Henry Taylor

On any normal day, I like economic releases. But today gave me - and the UK economy - a reason to smile. And it's even sunny! ☀️ 🎉This is exciting news for the UK economy as inflation reaches the Bank of England's 2% target in May, the first time since July 2021. 📉 ⚖️ Of course, the headline figure had to be put into perspective, with persistent price pressures in services leading markets to reconsider the likelihood of rate cuts. Despite the dip in headline inflation, core inflation and service costs remain high, suggesting ongoing economic challenges. 🔍 Key Points: 📊 May inflation: 2%, down from April’s 2.3% 🏷️ Services inflation: 5.7%, above forecast 📉 Core inflation: 3.5% 🔮 Future outlook: Potential rebound in inflation later this year #Economy #Inflation #Finance #UKEconomy #BankOfEngland #FinancialServices

14

If the proverbial Martian were to land in the UK today and was told that there would be a general election on 4 July in which the Conservatives would be fighting to cling on to power s/he could be forgiven for looking at the party's policies and thinking that the main opposition party was Reform UK, not Labour. First and foremost, by calling an early election, Rishi Sunak has made it all but impossible for Reform to find credible candidates to fulfil its promise to contest every constituency, ie including seats currently held by the Tories which it did not contest in 2019 thereby helping Boris Johnson to an 80-seat majority. Second, bringing back national service (which, as recently as a week ago, a defence minister said was not even being considered and Mr Sunak's own spokesperson dismissed in January) is clearly aimed reining in potential defectors to Reform. Third, the government's intense focus on immigration. There is some sense in this in that Reform is sitting at 11 percent in opinion polls right now and most of those who say they will vote for it voted Tory in 2019. So even if its support is halved come polling day it is likely to help both Labour and the LibDems to win more seats than they would if Reform did not exist. Nevertheless, it does underline the extent to which the Tory campaign is far more about damage limitation than it is about giving itself any chance of winning. Thus, and unsurprisingly, Ms Allan was kicked out of the party minutes after her announcement.

2

Tax on carried interest, plans to lean into tech to improve NHS and support the green energy transition and funding for key industries — these are all things mentioned in the Labour Party manifesto. The 133-page document, released earlier today, is seen by many as a blueprint for the next UK government — with Labour far, far ahead of the Conservative Party in the polls. Like the Conservative manifesto, however, it's a little vague on how it will specifically support the tech sector. But it does do something that the Conservative’s manifesto doesn’t: it mentions the word ‘startup’ — albeit only once. Here are the key bits that could impact UK tech folk. https://lnkd.in/e9epEjRD

6

The UK Conservative Party’s plans to reduce the number of visas available to migrants each year — should it win the upcoming general election — could damage UK startups’ growth ambitions, say lobby groups, investors and founders. Late last night, the party, which has been in power for 14 years, laid out plans to reduce net migration to the UK if it’s re-elected on July 4. While the Conservatives have not set out precise figures for the cap on visas, the policy has drawn criticism from the UK startup sector, with some concerned that talent shortages could worsen, hamstringing tech companies’ hiring plans. What do you think? Is a migration cap going to harm UK tech? https://lnkd.in/eJxKHxaQ

12

Essential viewing for UK followers 🚨 - Channel 4's Dispatches last night was an interesting experiment seeing how generative AI could influence voting choices, using a group of 24 undecided voters. Deepfakes are nothing new and I've been surprised that we've not seen anything significant in the current campaign thus far, but the lessons are there for all: ✅ For PRs: Monitor constantly, verify and clarify as soon as a deepfake appears. These things go viral quickly... ✅ For government: Educate citizens on how to spot deepfakes and to double check with a reputable news source ✅ For individuals: Stick to verified and trusted news sources Did you watch Dispatches? What did you think? On the election, PLEASE USE YOUR VOTE! I've already voted by post, but encourage your friends and colleagues to get out there and exercise their democratic right/duty. 🗳 #ArtificialIntelligence #AI Link to the show here 👉🏼 https://lnkd.in/e6hBg2h7

3

A significant new report released today on the skills shortage impacting the manufacturing sector. Based on a recent survey of manufacturers, with qualitative insights gained by The Manufacturer to add additional context, this report is a deep dive into what is, perhaps, the biggest challenge hindering manufacturing organisations today 👇 #UKmfg #shoutaboutukmfg Joe Bush Molly Cooper Tom St John

5

Watch this space: H2O Asset Management revealed in its annual report for 2020 that it was under investigation from the FCA. We're now in 2024 and it looks like British market regulators are about to conclude their case. There's talk of a pot of money to compensate investors - who would be offered to take a deal - and of the FCA considering whether a fine would be appropriate. https://lnkd.in/d7uxKDyi

3

There were 87,763 London homes classified as empty for council tax purposes in October 2013, which was the last data published. Nearly half of London's empty homes in the most recent data (36,210) are long-term empty, meaning empty for six months or longer. That's nearly double the number of long-term empty properties in 2016 (19,845). There are nearly 3,000 empty properties in Southwark alone – three times more than there were in 2016. This isn't just a London problem. In England, there were 699,126 empty properties in October 2023 (it was 589,726 in 2016), of which 261,474 were long-term empty (200,145 in 2016). Those trends are all going in the wrong direction. Not disagreeing with Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. Build houses, for sure. But you also have to fill houses. #housingcrisis #socialhousing #propertyprices

27

11 Comments

Is it any wonder trust in our politicians is at a 40-year low? - - - Last month, an IPSOS poll found that just 9% of voters thought that politicians generally told the truth. Anger over Partygate, broken Brexit promises and a string of high-profile scandals (Matt Hancock, Neil Parish, Chris Pincher etc etc.) has built to a level where 4 in 5 people are now dissatisfied with the way the UK is governed. But the latest accusations of impropriety - 2 Conservative candidates investigated by the Gambling Commission over bets placed on a July election just days before Rishi Sunak called the election - won't be a cause for celebration in Labour circles. Declining confidence in our political classes isn't confined to particular individuals or specific parties. Each new scandal erodes public faith in our institutions and lowers the standards we expect of elected officials. So when politicians stand up and ask the public to put their trust in them, the inevitable question comes back - "why should we?" It will take a considerable effort to restore public confidence in our politicians - but ultimately it's the only way to inspire genuine optimism that change is possible and things can be different.

11

3 Comments

Private investors have a critical role to play in delivering a successful transition to net-zero emissions for the UK economy. Find out how government policy can help unlock private investment at the necessary pace and scale in 'Boosting low-carbon investment in the UK: A Policy Roadmap' 👇 https://bit.ly/4gKoIAd #LowCarbon #UKEconomy #Policy

2

Culture and commerce, never the two shall meet. I disagree 👆 In fact, I strongly disagree. These two 'camps' actually need each other to survive and exist. In an age where our government is not valuing the economic impact culture has within the UK or the value proposition it delivers for us globally. Commercial businesses and brands have an opportunity to support and galvanise the creative communities. When I read last week's news that the US Justice Department had initiated a legal challenge against Live Nation Entertainment, alleging the company functions as a monopoly, my first thought was "what a missed opportunity". Since Live Nations' merger with Ticketmaster in 2009, it is clear that the UK's independent music culture has found it much harder to thrive. It's important to note that there are many factors to this, COVID-19, recession etc. Small live music venues, independent music events and festivals have been challenged by the Live Nations' size and power across every element of the live music sector. But, I'm not here to bash Live Nation, what would be the use in that, instead I am here to suggest there might be another way. Imagine a world where Live Nation became a beacon of independent music culture by supporting, galvanising and funding live music in the UK. Why would a commercial business fund its competitors I hear you ask? Well, let's be real, these venues, events, and ticketing platforms are not a threat to Live Nations' commercial business, they just don't have the scale. Simon Sinek said, "Competition is the fuel that ignites innovation." So why can't Live Nation use its resources, its network and its weight to ignite innovation and support the sector as a whole? Tell me what you think. #LiveMusic #CulturalEconomy #MonopolyInvestigation

7

Five years on, what's happened to levelling up? A few conclusions from my latest in The Economist. 1. Gaps between regions in the UK remain stark, and have if anything worsened this parliament. 2. Interest in the topic of regional inequalities looks like it has (unfortunately) died down -- with politicians, corporates, and voters. 3. The polls and local elections suggest that the political dividends of levelling-up are unwinding for the Conservatives. Where does that leave us? Much more in the piece. https://lnkd.in/emN8fh3M

35

And we're off - our new AI/reporting research project with Insig AI and based on the research plan from Imperial College London is now officially under way! (As you'll see from our jolly pic.) If you're in the reporting world, we'd love to hear your views - in particular we're looking for report preparers, including sustainability reporting folk, in FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 companies plus institutional investors to take part in a one-hour online discussion, all confidential. No AI expertise needed! We're just interested in what's going on inside companies, and the views of investors, to help us shape the research. And why would you want to do that, I hear you ask: because you'll be helping us develop recommendations for how AI tools can be used thoughtfully, practically and usefully in reporting to ensure it fulfils its purpose. (Not forgetting of course what types of tools shouldn't be used and when/where!) A worthy endeavour indeed, don't you think?! Please do send me a message if you're interested so we can give you a bit more info.   This builds on my research project last year (huge thanks to all who took part, and do join and give us an update!), which culminated in the launch of my guidance on approach and disclosure for Boards and management on the responsible use of AI in reporting, which you can find here. https://lnkd.in/e4ezpZtW Also looking forward to working with the The Chartered Governance Institute UK & Ireland on the AI/governance/reporting agenda and sharing insights with them!   And I also wanted to introduce our splendid team - from FW, two fab new colleagues in our network, Simon Harper and Miti Ampoma; and from Insig AI, as well as the lovely Diana Rose, we have the also lovely Byeronie Epstein and Steve Cracknell. We'll keep you all updated as we go along!   PS Report writers out there will be pleased to know that we did a basic test just now to see how well ChatGPT could write the Chair's statement of a well-known FTSE100 company; while it all made sense, it had no real insight or content whatsoever... hurrah fur humans. #ethicalai #corporatereporting #annualreport #sustainabilityreporting #esgreporting #esginvesting #corporategovernance Silvia Pavoni Robert Eccles Peter Swabey Alison Taylor Luke Elder Richard Bössen Barbara Zäch Iana Buina Charlotte Morgan Tina Mavraki CFA Dr Henrike Mueller Andrew Hyland Andrew Death James Ashton Katya Gorbatiouk Jade Davenport Kathrin Schöne Volker Lainer Kerstin Lopatta Becca Windsor De Taboada Faisal Khan Dr. Roger Barker Sam Sneddon John Macpherson Louisa Moreton Guy Gresham Laurent Bouvier Adam Wasserman Samantha Mudd Lindsay Beardsell Tim Shanagher Sallie Pilot

31

2 Comments

Great review here by Chris

3

1 Comment

I've penned an op-ed for The Telegraph, digging into my 20mph research to see what it all means for London, now Sadiq Khan has been re-elected. In particular, I examine some of the Mayor's misleading claims and the implications of his impossible "Vision Zero" plan (for zero major road injuries). 📰 👉 https://lnkd.in/e5j8Wwpj This is the 2018 DfT paper mentioned (the "largest, most comprehensive and sophisticated study into the effects of 20mph speed limits to be undertaken in the UK.”) 👉 https://lnkd.in/exjCNk7u The conclusions on safety (page 45) are clear... "insufficient evidence... no meaningful difference." Sure, slower speeds might mean shorter stopping distances, but that doesn’t mean that across a 20 mph zone driving and safety improves relative to a 30 mph zone. One variable tells you little about the real-world impact of the policy in towns and villages. I realised that, in official documents, like "Vision Zero" and media releases, TfL and the Mayor completely ignore this study. Instead, they refer to this 2009 German data (that craftily only looks at head-on pedestrian collisions.) Here 👉 https://lnkd.in/ejUFeevS Why? Because when this selective, outdated, foreign data is cut the right way, it allows them to make dubious claims. One graphic, which appears all over the Mayor's transport plans, claims: “If a pedestrian is hit by a vehicle at 20mph, they are about five times less likely to be killed than if they were hit at 30mph.” It is totally misleading! Here 👉 https://lnkd.in/evGgbAfM So, if there is little evidence that 20mph is safer, why are blanket zones appearing across London? This is one reason I asked boroughs and TfL for the cost-benefit analysis (that they are required to do). Shockingly, most hadn't bothered to do one. See here 👉 https://lnkd.in/ea_S_BEs The "Business case narrative" that TfL sent over (weeks late) only really looks at one-off implementation costs. It's not a cost-benefit-analysis. It just declares there are no costs and parts are incomplete. I get into some issues with it in the Telegraph article. I am happy to share it with anyone interested. It hasn't been scrutinised nearly enough. I'm on [email protected] There are also some highly revealing/amusing lines, like this: "...the Mayor would like to publicise the program ahead of the pre-election period." Is TfL admitting here that the rush to introduce 20mph on the Transport for London Road Network (TLRN) by March was all a ploy to whip up the Mayor's base before the "pre-election period"? Was the deadline about politics, not evidence? The article in full, here, via MSN so those without a subscription can read it too 👇

15

2 Comments

We need to unlock private investment in low-carbon infrastructure at pace and scale if we are to build a competitive low-carbon economy in the UK. The question is how. Read our detailed recommendations in 'Boosting low-carbon investment in the UK: A Policy Roadmap' 👇 https://bit.ly/3MdpBD6 #LowCarbon #UKEconomy #Policy

6

If there was an Olympic competition for the most boring-sounding legislation, the U.K.’s Product Safety and Metrology Bill would surely win gold. But it could be prove a major post-Brexit moment — the new package of laws opens the door to British alignment with EU standards, including the 27-member bloc's sprawling new tech rules, the Digital Services Act (DSA). The DSA’s direct counterpart in the U.K. is the Online Safety Act. But while the EU legislation places new obligations on online marketplaces to clamp down on rogue traders and dangerous goods on their platforms, the U.K. version has no such equivalent, and is focused more squarely on online content. The new product safety package seems to close that gap. Explanatory notes provided by the government say will give the authorities new powers to penalize online marketplaces for allowing unsafe goods to be sold on their platforms. New story w/ Sophie Inge and Jon Stone:

46

1 Comment