Mark Noone

Morning Briefing 26/06/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 27.5GW and due to peak this evening at 28.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £65 - £114 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £84.19 in the 1hr and £84.79 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 1.4GW and due to climb over 9GW this evening and continue up to 16GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 9.8GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £106.28/MWh with gas providing 36.4%/10.56GW, wind providing 7.1%/2.06GW, solar providing 10.4%/3.02GW and nuclear providing 18.1%/5.27GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 83.00p/th (2.83p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at 68.50/MWh (6.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (July 24) ·July NBP gas is currently up 0.69% at 82.15p/th (2.80p/KWh). ·July TTF gas is currently up 0.77% at €35.12MWh. ·July UK Baseload closed at £73.50/MWh (7.35p/KWh) ·UK gas prices climbed slightly again yesterday, with the DA price closing 0.61% up due to the weak renewable sector. Along the curve, the market reacted more, with the Win24 contract up 1.29% on slight worries of supply over the peak demand season. ·UK power prices again followed the gas sentiment, with the DA price up 2.53% due to the forecast low wind generation for today. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was up 0.95% on worries over future supply for the upcoming peak demand season and into winter. ·According to Gassco AS, there is an unplanned outage at the Visund asset this morning, with an unavailable capacity of 12.6mcm. ·Capacity from Denmark to the UK over the 1.4GW Viking Link increased from 800MW to 1GW from yesterday, capacity from the UK to Denmark will remain at 1.1GW. ·Oil prices are up this morning, despite a surprise jump in US stockpiles, driven by geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict and forecasts of an eventual inventory drawdown during the third quarter peak demand season. ·Latest forecasts continue to show temps to be above seasonal norms for the coming days and then fall slightly to averages.   ·We are expecting 1 LNG cargo in the coming weeks.   ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 81.59p/th (2.78p/KWh) up 2.38% DoD* o   Q4 24 98.02p/th (3.35p/KWh) up 1.36% DoD o   Winter 24 100.75p/th (3.44p/KWh) up 1.29% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £74.25/MWh (7.43p/KWh) up 2.77% DoD* o   Q4 24 £85.95MWh (8.60p/KWh) up 0.73% DoD o   Winter 24 £89.05MWh (8.91p/KWh) up 0.95% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary William Sam Karl Martin Chart credit - e*star #energy #power #gas #markets #renewables #wind #lng #energymarkets #norway

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Morning Briefing 25/06/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 27.4GW and due to peak this evening at 28.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £60 - £115 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £82.11 in the 1hr and £82.21 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 1.3GW and due to climb to 3.3GW this evening and then climb to over 11GW tomorrow evening. Solar is due to peak at 8.9GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £94.59/MWh with gas providing 36.0%/10.43GW, wind providing 4.2%/1.21GW, solar providing 10.1%/2.93GW and nuclear providing 17.4%/5.05GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 80.03p/th (2.73p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at 81.00/MWh (8.10p/KWh)   Month ahead (July 24) ·July NBP gas is currently up 1.96% at 81.25p/th (2.77p/KWh). ·July TTF gas is currently up 2.16% at €34.80MWh. ·July UK Baseload closed at £71.00/MWh (7.10p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were relatively flat most of yesterday but rose in the afternoon due to the forecast lower renewables, with the DA climbing 2.24%. Along the curve, the market was fairly unchanged, despite some unplanned Norwegian outages and new from EU council had adopted its 14th sanctions package against Russia, with the Win24 contract up 0.11%. ·UK power prices followed a similar trend to the gas market, with the DA price climbing nearly 6% due to the forecast of low wind generation today. Along the curve, the prices had support from the gas market, with the Win24 contract climbing 0.8%. ·According to Gassco AS, there are 2 unplanned outages this morning which is reducing Norwegian flow by 12.1mcm. ·Oil prices are little changed this morning after rising yesterday helped by expectations of increased fuel demand tis summer, but investors were cautious ahead of US consumer price data. ·Latest forecasts show temps to be over seasonal norms for the coming days and then drop more in line with averages towards end of the week. ·We are expecting 1 LNG cargo in the coming weeks.   ·UK Gas prices as of Mondays close -  o   Month ahead 79.69p/th (2.72p/KWh) up 0.68% DoD* o   Q4 24 96.71p/th (3.30p/KWh) up 0.02% DoD o   Winter 24 99.47p/th (3.39p/KWh) up 0.11% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Mondays close – o   Month ahead £72.25/MWh (7.23p/KWh) up 0.28% DoD* o   Q4 24 £85.32MWh (8.53p/KWh) up 1.00% DoD o   Winter 24 £88.21Wh (8.82p/KWh) up 0.80% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary William Sam Karl Martin Chart credit - e*star #energy #power #gas #markets #renewables #wind #lng #energymarkets #norway

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Wednesday 20th November - This morning, the UK energy market faces a mix of colder temperatures, rising demand, and fluctuating supply dynamics. Day-ahead gas prices at the NBP have softened to 114.75 p/therm, reflecting a 4.25 p/therm drop since yesterday, as markets adjust to eased supply concerns from stable Russian gas flows. UK power baseload prices followed suit, declining to £98.18/MWh. The UK gas system opened with a notable 16mcm/day oversupply, but consumption is surging as temperatures drop to over 5°C below the seasonal average. LDZ demand is forecasted at 252mcm/day, pushing gas-for-power consumption higher than the previous day. Despite steady imports from Norway, wind generation remains variable, adding further pressure on thermal plants. Six LNG cargoes, including one from the U.S. arriving at South Hook today, are expected to provide some relief in the coming weeks. Storage levels remain robust, with pan-European facilities at 90.3% capacity. UK-specific reserves are also well-stocked, though withdrawals from MRS and Rough indicate active use during this cold spell. On the power side, generation is leaning heavily on gas, with renewables contributing intermittently due to fluctuating wind speeds. Interconnector flows have been stable, supporting the grid amid rising peak demand forecasts. In global markets, Brent crude held steady at $73.31/bbl, while European carbon prices slipped slightly to €68.13/tonne. Currency movements were muted, with GBP/EUR trading at 1.1956. As we brace for what may be the coldest day of this weather pattern tomorrow, all eyes are on how supply dynamics and LNG arrivals will shape the immediate market trajectory. Stay tuned for updates as the energy sector navigates these winter challenges.

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19th November Energy Market Update – As temperatures across Northwest Europe dip further below the five-year average, the UK energy market remains on a bullish trajectory. Yesterday's session saw gas and power prices strengthen amidst increased demand, supply-side challenges, and reduced nuclear generation. This morning, the UK gas system opened long by 22 mcm/day. Demand for heating is on the rise, with temperatures forecasted to drop another two degrees today. Total LDZ demand is expected to increase correspondingly, while gas-for-power demand remains steady. Norwegian gas flows into the UK are robust at 111 mcm/day, complemented by healthy LNG send-outs of 76 mcm/day. Notably, the UK anticipates eight LNG tankers in the coming weeks, with two arrivals from the United States today. This stable supply chain is vital as the continent's storage withdrawals continue, with pan-European storage levels at 90.74%. On the power side, prices have mirrored the upward momentum of gas markets. Yesterday's unplanned maintenance at Heysham nuclear plant has temporarily curtailed UK nuclear output to 4.1 GW, with the outage projected to last 28 days. Wind generation is forecasted to hover around seasonal norms, providing limited relief as cold weather persists. In broader markets, Brent crude has climbed to $73.30 per barrel, and European carbon prices edged higher, with EUA Dec-24 certificates trading at €69.51 per tonne. Meanwhile, the pound saw mixed movement, standing at €1.1967 and $1.2676 against the euro and dollar, respectively. Today's dynamics emphasize a familiar winter trend: rising energy demand coupled with supply-side uncertainties. With colder weather and further strain on generation assets likely, the market will be closely monitoring developments in supply routes and storage usage across Europe. Stay warm and stay informed as we navigate another dynamic week in the UK energy market.

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Drax sells 90,000 SME customers to EDF Energy - These customer meter points were originally acquired by Drax Group, as part of its purchase of Opus Energy in 2017, a transaction valued at £340 million. In its announcement to the London Stock Exchange, Drax noted that various other segments of the Opus business have been integrated into its core industrial and commercial (I&C) energy supply operations over the past seven years. This includes the renewables business, which manages the group’s power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy producers, alongside other specified components. Drax sees these actions as reinforcing its commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and advancing its Energy Solutions (Customers) division, which focuses on industrial and commercial clients, renewable energy and energy services. The group confirmed that its Energy Solutions segment will remain unaltered by the sale of Opus SME assets and the group’s expectations for Energy Solutions earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) remain unchanged following this transaction. https://lnkd.in/eePcCQXe

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25th November 2024 – A sharp drop in temperatures and low wind generation reshape the UK energy landscape today. Following an unseasonably warm weekend, the UK is now facing a shift as temperatures fall 3°C below seasonal norms. This significant drop is expected to increase heating demand, applying bullish pressure on prompt UK gas prices. Adding to the strain, wind power generation is forecast to remain 20% below average for the season, further supporting elevated price levels in the UK energy markets. At present, the UK gas grid is forecast to close 42.02mcm long, which might exert some bearish influence on prompt gas prices. However, the wider picture shows aggregated EU gas storage levels declining to 87% capacity, with daily withdrawals averaging 0.45%. Such a steady drawdown in storage could amplify concerns over supply tightness later in the winter, lending support to near-curve UK gas prices in the weeks ahead. In the pricing landscape, the NBP Day-Ahead gas price remains stable at 114.40 p/th (-0.06%), while UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged to £68.27/MWh, marking a remarkable 57.58% increase. This reflects the immediate impact of reduced wind power output and higher demand due to colder weather. Front-month December contracts, however, are softer: gas trades at 116.99 p/th (-3.34%), and power at £95.15/MWh (-3.73%). Further out, Q1-25 contracts for UK gas and power are trading lower, with gas at 118.73 p/th (-2.87%) and power at £100.26/MWh (-3.12%). Seasonal contracts like Summer 2025 show a similar trend, as prices ease across the board in line with robust LNG imports and a longer-term outlook for stable supply. In broader markets, Brent Crude has risen modestly to $75.17/barrel (+1.25%), reflecting continued geopolitical influences. Meanwhile, carbon markets remain mixed, with EU carbon allowances (EUA) for December 2024 trading lower at €69.27/tonne (-1.04%), while UK carbon allowances (UKA) rose 1.22% to £37.31/tonne. On the currency front, the GBP/EUR exchange rate has firmed slightly to 1.203 (+0.024%), while GBP/USD softened to 1.253 (-0.423%). As the week unfolds, market participants will closely monitor the combined impact of colder weather, reduced renewable output, and gas storage trends. While near-term pressures persist, the interplay of supply and demand will remain a key driver of volatility. Stay tuned for more insights as the energy market evolves this winter. Let me know if there are any additional details you'd like to include!

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             Morning Briefing 14/10/2024   Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 34.7GW and due to peak this evening at 37.1GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £65 - £251 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £102.16 in the 1hr and £110.71 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 3.4GW and due to drop to 2.4GW this afternoon before climbing up to over 15GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.4GW at 1pm. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £104.00/MWh with gas providing 55.9%/19.56GW, wind providing 13.1%/4.60GW, solar providing 0.9%/0.33GW and nuclear providing 11.1%/3.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 95.50p/th (3.26p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £87.25/MWh (8.73p/KWh)   Month ahead (Nov 24) ·Nov NBP gas is currently up 0.80% at 100.23p/th (3.42p/KWh). ·Nov TTF gas is currently up 0.75% at €40.18MWh. ·Nov UK Baseload closed at £86.50/MWh (8.65p/KWh) ·UK gas prices had a negative day on Friday, with the DA price down 2.13%, due to the rise in renewables and drop in demand over the weekend. Along the curve we saw some moderate losses, with the Q1 25 contract down 0.83% as the increase in Norwegian output helped add some slight pressure, although the market remained worried about several ongoing risk factors. ·UK power prices also were negative, with the DA price falling 13.22% on the forecast strong renewables over the weekend. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was down 0.71% following the gas sentiment, and the forecast of higher than normal temps and strong supply.     ·According to Gassco AS, there are unplanned outages at Gullfaks, Kristin, Oseberg and Troll this morning, with a combined unavailable capacity of 30.4mcm/d, with total exports at 315.7MSm. ·Oil prices are down this morning, wiping out nearly all gains made last week, after data showed China’s inflation rate declined and a lack of clarity on the country’s economic stimulus plan stoked fears about fuel demand in the worlds biggest crude importer.     ·Latest forecasts show temps to be around averages and then rise above from the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks ·UK Gas prices as of Fridays close -  o   Month ahead 99.37p/th (3.39p/KWh) down 1.05% DoD* o   Q1 25 103.51p/th (3.53p/KWh) down 0.83% DoD o   Summer 25 94.77p/th (3.23p/KWh) down 0.78% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Fridays close – o   Month ahead £85.50/MWh (8.55p/KWh) down 1.16% DoD* o   Q1 25 £89.33MWh (8.93p/KWh) down 0.71% DoD o   Summer 25 £75.01MWh (7.50p/KWh) down 1.25% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #norway #russia #oil

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6th December 2024, Daily UK #Energy Market Overview - This morning, the UK energy market faces a challenging landscape with the system opening 9 mcm/day undersupplied. #Gas prices show a slight decline, with NBP Day-Ahead settling at 114.50 p/therm. Meanwhile, UK Power Day-Ahead Base dropped significantly to £77.75/MWh, down by £15.73, reflecting bearish conditions across the board. Colder weather looms as temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal norms from this weekend, increasing heating demand and pressure on energy systems. While #LNG send-outs remain steady, Norwegian exports are ramping up, mitigating some supply concerns despite additional planned maintenance at Sleipner and Gullfaks. UK gas demand surged to 248.77 mcm, driven by robust LDZ requirements. Wind generation is forecast to weaken next week, further tightening gas-for-#power needs. Power prices softened significantly due to strong wind generation earlier in the week and declining European gas storage levels, now at 84%, marking a 3% week-on-week drop. The geopolitical landscape adds complexity, with President Putin's decree easing payment methods for gas exports to counter sanctions against Gazprombank. Market reactions remain muted but watchful as these changes could influence European and UK energy curves further. On the global front, Brent crude is stable at $72.09/bbl, while coal prices fell to $115.54/tonne. Carbon trading saw minor dips, with EUA Dec 24 at €67.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 24 at £36.17/tonne, reflecting subdued industrial activity. Currency movements show a slight strengthening of the pound, with GBP/EUR at 1.2077 and GBP/USD at 1.2758. This offers mild relief for import-heavy energy trades but remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. As colder weather and supply challenges converge, market participants must stay vigilant, especially with LNG arrivals scheduled to bolster supplies. The evolving dynamics of European storage, renewables output, and geopolitical influences will continue shaping the market trajectory.

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As of 8th October 2024, the UK energy markets have started the day with notable fluctuations in both gas and power prices, driven by supply constraints and shifting weather conditions. In the gas market, the NBP Day-Ahead price climbed to 100.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.20 p/therm increase from the previous session. This rise comes amid reduced gas flows from Norway due to ongoing unplanned maintenance at the Asgard field and an extended outage at Troll, impacting total exit flows. Despite this, exports from Norway to the UK via the Langeled pipeline have increased, supporting the UK system, which opened 8 mcm/day long this morning. LNG send-out has decreased to 11 mcm/day, with three new cargoes expected to arrive in the UK over the next three weeks. UK storage injections continue, and pan-European storage remains robust at 94.56%, though minor withdrawals are being observed in some countries. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price rose to £89.09/MWh, up by £12.85/MWh compared to the previous session, while the peak load price surged to £94.14/MWh. This price spike is largely due to expected cooler temperatures from tomorrow, which will drive up heating demand through the middle of the month. Wind output remains strong and is forecasted to stay above seasonal norms for the next two days before stabilising at average levels. Nuclear outages continue to play a significant role, with several key plants still offline or under maintenance, further tightening supply. Looking at other energy commodities, Brent crude oil is trading at $80.93/bbl, a $2.88 increase from the previous settlement, driven by a combination of OPEC+ cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks. Coal prices for ARA CIF Cal Y+1 settled at $127.25/tonne, slightly down by $0.54/tonne. In the carbon market, the EU ETS Dec-24 contract fell to €61.76/tonne, the lowest level in six months, while the UK ETS Dec-24 contract dropped to £35.29/tonne. These declines come amid lower industrial activity and cooler weather across the continent. In currency markets, the GBP/EUR exchange rate dipped slightly to 1.1916, while GBP/USD fell to 1.3083, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. As colder weather sets in and supply challenges persist, the UK energy markets are likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on gas imports, LNG arrivals, and nuclear availability, as these will be key factors influencing prices in the coming days.

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Morning Briefing 10/07/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 28.4GW and due to peak this evening at 30.2GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £42 - £91 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £66.67 in the 1hr and £66.39 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently slightly under target at 8.5GW and due to peak this evening at 10.3GW before falling to 4.2GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 7.2GW at 1pm. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £81.25/MWh with gas providing 17.5%/5.33GW, wind providing 34.4%/10.48GW, solar providing 7.6%/2.33GW and nuclear providing 15.1%/4.60GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 72.98p/th (2.49p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at 74.40/MWh (7.44p/KWh)   Month ahead (Aug 24) ·Aug NBP gas is currently up 0.88% at 73.43p/th (2.51p/KWh). ·Aug TTF gas is currently up 0.53% at €31.51MWh. ·Aug UK Baseload closed at £64.20/MWh (6.42p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were negative again yesterday, with the DA price falling over 3%, due to strong Norwegian imports and high storage levels. Along the curve, prices followed, with the Win24 contract falling 2.41% as worries about Storm Beryl passed, and LNG plants resumed production. ·UK power prices followed the gas sentiment, with the DA price falling 10.92% due to the forecast rise in wind generation for today. Along the curve, the Win24 contract fell 2.22%, with the strong supply and storage picture exerting downward pressure to the market.   ·According to Gassco AS, Visund is still unavailable till 15th July, reducing capacity by 7.4mcm. ·Oil prices are down this morning as the impact from Hurricane Beryl dissipated and inflation data highlighted stubbornly weak consumer demand in top crude importer China.   ·Latest forecasts continue to show temps to dip below norms this week and then rise back and above seasonal norms at the end of the week. ·There currently is 1 LNG cargo due on 11th July. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 72.79p/th (2.48p/KWh) down 2.95% DoD* o   Q4 24 90.61p/th (3.09p/KWh) down 2.47% DoD o   Winter 24 94.07p/th (3.21p/KWh) down 2.41% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £64.85/MWh (6.45p/KWh) down 3.21% DoD* o   Q4 24 £81.36MWh (8.14p/KWh) down 2.39% DoD o   Winter 24 £84.40MWh (8.44p/KWh) down 2.22% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Karl Lucas Martin Chart credit - e*star #energy #power #gas #markets #renewables #wind #lng #energymarkets #norway

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                 Morning Briefing 11/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 34.9GW and due to peak this evening at 40.5GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £75 - £129 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £93.40 in the 1hr and £95.04 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 8.4GW and due to drop down to 6.3GW later today before climbing back to around 8GW for tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 5.0GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £121.40/MWh with gas providing 38.4%/13.80GW, wind providing 26.5%/9.51GW, solar providing 3.1%/1.11GW and nuclear providing 13.2%/4.75GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.99p/th (3.75p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £111.00/MWh (11.10p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently up 2.09% at 109.66p/th (3.74p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently up 2.10% at €43.30MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £90.00/MWh (9.00p/KWh) ·UK gas prices rose on Friday, with the DA price up 2.41% as the news of colder weather forecast and a likely upturn in demand likely drove prices. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 contract up 2.40% as the worries of heightened demand continued to worry the markets in the shorter term. ·UK power prices were also up on Friday, with the DA contract up 3.12% due to the impending lower wind generation and higher demand. Along the curve, the Q1 contract was up 2.63% as the worries in the gas market spread in to the power market as the colder weather forecasts added strength. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 346.0mcm. ·Oil prices are flat this morning as the threat of supply disruptions from a US storm eased and after China’s stimulus plan disappointed investor seeking fuel demand growth in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer.   ·Latest forecasts show some cooler temps being forecast for the current week and potentially below seasonal norms for the rest of the run. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Fridays close -  o   Month ahead 107.41p/th (3.67p/KWh) up 2.96% DoD* o   Q1 25 107.46p/th (3.67p/KWh) up 2.40% DoD o   Summer 25 99.62p/th (3.40p/KWh) up 2.10% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Fridays close – o   Month ahead £89.95/MWh (8.99p/KWh) up 3.93% DoD* o   Q1 25 £92.91MWh (9.29p/KWh) up 2.63% DoD o   Summer 25 £78.00MWh (7.80p/KWh) up 2.41% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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                 Morning Briefing 12/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.5GW and due to peak this evening at 43.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £80 - £211 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.08 in the 1hr and £106.59 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 7.7GW and due to drop down to 4.3GW this evening and stay at similar levels tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £107.40/MWh with gas providing 51.7%/19.25GW, wind providing 23.4%/8.69GW, solar providing 2.9%/1.09GW and nuclear providing 12.8%/4.76GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 110.45p/th (3.77p/KWh) · DA power is currently trading at £110.00/MWh (11.00p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently up 0.40% at 111.00p/th (3.79p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 0.48% at €43.51MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £91.00/MWh (9.10p/KWh) ·UK gas prices rose again yesterday, hitting its 2024 peak, with the DA price up 4.10% mainly supported by the forecast drop in temps for later this year. Along the curve, the Q1 contract was up 2.62% as the colder weather and news of gas storage being lower than anticipated spread through the market.   ·UK power prices also rose yesterday, with the DA price up 14.11% due to the forecast drop in wind generation but rise in demand. Along the curve, the Q1 contract was up 2.10% following the move in gas as the markets worried about near term supply due to the forecast drop in temps in the coming weeks. ·According to reports, the UK is poised to announce one of its most ambitious climate commitments yet, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer expected to confirm a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035 at COP29 Azerbaijan. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 344.0mcm. ·Oil prices are flat this morning as the threat of supply disruptions from a US storm eased and after China’s stimulus plan disappointed investor seeking fuel demand growth in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer.   ·Latest forecasts still show cooler temps being forecast for the last 2 week of November. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Mondays close -  o   Month ahead 110.56p/th (3.77p/KWh) up 2.93% DoD* o   Q1 25 110.27p/th (3.76p/KWh) up 2.62% DoD o   Summer 25 102.57p/th (3.50p/KWh) up 2.96% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Mondays close – o   Month ahead £91.85/MWh (9.19p/KWh) up 2.11% DoD* o   Q1 25 £94.86MWh (9.49p/KWh) up 2.10% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.27MWh (8.03p/KWh) up 2.91% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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Today 21st October 2024 the UK energy markets experienced notable shifts as gas and power prices edged higher today. Day-ahead gas rose to 96.85 p/th, reflecting a 0.6% increase, while day-ahead power climbed 1.5% to 86.50 £/MWh. Mild temperatures and a forecast drop in wind speeds tomorrow are likely contributing to the elevated prices, as the IFA interconnector remains offline, restricting imports. Gas imports from Norway surged today with the completion of Oseberg field maintenance, increasing flows via the Langeled pipeline. However, maintenance at Troll and Kårstø, along with the Gullfaks outage, will continue to limit Norwegian gas availability through early November. This boost in supply was timely, as UK gas demand for power generation is set to increase later in the week. Power generation is currently dominated by wind, supported by storm Ashley, which brought elevated wind speeds. However, gas-fired generation has dropped to less than half of Friday’s output, reflecting the shift toward renewables. Nuclear output remains limited due to the continued unavailability of three reactors, cutting over 1.85 GW from the grid. French and Belgian imports are also low, with the IFA link not expected back online until mid-November. Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions in the Middle East, remain key market drivers. Israel's response to Iran's missile attack on October 1st could introduce further volatility. Crude oil markets have stabilised today after steep declines last week, buoyed by Saudi Aramco’s optimism regarding China’s energy demand and supportive economic measures. Looking forward, while UK energy prices are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, stable fundamentals, including strong renewable output and rising gas supplies are providing balance. The market's direction will depend on evolving weather conditions and further developments in global affairs.

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4th December 2024 UK Daily Energy Market Analysis - Today, UK energy markets reflect a mix of stability and volatility as systems adjust to seasonal demand and supply shifts. Natural gas day-ahead prices rose slightly to 121.15p/therm, supported by steady Norwegian flows of 333mcm/day following the conclusion of some planned maintenance. UK LNG send-out is robust at 68mcm/day, with a new cargo arriving at the Isle of Grain and a total of 12 more scheduled by month-end. The UK gas system opened 4mcm/day oversupplied, aided by mild temperatures and above-average wind forecasts for the week. European gas markets continue to navigate comfortable supply fundamentals, with continental storage levels standing at 84.65%. Forecasts predict Northwest European temperatures will remain 2.5°C above the five-year average until the weekend, reducing short-term heating demand. However, the focus remains on volatility as curve prices saw minor declines, except for the Q1-25 contract, which posted gains. In the power sector, UK day-ahead baseload electricity prices surged to £122.89/MWh, a sharp increase of £9.49 from the previous day. This spike reflects tight supply margins exacerbated by reduced nuclear output and constrained interconnector flows. Yesterday, the National Grid issued a Capacity Market Notice due to narrow margins, but it was canceled later in the session as conditions stabilised. Wind generation is set to improve from today, which could help alleviate some supply-side pressure moving forward. Broader energy commodities showed mixed movement. Brent crude climbed to $73.62/bbl, gaining $1.79 as global market sentiment improved slightly. Coal API2 for 2025 delivery eased to $118.79/tonne, while European carbon allowances (EUAs) remained steady at €68.49/tonne, reflecting consistent withdrawal rates across storage facilities in Europe. Currency movements also provide context for market participants. The GBP/EUR exchange rate slipped slightly to 1.2030, while GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2679, impacting cross-border energy trade costs. With mild weather conditions, improving wind forecasts, and steady LNG arrivals, the UK energy market is cautiously optimistic in managing seasonal demand. However, volatility remains a key theme as stakeholders monitor supply fundamentals, interconnector reliability, and ongoing geopolitical influences on global energy prices. Stay updated for more insights as the situation develops.

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29th November 2024: Today’s UK energy markets reflect mixed signals as we head into the weekend. Gas Day-Ahead (DA) prices settled at 115.35p/therm, a slight decline of 0.35p from the previous day. Power DA Base followed suit, closing at £100.05/MWh, down by £5.14. These shifts align with forecasts of above-average temperatures across the UK and Europe, reducing short-term demand. Warmer weather persists, with UK temperatures anticipated to be 3.4°C above seasonal norms into the weekend. The warmer spell is impacting demand, keeping system balance tight, with the UK opening 10 mcm/day shorter this morning. However, LNG supplies remain robust, bolstered by 12 inbound cargoes, ensuring steady replenishment despite reduced Norwegian flows due to maintenance. Norwegian exit nominations were slightly higher today at 327.5 mcm/day, although the Visund field prepares for more outages in early December. The power market reflected varied influences. Near-curve baseload prices softened, while further-out contracts saw marginal gains as traders weigh the risk of a colder Q1-25. Wind generation was subdued today, compounded by lower nuclear output, which has nudged gas-fired generation higher. On the broader energy front, Brent crude futures saw a modest rise, settling at $73.28/bbl, up $0.45, while carbon markets edged down with EU Allowances (EUAs) trading at €67.63/tonne, a decrease of €0.84. Currency movements remained stable, with £1.2015 against the euro and £1.2687 to the dollar. The outlook for next week hinges on weather and demand signals. While warmer temperatures may limit immediate heating needs, traders remain cautious about geopolitical factors and LNG competition, especially from Asia, which could drive European prices in the months ahead. What are your thoughts on today’s energy landscape? Let's connect in the comments.

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📣 Scotland's solar industry calls for restoration of interest-free loans for residential solar and battery storage. Solar Energy Scotland (SES) is urging the Scottish Government to reinstate interest-free loans for solar and battery systems to accelerate the adoption of low-carbon homes. SES chair Josh King argues that these loans are "unique in their ability to offer quick, tangible energy savings for households." He also emphasised the importance of these loans in supporting the growth of the clean energy economy, stating, "Investment to accelerate renewable energy in residential properties can not only reduce bills, it can create significant growth in the clean energy economy." The letter to First Minister John Swinney highlights the potential benefits of these loans, including reducing energy bills for households and contributing to Scotland's decarbonisation targets. ☀️ To read more visit: https://ow.ly/NCzy50TSyxS #SolarEnergy #Scotland #NetZero

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