Utsav Mitra

Bannerman Energy Ltd / Shaw and Partners Nuclear Energy, Uranium, Bannerman discussion Bannerman Energy Executive Chairman and Shaw and Partners Head of Research Andrew Hines discuss all things nuclear energy, uranium supply, Bannerman Energy and the Etango Uranium Project. https://lnkd.in/gaDJh9Wa We discuss recent developments in the global nuclear industry and why demand for nuclear power is growing again. We discuss the deficit in uranium supply to meet current demand, let alone the expected growth from the technology industry and small modular reactors. We talk about the lack of new uranium projects ready to be developed post the industry’s decade long hibernation after Fukushima and how Bannerman has positioned itself to be ready to develop the Etango Uranium Project at the perfect time. 0:00      Introduction 0:30      World Nuclear Symposium feedback 2:30      Demand for Nuclear Energy is growing again – technology companies, data centres, Chinese growth, US power demands 10:20    Uranium Supply – Existing supply is insufficient to meet demand 14:29    Uranium Supply – Utilities have not yet returned to replacement level contracting so we have not yet discovered the true incentive price for uranium. Shaw and Partners forecasts that uranium will reach US$150/lb in 2025 18:36    Uranium Supply – there are risks to existing supply which is highly concentrated 21:32   Bannerman Energy – How Bannerman managed the industry downturn 25:00   Namibia – An excellent jurisdiction to build a uranium mine 28:32   Bannerman Energy – building a world class management team 31:35   Etango Uranium Project – Construction has commenced, maintaining optionality and flexibility 33:20   Etango Uranium Project – The contracting approach for a 40 year asset 36:40   Wrap-up and conclusion Brandon Munro Emma Culver Gavin Chamberlain Steve Herlihy Twapewa Kadhikwa Alison Terry Clive Jones Mike Leech Ian Burvill Werner Ewald Ronnie Beevor Andrew Hines Anthony Wilson Chris Dorney Russell Karlson Sam Christie Christopher Ziomek Mike Stanford Peter Kormendy Dorab Postmaster Earl Evans Gauthier Merlin Jake Burgess Thomas Tsiakis Elton Wang Lindsay Archibald Edward Walker Paul Johnston Mark Hardman Chloe Hayes Sinclair Clinton Philip Pepe Abraham Akra, PhD Please be advised that the advice we have prepared for you has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, before acting on any advice, you must consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your personal circumstances. If the advice we have provided relates to the purchase or possible purchase of a particular financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider it carefully.

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"The European gas market appears to be teetering towards a new bearish chapter. Like a spinning top losing momentum, the bull market is caught in its final erratic throes. After the speculative buying frenzy of the last seven months, a reconciliation with flaccid fundamentals was overdue. That moment is nearly upon us, and traders are positioning accordingly on Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF). This week’s subscriber-only EU LNG Chart Deck provides a forensic analysis of TTF fund movements and a macro view of the wider gas/LNG panorama." Read More: https://lnkd.in/eGNSbGcj Written by Seb Kennedy and published on EklipX Research #GAS #TTF #LNG #JKM #trading #commoditymarkets

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I read today's article in the The Guardian (see link in comments below) with interest. The dawning realisation and indeed policy endorsement to promoting the continued usage of #naturalgas in the #UK's power system, demonstrates a level of common sense from the incoming #Labour administration - though let's not pick bones about the fact that the previous administration's decision to extend usage of #CCGTs met with widespread criticism from across the chamber at the time.  The idea that greater penetration of renewables in the system requires greater #flexiblepower provided by natural gas #powergeneration, is clear - at least until and unless it is displaced by #nuclear, or indeed #longdurationstorage, which can recycle green #electrons. The jury's currently out on the latter from a commercialisation perspective, and new nuclear build is years ahead. So natural gas continues to be the #decarbonised transition fuel of choice. But here's the kicker, with #carboncapture #technology attached to gas generators, we can deliver #netzero flexible power into the #grid. And why only #sequester the #CO2? Why not create a further revenue opportunity by scrubbing or reusing the CO2 in products such as food grade #industrialgases or #carbonblack products, or indeed #methanol? In doing so, a real opportunity exists to invest without the dependence on #subsidy. At Victory Hill Capital Partners LLP, our thematic approach to investing in the #energytransition foresaw such an #evolution, hence our investment in a UK programme which provides #gasfired flexible power combined with carbon capture technology which scrubs the CO2 into #foodgrade CO2 to be sold into the industrial gases market where there is a structural short in the UK, creating a #sustainable value chain, with our partners, Landmark Power Holdings. Moving forward, we believe the picture of the #demandsidedynamics are likely to be further skewed by the emergence of generational #AI technology in #datacentres. With the amount of energy required for AI technology tasks being 10x more than the equivalent Google tasks, the demand for dependable energy is expected to spike to historically higher levels in the next 10 years in #Europe, the #US and beyond. And within this context, the conversation will likely be, is natural gas a #transitionfuel? Or will it be here to stay? In which case the question arises of: who understood ahead of time the benefits of carbon capture technology, and is there sufficient policy initiatives and #privatecapital to support this? Interested? #letstalk #sustainableinvesting #unsdgs #victoryhill #gseo Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Fiona Harvey #victoryhill Emily Revess #sustainableenergy Louis Taylor John Flint Emma Floyd Valerie Hamill Victoria Seabrook Rt Hon Rachel Reeves Peter Kyle Lord Philip Hunt

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This figure masks the tailwinds from energy price base effects, but shows that on a headline basis we’re mostly there in terms of getting inflation back under control. On a core basis we still have the last mile to go from the 3-4% range all the way down to target as wage growth and service price inflation remain stubbornly high across much of the world. I have, however, become less worried about the last mile, as I have started to think of sticky services inflation and wage growth more as a *relative price adjustment* than a sign of truly persistent inflation in the general price level. What do I mean by that? The pandemic and energy price shock caused a dislocation of two key relative prices which have only partly unwound; the relative prices of goods vs. services, and the relative prices of labour vs. output (real wages). Goods vs. services: During the pandemic, there was a strong shift in consumption away from services to goods, pushing up the price of the latter and interrupting a decades-long trend of service prices outpacing core goods prices. The plunge in the relative price of services has only partly unwound and probably has further to go before reaching a sustainable equilibrium now that consumption patterns are normalising. Labour vs. output: Real wages took a hit during the post-pandemic inflation surge due to nominal wage rigidities, particularly where economies suffered negative terms of trade shocks. Again, real wages have recovered somewhat, but remain below their pre-pandemic trends. As the energy price shock dissipates, and to the extent profit margins widened as a result of the inflation surprise, we will likely see real wages catch back up. Of course, the two adjustments are related since services tend to be more labour-intensive than goods, and therefore have higher wage pass-through. This complicates policymakers’ task. The relative price adjustment is necessary for the allocative efficiency in the economy, but it’s difficult to accommodate it without tolerating above-target inflation for a period of time (the other option is to force even further deflation in goods prices, which risks weighing unnecessarily on economic activity and undershooting inflation targets in the future). So far, these relative price adjustments have taken place without de-railing inflation expectations or major output losses. My gut feeling is that central banks can probably take their foot off the brake at this point. Core inflation will dissipate on its own once the relative price adjustment is complete. Figures from the BIS AER, which continues to shape my thinking on inflation and monetary policy: https://lnkd.in/ef6bGa7K

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Genuine question for fellow QT nerds / financial plumbing experts. The BoE MPC voted to keep the pace of Quantitative Tightening unchanged at £100bn for the next 12 months, c. 90% of which will come through a passive run-off of existing holdings, and c. 10% from active sales. Bank reserves are currently upwards of £700bn, well above the BoE’s own estimate of even the £490bn upper bound of the Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves (which should delineate between what central bankers have started calling “abundant” and “ample” reserves). In other words, by the Bank’s own reckoning, it should have lots of room to shrink its balance sheet before bank reserves start to become scarce. Fine. However, this is happening against the backdrop of exponentially growth in banks drawing on the Bank’s Short Term Repo (STR) facility – not something you would expect in an environment where every bank has “abundant” reserves. If you were sitting on the MPC, would this give you pause? Are there any risks associated with moving out of "abundant" territory too quickly, or are gilt-backed reserves just going to seamlessly get replaced with repo-backed reserves?

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Key Takeaways from Fitch Ratings' ABS sector rating revision to Neutral: - Default rates holding up really well especially driven by better-than-expected non-prime sector - There has only been a mild deterioration in delinquency rates especially in German Auto - Significant performance worsening seems unlikely - UK credit card sector default rates have been revised down along with European Auto - Expect softening in the labor market both in the UK and Germany (less so in France, Italy and Spain) but assume a broadly flat unemployment rate in Europe - Expect further interest rate cuts across the board - Main topics going into 2025: a) Residual value for used cars has been declining across Europe (UK down 15% from peak April 2023) but still above historical norms b) improving recovery rates are not expect to continue c) battery electric vehicles residual values have been declined more rapidly than conventional vehicles as the primary market is fueled by tax incentives but the consumer secondary market is not deep enough yet d) non-prime borrowers performance has seen limited decline thanks to AI and more sophisticated underwriting models driven by Open Banking and leading to better default rate predictability; many of those borrowers are being pushed out towards BNPL #finance #lending #consumerlending #abs #bnpl #europe #rating

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Thames Water: Debtwire is reporting that "Representatives of Thames Water’s Class A creditor group asked trading desks late last week to stop making markets in the prospective GBP 1.5bn rescue loan that the group is proposing to lend to the utility, according to two sources familiar with the matter". In my 20 years in European credit, I have never heard of situation when anyone asked the trading desks to stop making markets in a new issue. That said, I have also rarely if ever seen a bond trade when OR if issued. This is clearly a highly complex situation. However, I think it perfectly illustrates the information asymmetry between the creditor groups and the public markets. Furthermore, it creates a situation where information has to be very clearly siloed between internal groups. In the US, the SEC has already prosecuted CLO groups for trading while in possession of private information from their distressed team. Whether you are inside or outside the tent, it is clear that some investors have an information advantage in this complex situation, and therefore investors need to recognise when they are at a disadvantage. Story by David Orbay-Graves at Debtwire: Bids for the Class A group’s proposed rescue loan hit 109 Dealers included Barclays, BNP, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Representatives of Thames Water’s Class A creditor group asked trading desks late last week to stop making markets in the prospective GBP 1.5bn rescue loan that the group is proposing to lend to the utility, according to two sources familiar with the matter.   As reported, trading desks started making quotes for the as-yet-unissued super-senior loan – on a “when and if” basis – last week. The loan was indicated at 101/102 on Wednesday (30 October) but quotes rose rapidly, with the notes bid at 109 by Thursday.  One buysider said they had seen a quote early this morning (4 November) at 108/112.5, but nothing since. A second buysider said they had not seen any quotes today. Dealers quoting the facility included Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Seaport, as reported. The proposed loan from Class A creditors would carry an annual interest of 9.75%, be issued at 97 OID, and carry a 3.5% backstop fee and 1.25% consent fees. The loan would have a 2.5-year maturity and has a make-whole fee included in the provisions.  Raising the loan will require Thames Water to utilise a UK Restructuring Plan.  The Class A group issued a statement today urging Thames Water’s creditors to consider participating in the facility, which is open for participation to both Class A and Class B pro rata to their existing holdings and support the company’s restructuring.  The Class A group’s proposed GBP 1.5bn loan has been fully backstopped by members of a coordinating committee. Thames Water announced on 25 October that holders of roughly GBP 6.7bn had agreed to support the Class A proposal. (Continued in the comments)

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Last Wednesday at SuperReturn Middle East Namit Chugh and I had a freewheeling chat on the role Middle Eastern capital could play in emerging markets. Having lived and worked in the UAE for half a decade as a fund manager and pitched to several local LPs across two fundraising roadshows my key takeaway is that Middle Eastern LPs are conservative - they believe in capital preservation even when allocating to alternative assets class. Which is why ME allocations have typically found their way to the developed US and EU markets. One also notices that ME investments into new age businesses in India typically comprise large cheques (~USD100Mn) in late stage (Series D, E, F) "startups" ostensibly in the belief that later stage investments were safer bets. The ME is gradually turning the spotlight inwards to provide an impetus to its non-oil related fledgling private sector (eg KSA, Oman) and to emerging economies in the MENA region. But, I don't see the ME countries venturing into South Asia and SE Asia. Isn't this a missed opportunity given that India and some SE Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines etc are together going to drive a major proportion of global GDP growth (as per the World Bank)? Hopefully, ME capital will wizen up and increase its India exposure but not only with few large late-stage cheques (which are also necessary for the growth of the ecosystem) but with several, and frequent, small and medium sized investments, across funds and startups, across stages. This will enable them to get to know the Indian market better and create a form of reciprocal symbiosis where their capital will benefit Indian startups and they could get dual returns in the form of pecuniary returns as well as the ability to tap India's R&D and innovation for the ME markets.

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Do not debtonate? Banks are the main targets here. But private lending, which has blossomed recently and is expected to account for around a third of the leveraged loan market, is also coming under fire. The next wave of refinancing and the potential resurgence of deal activity will mean even closer scrutiny? LPs' appetite for this asset class appears to remain positive 

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What does Zonal Pricing achieve, with all its associated risks and costs for existing and potential investors, that far outweighs a sleeved PPA? Why must purchasers physically relocate to benefit from more affordable power in a small, single, integrated electricity market such as the UK? Other countries may have zonal pricing but to use that as the argument for says nothing at all - in fact it ignores all the key differences between countries in terms of land availability, regulations, operations, systems…. How will this benefit consumers in the South of England where costs are prohibitively high as alternative land use value is huge. This seems like a classic example of comparative advantage being turned on its head, due to inadequacy of grid infrastructure, which is being rectified (too slowly). What am I missing here?

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The Church of England Pensions Board, as a shareholder in Anglo American, welcomes the Anglo Board's decision to reject the extension of talks with BHP. We continue to view this proposed takeover as unfavourable to the long-term interests of our pension fund members. We believe a strongly backed Anglo is better for the mining sector in general and for the global transition. We also believe it is important Anglo remains a significant actor in South Africa as well as listed in London. However, there does remain a wider systemic issue for investors and asset owners to address and that is the mining sector as a whole needs a completely different level of recognition for the role it plays in the global economy, the relevance to our investment portfolios and the role it has to play in enabling the global transition. In turn we need to recognise that investors are not properly valuing this sector and in particular those companies developing the most socially responsible approaches. There are deep issues that continue to challenge mining and we need a more holistic response as responsible investors.

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Delighted to meet with HM Treasury last week to discuss the “windfall” tax on the UK North Sea energy industry, which we at Stifel Europe have published extensive analysis of over the last year. I presented our research on both the impacts the "windfall" tax has already had, and the potential future negative effects we forecast if “windfall” tax take is raised yet again in the budget on 30th October- to highlight just one, we forecast £20bn of tax revenues lost by 2035-2040E, just from corporation tax and "windfall" tax receipts alone. Our view remains that the UK North Sea energy industry is part of the UK’s energy transition, and that taxing it even further will kill investment and put at risk a significant number of jobs and the skills base required to drive the UK's energy transition forward. It will also damage economic growth and undermine the UK’s energy security. Emissions will also be higher as the UK will be forced to import more energy- the UK’s demand for oil and gas is not eliminated by closing down the UK North Sea.

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For a bit of a longer historical time series than most finance articles I see, here’s a short piece from BBC News about how the UK is closing its last coal power station. The UK is regarded as the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution (and coal power) - and is the first major economy to give up coal for electricity generation. https://lnkd.in/egBcG9_4

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Can the world meet the growing energy needs without a significant increase investment in nuclear? The recent increase in the valuation of SMR companies such as NuScale Power would suggest not, and big tech has identified the need even if the politicians are scared the opposition to nuclear. #global #investmentmanagement #energy #nuclear

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#Hargreaves_Lansdown Hargreaves Lansdown backed the £5.4 billion bid for the FTSE 100 fund manager today from a private equity consortium, a deal that will end its time as a listed company. The Bristol-based finance firm has been listed in London since 2007. It said today that the final offer valued its shares at 1140p in cash and would include a 30p per share dividend for the financial year which ended on 30 June. Compared to the Hargreaves Lansdown share price before the approach was first made in April, the price is at a premium of over 54%. The consortium is made up of CVC, Nordic Capital and ADIA. Hargreaves Lansdown is named after its founders – Peter Hargreaves and Stephen Lansdown – who set it up as an investment tip sheet. It now runs a state-of-the-art trading platform from which clients can run their own portfolios and pensions. https://lnkd.in/dKpizupy

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"Britain also suffers from a dearth of 'true risk capital and there’s not a lot of managers who are comfortable taking the risk that is required to manage that capital. In the City of London there’s a lot of capital but it tends to be focused on low risk, low reward asset classes like gilts.'" And most of the rest of Europe is even more risk averse when it comes to investing. Value created by European innovation, technology, and entrepreneurship routinely flows out of Europe. The hard reality is that Europe is simply an extension of US capital and financial markets. European countries should lean into it and finally structure their systems accordingly. “Private equity has been the biggest driver of returns for our portfolio. I don’t think there’s extra risk — what you do give up is liquidity. Private markets work well when you have pooled assets with a long-term time horizon.” - John Graham European investors should take note. 📝 https://lnkd.in/eaDYkjig

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Thrilled to share my latest article in Financial Times FT Adviser! In this piece, I explore why the value of renewable energy investment trusts is still being overlooked, despite their long-term growth potential and the crucial role they play in the green energy transition. Current share prices do not reflect the mounting evidence that these investment portfolios are undervalued as the investment case remains largely unchanged. As we shift towards a more sustainable future, these trusts offer unique opportunities for investors seeking both financial return and impact. Additionally, for many, renewable investment trusts represent one of the only access points to private assets. Victory Hill are the Investment Manager to VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc The Association of Investment Companies (AIC) #GSEO #investmentcompanies #investmenttrusts #renewableenergy #sustainable #investing #investments #energytransition #impact

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🚨 In the CI Daily - Is the UK Doomed to Fall Behind in the Global Energy Race—Can We Catch Up? 🚨 Personally, I’ve always cared deeply about how policy mistakes can cost us years of progress. The energy transition is too important to get wrong and the consequences could be devastating for the UK—skyrocketing energy bills, missed climate targets, and global irrelevance. I’m particularly interested in hearing from fellow members of The Worshipful Company of Fuellers and others who engage with policymakers. As energy demands rise and climate goals loom, the UK faces a massive challenge: Why can’t we build complex energy projects like other nations? 💥 Hinkley Point C is £16 billion over budget and still dragging its feet. Meanwhile, countries like the US and China are speeding ahead with different technologies. 🔹 The US is using modular construction for faster, cheaper reactors. 🔹 China’s Hualong reactors are rising with state support and fewer roadblocks. 🌍 So, what’s the future of UK energy? Rolls-Royce’s Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could revolutionize energy with scalable, efficient designs. 🚀 But can the UK really compete with these global energy giants? With the world’s second-largest offshore wind programme, should we bet on our private sector providing the renewables instead, or embrace a state-led model like GB Energy using sea-bed sourced from the Crown Estate? 🔑 Big Question: The UK’s regulatory roadblocks and lack of investment are crippling its energy future—what needs to change? Is it regulation, lack of investment, or something else entirely? 🛠️ Your Thoughts Matter: Share your ideas! Should the market lead the charge, or do we need government intervention to avoid falling further behind? If we don’t fix this now, could we be waiting decades for the right technologies to be adopted? 💬 Let’s spark the conversation that drives change. Tag someone working in energy or policy—let’s hear from the experts! 👇 #EnergyCrisis #Innovation #UKEnergy #SMRs #RenewableEnergy #HinkleyPoint #FutureOfEnergy

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