CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program

Reactions to the DOE #LNG study by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) experts are out. I tried dissecting the study's China discussion and the nudge for #geopolitical consideration in the "public interest" evaluation. A host of informative perspectives from my colleagues: Joseph Majkut Kevin Book Arvind Ravikumar Ben Cahill Leslie Palti-Guzman Cy McGeady Kunro Irié Janet Whittaker. Happy holidays, Happy reading! https://lnkd.in/gar6mw6c

"Anticipated Reserve Margin is projected to fall below the Reference Margin Level in 18 of the 20 assessment areas by 2034." In plain terms, NERC finds that the combination of surging demand growth, thermal retirements, and clogged interconnection queues results in 18/20 regions being short capacity within the decade according to its just released 2024 Long Term Reliability Assessment. ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eyJzJi53 I was very happy to host NERC CEO Jim Robb at CSIS last week, where he laid out the pillars of the the path forward: 1) Accelerate new resource deployment. Interconnection queues, permitting reform is key. Emphasized the major role for nuclear at scale. 2) Accelerate linear energy transmission infrastructure (electric & gas) is crucial. Electric transmission MUST link regions to improve reliability. Gas midstream (interstate, storage) must expand despite lower utilization rates in the future. 3) Secure the balancing resources. For the near and medium term this will be high flexibility gas resources, which places a increased premium on resolving gas-electric reliability problem. Long duration storage may eventually play a role, but 4) Shift planning construct from "Capacity on Peak" to "Energy 24x7". This means planning models that solve for resource adequacy around the year through across varied weather systems and fuel risk scenarios. Full conference and remarks video here: https://lnkd.in/e6vCyt_5 CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program

Last week I had the privledge of sitting down with former FERC Commissioner Allison Clements & Rob Gramlich who spoke urgently and persuasively about the need to think bigger, bolder, and innovatively about delivering a power system that meets the nation's strategic imperatives. These conversation inspired my latest, "The Past & Present of Strategic Transmission": Amid prospects for strong electricity demand growth, a utility transmission planner evaluates the future of the power grid, writing, “Past experience . . . has proved beyond any doubt that the adoption of higher voltage, higher capacity transmission facilities, as they become technologically feasible, is the most effective approach to meet this need . . . such transmission facilities can be provided without economic penalty and will, in fact, contribute to the achievement of future economies, both in investment and in operation.” No, the year is not 2024. It’s 1969, and American Electric Power (AEP) is undertaking pioneering investment in a new network of high voltage 765-kilovolt (kV) transmission lines. Political, economic, and technology cycles come and go, but the basic physics of the grid holds true. In the present day, December of 2024, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) has just approved a $30 billion portfolio of transmission projects centered on a region-spanning 765-kV “backbone” transmission system. The system will stretch from the western reaches of MISO in Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota and integrate into the existing AEP 765 kV system farther east in Indiana and Ohio. Full piece here: https://lnkd.in/gTkPweBK CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program

How much influence does the president hold over the U.S.'s greenhouse gas emissions? Could President Trump's strong support for U.S. LNG exports produce global climate benefits? On the latest episode of The Transition, Joseph Majkut and I discuss opportunities for climate progress under Trump 2.0 with Robin Millican of Breakthrough Energy and The New York Times' Lisa Friedman. Listen here: https://lnkd.in/eNijJz27

"Artificial intelligence (AI)–fueled electric demand growth, combined with industrial reshoring and economy-wide reshoring, require the U.S. power sector to grow by upwards of 20 percent in the coming decade," writes the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program. Read more: https://lnkd.in/e-FCTSzx

"The broad bipartisan agreement that exists on national security and technology leadership implications of AI must be extended to solving policy challenges in the electric power sector," writes the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program. Read more: https://lnkd.in/e-FCTSzx

What should American energy strategy be for a new era of electric demand growth? This week, Wednesday 12/11, the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosts the Powering The Commanding Heights Conference to start the work on answers. All-start lineup you don't want to miss: At 9AM we are grateful to open with remarks from Rep. Miller-Meeks of Iowa, a congressional leader on sound "all-of-the-above" energy policy and permitting reform. Next, I host a one on one with Mark P Mills to discuss the confluence of long-term macro trends in technology, economics, and energy which should ground a strategic perspective. Then Liam Denning of Bloomberg Opinion will quiz Xizhou Zhou Global Head of Power at Wood Mackenzie and Lon Huber Senior VP of Customer Solutions at Duke Energy on rapidly evolving commercial paradigm in the power sector amidst historic demand growth potential. It keeps getting better! Joseph Majkut will bring Supply and Demand into conversation with Jason Grumet CEO of ACP, Rich Powell CEO of CEBA, and , and Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn interim-CEO at EEI. But wait, there's more. Next I interview Allison Clements and Rob Gramlich about a "Strategic Scale Grid". We will investigate the relationship between transmission and demand growth, with insight into Order 1920 and the latest Grid Strategies report showing 100+ GW of demand potential in coming decade. Finally Jim Robb, CEO at North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) will close with his views on the reliability pressures posed by demand growth and maybe some insight into NERC's 2024 Long Term Reliability Assessment coming later this week. Coffee and pastries start at 830AM. Lunch and networking runs till 2PM. If you are DC area, register to attend in person. Or watch the livestream online.

How should federal policymakers recalibrate their thinking on Transmission policy and investment given a new era of demand growth and the strategic imperative of continued US leadership on AI? Three recent developments in the mid-Atlantic power market of PJM—a boom in datacenter demand in northern Virginia, a $14 billion surge in PJM capacity costs, and the planned restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor—are literally linked together by the high-voltage transmission system in the region. Together this case clearly identifies the unique "strategic national interest" value of an expanded high-voltage transmission system and should compel federal policymakers to approach the issue as a strategic priority. My latest thinking on a new strategic perspective on Tx, just published: https://lnkd.in/g2GFEy-4 I'll be talking through these issues and concepts with former FERC Commissioner Allison Clements and Rob Gramlich tomorrow at the CSIS Powering the Commanding Heights conference. Attend in person or virtually: https://lnkd.in/e6vCyt_5 CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program

What should American energy strategy be for a new era of electric demand growth? This week, Wednesday 12/11, the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosts the Powering The Commanding Heights Conference to start the work on answers. All-start lineup you don't want to miss: At 9AM we are grateful to open with remarks from Rep. Miller-Meeks of Iowa, a congressional leader on sound "all-of-the-above" energy policy and permitting reform. Next, I host a one on one with Mark P Mills to discuss the confluence of long-term macro trends in technology, economics, and energy which should ground a strategic perspective. Then Liam Denning of Bloomberg Opinion will quiz Xizhou Zhou Global Head of Power at Wood Mackenzie and Lon Huber Senior VP of Customer Solutions at Duke Energy on rapidly evolving commercial paradigm in the power sector amidst historic demand growth potential. It keeps getting better! Joseph Majkut will bring Supply and Demand into conversation with Jason Grumet CEO of ACP, Rich Powell CEO of CEBA, and , and Patricia K. Vincent-Collawn interim-CEO at EEI. But wait, there's more. Next I interview Allison Clements and Rob Gramlich about a "Strategic Scale Grid". We will investigate the relationship between transmission and demand growth, with insight into Order 1920 and the latest Grid Strategies report showing 100+ GW of demand potential in coming decade. Finally Jim Robb, CEO at North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) will close with his views on the reliability pressures posed by demand growth and maybe some insight into NERC's 2024 Long Term Reliability Assessment coming later this week. Coffee and pastries start at 830AM. Lunch and networking runs till 2PM. If you are DC area, register to attend in person. Or watch the livestream online.

I had the honor to contribute to CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program's "Experts React: #COP29 Highlights, Challenges, and Emerging Trends in Global Climate Policy" "An important meeting under the COP29 banner was the Leaders’ Summit of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on Climate Change. Small island nations, like the #Caribbean states 🌎 , #Mauritius 🇲🇺 , and the #Maldives 🇲🇻 in the Indian Ocean, or the #SolomonIslands 🇸🇧 and #Micronesia 🇫🇲 in the Pacific 🌏 , face an existential risk due to climate change and global warming and its effect on rising sea waters. SIDS delegations must have a voice at the table of negotiations regarding climate change so that decisions will be specifically aimed at ensuring that their nations survive. The Baku Declaration on Amplifying SIDS’ Voice at COP29 for a Resilient and Sustainable Future was adopted during the summit. Part of the Canadian 🇨🇦 pledge during the Global Methane Pledge ministerial meeting at COP specifically addressed SIDS, as Ottawa committed 7.5 million USD over four years to reduce methane emissions from the waste in #Belize 🇧🇿 , #Grenada 🇬🇩 , #Guyana 🇬🇾 , #SaintLucia 🇱🇨 , #Fiji 🇫🇯 , and #Samoa 🇼🇸 . Similarly, the #UnitedKingdom 🇬🇧 pledged 6.7 million USD to the #PacificCatastropheRiskInsurance to ensure “more Pacific countries have the insurance they need in place” before catastrophic weather events. Baku was eager to provide the SIDS states with a voice at COP. During the preparations leading up to the conference, President #IlhamAliyev met with the governor-general of #Tuvalu 🇹🇻 , the prime minister of the Kingdom of #Tonga 🇹🇴 , and the minister of foreign affairs of the Commonwealth of The #Bahamas 🇧🇸 . The Azerbaijani government also reportedly financially supported the participation of SIDS delegates at COP and preceding meetings. The SIDS are the first to experience the devastating consequences of climate change. For them, climate change-exacerbated weather events, particularly rising sea waters and hurricanes, are national security and existential threats. COP29 and future iterations of COP must focus more on protecting SIDS and helping their populations." #ClimateChange #Environment #Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 #SmallIslandDevelopingStates #SIDS COP29 Azerbaijan #COP29Azerbaijan https://lnkd.in/eDE-ugdj