Diversified Urbanization: The Case of Côte d'Ivoire
By Madio Fall and Souleymane Coulibaly
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Diversified Urbanization - Madio Fall
Overview: Rethinking Ivorian Cities
Urbanization and Economic Growth
With a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $1,450 in 2013, Côte d’Ivoire seeks a development strategy to reach middle-income status—a daunting challenge. It will take an annual growth rate of 10 percent over 13 years to reach a GNI per capita of $4,100, that of a middle-income country. Further, to report middle-income metrics—if we take the average performance of current middle-income countries—Côte d’Ivoire would have to¹
• Cut extreme poverty from 24 to 17 percent;
• Raise the share of the population with access to electricity from 59 to 92 percent;
• Keep the share of the urban population with access to water at 97 percent;
• Increase the share of the rural population with access to water from 74 to 80 percent;
• Nearly double the share of the urban population with access to sanitation services from 46 to 87 percent; and
• More than double the share of the rural population with access to sanitation services from 29 to 65 percent.
The country needs a structural transformation seen in the increasing role of urbanization in economic performance. The experience of developed and emerging economies shows that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has risen with increasing urbanization (figure O.1). According to the World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography (World Bank 2009), growing economic concentration, diminishing distance to economic density, and lowering cross-border barriers to trade are inherent to the development process as a country moves from an economy based on agriculture to one based on industry and then on services. This spatial transformation leads to the rise of cities and towns that are the natural manifestations of agglomeration economies. This is corroborated by the fact that the top 600 cities of the world contribute just over one-fifth of its population but over half of its production (figure O.2). Obviously, some of these cities are in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, aggregate numbers indicate that the correlation between urbanization and per capita GDP in Africa is weak (figure O.3). Additionally, whereas countries in other continents passed the 40 percent urbanization marker with GDP per capita above $1,800, Sub-Saharan African countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, passed it at just $1,000 (figure O.4). This highlights the limited fiscal and associated administrative capabilities of governments to lay in the investments in housing, infrastructure, and services in tandem with growth of urban settlements. This also makes the case for greater efficiency in public resource allocation to make every franc count.
Figure O.1 Per Capita GDP Has Risen in Tandem with Urbanization Rates
Source: Dobbs et al 2012.
Note: Definition of urbanization varies by country; pre-1950 figures for the United Kingdom are estimated. GDP = gross domestic product.
a. Historical per capita GDP series expressed in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars, which reflect PPP.
Figure O.2 The Top 600 Cities Account for 22 Percent of Population, 54 Percent of Income
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope 1.0.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product.
a. Estimate based on global GDP not including agriculture and mining and on GDP contribution of smaller Cityscope cities.
b. Megacities include cities with over 10 million inhabitants in 2007.
c. Middleweight cities have a current population between 150,000 and 10 million.
Figure O.3 Sub-Saharan African Countries Are Urbanizing
Sources: World Development Indicators; World Bank staff calculations.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure O.4 Despite Urbanization, Incomes of Sub-Saharan Countries Remain below Those of Other