Leah Al Halaseh

Positive signs across the Investment Markets ● Goldman Sachs is increasing Credit Lines for Private Equity firms, as deal making grows ● The ADGM is reporting a surge in AUM, and an influx of international managers ● The DIFC saw over 5,000 new jobs created in 2023, with numbers continuing to grow in Q1 (in an area of just 110 acres) ● We're seeing existing clients in the region increase the volume of Institutional Sales & Investment roles, and we're receiving record numbers of inbound investment clients looking to hire ● Sovereigns are reaching new AUM records, and we're seeing several new Sovereign subsidiaries and cross-country Sovereign JVs ● Older news, but the UAE has been removed from the FATF grey list, potentially increasing investor confidence in the region ● Hedge Funds continue to relocate senior traders and PMs to the region

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ESTR Futures - Latest update. ICE setting a new open interest record with their contract at just over 400k lots. Cumulatively across the exchanges now 583k (Euribor 3.9m). From the trenches we saw less volume over the last 2 weeks, suggests Traders default to the deeper liquidity of Euribors during bouts of volatility but the overall growth trend continues in ESTR. #markets #futures #options #ice #eurex

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ECB Rates - soggy CPI numbers this morning putting another bid under ESTR Futures this morning, and pushing market expectations of a 25bp Rate cut on Oct 17th to a new high, 86%. Interestingly - the probability of a 50bp cut has moved up more in the last couple of days to 30% this morning. 

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ESTR Futures Update: A sharp uptick in ICE's ESTR as it marches towards the 500k mark. Eurex crosses 200k. With just under 65k on CME that makes almost 765k O.I cumulatively. Euribor open interest remains a steady ~4m Drop me a message if you're curious on where we are seeing the flows etc. #markets #futures #cme #eurex #ice #trading

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Have you taken our 4 mins trader test? Today I'll be personally going through the scores to see if any of you have got what it takes to be a part of a major Futures desk. This will end by end of play today - Wednesday 14th August at 5pm London time Follow the 1,2,3 and change your life. 1. Take the 4 mins test and get a score and assessment 2. Book me in for a discovery call in the link in the comments 3. Start your journey to create the real currency of value. More TIME. https://lnkd.in/eAgpZcgy

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GCC Equity Markets have been subdued over the past couple of weeks, couple of reasons for that: 1. Q3 earnings being announced. 2. US Presidential elections , major event but that is now out of the way. 3. Large Primary issues in the major markets, UAE and Saudi. This trend looks likely to continue going into the year end. That said, a few interesting pointers for the regional markets. Lulu Retail IPO listing this week, it was a deal that saw massive retail and institutional interest. Participants would look to its listing. Talabat announced its intention to float. Such new and varied businesses regional markets have started to help markets regionally become far more well rounded. This should make for a more compelling case for regional equities. #Markets #GCC #Equity

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Test for USD with job numbers Whilst past performance is not indicative of future results, seasonal trends are still worth considering when looking at the implications on FX rates. As an example, GBP has finished lower versus USD during May in 12 out of the past 15 years, and in general USD has tended to outperform in May the same 15-year period. With Fed Powell suggesting current data does not indicate a rate hike by the Fed, could today’s job numbers contribute towards a lower move on GBPUSD? #gbpusd #fxmarkets

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Bloomberg TV: Post-BOJ FX & Rates Outlook (Sept. 20) As the BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.25%, we hit Bloomberg TV again and had a vivid roundtable chat with Haslinda Amin and Mary Nicola. In our view, the decision was understandable (something might be off if the BOJ moves aggressively!), as don't forget that QE tapering is still proceeding behind the scene. Another 25-bp hike in October remains on the table, and as per the hawkish tone of the BOJ members of late, we do believe that Japan still wants to lift policy rates all the way to 1% before 2026, and they might also want market pricing to get ready for that. Therefore, both 2- and 10-year JGB yields may still have plenty of room to rise and trade above the 1% handle. Re USD/JPY, the downtrend could be intact given the US-Japan policy divergence, but the pace could be more gradual from here -- whether looking at it from a positioning or a valuation perspective (please refer to our prior post: https://lnkd.in/gHzymPM5). Last but not least, we have also written a quick few lines upon the BOJ rate hold. For the Bloomberg Intelligence react written with Chunyu Zhang, CFA, FRM out today, please visit the rates strategy homepage BI RATEN <GO>: "BOJ's Eventual Hike Toward 1995 High Could Send Yields Beyond 1%" (terminal link: https://lnkd.in/gZxr-Bbt). #bloombergintelligence #boj #japan #rates #federalreserve #dollar #asia #kuboraum Bloomberg TV Appearance (Sept. 20)

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When someone launches a fund, even with years of experience under their belt, it’s usually very difficult to raise money. The fund will have to pass through a number of filters: minimum AUM, years of track record, good performance, etc. Then professional analysts with do a thorough due diligence. Then they will present to a professional investment committee. Then the investor will write a check. Depending on the fund and on the investor, this may be anywhere from single millions to, rarely, single billions. The fund manager will then manage this money following its strategy, including risk management rules. The fund manager will not disclose their intentions or even positions to the market. When we as a society elect our government, the overwhelming majority of voters don't have the foggiest about economics or geopolitics. A person with no prior experience may get appointed to a position of, say, the minister of finance. (S)he will be entrusted with a multiple trillion economy. And the first thing (s)he will do is a massive gamble with public finances, which may have major implications for the economy and people's lives. To add insult to injury, (s)he will disclose to the market that (s)he intends to make a big trade, e.g. massively borrow, thus increasing the cost of public borrowing. Who does it wrong, the investment industry or the society? Or both?

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Why are interest rates so important for FX? Rates over macro and risk over rates. It's a term I was told a long time ago by a spot trader and I still find it incredibly valuable. In fact for many FX traders rates are the only thing that matters. I tend to agree but like with everything I have my own experience and take on it. Looking for positive net rates is the default for many Spot FX traders. We are always looking to pick up interest from a higher yielding currency and replace that with a lower yielding one. Rates often move FX before macro does. It is that simple. I'm not talking about direct Carry but it's in the same ball park. Here are my top 6 tips on how to consider rates when trading FX 1. 2 Years DIFFS don't always work so please check the macro for each country and of course the hike cycles - along with CB jawboning. Look at USD positioning too! Don't just take it as a given. In my first 5 years I was in love with the short-end cash. Many a time I bought EUR due to 2yr German/USD going higher only to get something handed to me on plate. Not a good look. 2. There is a reason why USD gets bought against EM. Paying proper negative Carry means you would rather lose a little each day rather than your shirt later on. 3. Real rates are ok but with inflation being largely global there's little upside in the way of insights. I tend to stick with the nominal and the tsy curve. Otherwise how far do you want to go? Someone asked if I looked at Real 10yr DIFFS in G7. I don't because they will not help me with my trading which is the only point. USE what helps YOU and leave anything that doesn't behind. All because GS might use it don't assume it always works. 4. Study the tsy curve like a demon. Learn to LOVE it. The tenors, the patterns the ROC to those patterns and the reactions to data. Take a look an NFP on Friday and how the 10yr reacted. Now AB this to 2 yr, then USD. What are your conclusions? I have mine but I don't want to spoon feed it to you. Do you OWN work. 5. Bond auction failures with yields rallying don't mean USD should go higher - although it has done recently, especially with the 30 yr. Be aware of this and put it into your risk profile. 6. OIS can be wrong too! Not just the FED. With >VOL the Fixed income has less TRUTH. Don't think bonds are always the truth. As an ex-Futures trader I have traded all bonds and like with most assets in increased VOL take what it tells you with a healthy balanced view. At the moment OIS is showing 150bps and the Fed is showing 75bps so please don't assume OIS is always correct. We like to bash The Fed is correct but I think they are correct this time and OIS is overdone. Like I said it's just my take on it. I am wrong too but that's the market. Happy Wednesday.

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This morning's UK inflation release came out under the BoE's 2% target for the first time in many years- following this release Sterling weakened against the US Dollar and dropped below the 1.30 level for the first time in a couple of months. The reason Sterling has weakened is that inflation at these levels shows that UK interest rates are higher than where they need to be currently and the BoE has room to do further cuts down the road, and immediately prices in November cuts and beyond; Interest rate cuts generally devalue a currency and this is what we are seeing with Sterling. Generally, I expect inflation to pick back up over coming months due to rising energy prices again, and I think this current GBP move is short term and that we will see the Pound back above 1.30 again shortly as the UK economy is a lot stronger than is being portrayed.

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Tomorrow is the official launch of Adamis Gold - our deep insights high value list for all curious traders wanting more. For those who missed the FX, Repo and FI Lehman Manuals sign up here and you're get the PDF copies. Tomorrow's edition will include my interview with Futures legend Alan Dickinson who has over a 40 year career on the Chicago and LIFFE floors then went of to be chair at the biggest prop desk in Europe TTG I have limited spaces for this free insights list so sign up if you are: 1. A late career changer wanting to be a trader 2. A current trader wanting to sharpen their edge 3. A non FX or Futures trader want to change asset class 4. A sellside trader wanting to move to buyside 5. A curious trader wanting a Futures desk trading rates, bonds, FX, equities and commodities. A recap of you you will get - completely FREE. What is The Adamis Gold? → A place to receive long form insights from institutional FX traders. → Advanced pre-bookings for our events both online and in person. → FREE trading manuals. → Access to our regular Masterclasses before public release. → Exclusive access to be on the waiting list for One Week with Me - Completely Free (our brand new gift launching in October) → Interviews with trading legends (this starts tomorrow) LIKE, comment and click on the link to register in the comments section.

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Latest View from the desk

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This is crazy Since last October hedge funds have pumped $24 BILLION into the #Turkish #Lira and there seems to be no signs of stopping We are witnessing the largest 'carry trade' position by hedge funds in the past 5 years Why? Turkey's interest rates have soared to 50% from 8.5% since last June after the country went through an economic overhaul Funds are performing a 'carry trade' in which they are borrowing U.S. #dollars and investing in Turkish lira In addition to betting on the currency, foreign investors have scooped up around $12.5B in lira government #bonds since the economic overhaul last June Foreign #investors now hold an astonishing 6.7% of the country’s domestic debt stock, compared with 0.6% before Turkey's May election Outside of buying stocks and options, hedge funds are notorious for investing in and out of foreign currencies to take advantage of other rates We'll keep tracking these movement for you here 🫡

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🎥 Trader Thoughts - what went down in markets We go across markets and see the movers and shakers in equity, rates, commodities and FX Risk snaps back, but can it last? Pepperstone Jodi Cutler #trading #markets

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BlackRock to Get $5 Billion From PIF to Boost Presence in Saudi Arabia - The new multi-asset platform will be managed locally - Asset manager has made an aggressive push in kingdom BlackRock Inc. is set to get as much as $5 billion from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund to invest in the Middle East and build a Riyadh-based investments team, one more sign that the world’s largest asset manager is intensifying efforts to grow in the kingdom. #venturecapital #fundraising #investing Supercap Group Public Investment Fund (PIF)

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The Turkish central bank spent 3.0% of its reserves in one week. After a prolonged period of carry inflow funded reserve builds, the CBRT drew down USD2.8bn of its reserve pile in the week ending 26 July. My current view is that the CBRT has been funding major fx interventions (to maintain a ceiling on the USDTRY at 33.0, now 33.1) with carry inflows - which is a recipe for a particularly aggressive unwind: https://lnkd.in/ewADcvZ2 Today’s reserve print is further evidence of this: yen funded carry began unwinding in early July and this looks to be weighing on TRY inflows. Anecodal evidence (eye balling the USDTRY chart) suggests the CBRT is intervening a lot. The weekly outflow is also the right magnitude for my estimate of how expensive defending the CBRT’s peg should be (around USD7bn a month, topside USD16bn). The stock of external debt liabilities (carry assets) accumulated over the last 12 months is USD27.7bn. This is teeing up for a nasty TRY sell off - 35 could be in sight for USDTRY.

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