John Murton

Yes it's clear, and it's sad. And it has been for far too long. The key question is: Now what? Publishing another report, or making this one interactive? Flying to the 29th COP, staying up all night thinking you'd save the word if 'phasing down' is replaced with 'phasing out' in the final text? Excitement about Article 6.4, the voluntary pledges of non-state actors, another x% growth in green bonds or an extra boost to impact investment? Obviously, really obviously, not. Only a fundamental shift in the approach to address this tragedy bears any chance of success. This must entail a systemic shift from voluntary to mandatory, and from unanimous to majority at UNFCCC. For the willing nations it must include a meaningful price on all emission, in all sectors, adjustment at the border, and sanctions if measures aren't put in place by others. And in addition to all that, given there ain't a minute left to spare, there must be bans on all new fossil investments. To anyone who may think this sounds 'radical', 'extreme', or 'unrealistic'...think again. At this stage it's non-action that's 'radical', the weather that is 'extreme', and the real world we are living a bloody frightening prequel to the Ministry for the Future! 😓

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Distribution of Latest Credit Prices by Registry for projects Renoster has rated. These prices are generated through our partnership with AlliedOffsets and are featured in our upcoming whitepaper, 'Investigating Price vs Quality within NBS Carbon Markets.' Verra Both reviewed and reviewable projects under Verra show the broadest distribution of credit prices ($1 to $40), with reviewed projects having a slightly higher median ($9 vs $7.50) and mean price ($12 vs $11). Outliers indicate occasional high-value credits, but most prices are clearly clustered towards the lower end, reflecting moderate pricing overall. Verra is clearly the one with the widest variability in market valuation, and the only registry with projects fetching above the $33/credit mark. Climate Action Reserve Unreviewed projects have a wider distribution of credit prices ($1 to $33) compared to reviewed projects. Reviewed projects have a median price of $18 and a mean price of $14.69, while reviewable projects have a median price of $8 and a mean price of $10.47. Outliers indicate occasional high-value credits. It seems that for projects we have rated, the median price ($18) is a lot higher than reviewable projects ($8). ACR at Winrock International Both reviewed and reviewable projects under ACR show a broad distribution of credit prices ($2 to $27). Reviewed projects have a median price of $11 and a mean price of $13.19, while reviewable projects have a median price of $11 and a mean price of $11.58. Outliers indicate occasional high-value credits, but most prices are clustered around the median, reflecting moderate to high pricing overall. Gold Standard Both reviewed and reviewable projects under GS show a consistent distribution of credit prices ($15 to $29), with identical median ($21) and mean prices ($21.35). Outliers indicate occasional deviations, but most prices are closely clustered around the median, reflecting stable pricing. This, coupled with the fact that Gold Standard had the highest median price of all registries, aligns closely with what I make of the overall market perception of a stable registry. EcoRegistry Both reviewed and reviewable projects under ER show a relatively narrow distribution of credit prices ($2 to $17). Reviewable and reviewed projects have a similar median & mean, clustered around $5-6. It's worth noting that ER list of projects is almost entirely comprised of Avoided Deforestation, so the pricing is likely indicative of market perceptions of this project type rather than ER's own performance as a registry. Thanks to Anton Root, Antonia Drummond and the AlliedOffsets team for their collaboration on this project. Comment below if this is useful, and if you'd like to see more research like this in the NBS space. #nature #pricefornature #carbonmarkets #carbon #analytics Mark Trexler Anna Lerner Nesbitt Margaret Morales Racheal Notto Jeremy Epstein Farouq Ghandour Eilís O’Keefe

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https://lnkd.in/gBgGmrgw In July we published a report on the need for more climate adaptation and resilience financing in the bond market. This report from the Asian Development Bank highlights the growing acuteness of the adaptation financing gap. Report here --> https://lnkd.in/gCV-fKad From the FT: "The bank said that under a high-emissions scenario, climate change could reduce the region’s GDP by about 17 per cent by 2070, reflecting the economic damage wrought by sea-level rises, especially in lower-income and fragile economies and those with large coastal populations."

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In a few weeks, the COP29 will open its doors at a tense and dangerous moment in our global politics, in the midst of war and tensions on three continents, and in the wake of a very disputed (and potentially critical) US election. The stakes are high. Last week, the UN Environment Programme warned that current climate policies fall way short of what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, and today the World Meteorological Organization announced that greenhouse gas emissions increased yet again last year to new highs. Despite strong advances in renewables and other low-carbon technologies, the pace of the energy transition is still too slow, a message that was repeated again by the International Energy Agency (IEA). In this context, what can be done and what should we expect from the upcoming global climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, from on 11-22 November? Many observers seem to have already given up on seeing any meaningful progress coming out of Azerbaijan, a petro-state with a poor human rights record, and seemingly little incentives to move the world out of fossil fuels. But the next climate conference must be a launchpad for 2025, when nations have to publish new and more ambitious national climate goals. One path forward is on climate finance, which will be one of the main topics discussed at the COP29. Here's the conclusion of a smart curtain raiser on the climate diplomacy we are likely to witness in coming weeks, and which I linked below: "[...] All is not lost. The outlines of a finance deal are on the table. The Azerbaijan Presidency has appointed a ministerial pair to shepherd political decision making. A bold diplomatic effort from the COP29 hosts over the two weeks of the conference could deliver a finance goal that can unlock confidence for dramatically greater climate action." "A deal will require the EU and UK to step up as globally responsible leaders willing to put a significant sum of money on the table. It will depend on small islands continuing to use their moral leverage to outweigh the trouble makers who exploit divisions over finance to stall global action on fossil fuel phase out. It will depend on an openness from the African Group of Negotiators to drive for an ambitious compromise deal." All eyes will be on Baku soon. Let's hope COP29 confounds its critics and delivers meaningful results on climate finance. *** For more reading: 🚨 UN Emissions Gap report: https://lnkd.in/eC7sACuJ 🌎 World Meteorological Organisation: https://lnkd.in/e69zuSKb 🔋 International Energy Agency: https://lnkd.in/erGMr7BG

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Agree! US must support critical mineral projects in risky nations, White House adviser says. White House senior adviser for energy and investment, Amos Hochstein: "We can all live in the capitals and cities around the world and say 'I don't want to do business there.' BUT what you are really saying is we're NOT going to have an energy transition" May 6 (Reuters) - The United States and its allies must encourage mining projects in countries where Western corporations are reticent to do business to guarantee a reliable and sustainable global supply of the critical minerals needed to combat climate change, a senior White House official said on Monday. Mineral resources in nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are essential to meeting ENORMOUS global demand for clean energy components and power infrastructure to support the growth of artificial intelligence. Follow us: https://lnkd.in/djeMXwFn

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This is an interesting report but I think we should be careful what we read into it. The definition of long term alignment to 1.5C is simply that a company has set a 2050 net zero target. But it remains unclear exactly what it means for a company to be 1.5C aligned in a world that isn’t given the systemic nature of how carbon is woven into our society. Moreover, as we have seen recently, aspirational climate targets tend to get watered down the minute they come into conflict with profitability. Moreover, actions reflecting real intent are notable by their absence: - only 5% of companies have quantified an emissions reduction strategy - 2% have clarified the role of offsets - 2% show evidence of phase out of carbon intensive assets - 1% show alignment of CAPEX and decarbonisation goals Given the foundational importance of government policy it’s eye opening that only 3% of companies are demonstrating alignment between net zero goals and policy positions or trade association membership. It must be a good thing that management quality measures are improving, meaning that climate change is at least moving up the board agenda. But you’d have to have been living under a rock for it not to do so. But overall I don’t think this shows much. The reality is that companies in the sectors analysed can only get to net zero 2050 if they are rescued by unpredictable technology advances or directed by robust government policy.

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The COP29 climate summit here in Baku is nearly midway through its first week. Negotiators still have some big divides to bridge on the “new collective quantified goal” for climate finance that is meant to be agreed here. COP29 has arrived at a remarkably swift agreement, however, on a different subject: new guidelines for international carbon trading under a UN mechanism. The conference’s leaders have cheered this as an early win, despite complaints from some non-profit groups about a breach of process. But there's still a huge amount of work to do before the new mechanism is even close to starting operation. Any celebrations in the carbon credit sector would be very premature. Today's FT Moral Money newsletter: https://lnkd.in/eD-Rk_n5

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Between 28-30 April 2024, the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment ministers met in Turin (current presidency sits with Italy). They adopted a 'Joint Declaration' that gives a precise follow-up to the goals agreed at COP 28. It sends a clear message to others, particularly the major economies, on the level of commitment that is needed to adequately address the challenge of climate change. so what are top message from their meet up ? Click below to read. #G7 #Climatechange #JustTransition #NDC #onepointfive

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Almost everyone now accepts there's a link between climate change and conflict. Now we all need to understand that our RESPONSE to climate change (through the vital energy transition) can also lead to conflict. Some countries (e.g. Iraq) are not only on the front-line of climate change itself, with a clear impact on tension and conflict. But because their economies are so totally dependent on fossil fuels, it means that they also face a new threat of destabilisation. With a big drop in fossil fuel revenues, they will find it far harder to pay for the basic services and security on which their populations defend. We need to wake up to this 'secondary' effect of climate on peace. Yesterday, the Financial Times, carried my short opinion piece on this.

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Just returned from a 10-day trip to Shanghai, meeting with our partners. It's incredible to witness how much the country has grown and continues to lead the way. While we're still offering financial subsidies for renewable energy adoption, China already has the highest number of nuclear reactors. By the time we catch up with solar and wind—and start considering nuclear—they’ll likely be onto the next breakthrough. Sharing a moment from my morning run in Shanghai this week. #Innovation #Sustainability #GlobalPerspective

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Day 3 #COP29. Yesterday, Secretary General of the ICC, John Denton, shared data from Oxera Consulting LLP that climate-related extreme weather events have already created real economic losses of c. $2 trillion over the past decade. Now that’s a call to accelerate action! I attended an event to review progress against the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, signed by 160 countries. One of the key points calls for government support funds to promote activities which “increase incomes, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, bolster resilience, productivity, livelihoods, nutrition, water efficiency and human, animal and ecosystem health while reducing food loss and waste, and ecosystem loss and degradation.” Many of the 7 countries reporting progress also referred to the discussion about financing. Mette Frederiksen, prime minister of Denmark, described how the Danish Government had brought together their national stakeholders for dialogue, acknowledging different interests make it hard to agree on everything. This summer the Danish Government announced there would be a livestock carbon emission tax from 2030 but also with subsidies available already. She spoke of the need to ensure no loss of jobs, affordable food, not losing control of emissions and the need to “build bridges”. Can this be done? I hope so. I noticed that reducing food loss and waste (8-10% of global emissions including a lot of methane) didn’t get much of a mention. Today WRAP will reveal the number of country plans which actually include it! I am at the Agri-Food Systems Summit on Friday hosted by Climate Action Innovation Zone, Baku Marriott. Please come with your experience and join our roundtable at Future Food System Hackathon to share or co-create solutions preventing food loss and waste. Dr Richard Swannell FRSA and Keith James are here with partners like ReFED FareShare and The Global FoodBanking Network to share best practice between countries. WRAP has been tackling organic waste for over twenty years. Last week WRAP, EY-Parthenon and IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution) published a UK food sector Net Zero Transition Plan - data-driven and ready for implementation. Not every business will agree with all of it, but every business can get behind at least one of the game-changing programmes to deliver significant impact. The plan models a 25% GHG reduction from 2021 to 2030, with new cost estimates at the national level. It emphasises the need for increased green financial incentives for UK farmers and to drive climate-positive practices in imported food supply chains. Which brings us back to the conversation here in Baku. The step up required is both in the action plans and the financing of those plans. As Andrea Porro asked yesterday “if food and agriculture is 30% of global GHGs, why is only 3% of financing targeted at farmers?” Catherine David Harriet Lamb https://lnkd.in/ewBBgRaV

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Food waste contributes 8-10% of total greenhouse gas emissions (five times more than aviation) and yet features in few NDCs, the UN lingo for country targets and plans. A new WRAP survey of NDCs shows that only 12% of countries so far have plans for food loss and waste reduction in them. This is therefore a massive opportunity to increase the impact of the countries yet to include food loss and waste in their plans. Countries are missing a golden opportunity to tackle greenhouse gas emissions and increase security of food supplies to their citizens by preventing food loss and waste. There are many successful examples of how to do this from around the world that are ready to be applied, which the team at WRAP can share and advise on. And there’s still time for countries to add in a commitment, before the deadline for this round of NDCs closes in February… #foodwaste #COP29 https://lnkd.in/eqRR7-Sp

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It is part festival of talk, and part media show.  Conferences of Partners (COPs) have led to international agreements that set standards for carbon emissions, renewable energy adoption, and climate adaptation strategies.  While not legally binding, these agreements create a framework for countries to follow and build upon.  COP events attract media coverage and public attention, raising awareness about climate issues and galvanising public support for climate action.  This pressures governments and corporations to take meaningful steps. COPs provide a platform for countries to share knowledge, technology, and resources.  This collaboration leads to innovative solutions and joint efforts in combating climate change.  COPs establish reporting mechanisms that require countries to regularly update their progress on climate goals.  This transparency encourages accountability and allows for tracking global progress. 28th Conference of Partners (COP28) and similar conferences have led to the establishment of funds, such as the Loss and Damage Fund, which supports vulnerable countries in coping with climate impacts.  Many businesses and industries make climate commitments during COPs, aligning with global standards and contributing to the overall effort to reduce emissions.  The Paris Agreement set ambitious targets for limiting global temperature rise and has driven countries to enhance their climate policies. The UAE Consensus at COP28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity, and doubling energy efficiency improvements before 2030.  There has been some progress in mitigating global warming, but it is not enough to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement.  The cost of solar and wind energy has decreased significantly since 2010, making renewable energy more accessible.  This has led to increased deployment of renewable energy sources worldwide. Policies and regulations have enhanced energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption in various sectors.  Some countries have made substantial progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  The European Union has committed to reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.  Despite these efforts, global CO2 emissions reached 36.8 billion metric tons in 2023, an increase of 1.5% from the previous year.  This indicates that emissions are still rising.  Human-induced global warming has already reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, leading to unprecedented changes in the Earth’s climate.  To limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions need to peak before 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030.  The frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, have increased due to rising global temperatures. (Continued) Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant President, Red Sycamore Global

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🌏Reflections from COP29 with BFM 89.9 - The Business Station This morning, I shared my thoughts about the progress of #COP29 and the critical question on everyone’s minds: Is the progress on climate finance and carbon markets a breakthrough or a betrayal? At COP29, a few key highlights include i) the finalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement which sets out the rules for for international carbon markets ii) Memorandum of Collaboration (MoC) exchange among ASEAN Carbon Market Associations, a historic moment signaling deeper regional collaboration among Malaysia Carbon Market Association ASEAN Alliance on Carbon Markets Indonesia Carbon Trade Association Singapore Sustainable Finance Association (SSFA) and Thailand Carbon Markets Club This milestone sets the foundation for a more interoperable, transparent, and high-integrity carbon market ecosystem in ASEAN. Very inspiring to see the region come together to accelerate action toward achieving our collective net-zero ambitions. On the airwaves, I explored the delicate balance between optimism and skepticism. Are carbon markets and climate finance scaling fast enough to close the funding gap for climate action? Are they empowering global South nations or perpetuating inequalities? These are tough questions that demand bold and pragmatic answers. ASEAN has an opportunity to lead by example, demonstrating how regional collaboration can unlock climate solutions tailored to our unique challenges and strengths. Let’s keep the momentum going—because a just, equitable, and impactful transition isn’t just necessary; it’s non-negotiable. 💬 What are your thoughts on the evolving role of carbon markets in driving climate action? Link: https://lnkd.in/gQRme5Mg #COP29 #ClimateFinance #CarbonMarkets #ASEANCollaboration #NetZero

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Once again, the narrow picture is painted using data, not false news, but a predictably limited perspective. China is building a system based on energy diversity to create a secure future for its people and its economy. With the closure of the least safe and least efficient mines, coal production has been rationalised to create a more lean and effective coal value chain. The same can be said of steel and power. China can see a better future with advanced coal technology, become more efficient, and obtain more energy and value from less coal with less waste. Graphs on electricity shares don't tell the full story.

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China has introduced new restrictions on rare earth elements...but there's more. Starting October 1, the government will be in charge of all rare earth production and put a traceability system in place. But they are also imposing a ban on 1) the technology to process rare earths and 2) technology to make permanent magnets, which are important for pretty much all electronics. Timing makes this seem more targeted towards recently announced EU trade restrictions, but I can't help but notice they enter into effect about 35 days before the U.S. election. #China #InternationalTrade #CriticalMinerals

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Not very clear what had sparked the 'optimism' around the outcome of #COP29 It's the pre-final official end date and here's where it stands 1. The draft text of #NCQG has all possible options with still little hope on the 'desirable' outcome. 2. The geopolitics around the results of #US elections, and the push of #DonaldTrump to European nations for increasing their defence spending. This is undoubtedly something not to be ignored and will bear on the commitments to be made/ambitions to be raised. 3. The discussions around the evolving economic status of 'developing countries' and the shared contribution. While we wait and watch, eyes are already turning towards #Brazil #cop29azerbaijan

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Did you know that? I didn't until now. Scotland is always surprising me! An estimated 7.64 mega tonnes of carbon is sequestered annually in the top 10 cm of Scotland’s marine sediments, adding to an estimated 2,622 megatons of carbon that is currently stored within the sediments. Scottish fjords are considered as blue carbon 'hotspots', burying an estimated 84,000 tonnes of organic carbon annually.

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