Martin Young

UK Energy Market Update – 19th August 2024 Gas Market: The UK gas market has opened today with the system 7 mcm/day short, driven by lower nominations from the Langeled pipeline, while UKCS production remains stable. Strong exports to the continent continue, incentivised by the NBP Day-Ahead discount to TTF. The NBP Day-Ahead price is up slightly, trading at 79.50 p/therm. On the curve, winter contracts remain firm, with continued focus on storage injections ahead of the winter season. Pan-European storage levels are strong, with a collective fill rate of 89.40%. Power Market: UK power prices are seeing mixed movements. The UK Day-Ahead Baseload is priced at £64.24/MWh, reflecting a slight firmness. However, renewable generation, particularly from wind, is expected to limit the need for gas-fired power this week, especially on Thursday, with forecasts showing up to 15,000 MWh/h of wind capacity. On the supply side, nuclear availability is impacted by planned outages at key sites, including Heysham and Torness, adding to the overall market tension. Oil & Coal: Brent crude is relatively stable, trading at $79.68/bbl, while ARA coal for Cal Y+1 remains elevated at $130.11/tonne, reflecting continued demand and supply-side constraints. Currency: The GBP/EUR exchange rate is currently at 1.1747, maintaining stability in the broader energy market context. Outlook: As we approach the end of August, the UK energy market remains focused on storage levels and the geopolitical risks that could impact supply. With cooling forecasts and robust wind generation expected, we might see some easing in power prices, but the gas market continues to be underpinned by storage and export dynamics.

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Today, the UK energy market showed mixed activity amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Front-month UK Power rose by 2.27%, closing at £81.46, while front-month NBP Gas climbed 1.28% to 95.40p. Carbon markets were stable, with Dec24 EUA's flat at €71.87, and UKA's up 4.61% at £40.60. Brent crude also saw gains, finishing at $81.15, up 1.74%. Stay informed and prepare for potential market shifts as geopolitical factors continue to influence energy prices. #EnergyMarket #UKPower #NaturalGas #CarbonTrading #BrentCrude

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21st November, Daily Energy Market Update - Today’s energy market developments reflect a dynamic interplay of weather-driven demand, robust LNG arrivals, and evolving supply factors across Europe. Below-average temperatures persist in the UK, although forecasts suggest a temporary warming by the weekend. Gas and power prices are responding accordingly, with both spot and curve prices showing upward momentum. UK natural gas prices have risen, with NBP day-ahead trading at 117.10 p/therm, up by 2.35 p/therm from the previous session. A colder-than-average weather spell has elevated demand, pushing system demand to 322.48 mcm/day. While UK LNG terminals maintain healthy send-out levels, nine LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive over the next two weeks, supporting supply stability. Notably, Norwegian flows remain steady at 340 mcm/day despite maintenance curtailments at Vesterled and Kårstø, which are temporarily reducing flows by 25 mcm/day combined. European gas storage withdrawals have increased to meet the rising heating demand, with storage levels at 89%. This contrasts with the UK system's morning oversupply of 7 mcm/day, which could temper further price hikes if conditions stabilise. UK power prices have also climbed, with day-ahead baseload reaching £102.90/MWh, up £4.72/MWh from the prior day. Cooler weather and lower wind generation have driven demand higher, while nuclear output from France supports broader European supply. EDF’s recent reactor restarts have lifted French nuclear generation to its highest levels since January, offering a buffer to cold-weather-driven demand spikes. Wind power output in the UK is forecasted to exceed seasonal norms in the coming days before dropping below expectations next week. This variability emphasises the need for strategic balancing, especially given steady interconnector flows and high reliance on gas-fired generation. Brent crude traded slightly lower at $72.81/bbl, reflecting cautious sentiment amidst geopolitical concerns. Carbon markets remain resilient, with EUA Dec 24 certificates up at €68.38/tonne. Meanwhile, the GBP/EUR exchange rate edged higher to 1.1993, potentially impacting energy imports. The interplay of colder weather, high system demand, and upcoming LNG arrivals will shape short-term market movements. While gas supply appears robust, ongoing European storage withdrawals and price volatility underline the importance of monitoring geopolitical and weather developments closely. Stay informed as we navigate a season of heightened market activity and complexity.

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A very interesting piece on #GBEnergy's shortcomings by Mathew Lawrence of Common Ground, published by New Statesman Spotlight 👇 Key recommendations: - GB Energy should be given sufficient borrowing power for large-scale investment - The company requires greater capitalisation than the current £8.3bn - There should be a customer-facing retail supply arm https://lnkd.in/ej9NHfUc 💡 CEP responded to the GB Energy announcements here: https://lnkd.in/eR34yesD 💡 ...and we've discussed what Great British Energy can't do here: https://lnkd.in/ee4v3tEm

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6th December 2024, Daily UK #Energy Market Overview - This morning, the UK energy market faces a challenging landscape with the system opening 9 mcm/day undersupplied. #Gas prices show a slight decline, with NBP Day-Ahead settling at 114.50 p/therm. Meanwhile, UK Power Day-Ahead Base dropped significantly to £77.75/MWh, down by £15.73, reflecting bearish conditions across the board. Colder weather looms as temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal norms from this weekend, increasing heating demand and pressure on energy systems. While #LNG send-outs remain steady, Norwegian exports are ramping up, mitigating some supply concerns despite additional planned maintenance at Sleipner and Gullfaks. UK gas demand surged to 248.77 mcm, driven by robust LDZ requirements. Wind generation is forecast to weaken next week, further tightening gas-for-#power needs. Power prices softened significantly due to strong wind generation earlier in the week and declining European gas storage levels, now at 84%, marking a 3% week-on-week drop. The geopolitical landscape adds complexity, with President Putin's decree easing payment methods for gas exports to counter sanctions against Gazprombank. Market reactions remain muted but watchful as these changes could influence European and UK energy curves further. On the global front, Brent crude is stable at $72.09/bbl, while coal prices fell to $115.54/tonne. Carbon trading saw minor dips, with EUA Dec 24 at €67.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 24 at £36.17/tonne, reflecting subdued industrial activity. Currency movements show a slight strengthening of the pound, with GBP/EUR at 1.2077 and GBP/USD at 1.2758. This offers mild relief for import-heavy energy trades but remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. As colder weather and supply challenges converge, market participants must stay vigilant, especially with LNG arrivals scheduled to bolster supplies. The evolving dynamics of European storage, renewables output, and geopolitical influences will continue shaping the market trajectory.

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Watch our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This week we highlight the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. Read our analysis below for more information! 👇 You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction| #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz | Julian Hernandez | Alison Bierlaire | Edward Bilton | Ian Muir | lukas walsh | Kaspar Strugar | Amelia Santerre | Lee Oakley

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On October 18th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with tighter gas supplies and fluctuating power prices, reflecting a complex mix of operational challenges and evolving demand forecasts. The system started the day 7 mcm undersupplied, with Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline reduced by 4 mcm due to ongoing maintenance. Two offshore projects in the UK Continental Shelf are also impacting supply, though both are expected to conclude today. However, the Oseberg field’s outage, cutting 27 mcm/day, has been extended until tomorrow, and Gullfaks will remain offline until November 1st. Gas prices are moving with these constraints. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly up from the previous session. Curve contracts were mixed, reflecting uncertainty around maintenance schedules and geopolitical tensions. Despite these disruptions, the UK is forecasted to receive one LNG cargo by month-end, while Belgium and France are set to take more significant volumes. In power markets, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price dipped to £86.58/MWh, down by £3.02 from the previous day. Peak power settled at £90.26/MWh, a noticeable drop from £96.70/MWh. Renewables are expected to support the grid with above-average wind speeds through October 26th, though forecasts suggest output may fall short of demand by around 2000 MWh/h towards the end of that period. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal norms for the next week, providing some relief to heating demand before colder conditions return. Oil prices remain steady, with Brent at $74.45/bbl, while carbon permits hover around €62.98/tonne for EUA Dec-24 contracts. Overall, the market remains on edge, with winter risks looming and the geopolitical environment adding further complexity. Traders will closely monitor the completion of maintenance schedules and incoming LNG deliveries, both of which are critical to stabilising the market in the coming days.

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Today October 11th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with a strong position, reflecting the ongoing shifts in both gas and power sectors. NBP day-ahead gas prices were up to 98.50p/therm, continuing the upward momentum seen from yesterday as colder-than-expected temperatures swept across Europe, leading to increased demand. The UK system opened long at 11mcm/day this morning due to revised down demand forecasts and higher flows from Norway through Langeled. Norwegian supply remains robust despite unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks, which are expected to resolve by early next week. LNG send-out remained steady at 12mcm/day, primarily from the South Hook terminal, with two LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. European storage levels are high, at 94.74%. UK day-ahead power prices surged to £87.67/MWh, driven by the rising gas prices and colder weather. Forward power contracts also saw gains, with November 2024 base contracts trading at £86.50/MWh, reflecting the tight supply outlook as temperatures are expected to remain below normal until early next week. EDF’s announcement that their output target for next year remains unchanged at 335-365TWh provides some stability to the market, although nuclear outages in the UK and Europe remain a concern. Notably, Sizewell B begins planned maintenance today, reducing its capacity by 490MW for the next 47 days. Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.40/bbl, fueled by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. In parallel, carbon prices climbed to €65.00/tonne for EUA Dec 2024, and UK ETS prices increased to £38.07/tonne. The rise in carbon prices adds further pressure on power markets, particularly as coal prices also saw a significant jump, with ARA CIF coal for Cal 2025 reaching $126.15/tonne. The currency markets saw minor fluctuations, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1949 and GBP/USD at 1.3058, as the energy sector keeps an eye on global economic indicators that could affect import costs and inflation. As we head into mid-October, the outlook remains bullish with colder temperatures expected to continue driving demand. Two more LNG cargoes are expected by early November, providing some relief, but supply risks persist. We could see continued price volatility as the market navigates these challenges.

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition |#BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry |#LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction |#NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz Julian Hernandez Kieran Chauhan Alison Bierlaire Edward Bilton Ian Muir lukas walsh Kaspar Strugar Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz Julian Hernandez Kieran Chauhan Alison Bierlaire Edward Bilton Ian Muir lukas walsh Kaspar Strugar Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz Julian Hernandez Kieran Chauhan Alison Bierlaire Edward Bilton Ian Muir lukas walsh Kaspar Strugar Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz Julian Hernandez Kieran Chauhan Alison Bierlaire Edward Bilton Ian Muir lukas walsh Kaspar Strugar Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | Latif Faiyaz Julian Hernandez Kieran Chauhan Alison Bierlaire Edward Bilton Ian Muir lukas walsh Kaspar Strugar Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | #AsianDemand | #Energy | #EUEnergy | #Gas | #Supply | Latif Faiyaz | Julian Hernandez | Kieran Chauhan | Alison Bierlaire | Edward Bilton | Ian Muir | lukas walsh | Kaspar Strugar | Amelia Santerre

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Read our Weekly #EnergyMarket Review! 📈 This report highlights the key drivers affecting UK gas and power markets last week. We review global gas prices, global power prices and provide analysis of the UK's power price curve. You can subscribe to our free Daily Market Reports here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ejmbhwns Or contact our trading desk via: 📧 [email protected] Read the report here! 👇 #EnergyMarkets | #EnergyTransition | #BusinessEnergy | #EnergyPrices | #EnergyIndustry | #LNG | #FossilFuels | #EV | #ClimateAction | #NetZeroTransition | #AsianDemand | #Energy | #EUEnergy | #Gas #Supply | Latif Faiyaz | Julian Hernandez | Kieran Chauhan | Alison Bierlaire | Edward Bilton | Ian Muir | lukas walsh | Kaspar Strugar | Amelia Santerre

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6th November 2024: UK energy markets are navigating a landscape marked by tightening gas supplies, volatile power demand, and the shifting influences of global commodities. This morning’s gas prices settled with NBP Day-Ahead at 102.60 p/therm, reflecting mixed market signals. Reduced output from Norway’s Visund gas field yesterday, due to unplanned maintenance, has now resumed but highlighted the delicate balance of UK gas supply. Meanwhile, demand for gas in power generation remains elevated, exacerbated by limited wind generation expected over the next few days before a brief pickup ahead of the weekend. Today’s power market sees UK Day-Ahead Baseload at £118.48/MWh, with peak prices reaching £146.12/MWh. This surge is tied to reduced renewable generation as both wind and solar production remain low, primarily due to persistent cloud coverage and minimal wind speeds. Nuclear constraints also weigh in, with two reactors offline, totalling 1.2 GW of unavailable capacity. These reactors are expected back online in late November and early December, underscoring the near-term pressure on UK baseload power stability. The UK’s reliance on LNG continues, with three cargoes inbound over the coming days to ease the supply strain. LNG has become an increasingly vital component in balancing UK energy needs, especially as colder months approach. Across the continent, Northwest Europe is also set to receive substantial LNG imports, adding to the supply pool yet facing the same regional weather constraints affecting renewable generation. In the broader energy landscape, Brent crude oil is steady at $75.53 per barrel, while coal remains strong at $120.97/tonne for next year’s ARA CIF contract. Carbon markets reflect moderate changes with EU allowances (EUA) at €64.30 per tonne and UK ETS at £38.34 per tonne. These values underscore the dual pressures of regulatory carbon targets and market adjustments to evolving demand. Today’s session highlights the ongoing dynamics between domestic production, international imports, and the variable output of renewables in shaping the UK’s energy market. As supply adjustments unfold, close monitoring of gas flows, nuclear capacity, and renewables will be key to maintaining equilibrium in both pricing and availability across the market.

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I have written something for our weekly newsletter distributed today “The predominant narrative can’t be changed by simply pointing to technological developments, financial investment in clean energy or green policy changes. All of that is important. “But as individuals we will not be open to the narrative of capacity, capability and agency unless we touch that openness within ourselves, unless we are aware of the fact that we are incredibly powerful: that our thoughts, our words and our actions have an effect on the outside world, and that therefore we can, if we collectively choose to, address climate change in the timeframe that science has established. “But it must start at the roots of who we are, who we want to be in this world, and how we show up.” This is a recent LinkedIn post from Christiana Figueres, the chief negotiator of the Paris 2015 agreement. It got me thinking. Yes we need political leadership and we need financial leadership to support the transition for a carbon-free future. But where is the clamour to make it happen? Are we prepared to be indignant but not actually do much about it? It is within all of us to be leaders on this subject, at work, at home, and in our behaviours. We should not be waiting to be told what to do. We should be telling our political and financial leaders what we want to happen and when we want to see it happen. We see climate change high on voters’ priorities in the many surveys conducted during election periods but that does not play out in the conversations that happen between politicians in elections. The point of the post to me is we have to ask ourselves what do we want our future to look like? There is the art of the possible. It comes with change. It comes with adaptation. It comes at a price but it is possible. There is scientific evidence and thinking to show how we can reach a carbon-free future. But what are we really willing to do to get there? Who will and how will we deliver net zero? The answer to me is it is down to all of us. We have to want this to happen to make it happen. And we have to work together (not against) each other to make it a reality. That means understanding and discussing the trade-offs. The biggest one we must accept is the cost. Change on this scale does not come cheap and we should not hide from that fact. Instead, we should focus on mechanisms that make it achievable across all sections of society through new thinking and new financial systems. This could be the biggest challenge we face as a generation. A reply of it was all just a bit too costly will hopefully not be our legacy. The cost to rebuild tends to be greater than the cost to prevent in the end. So, it will be all of us who deliver net zero. We all have a part to play big or small. We all need to ask ourselves what it is that we want for the environment and the future. And then ask ourselves what we are going to do about it and when. https://lnkd.in/eB-BAvJ7  

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