Will Henshall

great article on how to summarise technical research for non-technical audiences. (but i winced at the section on jargon - is it too much to expect the audience to know what a standard deviation is?!)

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Last week, I provided UK General Election analysis for BBC Radio Newcastle and Tees, available at https://lnkd.in/ewChnAVK and https://lnkd.in/eVRcbgau. On Thursday night as the exit poll came out, it was clear that Labour had achieved an impressive landslide in terms of seats won. But it was also clear that it was (somehow) an under-performance compared with almost every poll over the last couple of years. Indeed, while the Conservatives were devastated by their worst-ever result, they weren't obliterated into a potential first-ever third place as polls were sometimes predicting. On Friday afternoon, my initial reactions were confirmed as it became clear that Labour had managed to lose more than 500,000 votes compared with their 2019 performance which was regarded as a devastating loss by many who are now on the Labour front bench. It is essential that the Labour leadership understand that the only reason for their victory this time was a massive split on the political right. To avoid a reversal at the next election similar to that just experienced by the Conservatives, Labour must make a real, large and rapid difference to people's everyday lives. That can only be achieved through public investment and bold policy on the scale of 1945's transformative Labour programme built on the Beveridge Report. Fortunately, it just so happens that the Common Sense Policy Group (https://lnkd.in/e8DGVD9P), of which I am a member, has released Act Now: A vision for a better future and a new social contract (https://lnkd.in/eTnMYtaK) which sets out just such a programme that is affordable, feasible and popular with the public. Labour cannot afford to wait if it wants to secure the next election and the decade of national renewal that the Prime Minister has spoken of. It must Act Now. #ActNow #CommonSensePolicyGroup Gemma Brown (Somerville) Northumbria University Matthew Johnson Howard Reed Graham Stark Jennifer Nadel FRSA Kate Pickett Ian Robson Cat Hobbs Hugo Fearnley

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There has been a lot of talk recently in the UK (election year!) on raising public sector investments in specific areas without necessarily being explicit about the trade-offs involved. Eg more money for defence, but does that imply deep cuts elsewhere in the absence of tax rises? Increasingly there is a need to consider the impact of investment/disinvestment decisions in one sector on outcomes in other sectors. This is perhaps seen most clearly with calls for’whole of government’/cross sectoral approaches to health and wellbeing. How can health economics support the appropriate framing for how we consider such multi sectoral impacts to inform resource allocation choices? Standard CBA and CEA just won’t cut it, as this excellent paper by Longo et al demonstrates. But it also exposes the significant data gaps faced by any attempt at implementing a social decision making approach, and relatedly, the enormous challenge of developing effective coordination mechanisms across the public sector and beyond.

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We've just launched two new reports showcasing PolicyEngine's unique behavioral response capabilities. 1. In the UK, only PolicyEngine provides public access to capital gains microsimulation analysis--and we model capital gains responses, to boot. With a -0.5 elasticity, behaviour halves our revenue projection from the capital gains tax increase that the Labour Party (UK) is expected to announce in the Autumn Budget next week. https://lnkd.in/esQHEtkD 2. In the US, we model behavioral effects of federal tax reforms--and how they intersect with benefits and state taxes. In this case, we project that Kamala Harris's proposal to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for filers without qualifying dependents will (applying Congressional Budget Office elasticities): a) Cost state and local governments about $2 billion per year, due both to their EITC matches and the feedback effects from earnings changes; and b) Cost the federal government about $2 billion per year in additional spending on benefits like SNAP, because the phase-out lowers earnings. https://lnkd.in/eWzupGwC We're grateful to Arnold Ventures for supporting our work to add behavioral responses to PolicyEngine, enabling anyone to quickly test different policies and elasticities with our comprehensive open-source model and web app. We'll be sharing our full methodology soon, in the meantime always glad to answer questions on it.

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Personally I think it's good to take a step back and find a clearer path from AI development to public welfare, and design a public compute policy that is aligned with this path, before committing very large amounts of money to public compute. https://lnkd.in/g66VQx5g

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📣 📣 The 2nd Manchester Prize is open for  #international solutions which partner with a lead UK-based organisation. Innovators from across the UK - and external partners - can support the UK’s push to reach net zero targets as the #UK government pushes forward the use of technology, including #AI, to deliver new #clean #energy systems. The second Manchester Prize will be awarded to the most innovative and impactful AI solution enabling the UK to accelerate progress towards a net zero energy system. Up to 10 of the most promising solutions will each be supported with £100,000 in seed funding, up to £60,000 of compute and additional non-financial support to develop products and services capable of winning the £1 million grand prize in spring 2026. #innovation #canada #ai #collaboration #uk #energy #netzero Further information 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 https://lnkd.in/e2D9Madf

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Excellent workshop today re launch of #BMJ collection of articles on how research can address future health shocks. Was a pleasure to work with Michael Lawrie Mike Clemence at Ipsos UK on , alongside my colleagues RAND Europe and The Strategy Unit on a project looking at the future long term research agenda to support resilience, supported by The Health Foundation . Hope to be able to share some insights from this project soon. In the meantime, check out the BMJ collection: https://lnkd.in/eVADXgtC A few key insights that struck me today: - how essential it is to support interdisciplinary and cross sector research, but the system needs to be designed to enable genuine interdisciplinarity - how neglected research on the workforce is - how important it is not to isolate ourselves from international and also four nations learning. - how an engaged public is essential - how much we need to improve science to policy communication - the need for more evidence synthesis - bringing together what is known in user friendly and timely ways Individually the need for this is obvious. the solution to enabling it less so and in much need of further research and systems shaping...

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Useful collection of essays from Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) exploring these crucial questions of how to harness the power of AI for public good.

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The Case for a UK Centre for Soft Power Research The UK's global influence increasingly depends on its capacity to shape preferences and attract allies through soft power, yet we lack a dedicated research centre to study how we can effectively deploy our cultural, diplomatic and institutional assets. I explore this challenge in my latest piece for ICR Research, making the case for establishing a UK Centre for Soft Power Research. Unlike economic policy, where institutions like the Institute for Fiscal Studies provide rigorous independent analysis, our approach to soft power research remains fragmented across universities, think tanks and government departments. This fragmentation means we're missing opportunities to leverage our considerable soft power resources—from education and creative industries to scientific research and democratic institutions. I propose a practical two-stage approach, beginning with an FCDO development grant scheme to build momentum for a major Research Council bid. The resulting centre would follow a hub and spoke model, bringing together existing expertise while fostering new academic leadership in this emerging field. You can read the full analysis on the ICR Research website, where I outline how this modest investment could help maintain British influence in a changing world. https://lnkd.in/eEYUE2Hm #softpower #research #policy

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We were delighted to launch our new More in Common UCL Policy Lab study yesterday looking at what happened during the 2024 General Election and what voters expectations are for what comes next. Using polling and focus group research of more than 10,000 people in the week after the election and more than 60 focus groups, during and after the election campaign we explore how 'Change' - rooted in improvement of public services (and particularly the NHS) but also in a new settlement between politicians and voters rooted in respect - can act as a antidote to the cynicism, apathy and sense of futility that dominated much of the election campaign. Labour's new electoral Coalition spans across different geographic, ideological and demographic groups, a Coalition of pragmatism rather than of pure principle. That new coalition enabled Labour to win a big majority on a relatively low share of the vote. But despite that low vote share there is no doubt that the public think Labour has a mandate for change - in fact 67% of the public, including majorities of those who voted Conservative or for Reform UK think that Starmer now has a majority to change Britain. However the onus now - from both a position of pure politics and maintaining that transactional coalition, but also for people's faith and confidence in Government as a whole - is to deliver on that change and to make people feel that Britain works again, and works for ordinary people. For the Conservative's the message is clear that the route back to Government starts with restoring a reputation for competence, and demonstrating respect for the electorate. Chasing one ideological pole or another will only have limited gains. The Conservatives will have to win back some of those who switched to Reform UK on the right, those who switched to Labour and the Liberal Democrats on the left - but also the large group of 2019 Conservative voters who through loss of trust in the party sat at home - for 77% of these non voters it was the first time they hadn't voted for the party. The report stresses the need for all British politicians to learn from the experiences of those who have failed to quell the populist tide in Europe and elsewhere to avoid making the same mistakes here. The 2024 election represents a clear demand for change from the British public, but delivering on this mandate will require navigating low trust in politicians and institutions. The new government must focus on tangible improvements to people's lives while demonstrating respect for ordinary citizens to rebuild faith in politics itself. Lots more I could add, but please do take a look at the full report and let us know what you think. https://lnkd.in/eremVHHE

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Lots of what we do in policy is utter crap, isn't it? I really enjoyed this blog from Alex Chalmers and Anastasia Bektimirova which sets out how some of the things that pass for policy work aren't going to shift the dial on... anything. Yet Another Roundtable and "implausibly precise future prediction" are longstanding bugbears of mine, and it's great that I am not alone. A confession: I am guilty of producing some of this crap too I suppose my question is - why do we keep doing the crap? What would it take to make us stop? Part of the challenge I think is that some of the crap is the stuff that people outside policy recognise as policy work. Are we stuck in a loop of doing crap work because it's what our funders and organisations expect of us, partly that's because they see everyone else doing it? https://lnkd.in/eeZs4EA6

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An excellent discussion of the importance of fairness in our industrial decarbonisation journey, with some fascinating case studies, by my colleague William Carr - take a look!

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Last week, Verian Group launched our new Guide to Evaluation of Value for Money in UK Public Services. In this follow-up I share and expand on a few excerpts from the guide. Although written from a UK perspective, the general principles about integrating insights from economic analysis with wider #evaluation criteria and evidence apply anywhere (👋 Hi NZ & AU!)👇 https://lnkd.in/gri_E9CD #Impact #CBA #VfM #ValueForInvestment #EvidenceBasedPolicy #FuturePublicValue #Socialinvestment Alex Hurrell

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This will be very worth attending. Alex has been kind enough to let me read a draft of his paper. It’s a very important contribution to the debate on public sector productivity. It shows how conventional understandings of the idea are destined to fail and how we need a human-centred, holistic approach to generate real gains. Keep an eye out for the paper and do attend this event if you can. #publicservices #DoWith #localgov

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Some early reflections from the team here at UCL Policy Lab At what will be a bruising time for some many friends and folks I greatly admire, I also know that when the dust settles there will be a new generation working to change things for the better. "It will be necessary for Democrats to reflect on what went wrong and what they need to do differently next time. There were obvious missteps along the way - it was clear to the world, and most Americans, that President Biden was too old, and withdrew from the race too late. Similar echoes of the 1960s were also seen with foreign affairs deeply dividing the left’s base. Yet, it’s also worth reflecting on the need for Democrats, and those who share their politics more broadly, to once again confront how many ordinary Americans view them as distant from their everyday concerns. As David Axelrod recently summarised, the Democratic Party still seems to approach non-college-educated Americans like "missionaries or anthropologists" always with a message that says “we're here to help you become more like us”. On the economy, progressives have found out the hard way that a failure to deliver on the everyday economy alongside the long term can be costly. As has been mentioned in previous discussions with US colleagues, there is a real need to invest in infrastructure, particularly the technology needed for net zero. Yet there is also a need to focus on the everyday economy, wages, and broader support for ordinary workers. This work is now more urgent than ever".

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How have financial pressures facing local government shifted in recent years? How are councils responding to unprecedented fiscal pressures? New research collaboration between New Local & International Public Policy Observatory at UCL will be exploring these questions and making practical and policy recommendations. We’ll announce full details of the project shortly and how #localgov colleagues can get involved, but early findings from our recent scoping workshop are sobering. - Big structural pressures like ageing and wealth inequality have been compounded by the pandemic and cost of living crisis: councils are dealing with the consequences of this. There has been a sustained rise in demand for adult social care (working age adults are fastest rising cohort), children’s social care, SEN and homelessness. - The connection between how local government is funded and what it needs to deliver has been lost. This is the context of a few councils “going bust” and some others approaching the brink of doing so. - Layered onto this public sector funding failure, councils must deal with the consequences of an array of broken private markets – for social care placements, temporary accommodation and children’s homes. Providers are increasingly dominated by actors and people in it for profit, with weak regulation to curtail this. - The Government’s reliance on short term measures like mass capitalisations does not give confidence that the seriousness of the situation is understood at Whitehall. In terms of how this is affecting councils, some reflections: - The ongoing cost of living crisis is weakening the ability to do prevention in previous ways, such is the continuing flow of people needing support. Focused preventative work with one group might stop them tipping into acute need, but they will be fast replaced by a new cohort. - Increasingly, there is no such thing as a separate preventative service anymore: all universal services need to have a strong aspect of prevention. It is essential to do as much as possible for someone in the first contact they have with the council, to maximise that connection. - Staff are exhausted. Levels of optimism and resilience within the workforce are weakened by years of making decisions under austerity, then the pandemic response, which immediately transitioned into the cost-of-living crisis response and hasn’t let up. There are broadly two choices facing the sector: continue on trajectory of cutting back, becoming smaller and doing less, OR identify a new operating model that takes a whole system approach locally, hardwires prevention and shifts towards long term sustainability. Of course, we at New Local choose the second option and our research will explore what that direction looks like. How do these early reflections chime with the experience of other local government colleagues? We are keen to hear your experiences and insights – please get in touch if you’d like to participate in the research.

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New article in Public Sector Focus 📰https://lnkd.in/ecPrbkcT It draws on the findings of our Forgotten Generation report, which looks at how we can shape better services for the next generation: https://lnkd.in/eGCCNXN6

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In politics, one of the most senior titles you can have is “General Consultant”. Kind of unassuming, no? “Chief of Staff” or “Political Director” are way sexier in my opinion… But the latter two roles actually have very distinct jobs to do. There’s variation depending on the size of the campaign or issue group, But ultimately the CoS runs all the operations and the Political Director makes the calls related to messaging. But what does a “GC” do? Well, we assemble campaign or issue group teams. I find the role most similar to a film producer. Not because the end product, but in terms of their speciality in pulling together all the relevant parts. Film producers find writers, investors, filmmakers, directors, etc. We evaluate the race, budget, candidates and needs. We have previous relationships with vendors Need an ad made? We got you Need to run a poll? We got you Need opposition research? We got you Need an ad placed on Hulu? We got you Need to raise money? We got you Need a campaign manager? We might even be able to help you there. So what does all this mean? General Consultants own relationships, evaluate what they need and cobble the pieces together. They also tend to have an expertise themselves based on their own backgrounds. GCs are a tremendously important part of all campaigns. The bigger the race the more that’s true. Pretty much all of your favorite, and least favorite, elected officials work with GCs regularly. #politics #election2024 #government

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It was a pleasure to participate in the Institute for Government Public Services Conference with fellow panellists Paul Johnson, Rupert Harrison and rachel sylvester, and in collaboration with UCL Public Policy.   💡💡 I strongly believe we need a new integrated and place-based approach to delivering public services.   🏥 We need to look at the tipping points where different public services intersect, which will allow us to cascade benefits in other areas of public services. 🚇 We need to consider strategies for leveraging public services to influence and shape markets, aiming to drive the economy towards the outcomes we want. 🎯 We need to focus on these principles instead of being concerned about immediate financial investments, while correlations between spending and results are uncertain.   👉 Join me in the UCL Institute for Global Prosperity’s mission to create social, economic and ecological transformations: https://lnkd.in/d_wqP4CG   👉 Watch the event recording: https://lnkd.in/d_ej-qar   #PublicServices #UniversalBasicServices #SpendingReview Photo credit: Institute for Government

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