Development chances increase for Caribbean disturbance as final month of hurricane season approaches
The next storm to receive a name in the Atlantic Basin – which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico – will be called Patty.
Forecasters monitor Caribbean disturbance that may develop into tropical depression
Forecasters have increased the development chances for a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea as we prepare to enter the final month of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The next tropical threat could be brewing in the Caribbean Sea as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the possible development of an area of low pressure that could eventually become our next tropical depression or tropical storm.
The odds of development over the next week remain in the medium range, but the FOX Forecast Center believes those odds could increase as we enter the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FINAL WEEKS OF 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
(FOX Weather)
The NHC says a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend or early next week.
"Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward over the west-central Caribbean Sea," the NHC said in an update.
The next storm to receive a name in the Atlantic Basin – which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico – will be called Patty.
WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE?
Will the potential Caribbean tropical system impact the US?
Most of the time, these late-season tropical systems aren’t a threat to the U.S., but occasionally, they can come out of the Caribbean and impact Florida or provide a glancing blow to the Eastern Seaboard.
"The possibilities seem to include a weak system meandering in the Caribbean and eventually dying out, a stronger system tracking toward Haiti, the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, or something in the middle," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "It would take an unlikely scenario farther out than we can forecast for the system to affect Florida. So, for now, we'll just keep an eye on it."
What else is happening in the Atlantic tropics?
Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, the tropics are expected to remain quiet as we enter the final days of October and approach the start of November.
Nov. 30 will mark the final day of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)