Miya PAOLUCCI

21st November, Daily Energy Market Update - Today’s energy market developments reflect a dynamic interplay of weather-driven demand, robust LNG arrivals, and evolving supply factors across Europe. Below-average temperatures persist in the UK, although forecasts suggest a temporary warming by the weekend. Gas and power prices are responding accordingly, with both spot and curve prices showing upward momentum. UK natural gas prices have risen, with NBP day-ahead trading at 117.10 p/therm, up by 2.35 p/therm from the previous session. A colder-than-average weather spell has elevated demand, pushing system demand to 322.48 mcm/day. While UK LNG terminals maintain healthy send-out levels, nine LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive over the next two weeks, supporting supply stability. Notably, Norwegian flows remain steady at 340 mcm/day despite maintenance curtailments at Vesterled and Kårstø, which are temporarily reducing flows by 25 mcm/day combined. European gas storage withdrawals have increased to meet the rising heating demand, with storage levels at 89%. This contrasts with the UK system's morning oversupply of 7 mcm/day, which could temper further price hikes if conditions stabilise. UK power prices have also climbed, with day-ahead baseload reaching £102.90/MWh, up £4.72/MWh from the prior day. Cooler weather and lower wind generation have driven demand higher, while nuclear output from France supports broader European supply. EDF’s recent reactor restarts have lifted French nuclear generation to its highest levels since January, offering a buffer to cold-weather-driven demand spikes. Wind power output in the UK is forecasted to exceed seasonal norms in the coming days before dropping below expectations next week. This variability emphasises the need for strategic balancing, especially given steady interconnector flows and high reliance on gas-fired generation. Brent crude traded slightly lower at $72.81/bbl, reflecting cautious sentiment amidst geopolitical concerns. Carbon markets remain resilient, with EUA Dec 24 certificates up at €68.38/tonne. Meanwhile, the GBP/EUR exchange rate edged higher to 1.1993, potentially impacting energy imports. The interplay of colder weather, high system demand, and upcoming LNG arrivals will shape short-term market movements. While gas supply appears robust, ongoing European storage withdrawals and price volatility underline the importance of monitoring geopolitical and weather developments closely. Stay informed as we navigate a season of heightened market activity and complexity.

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Negative power prices have been a huge topic in European power markets this year, as the number of negative price hours has surged in many markets. Our French power markets team has pulled together a public report on this available on link below. Key drivers of negative prices are: - Strong growth in renewables deployment - High renewables generation in some months (this was a strong driver in I Paris in Spring) - Inflexibilities in the system eg nuclear in France, coal in Poland and Germany - Low power demand, partly linked to weak industrial demand - France in particular ‘imports’ negative prices from neighbouring markets in periods of oversupply.

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November 15th, 2024, brings significant insights into the UK energy market, marked by dynamic movements across gas, power, and related sectors. Natural gas prices surged yesterday, with the NBP day-ahead closing at 116.75 p/therm, a notable uptick driven by developments in Europe. This rise followed news that Austria’s OMV secured a victory in its arbitration case against Gazprom Export, claiming EUR 230 million in compensation. The market reacted with caution, considering the potential repercussions for Russian gas flows to Austria. Adding to the bullish sentiment, forecasts for colder-than-average temperatures and stable Norwegian supply at 341 mcm/day lent support. UK power prices mirrored this upward trajectory, closing the day at £101.00/MWh for day-ahead baseload. The current energy landscape reflects the strain of recent ‘dunkelflaute’ conditions, periods with minimal solar and increased cloud cover, which have increased reliance on gas-fired generation. However, brighter prospects are on the horizon as wind speeds are forecasted to surpass seasonal norms, potentially alleviating gas burn and providing some price relief. In the realm of oil, Brent crude edged up slightly to settle at $72.56 per barrel, marking steady performance amid a cautious market mood. Meanwhile, the carbon market saw EUA December 2024 contracts climb to €68.27/tonne, reflecting ongoing demand for allowances. The currency front also witnessed minor shifts, with GBP/EUR strengthening to 1.2025. This adjustment aligns with broader market volatility, influenced by energy dynamics and economic expectations. Looking ahead, the UK system began the day long by 7 mcm/day, underpinned by average temperatures and moderated LDZ demand. Importantly, four LNG cargoes are anticipated to arrive in the coming weeks, which should bolster supply and provide some market stability. Nuclear capacity remains a focal point, currently at 4.7 GW, though this is expected to decline by November 25th due to scheduled maintenance affecting two reactors. Such developments could tighten electricity supply, highlighting the balance between renewable contributions and reliance on traditional energy sources. The next few days will be critical in observing how the market responds to evolving temperature forecasts, LNG inflows, and shifting power generation patterns. Stakeholders will keep a close eye on whether wind generation meets expectations, easing the pressure on gas and supporting a more balanced power mix. As we approach winter, market participants must remain vigilant, navigating the complexities of energy supply, demand, and geopolitical influences.

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Aug24 #Business #Energy Market Report - Contrary to the movements observed in the preceding month, and across most of 2024, #power and #gas contracts with shorter durations recorded losses month-to-month. Despite the price losses, it is important to acknowledge that prices remain sensitive to change, especially as GB is more exposed to the global market for its procurement of gas.   This was particularly apparent during July when Hurricane Beryl exacerbated supply fears for the West following an outage at the Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility in the US. Similarly, reduced gas supply from the Norwegian and UK Continental Shelf across various periods of the month further solidified concerns surrounding supply.   Day-ahead gas registered a 9.0% loss month-on-month to average 74.49p/th due to demand reductions as the higher temperatures limit total heating demand. Similarly, front-month contracts registered price drops, with August 24 seeing a 9.0% loss to 75.13p/th, and September 24 dropping 7.3% to 79.71p/th.   Similar to the front-month contracts, most seasonal gas contracts out to Winter 26 showed decreases, but we note outliers in the summer 26 and Winter 26 contracts which saw a gains of 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively.    This led to an overall decrease of 0.1% across seasonal gas contracts, with an element of risk remaining across the medium-term as the present gas supply environment remains relatively uncertain despite elevated levels of EU gas in storage.   Elsewhere, demand profiles in Europe and South-East Asia across the winter period could play a key role in shaping future price movements for gas, particularly if we see competition between the two markets rise for the procurement of LNG. Currently, LNG demand from Europe remains subdued due to high gas storage stocks, currently at 85% at the time of writing, leading to the overall losses registered across gas contracts.   Following the bearish pricing sentiment experienced across its day-ahead gas counterpart, day-ahead power prices fell 7.4% to average £70.14/MWh in July, falling to the lowest level seen since April 2020 at £17.26/MWh on 3 July following high wind generation and low system demand on the day.   However, stronger losses were limited by a month-on-month reduction in wind generation levels, acting to increase the reliance on more expensive forms of power generation. Moreover, continued extensions to French nuclear power generation acted to decrease interconnector flows from the country, in tandem with the maintenance across the GB nuclear fleet throughout the month. Gavin Towers Richard Dickson Freddie Cooke

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Another powerful contribution of Alpiq to the security of supply and a cleaner world with more renewable energy. Flexible Battery Energy Storage Systems #BESS are a key element in the energy transformation and balancing the grid as a powerful sparring partner of intermittent renewable energy from wind and solar production.

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The French president touts it, the French Delegate Minister for Energy praises it: the decarbonized nature of the French electricity mix is an unparalleled asset in attracting foreign investment, particularly in industry. https://lnkd.in/e2ZUqpjS #NuclearEnergy #LowCarbonElectricity #NetZero #CleanEnergy

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Chariot, Vivo Energy to commercialize Loukos gas field onshore Morocco: The aim of the agreement is to set out the next steps for implementing a gas to industry business through, on one side, commercialization of domestic gas and, on the other, the creation of a midstream compressed natural gas (“CNG”) partnership to supply Morocco’s growing…

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Today October 11th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with a strong position, reflecting the ongoing shifts in both gas and power sectors. NBP day-ahead gas prices were up to 98.50p/therm, continuing the upward momentum seen from yesterday as colder-than-expected temperatures swept across Europe, leading to increased demand. The UK system opened long at 11mcm/day this morning due to revised down demand forecasts and higher flows from Norway through Langeled. Norwegian supply remains robust despite unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks, which are expected to resolve by early next week. LNG send-out remained steady at 12mcm/day, primarily from the South Hook terminal, with two LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. European storage levels are high, at 94.74%. UK day-ahead power prices surged to £87.67/MWh, driven by the rising gas prices and colder weather. Forward power contracts also saw gains, with November 2024 base contracts trading at £86.50/MWh, reflecting the tight supply outlook as temperatures are expected to remain below normal until early next week. EDF’s announcement that their output target for next year remains unchanged at 335-365TWh provides some stability to the market, although nuclear outages in the UK and Europe remain a concern. Notably, Sizewell B begins planned maintenance today, reducing its capacity by 490MW for the next 47 days. Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.40/bbl, fueled by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. In parallel, carbon prices climbed to €65.00/tonne for EUA Dec 2024, and UK ETS prices increased to £38.07/tonne. The rise in carbon prices adds further pressure on power markets, particularly as coal prices also saw a significant jump, with ARA CIF coal for Cal 2025 reaching $126.15/tonne. The currency markets saw minor fluctuations, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1949 and GBP/USD at 1.3058, as the energy sector keeps an eye on global economic indicators that could affect import costs and inflation. As we head into mid-October, the outlook remains bullish with colder temperatures expected to continue driving demand. Two more LNG cargoes are expected by early November, providing some relief, but supply risks persist. We could see continued price volatility as the market navigates these challenges.

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Today, November 13th, 2024, we take a detailed look at the UK energy market, where significant movements are shaping the landscape. Starting with natural gas, the NBP day-ahead price has risen to 111.60 p/therm, marking an increase of 1.10 p compared to the previous day’s settlement of 110.50 p/therm. This uptick is underpinned by forecasts of colder weather that have triggered higher demand and more substantial storage withdrawals. Notably, current data shows the UK system opening short by 12 mcm/day. Norwegian flows remain a vital part of the supply picture, with sustained high levels at 343.3 mcm/day, up 5% from the previous session. Meanwhile, a minor planned outage at Troll, set to reduce flows by 5 mcm/day on November 14-15, poses a marginal impact. The market’s forward curve has displayed mixed pricing, reflecting both the anticipation of colder spells and concerns about LNG supply. Competition from Asian buyers, with their typically stronger seasonal demand, is expected to influence UK and European LNG dynamics. Currently, three LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive in the UK from the U.S., providing a temporary cushion against supply concerns. Storage remains well-utilised, at around 93%, ensuring short-term resilience. However, market participants are mindful of risks associated with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the absence of Russian gas flows, particularly as storage replenishment strategies look ahead to 2025. UK power prices reflect this nuanced backdrop, with day-ahead baseload prices at £113.00/MWh, a modest decrease of £0.08 from the prior session’s £113.08/MWh. Peak power prices are similarly subdued, standing at £131.01/MWh. Contributing to this stability are stronger wind forecasts, which have helped moderate reliance on fossil fuels for immediate power generation. Nonetheless, looming changes in nuclear capacity may stir volatility; the UK’s current 4.7 GW of nuclear generation is set to halve by November 25 as two reactors undergo maintenance. This reduction could exert upward pressure on prices as colder weather coincides with diminished nuclear output. Looking ahead, weather projections suggest a significant cold snap from November 18th, which could drive higher demand and introduce new dynamics into pricing. Additionally, by the end of November, Norway’s Dvalin field is slated for a week-long outage impacting 9 mcm/day. This, coupled with upcoming seasonal shifts, sets the stage for potential price volatility as the market braces for peak winter demand. To add context, while the UK continues to manage strong interconnector flows and diversified LNG sourcing, strategic initiatives are underway. Ofgem’s recent approval for five new subsea power cables hints at a future where the UK could position itself as a net electricity exporter by 2030, enhancing long-term supply security and market influence.

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On October 18th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with tighter gas supplies and fluctuating power prices, reflecting a complex mix of operational challenges and evolving demand forecasts. The system started the day 7 mcm undersupplied, with Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline reduced by 4 mcm due to ongoing maintenance. Two offshore projects in the UK Continental Shelf are also impacting supply, though both are expected to conclude today. However, the Oseberg field’s outage, cutting 27 mcm/day, has been extended until tomorrow, and Gullfaks will remain offline until November 1st. Gas prices are moving with these constraints. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly up from the previous session. Curve contracts were mixed, reflecting uncertainty around maintenance schedules and geopolitical tensions. Despite these disruptions, the UK is forecasted to receive one LNG cargo by month-end, while Belgium and France are set to take more significant volumes. In power markets, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price dipped to £86.58/MWh, down by £3.02 from the previous day. Peak power settled at £90.26/MWh, a noticeable drop from £96.70/MWh. Renewables are expected to support the grid with above-average wind speeds through October 26th, though forecasts suggest output may fall short of demand by around 2000 MWh/h towards the end of that period. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal norms for the next week, providing some relief to heating demand before colder conditions return. Oil prices remain steady, with Brent at $74.45/bbl, while carbon permits hover around €62.98/tonne for EUA Dec-24 contracts. Overall, the market remains on edge, with winter risks looming and the geopolitical environment adding further complexity. Traders will closely monitor the completion of maintenance schedules and incoming LNG deliveries, both of which are critical to stabilising the market in the coming days.

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A nice article about increase in share of clean energy in Europes's power mix and the role of #hvdc and related #powercable demand.

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Today Port of Antwerp-Bruges signed the Oslo Declaration, together with representatives from Air Liquide, Carmeuse, Fluxys, ENGIE, Lhoist, Equinor, INEOS, North Sea Port, TotalEnergies, Heidelberg Materials, ArcelorMittal, Holcim, ExxonMobil, BASF, Flemish Minister-president Jan Jambon, Walloon Minister Philippe Henry and Federal Ministers Tinne Van der Straeten & Paul Van Tigchelt. This declaration represents a unified commitment by key stakeholders to advance Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technologies, essential tools in our transition to a more sustainable future. CCUS is crucial for the decarbonization of the Belgian economy, providing secure low-carbon energy sources like 'blue' hydrogen and enabling low-carbon power supply even during periods of low renewable energy generation. Significant policy steps have already been taken in Belgium, with regulatory frameworks for CO2 transport and bilateral agreements for cross-border CO2 storage under the London Protocol. However, to overcome investment barriers and timing uncertainties in infrastructure development, all stakeholders must cooperate and act swiftly. The Oslo Declaration outlines clear strategies to address the technical and financial challenges associated with CCUS. It is not just a statement of intent, but a robust action plan requiring 5 key actions: 📌 An Intra-Belgian Industrial Deal: Comprehensive plans from the next federal and regional governments to improve competitiveness & legal certainty and reduce legislative complexity 📌 A New Spirit of Law-Making: Regulatory frameworks that allow industry to choose their decarbonization pathways. 📌 De-Risking Mechanisms: Support mechanisms to help early movers in the CCUS value chain. 📌 Role of Molecules in Energy Systems: Ensure flexible, low-carbon energy availability to complement renewable energy. 📌 North Sea Cooperation: Structural coordination and cooperation among countries around the North Sea is crucial to untap the full potential of CCUS. At Port of Antwerp-Bruges, we are proud to be at the forefront of pioneering projects like Antwerp@C and NextGen District. These initiatives embody our commitment to driving forward CCUS technologies and circular economy practices. We are actively seeking partnerships with CCU players who can join us in transforming captured carbon into valuable products, closing the carbon loop, and contributing to a circular economy. To all signatories: let's harness our collective expertise and resources to turn the vision of the Oslo Declaration into a reality! 💚🌱 #OsloDeclaration #CCUS #Sustainability #ClimateAction #Collaboration

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FRANCE AWARDS FIRST COMMERCIAL FLOATING WIND FARM PROJECT A consortium between Elicio and BayWa r.e. Global has won a tender to build France's first large-scale commercial floating offshore wind farm. The 230-270 MW Pennavel project off the coast of Lorient, Brittany is expected to generate around 30% of the region's current renewable electricity supply, and will power over 450,000 homes annually once operational. Pennavel will be France’s first large-scale commercial floating offshore wind project and is claimed to be the first commercial floating wind farm to be awarded a long-term Contract for Difference (CfD). The project secured a grid connection from French transmission operator RTE. The floating wind farm aims to support the French government’s ambitious goal to commission around 50 offshore wind farms by 2050 and realise 45 GW of power. ⚡ Follow MPS (Modern Power Systems) for all the latest news daily from the global power generation industry ⚡ #MPS #power #energy #powergeneration #windenergy #renewableenergy

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🌍💡 Correntics and BKW AG, the operator of Switzerland’s largest power distribution system, team up to ensure reliable energy supply.   ▪ A new long-term partnership: Enabling BKW to understand the different impacts on their risk landscape across different climate scenarios ▪ Increases resilience: Ensuring a reliable, secure electricity supply for BKW is critical to its business ▪ Flexibility: BKW was looking for a partner who is flexible to adjust to new business needs or regulatory requirements   Insights gained from the partnership show both short and long-term risks and challenges – for 2030 and future scenarios until 2050. It enables BKW to understand and reduce the potential financial impacts on their business and across their global value chain.   🌐Read the whole blog on the partnership between Correntics and BKW: https://lnkd.in/dvDJUPuZ    #EnergyResilience #ClimateRisk #Sustainability #EnergySupply #ClimateAdaptation #RiskManagement #RenewableEnergy BKW AG Elena Knežević Microsoft for Startups

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We are excited to share another milestone from our portfolio company Correntics, which has formed a long-term partnership with BKW AG, Switzerland’s largest power distribution system operator. Building on their success in risk analytics and climate resilience, Correntics will help BKW better understand the impacts of various climate scenarios on their risk landscape. This partnership is crucial for ensuring the security and reliability of electricity supply, which is fundamental to BKW’s operations. By using Correntics' advanced risk analytics, BKW can now anticipate both short- and long-term challenges, identifying risks for 2030 and beyond to 2050. This enables them to mitigate financial risks across their entire value chain, while also adapting to evolving regulatory demands and business needs. Congratulations to the Correntics team for this impactful partnership. We look forward to seeing how their solutions continue to drive positive change in the energy sector. Michael Stucky, Mike Baur, Craig Cooper, Oliver Walzer #SerpentineVentures #VentureCapital #Correntics

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Today, the UK energy market showed mixed activity amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Front-month UK Power rose by 2.27%, closing at £81.46, while front-month NBP Gas climbed 1.28% to 95.40p. Carbon markets were stable, with Dec24 EUA's flat at €71.87, and UKA's up 4.61% at £40.60. Brent crude also saw gains, finishing at $81.15, up 1.74%. Stay informed and prepare for potential market shifts as geopolitical factors continue to influence energy prices. #EnergyMarket #UKPower #NaturalGas #CarbonTrading #BrentCrude

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Interoperability between energy devices is critical in the energy transition in all countries. Energy Management Systems such as N'Gage by Energisme manage to link a vast number of diverse objects for larger clients. The complexity and costs can be absorbed for this type of client where the gains associated are important. It will be critical for smaller, and particularly residential clients, to have access to similar levels of integration. This will need to be instigated at a device level "Project Mercury" launched by Octopus Energy is a welcome step in this direction.

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Against the backdrop of rising energy costs and a darkening energy security outlook, industry’s and businesses’ support for the energy transition is plummeting. Investments into reliable and flexible generation capacity need to be secured urgently. But untimely discussions about re-arranging power markets contribute to investment uncertainty. What is true for the south of Germany today, could tomorrow be seen across other economically vibrant regions in the EU. But Marina Schmid also brought some good news to her pitch at yesterday's Forum für Zukunftsenergien e. V. : System Operator, TransnetBW GmbH’s proposed Redispatch Payment Guarantee demonstrably strengthens investment incentives and at the same time reduces costs and CO2 emissions: https://lnkd.in/eS3AzDAF What is more Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action yesterday finally released its proposed Power Plant Strategy for public consultation: https://lnkd.in/eDC-a2Dt #ERAA, #BiddingZoneReview #Kraftwerksstrategie #IHK

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News to share from France 🇫🇷 in the Renewable Natural Gas #RNGindustry. Veolia, Waga Energy, and #ENGIE have formed a powerful partnership to push the boundaries of sustainable energy production. Since May 1st, Waga Energy has been selling RNG produced at Veolia’s Val Pôle in Claye-Souilly to ENGIE under a #Biomethane Purchase Agreement (BPA), without government subsidies 👏🏼 This 13-year contract is the longest BPA ever signed in France, marking a significant milestone in the RNG market. Veolia supplies biogas from the Claye-Souilly landfill, one of France’s largest RNG production units with an annual capacity of 120 GWh, equivalent to the energy consumption of around 20,000 households. Waga Energy converts this biogas into high-value RNG using its cutting-edge technology. The RNG is marketed by ENGIE at a higher value than the subsidized price, highlighting the growing economic viability of renewable energy sources. This agreement also enabled Waga Energy to secure long-term financing from CIC and Arkéa Banque Entreprises et Institutionnels for the RNG production unit. Miya PAOLUCCI of ENGIE stated, “The signing of this new BPA contributes to ENGIE’s goal to supply 30 TWh of RNG per year to our customers by 2030.” This collaboration not only supports ENGIE’s ambitious goals but also accelerates the transition towards a sustainable energy future. Estelle Brachlianoff, CEO of Veolia, emphasized, “Veolia is a key player in the production of bioenergy, already producing 1.6 terawatt-hours of biogas from waste anaerobic digestion in France alone.” This partnership is a testament to the power of collaboration in driving innovation and sustainability in the energy sector. As the world shifts towards greener energy solutions, such initiatives are crucial for reducing our carbon footprint and fostering economic growth 🔝 #RenewableEnergy #RNG #Sustainability #CleanEnergy #GreenInnovation #Veolia #WagaEnergy #ENGIE #Bioenergy #ClimateAction #Irbisio #Cleantech

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