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Analysis

Trump is picking a VP. Biden is fighting for his future. RFK Jr.? Four months to election, he went fishing in Maine.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took selfies with supporters and campaign volunteers after a forum on food security and farming in Freeport, Maine, on July 9.Michael G. Seamans

ABOARD A BOAT ON CASCO BAY, Maine — On Tuesday night, former president Donald Trump jovially teased thousands of supporters at a campaign rally about whether he should announce his vice presidential pick right then and there. In Washington, President Biden hosted a NATO reception of world leaders while members of his own party appeared on television questioning whether he should end his reelection bid.

At the same time, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate polling a distant third in the presidential election, faced a different question inside the flagship L.L. Bean store in Freeport, Maine.

Would he like to join their loyalty program to unlock coupons and make it easier to return the three flannel shirts and patterned blue swim trunks he was purchasing?

He agreed, responding with “Robert” and “Kennedy” when asked for his first and last name. Eventually, Jason, the middle-aged clerk, put it all together.

“Are you the one running for president?” he asked.

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“Yeah,” Kennedy responded, smiling.

(It’s possible the three security guards, a staffer typing away on a phone, a videographer, and a reporter with a notebook standing around tipped him off that something was up.)

With less than four months until the election, these past two weeks could have provided an unprecedented moment ripe for Kennedy. Biden’s poor performance in the first debate in late June sent Democrats scrambling to figure out what’s next.

Some diehard Kennedy supporters in line ahead of a campaign event in Freeport earlier in the evening were having a similar discussion about Kennedy, but more because of his lack of resources than concern about his health.

Some supporters, like Leslie Hallock, of Freeport, said her backup option would be Trump. Elsewhere in the line, Nancy Monarch, a supporter from Saco, echoed the same sentiment unprompted.

Instead of a moment, Kennedy’s trip to Maine could exemplify why the campaign isn’t working.

Maine is not considered a swing state, but Kennedy was here anyway. Neither Trump nor Biden has visited the state this year. Through a legislative quirk, Maine awards a single Electoral College vote to each congressional district. That has made the Second Congressional District contested in past campaigns, but Kennedy was not there.

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Federal campaign finance records show RFK Jr.’s campaign would be $3.5 million in debt at the beginning of June if it weren’t for a $10 million infusion of cash from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. After averaging 16.7 percent in polling last fall, when he launched his independent bid, he is now in the high single digits. Polling has also found his favorability flipped in the spring, meaning now more voters don’t like him than do.

A devastating and detailed report by Vanity Fair last week — including a credible allegation of sexual assault against Kennedy — provided a fresh setback to the already ailing campaign.

Asked if other women might come forward with similar allegations, he said, “I don’t know. We’ll see what happens.”

The coming months could be even worse. He didn’t qualify for the last debate and there is no expectation he will for a second debate, should there be one. Both Trump and Biden are spending more on television advertising than Kennedy has raised during his entire campaign. The only campaign ad that promoted him all year was a Super Bowl ad paid for by his super PAC.

While Biden and Trump can raise nearly a million dollars from an individual through a mix of campaign committees, Kennedy is limited to just $6,600 from a single person. Shanahan was legally allowed to give him so much money because she is on the ticket herself. Kennedy can get unlimited contributions through a super PAC, but he doesn’t control how that money is spent.

In an interview, Kennedy disputed this bleak future for his bid, saying that in a matter of weeks he would be on the ballot in most states. He said his fund-raising has improved. He pointed to one poll that showed him gaining support following the debate. Most polls suggest he hasn’t moved much.

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The campaign remains frustratingly focused on jumping through all the hoops necessary to get access to the Maine ballot by the end of the month. Campaign activity outside of that is promoting a handful of canvassing activities on weekends.

To his credit, his campaign has far surpassed what many political operatives ever imagined in terms of getting on the ballot in many states. On Thursday, the campaign announced it turned in enough signatures to get on the ballot in Indiana and Colorado. This means he is currently on the ballot in nine states, and submitted enough signatures to eventually get on the ballot in 15 states. There are five other states where the campaign claims to have enough signatures but hasn’t turned them in yet, in some cases because the window to do so hasn’t opened.

Kennedy says he is running in a similar vein as his father did in 1968, which is to challenge those in power.

“I am the only person running for president who has criticized the CIA. I am the only one willing to take on the military industrial complex, the pharmaceutical industry, the mainstream media, all the major power centers,” he said.

But as the political discussion turns to the national conventions and the final stretch of the campaign, Kennedy’s populist pitch could essentially get lost. Much of the campaign is conducted largely through social media. Kennedy told the Globe he would hold his own rallies to demonstrate enthusiasm for his campaign, but they are expensive, especially since he isn’t provided Secret Service protection and must pay for his own security.

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Last summer, Kennedy drew a crowd of 350 people in a rural part of New Hampshire. At his farm policy-themed event in Freeport, there were roughly 130 people.

Kennedy blamed the political establishment, campaign laws, and the media for hobbling his independent run and described it as like having “our hands and feet tied behind our back.”

Indeed, no third-party candidate has won a single electoral vote since 1968, the year Kennedy’s own father sought the presidency before being assassinated.

At the Freeport farm event, Kennedy began by describing the problems with modern farming, but at one point it slipped into a conversation about raw milk, which hasn’t been pasteurized to kill harmful bacteria.

At one point, Kennedy was interviewing local farmers on stage who mentioned that they sell raw milk. Kennedy turned to the crowd and asked how many drank raw milk. Roughly half raised their hands, some giving loud cheers and whoops.

Public health experts warn consumers against consuming such milk, but its proponents do not accept what the experts say.

“Just like vaccines,” one member of the crowd offered, aligning with Kennedy’s own skepticism over some vaccines.

Time, it is said, is the campaign’s most valuable asset. This is especially true the closer it gets to Election Day.

The morning after the Freeport event, Kennedy climbed aboard a wooden fishing trawler called the Susan and Jessica for more than three hours at sea, leaving from Portland and going into Casco Bay. The boat was captained by a twentysomething Kennedy supporter who is a commercial fisherman.

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Kennedy said this is part of his campaign’s focus on “immersion,” where he listens to everyday Americans.

But at one point, he was just fishing.

He caught nothing.


James Pindell can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.