For much of 2024, it seemed clear enough that the contest to win the 2025 Grammy award for album of the year came down to a three-way contest between Beyoncé, Billie Eilish and Taylor Swift. But as summer gave way to fall, an album that came out all the way back in 2023 surged forward to look like an equally strong contender for the ’25 trophy: Chappell Roan’s insurgent “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.” As our possible usurper might say, “Good luck, babes” — it’s all but officially a four-woman race to claim that prize now.
With the first ballot having gone out to Grammy voters on Friday morning, Variety is forecasting the likely nominees in the Grammys’ top four all-genre categories. Barring any ties, there will be eight artists or tracks nominated in each of these four divisions (down from 10 nominees after going up from five, in case you missed the expansions and reduction of the past six years). In each case, we doubled our possible luck by picking 16 possible contenders for the eight slots, to cover a wide range of possibilities. But lest we succumb to cowardice, we did also narrow things down to point out the eight we believe are likeliest to be announced by the Recording Academy on Nov. 8.
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Roan’s album was a debut, of course, which means that she has a chance to sweep all four of these all-genre categories. Billie Eilish did it by winning album, record, song and new artist in 2020 — and headline writers everywhere would love it if someone were to pull that off this time. But it’s worth remembering how rarely that happens: Before Eilish, Christopher Cross was the last artist to pull off that quadruple-crown, all the way back in 1981. So the odds of Roan pulling that off in 2025 aren’t in her favor…. nor would they be for Carpenter, who also has a shot in all four categories. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves by predicting the final winners; there’ll be plenty of time for that between the unveiling of the noms in November and the Feb. 2 telecast.
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For now, we’re sticking our necks out far enough by winnowing down these wide-open fields, with any kind of predictions being a fool’s errand when the Grammys are so much harder to soothsay right than the Oscars or Emmys. So, remember, kids, Variety’s past performance is no guarantee of future results — but we did nail six out of eight album nomination predictions this past year.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Eight leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short N’ Sweet”
Charli XCX, “Brat”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine”
Post Malone, “F-1 Trillion”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
Eight more that could get in:
Doja Cat, “Scarlet”
Future & Metro Boomin, “We Don’t Trust You”
Kacey Musgraves, “Deeper Well”
Chris Stapleton, “Higher”
Tyla, “Tyla”
Kali Uchis, “Orquídeas”
Vampire Weekend, “Only God Was Above Us”
Lainey Wilson, “Whirlwind”
As stated earlier, there are four likely horses in this race: Bey, Tay, Billie and Chappell. The first three of those are perennial Grammy favorites and constant entrants in this field. Swift is the only artist ever to have won album of the year four times, the most recent of which was in February, for “Midnights.” You can debate whether that makes her the front-runner this time or actually sets her at a disadvantage, if voters think she’s won enough. But the days in which she was not guaranteed a nod in the for an all-new release (remember when “Reputation” and “Lover” didn’t get nominated?) seem to be safely behind her now; the only question is whether “Tortured Poets” can go the distance.
Beyoncé has never won album of the year — this is one of our culure’s greatest grievances, so perhaps you’ve heard! — despite being nominated on her last four solo releases. A fifth nomination is almost a certainty for “Cowboy Carter.” Will it finally be her time? Earlier in 2024, Variety published a column titled “Is Beyoncé’s ‘Cowboy Carter’ an Unstoppable Frontrunner for the Album of the Year Grammy?,” which was a very reasonable question to pose, between her “She’s overdue” status (not that that helped before) and the sheer cultural ubiquity and critical acclaim this semi-country album enjoyed. A win for her no longer seems as inevitable as it did toward the beginning of the year, as the album has kind of fallen off the public radar, with no music videos, touring, further radio singles or other promotion to keep it high in the cultural consciousness. She’s still a front-runner, and certainly will continue to be cited as deserving, but the competition has heated up.
Is Roan the real dark horse? There’s certainly a case to be made for it, and it’ll be made stronger if her debut album — released way back in September 2023 — finally manages to move up into the top slot on the Billboard 200, something it’s threatened to do for weeks, although brand-new releases have kept it bubbling under as a constant in the No. 2 slot. Going into the voting process, anyway, no one’s star is shining any brighter or higher.
Eilish has reached the point where her greatness could be taken for granted, although she’s been the Grammy darling of the past five years. And it’s worth noting that “Hit Me Hard and Soft” generated three simultaneous hit singles upon coming out in the spring, a feat that no other album in the running can also claim. Probably no expert is going to make an outright prediction that Eilish will beat Roan, Swift and Beyoncé — but probably no one with any sense is going to scoff at the possibility, either.
If these four are locked in, the remaining slots in the album of the year lineup are harder to pin down. Earlier in the year, Variety ran a column asking: “Will Men Be Shut Out of Album of the Year for the First Time?” Since then, Post Malone has come up as a contender with his full-scale move into country. Of the top eight we’re predicting, Malone’s may be the longest shot, or at least one that is on the bubble for a nomination, since it’s not the kind of album that is likely to top many critics’ 10 best lists, and country has had a hard time fielding any candidates in this category in recent years. But Posty thoroughly endeared himself to the Nashville community with his highly collaborative effort (it consists almost entirely of superstar duets), and it’s hardly difficult to envision Music City voters coalescing in support for a project that features so many of the genre’s top names, i.e., their friends.
Getting back to the women that otherwise dominated pop this year, Carpenter, Grande and Charli XCX seem likely to see their massive popularity translate into votes for well-reviewed efforts. But the Recording Academy could well give one-time album-of-the-year winner Kacey Musgraves a return ticket; her determinedly quiet effort has continued to attract applause for her willingness to keep following her mellow arrow. Straight country and hip-hop tend to be also-rans when voters are casting ballots in these top four categories, which covers most of the other outside-chancers.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Eight leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Hozier, “Too Sweet”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Eight more that could get in:
Charli XCX, “360”
Doja Cat, “Agora Hills”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Teddy Swims, “Lose Control”
SZA, “Saturn”
SONG OF THE YEAR
Eight leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”
Hozier, “Too Sweet”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Eight more that could get in:
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please”
Doja Cat, “Agora Hills”
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Kacey Musgraves, “Deeper Well”
Teddy Swims, “Lose Control”
SZA, “Saturn”
Although song of the year and record of the year are based primarily on songwriting and production, respectively, the categories traditionally have enough overlap that it’s worth considering them together. The area where they might differ is most likely to come up with something like Shaboozey’s massive country and pop hit “A Bar Song,” which stands a strong chance for a record of the year nod but is less likely to be honored for its songwriting, since the Academy is traditionally lukewarm on tunes driven by interpolations.
The front-runners here are not necessarily the same as they are in the album field, especially since Lamar is a leading candidate who didn’t even have an album out in the eligibility period. The chances for “Not Like Us” could be hobbled by the fact that it’s a diss track, and Academy voters might disfavor something as ephemeral as a rap beef. Yet it was a huge hit, and anyone who is inclined to favor hip-hop at all will channel that energy here, as a reward for Lamar represents the only serious chance to see the genre prevail in any of the big four categories.
The women who are contending so strongly for album of the year each face tougher odds for any individual tracks from those recordings, because support for the Beyoncé, Swift or Roan albums is really about spreading the love among multiple songs off those projects. (Of course, Roan’s shot in these two categories is for a track that isn’t even on her breakout album.)
The songs that really felt like they owned the year, besides Lamar’s, are “Espresso,” “I Had Some Help” and “A Bar Song” — any of which could be seen as too lightweight to be named record of the year, however strong their charms. “I Had Some Help” is the big question mark as far as nominations go, since Morgan Wallen, the featured artist on the Post Malone smash, has never received a Grammy nomination before and continues to be polarizing. But the CMAs sure love that track, which just picked up multiple nominations there, and that Nashville support could mean Wallen finally breaks into the nominees’ circle.
One big question going into the first ballot was: Will Carpenter submit “Espresso” or “Please Please Please” in top categories, since those songs have been roughly equally successful — with the former having a slight edge in terms of pure numbers and the latter maybe being favored by true fans? She or her people took a page out of the Swift playbook by submitting one (“Espresso”) for record of the year and the other (“Please…”) for song of the year. (Interestingly, Swift did not take that page out of her own playbook this year, submitting “Fortnight” for both, when she could have also gone with “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” for one or the other.) It’s a strong possibility that Carpenter will join Roan in having a nomination in all four general-field categories.
As for what will surely be the Beatles’ last shot at being nominated, it’s a long shot; the tune assembled by Paul McCartney from past scraps was beloved by some fans, not so much by others. But if the reunited ABBA was able to pick up surprising Grammy support a couple of years ago, there could be enough sentimentality here to at least garner the Fabs a valedictory nomination of their own.
If by chance you are wondering where Zach Bryan is in any of this, well, so are we. Variety was prepared to list Bryan’s “Pink Skies” as at least a decent possibility to get a nod for song of the year, with his recent album also standing a chance — but then the ballot was sent out to voters and it turned out he had not submitted himself in a single category.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Eight leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Raye
Chappell Roan
Sexxy Red
Shaboozey
Brittney Spencer
Teddy Swims
Eight more that could get in:
Feid
Sierra Ferrell
GloRilla
Megan Moroney
Reneé Rapp
Tommy Richman
Nate Smith
Tems
Finally, a category where it feels like we already have a pre-determined winner, let alone nominee. Best new artist is Roan’s to lose, even if there will likely be some votes siphoned off by Carpenter, who undoubtedly is loved by much the same factions of Academy members that would naturally go for Roan. (Carpenter’s first album was released nearly 10 years ago, when she was 15, and her latest is her sixth, but that certainly hasn’t stopped the Academy before; the Grammys gave it to Shelby Lynne after her reinvention on a sixth album.)
Those two are obvious locks for nominations, anyway. If they were to split some votes in the final balloting, the likeliest beneficiaries would be either Boone, who fits a particular niche for sincere male pop artists that has gone largely unfilled on a massive scale in recent years, or Shaboozey, who fits the rare niche of Black artists skirting the line between country and hip-hop (his presence on two “Cowboy Carter” tracks won’t hurt, either).
Purer forms of country tend to be undervalued in this category — Lainey Wilson failed to score a best new artist nomination last year, shockingly — so it’s anyone’s guess whether an artist as acclaimed as even Moroney could break the logjam. Spencer feels like she has a decent shot at sneaking into the category, with some love of her own in the Beyonce universe, plus the thought that the strong Black women of country need to get their due somewhere. Speaking of genres that the Academy has been undervaluing in top categories, there’s Latin music… and if last year wasn’t a chance for those sounds to get into the big four, this one won’t likely be either, with a less obvious crop of contenders than got ignored last time around. Yet best new artist is a place where almost anything could happen — including a nod for Feid, who certainly hasn’t been ignored when the Latin Grammys come around.
