Sourabh Verma

Sbi Securities (Market Outlook for May Series - Roll-Over Snippets) Dear All, April Series clearly exhibited outperformance of Mid-caps & Small-Caps over Large-Caps, & we expect the individual stock specific action to continue going into the May Series, too. This was clearly visible as while Nifty traded almost with a flat bias, the market breadth within derivative segment was stronger with 69% single stock futures rising in April Series as compared to 46% advancing shares in March Series. Roll-Overs for the Nifty futures have been 65.12%, significantly lower compared to the previous month's 69.77% and the 3 month average of 71.40%. The most likely reason for the lower roll-overs/positioning could be the expectations of volatility ahead of the ongoing general elections. Also, the roll cost has declined to 0.31%, which is lower compared to the 3-Month average of 0.72%. Comparing with the previous trends during the past election years of 2009, 2014 & 2019, the Current Roll-over is lower then the rolls in April 2009 & 2019 where 74% & 81% roll-over of positions were witnessed. April 2019 Series, however, saw Nifty rolling over lesser positions to the tune of 59%. The long-short ratio based on FII index positions currently stands at 38.90% Tracking Seasonality, Over the past 17 years, May month has often exhibited a bullish trend for Nifty & Bank Nifty on majority of the occasions. Particularly striking is the trend observed during the previous 3 election years for May, where Nifty has recorded an impressive average return of 11% while Bank Nifty has witnessed a remarkable average return of 21.42% for the past 3 election years. Average volatility in May Series for Nifty in the past 17 years has been 8.7% while that for Bank Nifty would be 13%. Talking about Nifty levels, 22630-22650 zone will act as crucial resistance for the index. Any sustainable move above 22650 will lead to sharp upside rally upto 22880, followed by 23050 in the short term. While, on the downside, the 50-day SMA zone of 22200-22250 is likely to provide the cushion in case of any immediate decline. Any sustainable move below the level of 22200 will lead to profit booking in index upto 21940-21850 Sectors such as PSU Banks, Metal, CPSE, Chemicals, Consumer Durables and Auto are expected to outperform in the May Series while IT & Media could act as laggards. Click here https://bit.ly/3xXpqYY to access the SBI Securities Monthly Roll-Over Report & get the Actionable insights regarding potentially outperforming and underperforming Sectors & Stocks & thereby stay ahead of the game. Also, do read our interaction with moneycontrol.com : https://bit.ly/4bcrSJf SBI Securities Deepak Lalla Suresh Shukla #sbisecurities #sbibank #Nifty #Banknifty #rollover #Trendanalysis

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One of my connect’s question on DM was - “Do you think markets can have further steam on the election day?” I am sure this question will be there on everyone’s mind. So let’s try to understand what has happened historically in the markets when the unexpected happens. 1. When BJP was voted out in 2004. Markets tanked brutally. 2. When UPA came to power in 2009 markets were on circuit. 3. If you see 2014 when Modi formed the government then too markets rallied strong. 4. In 2019 everyone’s expectation was that BJP would get thrashed. At least that was the buzz created by the media. Markets were down during the early part of May, but soon put in a very strongly rally around the results and the rally continued in June too. 5. This time too anti incumbency and extremely strong media narrative that BJP may not get the majority has been built. The other narrative doing the rounds is BJP will form the government but their performance may be around the same benchmark of 303/354 (BJP/NDA) During the 2024 campaign Modi built a narrative of 400+. Now there were many naysayers and nobody believes these nos. However there are some mavericks like me who believe that 450 is also possible. But the 400+ bandwagon is not what many will expect. Even if the narrative shifts to 400+ over the next 10 days, it is one thing to say 400+ and actually get there. If the magical 400+ is achieved then there will be fire crackers in the markets (notwithstanding the fact that we are trading near ATH) given the following will see visibility in Modi 3.0. 400+ on the board in favour of the BJP/NDA essentially means A. a tight slap to the face of these anti national LGBTQXYZ vocalist western war mongering cabal. B. It means INC getting <40, career over for the G family and break up of INC. C. North South fragmentation narrative of DMK gets over. D. India UN permanent membership. E. Break up of Pakistan out of sheer fright 😜 and possibly end of the Ukraine War. F. Global rise of nationalism and Soros sucking his own #%^$. G. Akhand Bharat movement starts with taking back of POK, Bhutan merging with India, possibly even Nepal & Sri Lanka toying with the idea and India staking claim to Tibet (against China’s claims on Aksai and Arunachal. H. End of Khalistani narrative once and for all during 2024-2029. I. Implementation of UCC, NRC, population Control Bill, Judicial and Police reforms. J. India becoming 3rd in GDP tables with $ 1 trillion exports and INR:USD at 1:3 (wishful thinking) Please add anything that I have missed in your aspirations for a #ViksitBharat

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After raising risk weightage of unsecured loans, asking fintechs to temper down growth, RBI has now cautioned 4 banks on the poor quality of assets being sourced through co-lending channels. The slow down of personal loans will continue throughout this year. #digitallending #fintech #regulation https://lnkd.in/gci_7vxA

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New F&O Rules To Curb Speculative Activity Sebi tightens F&O rules to curb heightened activity in index options on expiry day and as a risk management measure. The new rules will be effective phase-wise starting November. Sebi's new F&O rules here https://lnkd.in/dKGjjBJM

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#PrivateEquityBasics Here is all about Waterfall Model in Private Equity: What is #waterfalldistributionmodel, different form, structure and tiers in Private Equity #Waterfalldistribution model: The two most common forms of distribution waterfalls are the #AmericanWaterfallModel and the #EuropeanWaterfallModel. In the American waterfall model, the GPs benefit more. The model gets applied to every deal instead of at the fund level. The risk gets spread over each investment and ensures that the #GPs receive a higher share of profits before LPs receive back their initial investment and preferred returns. Likewise, in the European waterfall, #LPs receive preference. The distribution proceeds are allocated at the aggregate fund level, and each payout reflects the overall performance rather than being tied to an individual investment. Managers never receive any profits until LPs recoup their initial investment and the amount owed in the preferred return, if applicable. It can take GPs a long time, up to several years, before they make good on their initial investment and start seeing profits. How Does a Private Equity Waterfall Work? A private equity investment structure aims to align the interests of all parties involved in a private equity fund. The #waterfalls (tiers) of investment are essentially the structure of the investors. In a distribution #waterfall, when the highest tier has been satisfied with the amount of profit allocated, the remaining profit can be allocated to the tiers below. Tiers in a Private Equity Distribution Waterfall Structure: #ReturnOfCapital (ROC) – Investors receive 100% of any distributions until they have received all their initial investments. Investors at this tier can’t receive gains resulting from any money spent. Essentially, they’re entitled to get back only what they put in at this tier and nothing more. #PreferredReturn (Hurdle Rate) – This tier is one of the primary features of a distribution waterfall model. When LPs make their initial investment, they expect they’ll receive a certain level of returns, typically set between 8% and 10% percent. Catch-up provision (#GPcatchup) – The catch-up bucket is highly beneficial for the general partner, which pushes any distributions back to the GP, making sure the GP is made whole. They get all or a significant share of the profit until they reach a certain profit percentage. #CarriedInterest – Carried interest represents the portion of any profits provided to the GP regardless of their initial investment (typically 20%). LPs also receive disbursements from any leftover profits (typically 80%). This tier represents the primary source of funding for a sponsor. In return, it’s the GP’s job to ensure that LPs receive their initial investment back, along with the agreed-upon preferred returns. If you want to discuss more on #PrivateEquity fund administration or if you have any questions please DM.

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When financial sector players manufacturing and selling the same category of products are subject to varying and uneven levels of regulations, it creates fertile grounds for risk. Private credit, which currently operates below the regulatory radar, presents a potential threat to financial stability. Even the IMF has warned about risks from private credit. My column in today's edition of Mint. #privatecredit #privateequity #credit #reservebankofindia #rbi

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The credibility question is widening. ‘Not very sure about GDP numbers,’ says Asian Paints (AP). The challenge Asian Paints faces is eroding price realization with the company having to increasingly rely on selling low-value paints, mainly in the distemper category. Markets believe that the biggest drag for the company is emerging competition from a new large entrant, Birla Opus. But that is a future threat. At the moment what is dampening APs sentiment is weak demand leading to significant down-trading by consumers. Hence, the credibility question over the GDP numbers.

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India ‘clearly has a problem’ finding new drivers for economic growth, JPMorgan’s Jahangir Aziz says If India wants to grow, it must prioritize Bottom of Pyramid. Employment and job creation to the poorest. Food Security, increasing production, better irrigation Job growth and development focused to Bottom of period can bring market development. #India #Growth #development #GDP #Employment https://lnkd.in/d87sibdK

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Prashant Jain on Banks: "Top down, banking should grow faster than India’s normal GDP growth. Capex is picking up and at some stage companies will come to banks to raise funds. Balance sheets of banks are extremely healthy and we have come out of a long NPA cycle. So, provision costs should remain extremely low. Plus, this sector has been underperforming; not all banks, but many heavyweights have underperformed for a fairly long period. Valuations have become quite reasonable. The discount of banks to the broader markets or other sectors is more. So, we feel this is one of the few spaces where there is still some upside. Also, it is a very large part of the benchmark index. These are some reasons why we are overweight on banks." #india #invresting #banks #prashantjain #valuations #upside The banking sector is one of the few spaces with some upside for market investors: Prashant Jain The CIO of 3P Investment Managers is overweight on banks and moderately underweight on IT companies. Here's the market maven's sectoral outlook and portfolio strategy for long-term market-beating returns The Banking Sector Is One Of The Few Spaces With Some Upside For Market Investors: Prashant Jain - Forbes India https://lnkd.in/djt6TCQN

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Dear All, While Nifty50 fell 450 points on Friday from higher levels and there are few bearish indications formed on charts, A general question that could arise in our mind is whether this is a time to go short or put the chips off the table ?? I don't think so atleast till the 50 DMA zone of 22280 is guarded on the downside. Moreover, since January 2024, Nifty has been trading into an upward sloping rising channel with support at 22250-22300 zone. (Rebound in S&P, Fall in Brent Crude prices, Cool off in Dollar Index are key positives). On the upside, 22700-22800 is proving to be a stiff resistance, and once this is crossed, Nifty would witness strong momentum upto 23100-23250, which is the upper end of the channel mentioned above. However, until 22800 is not crossed, Index could consolidate between 22280 and 22800. Below 22280, Index could witness a slide upto 22000-21860 levels. Of course, there are concerns mounting on account of rising volatility despite the expected consolidation. We at SBI Securities believe that the correct way to ride these volatile phases in an otherwise overall uptrend is to look for outperforming sectors against Index and similarly outperforming stocks within the sectors. (One can use Relative Strength and Ratio Charts + a check on Fundamentals too). We feel this is the best and safest way to ride the volatility safely apart from generating returns with lower stress. Even if the markets suddenly changes its texture, stocks with higher relative strength face lower dents and are the first ones to stage a recovery from lower levels. One more key 🔑 thing that traders should not forget in such markets is to trade with less leverage and maintain appropriate position sizing apart from keeping strict stops. (This will ensure safety of capital.) Keep booking regular profits and have a correct mix of largecaps and smallcaps. In our recent interaction with moneycontrol.com, we have decoded 1) How the key Indices - Nifty, Bank Nifty would be behaving in the coming week ? 2) Sectors in Focus 3) Our Top 2 Picks 4) Approach towards the markets with the rise in volatility, keeping the elections in mind. https://lnkd.in/drUvAAGf Regards, SBI Securities Ltd. SBI Securities Suresh Shukla Deepak Lalla #niftyview #Globalview #bankniftyview #optiondata #midcaps #Smallcaps #Indiavix #brentcrude Ps. Kindly share it with your friends, relatives and other connects as it might be helpful to someone navigating the current Market Volatility.

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🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳 Bain Capital plans to significantly increase its investments in India, aiming to double its current investment levels over the next three years to US$500M. Since it started operations in India in 2008, it has invested a little over $7 billion in India, of which around 70 per cent is part of its private equity portfolio and the remaining under its Special Situations Fund. This strategic move aligns with the growing opportunities in the Indian market, particularly in sectors like technology, healthcare, and consumer goods. Bain Capital's commitment reflects confidence in India's economic potential and the favorable business environment. This initiative is expected to enhance job creation and contribute to the overall economic growth of the country. https://lnkd.in/ggrDGUWn #indiainc #indianeconomy #fdi #capitalinvestments

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🚀 **Key Updates from SEBI’s Board Meeting held today on 30th September 2024** 🚀 SEBI has announced significant reforms aimed at enhancing market efficiency and investor protection. Here are the highlights: 1. **New Asset Class for High-Risk Investors**: A new investment product designed to bridge the gap between mutual funds and PMS, offering greater flexibility and higher risk exposure. Minimum investment: ₹10 lakh. 2. **T+0 Settlement**: The number of stocks eligible for same-day (T+0) settlement will expand, offering quicker trade finalization. Optional block deals can now be executed in a new window (8:45 - 9:00 AM) under the T+0 cycle. 3. **Faster Rights Issues**: The timeline for rights issues is being slashed from over 300 days to just 23 working days, improving capital-raising efficiency. 4. **Mutual Fund Lite**: Introduction of "Mutual Fund Lite," easing compliance for passively managed schemes, to make investing simpler and more accessible for retail investors. These reforms, alongside other regulatory changes, are set to streamline market operations and enhance investor confidence. 🌐📈 #SEBI #CapitalMarkets #InvestmentStrategies #RightsIssue #MutualFundLite #MarketReforms --- This update reflects SEBI's commitment to balancing innovation, accessibility, and investor protection https://lnkd.in/d8-Z-Kxs

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It took almost a decade for S&P to realize the directional strength of the #Indianeconomy and sheepishly raise the country’s #sovereignrating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ - while obdurately retaining the rating at ‘BBB-‘. Lastly, the agency updated the rating outlook for #India from ‘negative’ to ‘stable’ in 2014. After denying India’s persistent pitches for #ratingupgrades in the last many years (https://shorturl.at/DDPDA), it remains unclear as to whether it is the change of heart or swallowing of pride on the part of Big 3 of the global #creditrating. Curiously, while affirming India's rating at Baa3 with a stable outlook in Aug 2023 Moody’s bared its bizarre thinking behind the rating decision. While reckoning India’s fiscal consolidation & debt stabilization aiding high #GDP growth, rising income levels and overall #economicresilience, Moody’s did not hesitate to sermonize on “a curtailment of civil society and #politicaldissent, compounded by rising domestic #politicalrisk”. And it is the degree of opacity and obfuscation by indiscriminately including highly subjective components, which successive CEAs and Finance Ministers have been voicing to reform the rating process. The issue was once again enunciated by the former CEA at the United Nations (https://shorturl.at/Oudr5) recently. Re-examining Narratives – A Collection of Essays (https://shorturl.at/oFaUL) published by the Office of the CEA in Dec 2023 painstakingly highlights the issue in the chapter focused on Credit Rating Methodologies. “.. Institutional Quality, proxied mostly by the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs), emerges as the foremost determinant of a developing economy’s credit rating, which presents a problem since these metrics tend to be non-transparent, perception based, and derived from a small group of experts, and cannot represent the “willingness to pay” of the sovereign. Their effect on the ratings is non-trivial since it implies that to earn a credit rating upgrade, developing economies must demonstrate progress along arbitrary indicators while simultaneously contending with the discriminations the ratings tend to carry.” A succinct analysis of the strength of the Indian Economy is presented in the Economic Review section of the Annual Report 2023-24 of the RBI. It is more than enough to satisfy all stripes of economists, academicians and the proletariat– whether in the guise of supporters, or detractors. It is uncertain if GDP estimates for 2023-24 - a growth rate of 8.2% vis-a-vis 7.0% in FY 2022-23 – will be palatable for hardcore doomsayers. Machinations and designs of scheming powers aside, no power can deny 1.4 billion enlightened minds on their journey to redeem their collective #sovereignpledge - to unravel India’s innate potential, not in parts or fragmented measures, but wholly and substantively and restore India’s rightful position. Rating outlook or any frivolity can continue with a tiresome reprise of their master’s voice.

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𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗴𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗯𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗴 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 Trust and transparency are the bedrock of economic stability in today's globalised financial markets. However, these very principles are under siege by entities like Hindenburg Research, which has turned short-selling into a weapon of financial terrorism. Under the guise of "research," Hindenburg selectively targets companies, particularly in emerging markets like India, causing disproportionate damage to their reputations and valuations. Hindenburg’s modus operandi involves publishing sensationalist reports that accuse companies of financial misconduct without substantive evidence. These reports are strategically released to maximize market impact, leading to sudden and severe stock price crashes. The real objective is not to uncover the truth but to profit from the ensuing chaos. Hindenburg often targets high-growth companies in emerging markets, which are more vulnerable to reputational damage. By focusing on firms like the Adani Group, Hindenburg exploits the perceived opacity of these markets. The impact is devastating not just for the companies but for millions of small investors and employees who suffer as a result. Hindenburg’s actions can be viewed as an attack on the economic sovereignty of nations. By destabilizing key enterprises in strategic sectors, they undermine investor confidence and disrupt national economic progress. This is particularly concerning when these attacks are directed at countries like India, which is on the path to becoming a global economic powerhouse. Despite the destructive outcomes of their reports, Hindenburg operates with minimal accountability. The lack of regulatory oversight in short-selling practices allows firms like Hindenburg to engage in what can only be described as financial terrorism—destroying value for their gain without facing consequences. The global media, often complicit in amplifying Hindenburg’s narratives, plays a significant role in legitimizing these attacks. Sensational headlines and unverified claims make for compelling news, but they also contribute to the financial instability of the companies targeted. Regulators, investors, and the global community must recognize the true nature of #HindenburgResearch's actions. What they present as investigative reporting is, in reality, a calculated form of financial warfare that prioritizes profit over truth and stability. We must call for stricter regulations and greater accountability to protect markets from such predatory practices. https://lnkd.in/gt3jVZ-c #Marketing #Digitalmarketing #Technology #Futurism

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📈 Thrilled to announce that my analysis on FY25 market trends has been quoted in The Economic Times ! In the article, I discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead for sectors like private banks and FMCG. For those looking to navigate the complexities of the market, this piece provides essential insights. Check it out! #MarketForecasts #EconomicTrends #StrategicInvesting Follow Quantace Research Shubhada Patil

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IIMA is collaborating with FPSB India to host the 'Asset Pricing & Factor Investing Workshop for CFP Professionals' on November 28, 2024. This workshop is designed to provide finance professionals, particularly CFP professionals and aspiring candidates, with an in-depth understanding of key concepts and advanced strategies shaping today’s investment landscape. Joshy Jacob | Krishan Mishra, CMgr FCMI

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