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    Knowing When You Do Not Know: Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis
    Knowing When You Do Not Know: Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis
    Knowing When You Do Not Know: Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis
    Ebook63 pages1 hour

    Knowing When You Do Not Know: Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

    By Ambar Narayan and Carolina Sanchez

    ()

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    About this ebook

    Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will
    affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily
    available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only
    understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying
    which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the
    crisis.

    A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shock
    from the historical response of income or consumption poverty to
    changes in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty to
    growth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregate
    poverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts and
    policymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture the
    attention of policymakers and the international community, but in the
    absence of any information on who is affected and to what extent,
    provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken.

    This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem,
    showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demand
    from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in
    the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with the
    idea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macro
    linkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data,
    the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix of
    countries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. The
    results fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bank
    teams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherWorld Bank Publications
    Release dateJan 12, 2012
    ISBN9780821389546
    Knowing When You Do Not Know: Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

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