges Chicago will face in closing a nearly $1B deficit in next year’s budget. Despite the warning from S&P, the city’s spreads have narrowed roughly ~30bps since the start of the year. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

On November 13, a group of industry participants, and faculty from U Chicago, U Texas and NYU congregated for dinner at the Metropolitan Club in NYC. The discussion focused on the growing role of colleges and universities in public policy and public finance. The three universities in attendance (along with UNC) are members of the BDA's Alliance. The evening also marked Municipal Market Analytics 30th year. Thanks to all in attendance and particularly Brad Winges at Hilltop who offered kind words and a spectacular cake to mark the occasion. A productive and celebratory evening.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The US presidential election is today. Many polls and oddsmakers show a tight race, with PredictIt showing odds of 56% that Donald Trump will win the White House. Municipal price performance during the month of November has been mixed in past election years. November 2016 was a clear outlier which, following Trump’s election victory, was defined by high interest rate volatility and strained tax-exempt liquidity. Order was eventually provided by algorithmic accounts, but yields still rose sharply, and memories of the period have created angst ahead of the upcoming 2024 election. Nonetheless, November’s performance in recent years has skewed the month’s seasonal bias positively, which has quickly become the fourth best month of the calendar year. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

Tom Doe & others explore why 27 states are running out of cash in this segment produced by CNBC. https://lnkd.in/gwEkXarF

MMA’s Chart of the Week: Municipal bonds have experienced sharp declines so far month-to-date. In the wake of the September Fed meeting, implied odds suggested that there would be 75bps worth of additional cuts by the end of the year. Recently strong data has thrown water on aggressive rate cut bets, and markets are now pricing in just 1.7 cuts (of 25bps) by the end of the year. Employment data to be released later this week could shift sentiment significantly. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek