Martin Prior

A-Z of Transport Economics: T for TAG This week’s edition is a bit of a love letter to TAG, the Department for Transport (DfT), United Kingdom's Transport Analysis Guidance. For appraisal practitioners in the UK, this is the first point of call for all things modelling and appraisal related (not forgetting that Wales and Scotland also have their own versions of appraisal guidance, WelTAG and STAG respectively). TAG contains a comprehensive set of ‘Units’, which are documents each focusing on a separate area of appraisal – e.g. unit A3 deals with environmental appraisal, A4-3 deals with place-based analysis and so on. These units tackle a given topic in depth, outlining how they should be approached when it comes to producing a transport appraisal. It was great to see updated modelling units released recently, developed by Arup along with partners from AECOM and Systra – especially the new Agent-Based Modelling Unit M5-4, an area that our City Modelling Lab has been championing for years. There are also a range of spreadsheets and workbooks intended to assist with estimating impacts – the TAG Data Book contains loads of information about things like values of time, vehicle occupancy, journey purpose and much more, whilst the Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit can be used to appraise active travel schemes. The DfT’s Transport Appraisal and Strategic Modelling division makes refinements over time to keep it up to date and ensure that it captures the latest findings and research. A welcome introduction in the past couple of years has been the TAG Conference (aka ‘TAG Fest’) which includes a range of presentations on topical issues and hopefully will have the same longevity as Glastonbury! TAG is available from here and is very near the top of my bookmarks bar! https://lnkd.in/eN6qfyuF #WeAreArup #TransportEconomicsAtoZ #transporteconomics #TAG #TPSE #transportanalysisguidance

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📢 New paper alert - 'Practitioner views on transport planning's evolution - a Sisyphean task still ahead?' by Daniela Paddeu, Glenn Lyons, Kiron Chatterjee and Tom Calvert Transport planning as a formalised profession is relatively young and there is no doubt it has evolved over time. In Europe, Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans reflect a change in emphasis from keeping traffic moving to place-based, people-centric planning. Three new developments of significance present themselves to contemporary transport planning: the collision and merging of the digital age with the motor age; a widespread sense of deep (and possibly deepening) uncertainty about the future; and the imperative to address the climate emergency and decarbonise transport. Taken together, such developments are reflected in the recent notion of Triple Access Planning which sits within a so-called ‘decide and provide’ paradigm – contrasted with traditional transport planning within the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm. The world is changing significantly with a strong sense that transport planning needs to change accordingly. This paper draws upon the ‘7 Questions Interview’  technique to explore with 23 practitioners in the UK their experience of transport planning practice over time, their hopes and fears for its future and what could be achieved, and their views on enablers of, and barriers to, positive change. The interviews reveal a strong sense that transport planning can face a Sisyphean (seemingly impossible) task of advocating measures that could push towards realisation of  economic, social and environmental aspirations, only to find progress with measure approval and implementation thwarted by perennial challenges including lack of political will and public buy-in. While the three new developments mentioned represent potential catalysts for significant change, such change relies on multiple other factors. These include collaborative cross-sector working, a long-term perspective, appropriate funding and political agency, and enhanced communication skills to win hearts and minds. The paper concludes that Sisyphus may continue to struggle to push the transport planning boulder to the top of the hill; unless perhaps Hercules can lend a hand. Download for free here: https://lnkd.in/eEQtagg8 #transportplanning #decideandprovide #tripleaccessplanning

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Two weeks after the landslide win for Labour in the general election and eight days after the new Secretary of State for Transport announced her five key priorities, we gathered four UWE professors role-playing as spads to hear what they had to say by way of advice to the new ministerial team. DfT’s new motto is to move fast and fix things. Its strategic priorities include: improving railway performance; improving bus services and their use; transforming infrastructure to work for everyone; delivering greener transport; and better integrating transport networks. Since DfT is moving fast we hope it is capable of thinking while running and can take on board the words of advice from our spads. Their advice was shared as part of the annual CTS Symposium at UWE on 18 July. In summary: Professor Steve Gooding (former Director General in the DfT) emphasises the need to sort out the wretched condition of the road network – road maintenance funding plays to the strategic priorities. And says be sure that Transport and Housing are joined at the hip so that one does not create problems for the other. Oh, and move fast on RIS3 with a focus on maintenance and resilience to help fix things. Professor Helen Bowkett (who knows a thing or two about transport appraisal) highlights her concern over three obsessions – with speed (not the ‘moving fast’ implied in the DfT motto), with trains, and with Benefit:Cost Ratios. Helen’s message – playing to the DfT priorities, is to not let speed, trains and BCRs overshadow the investment case for buses and to also acknowledge that broad(er) range of impacts need to be considered when making policy and investment decisions. Professor Jo Barnes (who has been a long-term expert commentator on local air pollution and environmental justice) wants to see the 2030 phase-out date for internal combustion engine vehicles reinstated alongside standing up to motor manufacturers against more stringent emissions standards. Air pollution is a major inequality and open discussion on this needs reinvigorating, alongside the unhealthy trend of supersizing cars. Professor Phil Goodwin (former Transport White Paper advisory committee chair for John Prescott) calls for an immediate independent review of National Highways’ appraisals to address the queue of road schemes, and establishing a new independent agency for future scheme appraisal. He also considers it essential that the war on the motorist is deweaponised to allow a more grown-up look at the future of transport. What takeaways emerged? Our spads spoke well to Louise Haigh MP's agenda (with their advice having been crafted largely independently of this). There is a healthy tension between thinking before planning, planning pragmatically, and implementing fast. Get going on what seems approximately right and pause for thought on what might instinctively be wrong. Apply joined-up thinking to wicked problems. And put the Principles of Public Life into practice along the way.

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All change! Transport operators are wrestling with new travel patterns. In recent years UK transport operators have endured a series of structural shocks, including: 🟢shifts in consumer behaviour triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic 🟢surging cost inflation 🟢government policy interventions A few economists from the #Transport and #Strategy teams, Tim Black, Matthew Shepherd and Alicia Wyke, provide their insights in the first chapter of our latest collection of articles ‘🚉The long road to cleaner transport and travel’, examining how the challenges of changing demands mirror those faced by many other retail and consumer markets. It also discusses how transport businesses are evolving their value strategies in response to these changes. Click here to read their analysis: https://okt.to/Hz1bi3

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Another great publication this week from our Triple Access Planning for uncertain futures project. We have interviewed 23 practitioners in the UK to understand their perspective towards the past, the present, and the future of transport planning. They have shared with us their experience of transport planning practice over time, their hopes and fears for its future and what could be achieved, and their views on enablers of, and barriers to, positive change. Glenn has made a great summary of what we found out in his post below, but if you want to know more, you are free to read the full paper here (FREE access): https://lnkd.in/dyudPxaW Let me know what you think! :) Glenn Lyons Kiron Chatterjee Tom Calvert University of the West of England #decideandprovide #tripleaccessplanning #transportplanning #foresight

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📌 Network Rail's Aim in Reducing Travel Times ⏱️ Network #Rail and Transport for Wales have collaborated to reduce journey times between multiple #UK's cities. 🔍 Important Insights - Removal of dozens historical speed restrictions - Speed enhancements for #Class 67 locomotives hauling Mark 4 carriages resulting in reduction of 38 out of 40 restrictions on the #Marches Line - Shortened journeys by approximately 10 minutes between Cardiff and Manchester - The improvements will align all trains to run at the line's top speed for the first time - Passengers are already enjoying 10-minute #shorter journeys between Cardiff and Manchester - Planned improvements set to reflect in the December 2024 timetable change - Future potential for similar enhancements across new routes Reducing travel time will enhance connectivity and improve the utilization of railway network track capacity. Source: Rail UK #RailwayInnovation #NetworkRail #UKRail _ _ _ 👍 Like if you find value, re-post ♻️, and follow for more interesting tech, and innovation insights.

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The Labour Rail Policy makes an interesting read. They list 8 key bullet points to focus on. Two of these being "automatic delay repay" and "best price fare Pay As You Go ticketing". These are two key areas that Tracsis iBlocks has been involved in for many years, supporting a number of Train Operators. It is pleasing to see that whichever party leads the next government these two important areas will continue to be championed. At Tracsis iBlocks we remain committed to continue to support our rail customers and develop our products in the area of automatic delay repay and Pay As You Go ticketing

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A-Z of Transport Economics: W for Wider Economic Impacts Historically, transport economic appraisal focused mostly on the benefits to users of the transport system - time savings, vehicle operating costs and so on. But transport can also deliver a range of benefits to the wider economy, and this has increasingly been recognised over the past 10-20 years. In TAG appraisals, 'Wider Economic Impacts' refer to a specific set of benefits which are all about how transport projects can impact on Gross Value Added. One of these is agglomeration, which reflects the benefits of economic density and the ways in which improving connectivity can impact upon that. This type of impact is strongest for large schemes that serve major economic centres. Wider Economic Impacts can be complex to model, and sometimes those models can be a bit of a 'black box' where it is difficult to understand the process by which the inputs translate into outputs. However, Arup has developed the Dynamic City Model which offers a quick, transparent and dynamic way of undertaking this type of assessment. My colleagues Csaba Pogonyi and Adriana Moreno Pelayo are the best contacts if you would like to find out more! With the Olympics starting this week I've gone with a Throwback Thursday from London 2012 for this week's picture - plenty of great memories from all those events in Stratford (disclaimer: I was in a paid role but still got a games maker uniform)! And it's great that Arup will be leading the next stage of design work for London’s Stratford station and public realm redevelopment, I look forward to seeing how that progresses. https://lnkd.in/egP4DbJy #WeAreArup #TransportEconomicsAtoZ #transporteconomics #TPSE #widereconomicimpacts #widereconomicbenefits #agglomeration

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"So if you generate enough demand, your demand responsive bus could become a fixed line?" This was an interesting question relating to the Go2Gate DRT case study I presented with James West at the Association for European Transport (AET) European Transport Conference. I've thought about the success of the service design quite a bit and this is one example I think it would be hard to move to fixed line. The design of Go2Gate was to enable a 30 minute journey time (to compete with car travel) between Heathrow Airport and the residential area of Dedworth with only a short walk to bus stops as this is important to this group of passengers (who often have luggage). The Go2Gate service serves 170 virtual stops to ensure this - but only calls at those which are booked. The layout of the roads in Dedworth are such that a fixed route going sufficiently close to the homes to achieve this would have to follow an intricate route around the housing area - adding to the journey time which would then make it much longer than the journey by car. By picking up and setting down only when and where booked, Go2Gate needs only to stop at the stops booked and then travels by the fastest route to Heathrow. Booking is the trade off that enables a fast and convenient service that competes with the car. It's not always true - DRT can reveal demand where a fixed line would have similar journey times - but I think not in this case. It's exciting to see a service which has given people a realistic option to take the bus. Thanks to Padam Mobility for the data and information underpinning the paper and Nigel Dennis for the question.

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Rail operator First Rail has released an ambitious report outlining strategies to unlock ‘Generation Rail’ by 2050 👇 ‘Generation Rail’ makes recommendations to encourage millions of young people to not only choose train travel over alternative modes of transport but to become lifelong advocates for Britain’s railways in decades to come. First Rail is part of transport operator FirstGroup and the report draws on the Group’s decades of running privately-operated train services in the UK. Today, the business operates GWR, SWR and Avanti West Coast under Department for Transport contracts, as well as open access routes under the Lumo and Hull Trains brands. You can read more about their research and report here: https://lnkd.in/eCUBjqax #Rail #Travel #NextGeneration

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This article is a great case study on RIA's campaigning work on behalf of rail suppliers. In this case rolling stock and electrification suppliers. By way of an update to the article, I am pleased to say that we are making good progress on the one of the key recommendations of our most recent report 👇 "to empower a cross industry group to further develop and test the RIA strategy and confirm the minimum additional electrification to deliver net zero for passengers and freight by 2050." This article is a great case study on RIA's campaigning work on behalf of rail suppliers. In this case rolling stock and electrification suppliers. By way of an update to the article, I am pleased to say that we are making good progress on the one of the key recommendations of our most recent report 👇 "to empower a cross industry group to further develop and test the RIA strategy and confirm the minimum additional electrification to deliver net zero for passengers and freight by 2050." https://lnkd.in/e2P8ie5c …see more A lower cost, higher performing net zero railway riagb.org.uk

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A compelling case being made by Diccon Spain in regards to the BBET initiative. This isn’t party political, it just makes sense, it’s based on what was originally intended. The post-pandemic landscape and adjust to the evolving needs of rail travel, the discussion around the reopening of Eurostar services at Ebbsfleet and Ashford International stations becomes very relevant. Eurostar's original strategy was centered on providing seamless connectivity between the UK and Europe, with Ebbsfleet and Ashford stations playing pivotal roles. These stations were integral to expanding the accessibility of high-speed rail services beyond London, offering convenient travel options for those in the Southeast. The aim was to foster greater mobility, support regional economies, and enhance the overall passenger experience by reducing travel times and improving convenience. In recent months, we have seen a stabilisation in train passenger numbers, aligning closely with pre-pandemic levels. Notably, whilst there has been a shift in travel patterns, with an increase in weekend journeys reflecting changing work habits and leisure travel preferences. Given this context, the reopening of Ebbsfleet and Ashford stations presents a significant opportunity for Eurostar to capture this re-evolving market. But for challenges faced by cross-channel services is the increased complexity of travel checks due to Brexit. The necessity for more thorough checks on UK citizens entering Europe has added time and resource constraints. However, reopening Ebbsfleet and Ashford could (in my opinion) alleviate some of this pressure by distributing passenger flows more evenly, reducing congestion at St Pancras and providing alternative entry points to the continent. A Compelling Case for Reopening: Reopening these stations would not only restore the convenience that many travelers enjoyed pre-pandemic but also support Eurostar in its mission to offer efficient and sustainable travel options. It would: 1/ Improve access for passengers from the Southeast, reducing travel times and the need to transit through central London. 2/ Stimulate local economies in Kent by increasing passenger footfall and related business activities. 3/ Distribute the demand more effectively, potentially reducing wait times and improving the overall journey experience, especially in light of new travel checks. In light of these points, it is clear that there are compelling reasons for Eurostar to consider the reopening of Ebbsfleet and Ashford International stations. This move would align with the original vision of widespread connectivity and support the resurgence of rail travel in a post-pandemic world. As per the original post, support the initiative and advocate for decisions that bolster our rail infrastructure, enhance passenger convenience, and promote sustainable travel. #Eurostar #RailTravel #Connectivity

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The new government’s plans for the railways involves setting up a new organisation, Great British Railways (GBR), to improve the rail network with a focus on the experience for passengers and freight customers. The aim is to use data in a more effective way, by bringing together data from across the rail industry, filling in the gaps and improving the quality of data. Having a vision for data is key to solving the existing challenges that exist in the industry, which need to be addressed for a reform of this scale. Our Director in Data Analytics, Jessica Booth shares her perspective on what GBR will mean for citizens and describes the outputs of our work on the data strategy. Watch below. Find out more about how you can re-define the path to a Smart Government through connecting technology, people and processes: http://spkl.io/60474CLgd

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https://lnkd.in/e7xN8SgP Laudable, but we need north-south rail capacity and east-west rail more too. That means rebuilding/new builds to inform more orbital links for West Midlands and East Midlands and connections thereof. E.g. #Oxford-#Leicester could be direct if the missing piece of railway between #Northampton and Market Harborough (MH) is rebuilt and an east-north direct running curve put in for #Birmingham-#Rugby/DIRFT-Leicester (more options/capacity) and vice versa. Likewise a study to look at a new rail link between the Rugby area with the Leicester/Leicester-Nuneaton lines could serve developments like Magna Park, never existed in Great Central days and also bring the #Lutterworth area back onto the rail network. Otherwise we have some freight by rail, but lion's share on the roads and with more development, congestion and gridlock alongside loss of land for other uses beit housing, leisure, conservation and food-farming, is lost and we're poorer too. Who will blink first, have power to call in such sprawls and ensure the rail network can deliver 90% freight by rail unfolding, not a mere 10% if lucky! #Knighton-#Burton rail link could serve for diversionary north-south feright to create more capacity through Leicester. #networkrail #dft #rail #railways #transport #environment #links #newlines #people #modalshift #modalchoice

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re: https://lnkd.in/ewBQtqfs This report shows a shortfall in transport infrastructure spending and we should take note that across the board infrastructure is coming up the agenda of what is fundamental to civilised existence (water for example) but environmentally, land use wise and that of cutting emissions, it is more and better rail infrastructure where the deficit is felt. Modal shift in many cases cannot happen without reopening programmes of real local lines and associated infrastructure projects to enable small to large modal shift transfer of freight and people travel patterns from road to rail. In Bedford, it is East-West Rail which dominates, but is sluggish in progress regarding accessing Bedford and notions of rails to the East which needs proper leadership with a discernment and based on sound local knowledge. BRTA has said what it feels is best, we have offered to look at maps of Bedford Midland layout and discuss what could be rearranged to enable a twin bay additional infrastructure for Oxford-Cambridge passenger operations and two twin track access to existing Midland Main Line slows for freight. Ford End Road Bridge may be listed, but is a problem for enabling optimum rail redesign and 8 coach platforms for example. In our view, the station booking hall should go back to the old station site, looking down Midland Road towards the town centre, not an urban Parkway design, in the middle facing a housing estate! Likewise, we want attention for Stations North of Bedford, and a way forward may be to direct Thameslink trains to serve Corby and focus EMR trains on a seamless Bedford-Leicester electric fast and slow service, windowing reopening of local stations and a shuttle to link into principal main line stations feeding to and from accordingly. Should one have 2-3 changes to get to Sheffield or Leeds from the Midland Main Line? We don't think that is optimising infrastructure! So, we keep on, and lack of like the Northampton-Market Harborough deficit, should be being led on by paid, professional agencies and lead organisations from councils to government, with public input on how it may work, not NIMBYISM verus dire need. The stalemate cannot go on. So, head-in-sand is to reject local rail solutions like East-West Rail, but it has been handled badly, too remotely and East of Bedford via St John's should be the prescription with councils and leaders all on board. Get to link with ECML at Tempsford area first, then yes, the new ECML-Cambridge alignment, due to extensive blockages of the old varsity route from Sandy to Trumpington, is the way it has to be. The roads are being dualled, development is happening, so prudence calls for rail alternatives surely? That is where, of whatever shade, a new government will need to make a priority now, not 10 years time! https://lnkd.in/dhC42vZ

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Really good to see tackling regional inequality and the UK Government's new growth mission running through Louise Haigh MP's five strategic priorities as the new Secretary of State for Transport. Priorities: https://lnkd.in/etsU9FfB Lots to do, but it feels like a really good start for the new government, setting a positive tone about the future of rail and integrated transport. Global Centre Of Rail Excellence Chief Executive Simon Jones wrote a piece yesterday looking at the opportunities for rail in the new focus on industrial strategy. GCRE Piece: https://lnkd.in/d-_JTxE8 #Rail #IndustrialStrategy

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📌 Electrification of Track at Long Marston Rail Innovation Centre 🛤️ #Porterbrook, a British rolling stock company, has announced a significant update to electrify the 3.5-kilometre track at the Long Marston Rail Innovation Centre. After completion, the track will support #testing including #ETCS in-cab signaling. 💰 Investment The project is a part of over £75m invested in the centre since 2021. 🚄 Capabilities The electrified track will accommodate #testing at speeds up to 50mph and support various forms of traction like hydrogen, battery, and diesel. 🛠️Tech Integration It includes adoption of the European Train Control System (ETCS) alongside other traction forms like #hydrogen, #battery, and #diesel. 🗓️ Completion Scheduled by the end of 2025. According to Mary Grant, CEO of Porterbrook "The track upgrades mean that we can deliver the best level of service with our manufacturing partners to provide a full turnkey solution for new rolling stock entering service.” Source: railway-news.com #RailInnovation #UKTransport #SustainableRail #Electrification #InfrastructureDevelopment _ _ _ 👍 Like if you find value, re-post ♻️, and follow for more interesting tech, and innovation insights.

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📌 ETCS Signaling Tests on Intercity Rails in UK 🏁 The first intercity #ETCS L2 signaling tests were conducted by operator Great Northern on the UK’s East Coast Main Line. 🔑 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 - The tests were conducted on the route between Welwyn Garden City and Hitchin by Great Northern operator as part of Govia #Thameslink Railway (GTR). - This initiative is the initial phase of an ongoing programme that is set to continue until mid-2025, utilizing the European Train Control System (ETCS). - The tests are part of the broader £1.4 #billion East Coast Digital Programme (#ECDP) which aims to equip the East Coast Main Line with advanced signalling solutions. Introduction of ETCS system is a step towards increasing interoperability, safety and efficiency of the UK's railway system. Source: railway-technology.com #DigitalRail #UKRail #ERTMS #GTR #SiemensMobility _ _ _ 👍 Like if you find value, re-post ♻️, and follow for more interesting tech, and innovation insights.

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The independent “Future Skills Assessment for the Transport Sector” report published by The Department for Transport (DfT), United Kingdom provides a comprehensive overview of the skills required to support the UK’s transport sector in the coming years. It highlights the evolving nature of the industry, driven by technological advancements, environmental considerations and changing consumer behaviours. The report underscores the importance of upskilling and reskilling the workforce to meet future demands and ensure the sector’s sustainability and competitiveness. The report identifies several key areas where skills development is crucial: ➡ Technological innovation: Emphasises the need for expertise in emerging technologies such as autonomous vehicles, electric propulsion, and digital infrastructure. The integration of these technologies is essential for modernising the transport network and improving efficiency. ➡ Environmental sustainability: Highlights the growing importance of skills related to sustainable practices, including knowledge of low-emission technologies and sustainable urban planning. This is in response to the increasing focus on reducing the transport sector’s carbon footprint. ➡ Data and digital skills: Stresses the necessity for advanced data analytics and digital skills to manage and interpret the vast amounts of data generated by modern transport systems. These skills are vital for optimising operations and enhancing user experiences. ➡ Customer service and soft skills: Recognises the ongoing need for strong customer service skills and other soft skills such as communication, problem-solving, and adaptability. These are essential for maintaining high standards of service and addressing the diverse needs of passengers. ➡ Collaboration and partnership: Encourages collaboration between industry, government and educational institutions to develop and implement effective training programmes. Partnerships are seen as key to ensuring that the workforce is equipped with the necessary skills. It concludes by recommending a strategic approach to skills development, involving continuous learning and adaptation to keep pace with industry changes. It calls for investment in education and training initiatives to build a resilient and future-ready workforce. NSAR, #skills, #Capita https://lnkd.in/eB5KyHtf

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