Seriös ONE - Football Insights

Newcastle's emphatic 4-0 away win at Ipswich Town showcased a dominant performance from start to finish, with Alexander Isak stealing the spotlight by netting a hat-trick with three clinical finishes. While Isak earned the headlines, Jacob Murphy proved instrumental, contributing with a goal and an assist – mirroring his impactful performances against Leicester and Brentford. This resurgence in form for both Newcastle and Murphy could be attributed to Eddie Howe's decision to play Tonali in the number 6 position, allowing Bruno G to operate further forward and predominantly on the right hand side as the number 8. Something Howe alluded to in his post match interview. During the victory at Portman Road, 48% of Newcastle's in-game actions in the opposition's half took place on the right hand side. With Tonali and Bruno G always looking to play forward, it's no surprise to see Murphy getting opportunities to impact the game. Will Newcastle showcase some much needed consistency and make a push for a place in next seasons European competitions? #NUFC #ITFC #PremierLeague

Russell Martin has earned recognition in recent years for his distinct managerial identity and unwavering philosophy on how football should be played. This style of play attracted interest from Southampton, where he guided the club to promotion for the 2024/2025 Premier League season.   However, the Premier League has been less forgiving. Martin’s side have won just one of 16 matches, amassing only five points. Critics argue Southampton should adapt their style against stronger opponents - a debate also raised about Burnley last season. Notably, Southampton leads the league in short goal kicks, with 84% played to teammates inside their box and just 11% sent into their attacking two-thirds of the pitch - a stark contrast to fellow newcomers Ipswich (55%) and Leicester (45%) who opt for a more direct route.   As they head to Craven Cottage on Sunday, the spotlight will be on whether Southampton stick to their possession heavy philosophy or shift approach in a bid to survive in the Premier League. #SaintsFC #PremierLeague #FFC #ITFC #LCFC

Our post last Friday was all about conceding goals in the opening 15 minutes of a game. Although on Sunday Man City did survive the first 15 minutes, they succumbed to defeat by conceding two late goals to Man United resulting in another disappointing outcome for Guardiola.    Taking our attention back to the early goals, Southampton conceded three in the opening 15 minutes against Spurs. This included James Maddison's opener scored after just 36 seconds which came from the opening sequence of the match (visualised below). This involved eight of their players and 36 passes before Maddison found himself one on one with Alex McCarthy. The rest is history, as is Russell Martin's time at Southampton. With just five points from 16 games, they find themselves bottom of the table and in search of a new formula to try and ensure survival.   #COYS #SaintsFC #PremierLeague

A recent article from Sky Sports has revealed that Crystal Palace identified a weakness in City's play, which they looked to exploit through playing with a high intensity and running in behind during transitions. https://lnkd.in/g-jv_AAW   We have taken this one step further and identified that Man City seem to be particularly vulnerable in the first 15 minutes of a game. No team has conceded more goals than they have in this time period (seven goals). Additionally, they also rank in the top 2 for 'xG per shot conceded' indicating they’re allowing high-quality chances - something we've flagged in a previous post.   This weekend, they face their Manchester rivals in what is shaping up to be a very important game for both sides. Good news for Man City is that no team has scored fewer goals in the opening 15 minutes than Man United (1 goal).   Will this be the right fixture at the right time for Guardiola? 🤔 #MUFC #MCFC #PremierLeague

Arsenal’s success at the top level in recent seasons has been significantly influenced by their effective use of set pieces, particularly corners. Nicolas Jover, Arsenal's set-piece coach, plays a visible role on the touchline as Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka step up to deliver crosses. Unsurprisingly, Saka and Rice rank 1st and 2nd in the league for expected assists (xA) from set plays.   When it comes to first contact locations, 47% of Arsenal's deliveries target the six yard box - a higher proportion than any other team. While Gabriel has been a key aerial threat, Arsenal have adapted seamlessly in his absence, scoring two goals from corners against Manchester United and another against Fulham at the weekend.   With set pieces proving to be such a potent weapon in their arsenal (pun intended), the team will be hoping that their dominance in this area can provide the edge needed to carry them to a Premier League title.   #AFC #COYG

Having spent nearly eighteen months on the South Coast, Andoni Iraola continues to demonstrate his tactical acumen, which has given Bournemouth a decisive edge in many of their Premier League matches this season. Most notably, they secured consecutive home victories against Arsenal and Manchester City. Over the course of the season, Bournemouth rank fourth in the league for expected goals (xG), behind Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Meanwhile, only four teams have a lower expected goals against (xGA), highlighting their efficiency in both attack and defence. This is further reflected in their xG difference (xGD) per fixture. In only three of their fourteen matches have their opponents recorded a higher xG. Additionally, in four of their five defeats (labelled on the graph), Bournemouth’s xG indicated they created the better chances, raising the question: could they have already been sitting in a European spot? Their current form is further emphasised by their two highest xG differences coming in their last two games, including the match against Spurs last night. A trip to Portman Road awaits them this Sunday as they face relegation threatened Ipswich Town. With such promising underlying metrics, could Bournemouth emerge as dark horses for an exceptional second half of the season and climb even higher than ninth? #AFCB #PremierLeague

They say, "the best form of defence is attack," and that certainly seems true - especially for those who play FPL. This weekend's Premier League fixtures saw just four clean sheets across 20 teams. Meanwhile, defenders were involved at the other end of the pitch. Tariq Lamptey and Nathan Collins provided assists and Milos Kerkez made his mark with a goal, but Daniel Muñoz stood out as the star performer. He racked up an xG of 0.88 with three shots, including a dramatic added-time equaliser against Newcastle. Gabriel (who else?) gave Arsenal an early lead with a header from a corner, but the game also delivered surprises as both of West Ham's full-backs found the back of the net. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the defenders who’ve posed the highest attacking threat so far this season, based on their combined expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA). Will you use this insight to guide your future transfers? 👀 #FPL #PremierLeague

Pep Guardiola’s side are now six games without a win across all competitions, including three league matches - a run that has left them eight points adrift at the top of the table.   The issue isn’t the volume of shots they’re facing; in fact, their shots against are the same as Liverpool’s over the last three games. The real concern is the quality of chances they’re conceding. City’s xG per shot is double that of Liverpool’s, leading to more goals conceded. Meanwhile, Liverpool have conceded the fewest goals this season and kept the most clean sheets.   Pep will be desperate for a favourable fixture to turn things around. Unfortunately, next up... Mo Salah at Anfield.   #LFC #MCFC #PremierLeague

Ipswich Town 1️⃣ - 1️⃣ Man United   Ruben Amorim’s first game in charge saw United gain a point away at Portman Road, which isn’t the ideal start to his tenure. Additionally, xG data shows they may have been fortunate as Andre Onana made two superb saves either side of Hutchinson’s 43rd minute equaliser to deny Liam Delap.   Ipswich’s xG of 1.6 was in fact their highest at home so far this season, whilst United’s xG of 0.8 was their 2nd lowest away from home this season.   #ITFC #MUFC 

Passes per Defensive Actions (PPDA) - measures pressing intensity in the attacking 60% of the pitch 📏 Field Tilt - measures possession in the final 3rd 🔝   Man City 🆚 Spurs The data shows that Spurs have been pressing from the front the most this season as they have the lowest PPDA in the league 🏅   Man City have been dominant in the final 3rd with a field tilt of 79% with Spurs ranking 2nd for this metric.    With both managers fixated on their identity, there’ll be a battle for who can hold onto possession the most high up the pitch.    These metrics combine to provide a visual that suggests Saturday's 5.30pm kick off will be a cracker 🤩   #MCFC #COYS