At a Glance
- A broad area of low pressure is organizing over the western Caribbean Sea.
- This low could gradually try to spin up a tropical depression or storm by early week.
- The western Caribbean is an area that has historically seen tropical development in November.
- Patty also spins near the Azores in the north Atlantic.
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The season's next tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the western Caribbean in the coming days while Patty spins closer to Europe.
Here's the latest status on the Caribbean area to watch: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Caribbean Sea (labeled system No. 1 below).
The system will be watched closely to see if it becomes better defined with concentrated thunderstorm activity. If that happens, a tropical depression or storm will likely form early in the week. For now, it has been tagged as Invest 97L. Invests are used by the National Hurricane Center to run specialized computer models on systems of interest.
This system could bring heavy rain to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and possibly Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.
(MORE: What is an Invest?)
The NHC is also watching a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (labeled system No. 2 below) which will bring local flooding rainfall to those areas over the next several days. Its chance of tropical development is low before it combines with the aforementioned Caribbean disturbance.
The third and final system being watched by the NHC is in the Northern Atlantic. The system became Subtropical Storm Patty early Saturday and will bring gusty conditions to the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula through early week.
The next Atlantic storm name is Rafael.
Here's where the potential Caribbean system might track: The NHC says the eventual broad Caribbean area of low pressure will only drift slowly to the north or northwest through the next several days. Regardless if it becomes a tropical depression or storm during that time, it will bring heavy rain to adjacent land areas in the western Caribbean.
It's possible this system could head into the Gulf of Mexico sometime mid- to late week, but there is no guarantee it will bring any significant impacts to the U.S. Gulf Coast. That's because wind shear, dry air and cooling Gulf waters might be hostile factors to its ability to stay organized or even remain intact as it tracks farther north.
Residents, however, should monitor the situation over the next several days until the forecast becomes clearer.
The Caribbean is a typical late-season storm formation location. Tropical storm formation chances dwindle as we enter the final month of hurricane season.
(MORE: What To Know About Hurricane Season's Final Stretch)
Historically, the area in yellow below stretching from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas as well as a separate area in the central Atlantic have had the most instances of named storm formations in November.
The last month of hurricane season generates a storm every one to two years, on average. In the past 10 years, the season's last storm fizzled as early as Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7.
Last year, no storms formed in November.
But 2022 was quite the opposite, with Martin and Nicole developing into November hurricanes. Lisa also intensified into a hurricane during the month after forming as a tropical storm on Oct. 31.
Nicole eventually went on to strike the Atlantic coast of Florida as a Category 1, becoming just the fourth November hurricane to landfall in the mainland U.S. in records dating to the mid-19th century.
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
