Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer

In their latest blog for the Forum for Foreign Relations, Catherine Perez-Shakdam and Stepan Stepanenko deliver a chilling examination of the escalating ISIS threat in Europe, the alarming possibility of ISIS declaring a 'European Caliphate,' and delve into who may benefit from these developments. #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #Security #ForeignPolicy #ISIS #EuropeanCaliphate #SecurityThreats #Extremism #EuropeanStability https://lnkd.in/empAhEch

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RAND ‘s report on wartime #disinformation : Applying lessons learned from #Ukraine to other contexts. 92 pages, 3 chapters, 12 lessons learned : 🪖Before the war: shaping operations. 🔹 2014-22: building government &civil society institutions countering adversary disinformation 🔹 steps to stop the flow of Russian propaganda targeting the country 🔹 intelligence-driven “prebunk” informing international audiences about planned Russian operations 🪖During the war: countering false narratives across the 3 theaters of the information war. 🧰12 lessons learned : 🔸Prepare and plan for 3 theaters of information war, look for innovative ways to reach & communicate with populations in totalitarian countries; rally international institutions to effectively prebunk adversary campaigns targeting the rest of the world; support a broader array of institutions residing in host nations. 🔸Build critical host nation institutions in advance of and during conflict 🔸Build and maintain capacity to counter disinformation: assess own doctrine, training, and wargaming efforts to ensure it is able to counter disinformation during conflict. Ensure that institutions & psychological operations forces retain their capability. 🔸Invest in and work with civil society 🔸Build and maintain trust to effectively dispel adversary narratives. 🔸Work with and empower local and military influencers: promote online voices to help support national security objectives. 🔸Build #resilience of troops: to avoid frontline soldiers being a target of adversary campaigns, undermining their will to fight. Develop a mandatory media literacy education campaign to help deployed and garrison personnel recognize malign influence attempts and foster safer online behavior. 🔸Do not allow coordination to sacrifice speed in responding: the Ukrainian experience highlights the value of a loosely coordinated and redundant network response that involves multiple actors both monitoring media and communicating key narratives. 🔸Be prepared to take risks: accept that government communicators outsource their efforts to creative and agile civil society institutions. Allow communicators to quickly create unique, humorous, and engaging content. 🔸Plan on resourcing and executing 3 critical counterdisinformation tools: Debunking (fact checking), prebunking, and the promulgation of proactive information narratives. Ensure the 3 are integrated in military theaters of operation. 🔸Be prepared to build the capacity of key institutions: In future contingency operations, consider adversary targets for propaganda and disinformation and evaluate the ability of local institutions to effectively respond. 🔸Recognize the risk of waning support over time, as the time engaged in conflict increases and influence of messaging decreases & adversary disinformation narratives may become more influential. Wargame these risks and consider incorporating them in war plans. 👏🏼 Todd Helmus Khrystyna Holynska

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🔵 Missed a panel at #NATOPublicForum? ▶️ Read GMF experts' analyses of the critical issues shaping the future of the alliance, and watch the full recording of the discussions below: https://bit.ly/3Lmxk1d

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🧬 NATO Chief Scientist is launching his Grants Programme dedicated to fostering excellence in science and technology research! 👀What projects can be supported ? Projects in the following areas : 🔹Deterrence and defence 🔹Diversity in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) 🔹Emerging and disruptive technologies 🔹Science and Technology (S&T) resilience 🔹 Science and Technology foresight What to expect ? 🔹 grants ranging from 25,000 euros to 100,000 euros 🔹500,000 euros overall to support research projects focused on advancing science and contributing to global security 🔹Qualifying projects will need to be completed by end of 2025. 🧑‍🔬 Who can apply ? 🔹Researchers from #NATO member countries working for or affiliated with NATO Allied governments, research institutes, non-governmental organizations or the private sector. 🔹Applicants must reside in the country where the institution they are working for is located. 🙋🏽‍♀️The programme particularly encourages applications from women in STEM fields. What the proposals should include : 🔹a forward-looking general problem statement, aiming both for scientific excellence and real-world security impact 🔹An evaluation of the economic viability of the proposals 🔹 examples of Applicant’s experience handling similar projects 🔹An evaluation of potential risks associated with the proposal, and a risk response plan. 📅 When? 🔹Apply NOW until November 15, 2024. 👉🏼Share this great opportunity with researchers who want to contribute to global security and technological advancement! NATO Office of the Chief Scientist (STO-OCS)

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Hope dies last? It has been reported by various media that following the agreement with #Cuba on certain issues (immigration, drug trafficking, law enforcement and terrorism), the United States has removed the island state from its list of countries (NFCC - "Non-Fully Cooperating Countries"), as this is obviously incompatible with remaining on this list. However, it is clear that this has nothing to do with the all-important #SSoT list (State Sponsors of Terrorism), which has a correspondingly dramatic impact on trade with Cuba because it is linked to sanctions that prevent banks and companies worldwide from trading freely with Cuba. Whether the Biden administration will now remove Cuba from this relevant list before the elections in November is highly questionable. On the one hand, the cancellation of the classification depends on the laws and criteria set by the #US Congress, on the other hand, the otherwise domestically relevant topic of "Cuba" is currently not even an issue in the election campaign, as the focus in the US elections is more on other topics. Be realistic ... ... and assume that the attitude of the two political forces in the USA is more like a dogma that will not be shaken by either side, especially as the prevailing opinion is that otherwise the swing state of Florida will be lost. But perhaps Joe Biden will be just as willing to take a similar wise step at the end of his second! term in office - like his former boss Barack Obama, who proved that it is possible to win elections in Florida with a more liberal policy on Cuba. Or demand the impossible... ... and manage to establish or utilise independent financial systems (BRICS, etc.), in other words to build bridges. Hope dies last! #buildingbridges #elpuenteacuba

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🔎 UN Mission Shift in Somalia: UNSOM to UNTMIS: Analysis by Jeanne Mây DESURMONT 🔍 🌎On 31 October 2024, the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) ended, replaced by the UN Transitional Assistance Mission (UNTMIS) as of 1 November under Security Council Resolution 2753. Somalia requested UNSOM’s closure and ATMIS troop withdrawal to boost national security control, citing UN interference. This transition reflects Somalia’s progress, aiming to transfer UNSOM’s roles to the UN Country Team by October 2026.🌎 📌 Key Insights: 1. UNTMIS Goals: Initially focused on state-building, human rights, and the rule of law. 2. Security Concerns: Al-Shabaab still controls southern and central regions, exploiting clan divides. Recent attacks, like August 2024’s Mogadishu bombing, underscore ongoing risks. 3. Humanitarian Crisis: Climate shocks and poverty mean 7.8 million Somalis need aid, with 70% living in poverty and reliant on assistance. 4. Political Tensions: Federal disputes over autonomy hindered UNSOM’s impact, limiting cooperation on urgent issues. UNTMIS signals a recalibrated UN approach to Somalia’s complex challenges. 👉 Click here to learn more: https://lnkd.in/dVuHxe7f 💬 How can the UN best support state-building amid ongoing security threats? Comment down your thoughts                                                #UN #Somalia #UNTMIS #Security #HumanRights

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A truce in gang wars: Viv Ansanm's impact on #Haiti The formation of Viv Ansanm marked a strategic shift as gang leaders united amid a 79% increase in violence between 2021 and 2022. Initially fragile, the alliance solidified after its coordinated attacks on 29 February 2024, which destabilized Prime Minister Ariel Henry's government and led to his resignation, reducing hostilities between factions. According to ACLED data, armed clashes between gangs have decreased by 78% between March and August 2024 compared to the previous six months, with reported fatalities dropping significantly. However, the truce has allowed gangs to continue their activities while consolidating power, expanding their reach across Port-au-Prince, and operating with less internal conflict.   Explore how these developments continue to affect Haiti’s security landscape in our latest report: https://lnkd.in/d6Dj_7bj

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Improvised Mechanical Grenades Produced in the Philippines During February, March and April 2024, Philippine security forces raided camps of groups allied with the New People’s Army, in Abra Province, in the north of the country. During the raids, various equipment was seized, including weapons, small arms ammunition, IEDs, rifle grenades, standard and improvised hand grenades, communications and observation devices, various electric detonators, and batteries. Some of the seized items were indicative of workshops for the production of improvised hand grenades. These included molds and parts of rotating striker fuzes and safety pins for grenades. Additionally, grenades resembling the M26 model with similar mechanisms were seized. The appearance of these items marks a change of direction from what has been hitherto known about improvised NPA ammunition – IEDs documented to date were mostly cased in PVC pipes.   Get the full report: https://lnkd.in/duhnwZgn

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🗞️Disseminating fakes on demand : the latest report by our NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence is out ! “Social Media Manipulation for Sale” describes 2024 experiments to test the Platforms’ capabilities to detect and counter inauthentic social media engagement. 👉🏼Following newly adopted #EU regulations like the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Market Act (DMA), the question was : have the platforms developed capabilities to identify and remove commercial manipulations? Spoiler : only minor improvements were observed across most platforms. 🕵🏼2024 Experiment : purchasing “inauthentic engagement” from commercial social media manipulation services. Lessons learned : 🔹Fake interactions remained prevalent across all platforms 🔹Manipulation services have become increasingly affordable, even from reputable providers, making inauthentic engagement more accessible. 🔹 the majority of clients using manipulation services are commercial entities seeking to promote spam, scams, or other commercial topics 🔹bots are also used to amplify political content to influence public opinion, esp. by amplifying divisive content related to upcoming elections. 🔹 the vulnerability of platforms to manipulation in politically sensitive environments remains a huge challenge 🔹platforms demonstrated significant variation in resilience to inauthentic activity, with notable differences in the ease of registration and the cost of SMS verification. 🔹Most platforms struggled with the removal of fake accounts: X removed 50% of identified fake accounts, TikTok and VKontakte only 3% and 2% respectively 👉🏼The platforms’ efforts to counteract various forms of inauthentic activity (fake likes and views) have been limited & ineffective Why it matters ? malicious actors evade detection by breaking large-scale campaigns into smaller micro-scale operations, using different commercial services, and interacting sporadically with platforms. This they remain undetected 👉🏼Much work left to ensure the integrity of social media ecosystems. Enjoy the read ! 👏🏼Congrats to our #RIGA colleagues ! Janis Sarts #NATO

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The Cluster Munition Coalition (CMC) is extremely disappointed and saddened to report that on 26 July, Lithuania sent a note verbale of its decision to withdraw from the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) to the United Nations Office in Geneva (UNOG) and the CCM Implementation Support Unit. This decision to withdraw, which will take place six months after Lithuania has formally notified CCM States Parties, the UN Treaty Depository, and the UN Security Council, comes despite significant humanitarian, legal, and political costs. The CMC strongly condemns Lithuania’s decision and urges the government of Lithuania to reconsider before the withdrawal becomes final. The Lithuanian President signed the “Law on Denounce of the Convention on Cluster Munitions” on 25 July 2024, following the Parliament's vote in favor of the withdrawal on 18 July. The law was fast-tracked through parliament upon the initiative of the Minister of Defense. "Certain weapons are too horrific to be used under any circumstances. Cluster munitions were banned in 2008 because they cause unacceptable harm to civilians, and data since then proves that the overwhelming majority of casualties are indeed civilians, especially children," said Tamar Gabelnick, Director of the Cluster Munition Coalition. "Given the indiscriminate nature of these weapons at the time of use and for decades afterwards, this tragic decision puts at risk Lithuania’s own citizens for generations to come." Lithuania is the first country to leave a humanitarian disarmament convention, and its decision tarnishes its image as a responsible member of the international community. It also puts it at odds with many of its closest allies, as 124 states have joined the convention, including 24 NATO member states and 21 European Union member states. Several countries and organizations have spoken out publicly and privately against the decision, including the Norwegian Minster of Foreign Affairs, Human Rights Watch, Humanity and Inclusion, Lex International, and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Lithuania’s decision is a highly regrettable step backwards for the convention, and the precedent it sets may have damaging consequences beyond the CCM. “In a short-sighted and self-centered move, Lithuania has decided that its current national security situation justifies doing long-term harm to international humanitarian law. Yet in order for international humanitarian law to effectively protect civilians from armed conflict, such laws must be upheld at all times—especially during periods of heightened insecurity or armed conflict” said Ms. Gabelnick. The Cluster Munition Coalition strongly urges all countries that have banned cluster munitions to denounce Lithuania's decision and call for its return to the convention. For more information, visit the CMC website: www.icblcmc.org

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Tensions between the #Philippines and the People’s Republic of #China (#PRC) remain high due to the ever-increasing presence of the Chinese Coast Guard, People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and Chinese Maritime Militia in contested waters surrounding atolls and islands in the #SouthChinaSea. On the 29th of June, #maritime domain awareness platform #Theia detected more than 200 AIS dark vessels matching the Chinese Maritime Militia's description over the #UnionBanks. Part of the Spratly Islands, the Union Banks are claimed by the PRC, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The PRC's encroachment on the exclusive economic zones (#EEZs) of countries in the region is part of a broader strategy to extend #influence into the South Pacific. By making territorial claims on reefs and atolls strategically located within other countries’ EEZs, the PRC aims to control #chokepoints and extend its control over the region. Theia ingests and analyses more than 20 million KM2 of #satelliteimagery daily, monitoring maritime activity and identifying pattern-of-life (#POL) behavior. Theia’s proprietary #AI technology identifies vessels over 10m, simplifying and streamlining surveillance of territorial waters and allowing for the efficient deployment of maritime assets to critical areas. Contact SynMax to speak to an expert: https://t.co/JLOS3mfgJT #maritimesecurity #geopolitics #southpacific #datafusion #chinesemaritimemilitia #geospatial #actionableintelligence #whyguesswhenyoucanknow

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📣 Published in the Journal of Liberty and International Affairs 📣 "Control of Irregular Migration and Suppression of People Smuggling on the Western Balkan Route" Read the article at: https://lnkd.in/d4pYt6Jk Authors: Bojan Jankovic University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies - Belgrade, Serbia Sasa Markovic University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies - Belgrade, Serbia Aleksandar Ivanov Faculty of Security - Skopje, University “St. Kliment Ohridski” - Bitola, North Macedonia Abstract: The subject of this paper is irregular migration and modern models of preventing the smuggling of migrants on the part of the Western Balkan route through the Republic of Serbia. The goal is to show how the new strategic approach of the Serbian police in this area can give excellent results, that the application of modern methods of policing and technical means are aimed at preventing the smuggling of migrants, i.e., the illegal movement and transport of migrants across the state border and state territory to go to countries of the European Union. Based on the conducted research, the authors have drawn certain conclusions: 1) effectiveness, efficiency, and economy in the area of suppression of irregular migration can be achieved by applying an adequate criminal strategy, 2) the new strategic approach led to the discovery and arrest of a large number of people smugglers and the discovery of illegal firearms, 3) the use of modern technical means, coordinated, joint work of different police units and management from a single center by a strategic level manager directly in charge of combating irregular migration and human smuggling in a particular area (territory) which is estimated to be a hotspot of criminal activity, is a prerequisite for success. Keywords: #Security, #IrregularMigration, #WesternBalkans, #EuropeanUnion, #Police, #Smuggling #jlia

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