Iryna Podoliak 🇺🇦

We are delighted to announce that PTTEP has agreed to acquire a 34% interest in E&E Algeria Touat B.V. from ENGIE Find out more: https://lnkd.in/dvAbBDfk Houlihan Lokey

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Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severing the link between gas and power prices was a core UK policy objective. The 2022 crisis focussed minds, but the government ruled out alternatives to marginal pricing. Now, rampant speculation is injecting fresh volatility into European gas trading hubs. OVERVIEW: 🔹Amid intense debate over locational power pricing in the GB market, the rationale for linking electricity prices to the most expensive marginal generation unit has gone largely unscrutinised 🔹Marginal pricing is becoming problematic with the rise of renewables, as the OPEX-based pricing regime fails to remunerate for wind and solar power capex without marginal gas generation 🔹Hedge fund speculation is driving volatility in European gas markets, which is being passed through to power prices via marginal pricing 🔹A lack of credible alternatives to marginal pricing points to an increasingly volatile transition towards full grid decarbonisation Is the British electricity market condemned to a future of endless gas-induced price spikes? 👇 Find the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/e6ZKT55b Written by Seb Kennedy and published on EklipX Research #power #grid #uk #gas #ttf #economy #energy #hedgefunds

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Thank you to Dalibor Dobric and Montel for reporting on the ICIS analysis of this summer's power price spikes in South-eastern Europe. Given our finding of progressively tightening electricity markets reserve margins in the region, the question of price spikes is becoming very relevant over the winter months. We expect power systems in Europe to be tested in the coming months by weather events like cold snaps (especially combined with low solar/wind conditions) simultaneously increasing electricity demand and reducing supply over wide parts of the region. https://lnkd.in/ezFV9awC

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Interview on Bloomberg with Jennifer Zabasajja and Paul Allen yesterday, while Joumanna Bercetche was taking pictures of the Flame Towers in Baku on the side of Cop29: 📈 Market Analysis: Trump's Return and the Yield-Valuation Paradox The market's recent reaction to political developments reveals a critical disconnect between fundamentals and sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.4%, approaching a four-month high, creating significant pressure on equity valuations. As the 10-year rate heads to 5%, equity risk premium will become negative. Market Dynamics The S&P 500's current valuation metrics are facing unprecedented challenges. With Treasury yields at these levels, the traditional equity risk premium model is flashing warning signals. October's market performance showed this strain, with the Dow falling 1.34% and the S&P 500 declining 0.99%. Political Uncertainty Trump's controversial cabinet nominations have introduced new market volatility: The Attorney General nominee faces serious investigations The DNI pick lacks traditional intelligence experience Key economic positions remain uncertain Economic Implications The market appears to be underpricing several critical risks: Proposed universal tariffs could reduce S&P 500 profits Bond yields are signaling inflation concerns The yield curve dynamics suggest growing economic uncertainty Forward Outlook The convergence of rising yields, political uncertainty, and persistent inflation presents a complex challenge for market valuations heading into 2025. The market's current optimism may be misplaced, as fundamental economic indicators suggest increased volatility ahead We remain bullish on gold and buying the dip. Thank you Shruthi Rajendran for having me again, always a pleasure.

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I will be attending the Sustainable Investment Forum Europe 2024 in Paris on May 2nd. Let's meet up and discuss how we can make the world a better place 🌍🧹 https://j1l.in/8kcduW #SustainableInvesting #ImpactInvestment #SustainableFuture

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Timera highlights the growth of negative price electricity hours in Germany & the evolving duck curve there. The “so what”? There’s a clear opportunity for investment returns above cost of capital in energy storage, grid mgt/forecasting solutions, & demand side response tech. As the intermittent share of generation grows across the European power market, watch this unfold in more and more markets. #climateinvesting #energytransition #energystorage https://lnkd.in/e9DdmE-P

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In the weeks running up to COP29 Azerbaijan, we are hearing strong support for the The World Bank to change policies to enable support for #nuclear energy. Last week Rafael Mariano Grossi, DG of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), announced at last week's International SMRs Conference that #IAEA has begun training World Bank staff on nuclear topics. Grossi and many IAEA Member State been advocating for #WorldBank policies on nuclear for several years. Similarly the communiqué issued out of the ‘Roadmaps to New Nuclear’ conference organized by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) in September, also urged multilateral banks to unlock nuclear financing. We are often asked is "If The World Bank changes its policy on nuclear, is IBNI still necessary?" Short answer is "absolutely, YES". Whereas a change in World Bank policies is strongly encouraged and would be most helpful, this step alone will not be sufficient to achieve global policy objectives such as 3x nuclear scaling by 2050. Establishment of #IBNI (or an 'IBNI-like' institution) standing alongside the World Bank is still necessary. Let's examine this topic further below. ⚛️ "Why multilateral nuclear finance in the first place?" COP28 UAE >3x nuclear objective requires mobilization of more than US$ 5 trillion by 2050. Multilateral support (+ other measures) is necessary to catalyse the participation from the global financial markets and allocate risks and benefits. ⚛️ "Why is a policy-reformed World Bank still insufficient to facilitate 3x nuclear by 2050?" ✔️ What is necessary for the Bank to do (soon)?: 1) Remove nuclear from the World Bank's 'Sin Bin' list that serves as a global benchmark for many other financial institutions and investors; and 2) include nuclear as a low carbon energy option in long-term energy, industrial and economic planning in recipient countries. ⚠️ Why would a policy-reformed Bank still be insufficient?: 1) Bank shareholder misalignment on nuclear and geopolitical policies; 2) lack of mission/mandate to finance nuclear in middle- through advanced economy countries; 3) misaligned project approval frameworks addressing competitive issues amongst shareholder countries; 4) lack of deep nuclear sector expertise, standards and criteria; and 5) insufficient capitalisation for nuclear-specific risks Could the ALL above deficiencies of the World Bank be overcome anytime soon? Extremely unlikely! Could World Bank establish a new 'Nuclear Trust Fund'? Possibly, but still unlikely to overcome all hurdles. Solution: Establishing IBNI from ground-up overcomes all impediments! Next Step: Organise an IBNI-sponsored Global Summit on Multilateral Nuclear Finance 2025 to facilitate multinational and multi-stakeholder dialogue. Milton Caplan David Stearns Carlos Leipner-Gomes Milko Kovachev Philippe Costes Elina Teplinsky George Borovas Todd Moss DJ Nordquist Sama Bilbao y Leon Justin Friedman Jack McCaslin Jonathan Bar

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AGM season brings with it not just the right to vote, but also the opportunity to use other ownership rights such as pre-declarations, filing resolutions and asking AGM questions. The Railpen team has been hard at work ensuring we make the most of the season. This includes today's pre-declaration of intent to vote in favour of a shareholder resolution calling on Equinor to align its capital expenditure - which is really where the rubber hits the road - with its commitment to the goals of the Paris Agreement #climatechange #stewardship #AGMseason

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Really pleased with the announcement today of VH Global Sustainable Investment Opportunities plc's #GSEO half year 2024 #results, specifically reflecting on the strong underlying performance of the #portfolio. This morning, on our analyst call, I articulated our views on the opportunities for #GSEO in light of increased #demand for electrons caused by the disruptive effect of generative #AI technology on the #energy landscape #globally. Something not fully articulated in recent years by our peers, for whom the role of #renewable #electrons was cast in predominantly #decarbonising our #homes, #industry and #transportation. At Victory Hill Capital Partners LLP we pride ourselves on understanding the whole picture, across different #technologies, #energymarkets and #geographies. Only then can we fully understand how we can enable our #investors to participate in differentiated returns and make a positive #sustainable #impact. #sustainableinvesting #esg #energytransition

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Last week, European #gas #markets heavily dropped on Thursday, following an article highlighting a deal between Ukraine and Azerbaijan over transit gas. Even though it was dismissed, markets did not fully recover, as #TTF CAL25 still trading 2 €/MWh below its level of Thursday's morning. Why? is it the possibility of a deal which opens different price scenarios for the upcoming winter? If you want to know more on #energy #markets, please connect to #EnergyScan, our digital platform to follow markets developed at ENGIE Global Energy Management & Sales

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#energytransition is driving demand for a modernized #powergrid. Yet current #infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the rapid growth of #renewable #energysources, resulting in significant delays and rising costs. Addressing these challenges requires both optimizing existing #grids and building new connections. Streamlined permitting, #innovativetechnologies, and a coordinated approach are essential to meet the changing landscape of energy generation and consumption.

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To properly succeed with the global energy transition, we must face certain uncomfortable realities Although we may have idealistic goals of a more sustainable future with greener energy, there are still many roadblocks and hurdles that must be overcome to make them a reality. In particular, it is physical challenges that are providing a hindrance, such as improving supply chains, fine tuning mobility , local currency financing and meeting the demand for raw materials. To me, this all highlights how we must unite and collaborate to establish a transparent and honest framework for the global energy transition. We discussed this at #AFIS last year but have made little progress. We need more stringent deadlines and to properly incentivise delivery. #Energy #CleanEnergy #Sustainability

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Beware of infrastructure investments by institutional investors relabeling them as #impactinvestments There are much more effective financing techniques for utilities and other essential taxpayer shared services in society than private equity. True #impactinvestments improve quality of life and add wealth to underserved communities and people. #sharedvalues

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Another listed #renewableenergy developer is taken private with a 43% bid premium from EQT Infrastructure. The $1.5bln friendly cash deal values the immediate pipeline to 2028 at close to expected sales/exit value value, but the longer term pipeline is largely free upside from here. As an asset light business model (covering development, M&A, PPAs, EPC and O&M) with deep sector expertise delivering renewable projects in multiple geographies with an average ROCE of 25% is impressive. Although there is a wide spread of expected OX2 developer IRR's in the region of 50% to 500% with a corresponding money multiple of 2x to 10x, the company has never failed to sell a project post launch. Its also striking that the bulk of project development is in the Nordics where merchant power remains the lowest in the developed world. Concerns about a lack of financial buyers for ready-to-build #wind and #solar has not deterred private equity where hurdle rates to financial close are greater than the demands of public market investors. The failure of public markets to net present value for expected future returns is brought back to light once more. #publicmarkets #liquidity #mispricing

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The June Munich #BNEFSummit proves that Bloomberg New Energy Finance  #BNEF has more than a finger on the pulse of #EnergyTransition – business is getting ready for a zero carbon world or better.  #LowCarbonCement and Steel, and Negative Carbon building materials are marketable. There may be premium, but often not: the Rs, or when biomass takes over.  Many #startups from the #Holcim #Maqer incubator contribute.  Peat, biochar, ashes, filters – #CarbonCapture allows a new alliance with Mother Earth, to return to her the CO2 that we now let escape!        What slows this down?  Insufficient regulatory frameworks – terminology, norms and standards –  and insufficient commitment from the demand side, whether industry or end-user.   Politics, journalism, education – all have responsibility.  All talk, but do you act?       #StartHere       Matthieu Horgnies Marjorie CHANTIN David Friedman Denise Shelley Newnham Ioanna Liouka Julia Attwood

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German consumers utilising dynamic #electricity pricing reaped the benefits of high #renewables penetration with retail tariffs of only €6.2c/kWh over the course of April. In a renewables dominant #grid the ability to afford these rates will stimulate increased demand for #heatpumps, #heatstores and #ev adoption in step with a wider #electrification of the energy system.

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Nice to see Joe Easton’s positive article focusing on London’s successes, far too often the commentary of London as a financial hub is overly negative. The stats show that the City remains an unrivalled centre, one which has the potential to attract significantly more activity and capital for the benefit of the whole of the UK. London Still Europe’s Share Sale Capital Even With Few IPOs - Share sales of $11.3 billion dwarf other European cities - UK remains in top spot even after rate hikes spurred downturn https://lnkd.in/eRtShiNM

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🌍 The upward trend in European energy prices is running out of steam 🎙️ In this new EnergyScan weekly podcast episode, I delve into the key drivers behind the recent downturn in wholesale gas and power prices in Europe. 📉 TTF gas and German baseload power month-ahead prices have dropped nearly 10% since early December. Some contributing factors include: -Milder weather forecasts -Steady gas supply from Norway & LNG import terminals -Emerging signs of weakening LNG demand outside Europe -President Putin's decree on Gazprombank -Concerns over a long squeeze 🎧 Listen to the episode here ➡️ English version: https://lnkd.in/g8u_E65s ➡️ French version: https://lnkd.in/gR48dwdY 🔍 Discover more about our market intelligence service at ENGIE Global Energy Management & Sales. Explore EnergyScan: https://lnkd.in/gCEbXx5 #gas #electricity #energy #podcast

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