Ben Wilson

Is delivering the energy transition the hottest topic in utilities right now?🔥 Ben Wilson, Chief Strategy & External Affairs Officer, National Grid is live on Green Stage giving his keynote 'Delivering the energy transition: a view from National Grid’. Join him now to discover what the road to Net Zero holds. #FoUSummit24 #energy #utilites #NetZero #energytransition  

28

2 Comments

Dedicated Energy Hubs Needed to Transform Scotland into Leading Hydrogen Producer   The Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC), has today [27 June 2024] launched its ‘Energy Hubs: Fill the Backbone’ report, providing recommendations that will help scale Scotland’s hydrogen production potential and establish itself as a leading exporter of green hydrogen through the development of large-scale energy hubs. 🔽 Find more info in comments below 🔽 #EnergyHubs #Scotland #HydrogenProduction #CleanEnergy #RenewableEnergy #GreenHydrogen #OilandGas #RenewableEnergy #GreenEnergy ⤵️ Click Follow on our page to keep up to date with energy news ⤵️

2

1 Comment

End of Day Market Update September 2nd: Energy Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Market Corrections As the trading day drew to a close, energy markets presented a complex and varied landscape, reflecting a mixture of retracement, corrections, and slight gains across key sectors. The UK front-month gas market, in particular, experienced a noticeable sell-off, likely driven by a retracement after reaching recent highs. This decline underscores a potential cooling off in market exuberance as traders reassess positions in response to evolving market dynamics. By the end of the day, the front-month UK Power contract had slipped to £79.00, marking a substantial decline of 2.71%. This drop reflects broader concerns about demand and supply imbalances in the energy market. In tandem, the National Balancing Point (NBP), which serves as a key benchmark for gas trading in the UK, also experienced a significant downturn. Prices fell by 2.97%, ending the day at 93.29p. This downward movement suggests a broader re-evaluation of gas market fundamentals, potentially influenced by factors such as fluctuating demand forecasts and the ongoing adjustments in energy supply chains. Conversely, the carbon market offered a different narrative, with the December 2024 European Union Allowances (EUA) posting a modest gain. The EUA's price edged up by 0.18% to close at €70.43, reflecting continued interest in carbon trading as market participants anticipate future regulatory impacts and the ongoing shift towards more sustainable energy practices. However, the UK Allowances (UKA) market diverged from this trend, with prices falling by 1.5% to settle at £42.66. This decline may indicate regional variations in carbon market dynamics or differing expectations regarding carbon pricing mechanisms within the UK context. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, maintained relative stability throughout the trading session. After slight fluctuations, Brent crude closed the day with a marginal loss of 0.04%, bringing the price to $76.90. This stability suggests that the oil market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders awaiting clearer signals from global economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Overall, today’s market activity paints a picture of a market in flux, with energy prices adjusting in response to a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory factors. The divergent trends across different sectors—gas, power, carbon, and oil—highlight the importance of a nuanced approach to market analysis as participants navigate these challenging and unpredictable conditions. As these trends continue to evolve, market watchers will be keenly observing for signs of further corrections or potential rebounds in the days ahead.

10

As of today Wednesday 9th October, the UK energy market remains volatile, with key developments shaping the landscape across gas, power, oil, and carbon markets. Gas prices have softened, with the UK NBP Day-Ahead (DA) price settling at 94.35 p/therm, reflecting a decrease from yesterday's levels. The market has reacted to forecasts of milder temperatures expected next week, easing some pressure on demand, particularly as LNG arrivals in Europe continue at a steady pace. Norway's gas exports remained stable at 311.2mcm/day, despite a five-day extension to maintenance at the Kristin gas field, now set to resume operations on October 14. Looking at UK gas demand, the system has opened 19mcm/day long this morning. Lower-than-average temperatures, around three degrees below seasonal norms, have led to a rise in UK LDZ demand. Gas-for-power demand is also up as wind speeds have dipped, reducing renewable generation over the next five days. However, wind levels are expected to rebound after this period. On the LNG front, send-out nominations remain stable at 12mcm/day, with three cargoes expected to arrive in the UK before October 27, alongside a number of deliveries scheduled for Northwest Europe. In the oil market, Brent crude prices edged higher to $77.18/bbl, bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lingering concerns over the Chinese economy. Despite this, the price reflects a sharp $3.75 drop from the previous day, suggesting uncertainty continues to cloud the market outlook. UK power prices have followed a similar downward trend. The Day-Ahead Baseload price has fallen to £81.19/MWh, down from £89.09/MWh the previous day. Cooler temperatures have driven up heating demand, but lower wind generation is expected to remain a factor in driving up gas-for-power demand in the coming days. Market sentiment indicates that the decline in power prices could be temporary as forecasts suggest wind generation will pick up next week, stabilising the mix of energy supply. Carbon prices, however, have eased, with the EUA Dec 24 trading at €60.29/tonne. The UK ETS also saw a slight uptick to £36.01/tonne, reflecting some of the broader market uncertainties linked to energy prices and upcoming weather forecasts. Storage levels across Europe remain high at 94.61%, keeping a lid on any further risk premium being priced into gas markets, despite the approaching winter season. UK individual gas storage sites are similarly well-stocked, providing some reassurance to market participants. The interplay of LNG arrivals, storage capacity, and weather-driven demand will continue to influence market prices across the board. With colder weather expected, gas demand is set to stay elevated, but a recovery in renewable output may ease the pressure. Keep an eye on developments in the geopolitical landscape and economic data from China, both of which will likely weigh on market sentiment and energy prices moving forward.

7

19th November Energy Market Update – As temperatures across Northwest Europe dip further below the five-year average, the UK energy market remains on a bullish trajectory. Yesterday's session saw gas and power prices strengthen amidst increased demand, supply-side challenges, and reduced nuclear generation. This morning, the UK gas system opened long by 22 mcm/day. Demand for heating is on the rise, with temperatures forecasted to drop another two degrees today. Total LDZ demand is expected to increase correspondingly, while gas-for-power demand remains steady. Norwegian gas flows into the UK are robust at 111 mcm/day, complemented by healthy LNG send-outs of 76 mcm/day. Notably, the UK anticipates eight LNG tankers in the coming weeks, with two arrivals from the United States today. This stable supply chain is vital as the continent's storage withdrawals continue, with pan-European storage levels at 90.74%. On the power side, prices have mirrored the upward momentum of gas markets. Yesterday's unplanned maintenance at Heysham nuclear plant has temporarily curtailed UK nuclear output to 4.1 GW, with the outage projected to last 28 days. Wind generation is forecasted to hover around seasonal norms, providing limited relief as cold weather persists. In broader markets, Brent crude has climbed to $73.30 per barrel, and European carbon prices edged higher, with EUA Dec-24 certificates trading at €69.51 per tonne. Meanwhile, the pound saw mixed movement, standing at €1.1967 and $1.2676 against the euro and dollar, respectively. Today's dynamics emphasize a familiar winter trend: rising energy demand coupled with supply-side uncertainties. With colder weather and further strain on generation assets likely, the market will be closely monitoring developments in supply routes and storage usage across Europe. Stay warm and stay informed as we navigate another dynamic week in the UK energy market.

9

As of today, 22nd October 2024, UK gas and power markets continue to react to cooler weather forecasts and ongoing supply fluctuations, setting the stage for volatile pricing across the board. Gas prices edged higher with the NBP day-ahead price settling at 99.10 p/therm, reflecting the continued tightening of supply driven by revised weather expectations. Temperatures across North-West Europe are forecasted to dip up to one degree below the five-year average, putting pressure on supply. While Norwegian gas exports via Langeled have increased, boosting UK imports, the UK system opened undersupplied by 10mcm/day this morning. In addition, upcoming LNG shipments are expected to offer some relief, with two tankers scheduled to arrive in the UK over the next five days, complementing an influx of deliveries into Northwest European terminals. The European storage situation remains secure, with pan-European storage levels standing at a healthy 95%, allowing for continued injections across the continent. The power market saw similar fluctuations as day-ahead baseload prices in the UK settled at 86.97 £/MWh, up from the previous session, with the peak price reaching 94.59 £/MWh. Wind generation is forecasted to remain at seasonal norms for the next few days, though expectations point to increased output as the week progresses. The power curve is following gas prices closely, with additional support from firming carbon and coal markets. Brent oil is trading at 74.29 $/bbl, slightly up from last week, while coal prices have risen to 122.65 $/tonne. Carbon markets showed a minor dip, with EUA Dec-24 contracts now at 61.76 €/tonne. Currency fluctuations continue to play a role, with the pound trading at 1.2003 against the euro and 1.2984 against the dollar. These rates reflect ongoing concerns around inflation and interest rate adjustments, which could influence energy market dynamics moving forward. Despite some moderation in supply constraints, the near-term outlook for the UK energy market remains dependent on weather conditions, Norwegian pipeline exports, and LNG arrivals. As the colder months set in, continued monitoring of these key drivers will be crucial for market participants.

8

1 Comment

6th December 2024, Daily UK #Energy Market Overview - This morning, the UK energy market faces a challenging landscape with the system opening 9 mcm/day undersupplied. #Gas prices show a slight decline, with NBP Day-Ahead settling at 114.50 p/therm. Meanwhile, UK Power Day-Ahead Base dropped significantly to £77.75/MWh, down by £15.73, reflecting bearish conditions across the board. Colder weather looms as temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal norms from this weekend, increasing heating demand and pressure on energy systems. While #LNG send-outs remain steady, Norwegian exports are ramping up, mitigating some supply concerns despite additional planned maintenance at Sleipner and Gullfaks. UK gas demand surged to 248.77 mcm, driven by robust LDZ requirements. Wind generation is forecast to weaken next week, further tightening gas-for-#power needs. Power prices softened significantly due to strong wind generation earlier in the week and declining European gas storage levels, now at 84%, marking a 3% week-on-week drop. The geopolitical landscape adds complexity, with President Putin's decree easing payment methods for gas exports to counter sanctions against Gazprombank. Market reactions remain muted but watchful as these changes could influence European and UK energy curves further. On the global front, Brent crude is stable at $72.09/bbl, while coal prices fell to $115.54/tonne. Carbon trading saw minor dips, with EUA Dec 24 at €67.34/tonne and UK ETS Dec 24 at £36.17/tonne, reflecting subdued industrial activity. Currency movements show a slight strengthening of the pound, with GBP/EUR at 1.2077 and GBP/USD at 1.2758. This offers mild relief for import-heavy energy trades but remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions. As colder weather and supply challenges converge, market participants must stay vigilant, especially with LNG arrivals scheduled to bolster supplies. The evolving dynamics of European storage, renewables output, and geopolitical influences will continue shaping the market trajectory.

8

Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

9

Today October 11th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with a strong position, reflecting the ongoing shifts in both gas and power sectors. NBP day-ahead gas prices were up to 98.50p/therm, continuing the upward momentum seen from yesterday as colder-than-expected temperatures swept across Europe, leading to increased demand. The UK system opened long at 11mcm/day this morning due to revised down demand forecasts and higher flows from Norway through Langeled. Norwegian supply remains robust despite unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks, which are expected to resolve by early next week. LNG send-out remained steady at 12mcm/day, primarily from the South Hook terminal, with two LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. European storage levels are high, at 94.74%. UK day-ahead power prices surged to £87.67/MWh, driven by the rising gas prices and colder weather. Forward power contracts also saw gains, with November 2024 base contracts trading at £86.50/MWh, reflecting the tight supply outlook as temperatures are expected to remain below normal until early next week. EDF’s announcement that their output target for next year remains unchanged at 335-365TWh provides some stability to the market, although nuclear outages in the UK and Europe remain a concern. Notably, Sizewell B begins planned maintenance today, reducing its capacity by 490MW for the next 47 days. Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.40/bbl, fueled by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. In parallel, carbon prices climbed to €65.00/tonne for EUA Dec 2024, and UK ETS prices increased to £38.07/tonne. The rise in carbon prices adds further pressure on power markets, particularly as coal prices also saw a significant jump, with ARA CIF coal for Cal 2025 reaching $126.15/tonne. The currency markets saw minor fluctuations, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1949 and GBP/USD at 1.3058, as the energy sector keeps an eye on global economic indicators that could affect import costs and inflation. As we head into mid-October, the outlook remains bullish with colder temperatures expected to continue driving demand. Two more LNG cargoes are expected by early November, providing some relief, but supply risks persist. We could see continued price volatility as the market navigates these challenges.

3

As the UK #energy #market gears up for colder weather, rising demand and tightening supply conditions are driving up prices, with market participants already preparing for the volatility of the upcoming winter months. The UK NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 88.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.75 p/therm increase from the previous day. The market has been bolstered by a combination of cooler weather across Europe and a five-day extension to the maintenance outage at Norway’s Kollsnes gas processing plant. The plant is now scheduled to return to full operation on 18th September, but its curtailed capacity of 52 mcm/day has already lifted European hub prices. UK demand has risen sharply as temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly below seasonal norms, with the coldest point expected on Friday when temperatures are predicted to fall 5-7°C below the five-year average. The UK gas system opened today with a surplus, running 19 mcm long. UKCS terminal receipts increased to 88.8 mcm/day, up by 9.4 mcm from yesterday, while Norwegian flows to the UK were also slightly higher. Total LNG send-out remains steady at 10 mcm/day, with storage withdrawals increasing in response to the colder weather. The UK has two LNG tankers scheduled to arrive, one at the Isle of Grain today and another in three weeks, which will help support the system in the near term. Meanwhile, Europe’s storage levels remain robust at 93.19% full, ensuring a buffer against the seasonal demand spike. Looking at gas contracts, the Oct24 price rose by 2.73 p/therm to 87.31 p/therm, while the Winter 2024 contract increased by 1.63 p/therm to settle at 97.19 p/therm. There is growing concern among market participants about potential price volatility in the months ahead, with the Q1 2025 contract now at 100.57 p/therm, a 1.35 p/therm increase from yesterday. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price surged to £78.00/MWh, an increase of £27.96/MWh compared to the previous session. The increase reflects the upward movement in gas prices and reduced wind generation. Forward power contracts are also responding to these movements, with the Winter 2024 base contract settling at £85.50/MWh. Despite this rise, supply fundamentals remain stable, with the UK benefiting from healthy interconnector flows and stable nuclear generation. Oil markets also saw upward pressure today, with Brent crude rising to $70.61/bbl, a $1.42/bbl increase from the previous day, driven by concerns over supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine. Coal prices followed suit, with the API2 Cal Y+1 contract increasing to $117.54/tonne. With colder weather and supply constraints tightening the market, participants will be closely monitoring both demand and key infrastructure developments over the coming days. All eyes remain on Norway and the potential for more volatility ahead of the winter heating season.

10

2 Comments

ESNZ Committee looking forward to exploring ideas with GB Energy about its role in the race for clean energy.   On Wednesday 20 November the newly reappointed Energy Security and Net Zero Committee will hold its first public evidence session in Parliament, looking at the role that Great British Energy (GBE) is expected to play in the energy market.     The flagship publicly-owned energy company, “designed to drive clean energy deployment, boost energy independence, create jobs” was announced with an initial £8 billion budget to 2029 as part of major new Government commitments on achieving clean energy.     But with only £100 million earmarked for investment in renewables in the next two years, questions have already been raised about the impact it can have on the Government’s 2030 clean energy target.   The Committee will question the new Chair of GBE Professor Juergen Maier CBE FRS FREng. Director at GBE Tim Cullen recently admitted that it is not yet clear how the remit of GBE to invest in clean power projects and infrastructure will sit alongside a newly created National Wealth Fund. One of the questions from the select committee on Wednesday will be whether it is being setup in an appropriate way to achieve its ambitions without distorting existing investment.   Will it learn the lessons from previous UK and current EU state-owned companies and be able to drive private investment? Will it have an impact on the core aim of lowering consumer energy bills?     The Committee will also question the Chair at Great British Nuclear (GBN), another publicly owned company, established only about a year ago with the remit to “drive the delivery of new nuclear energy projects in the UK” and contribute to meeting the UK’s legally binding 2050 target for a net zero economy.

173

16 Comments

A quick Friday summary from Zeigo's Energy Markets Team... UK Power prices have levelled off over the week. Calendar 2025 UK power is around £88/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week) but ‘26 and ’27 are around £77/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week). UK CPPA prices are around £70/MWh to £85/MWh (CPI indexed) with good project availability meaning there are still opportunities for corporates to go to market for a CPPA. The European energy markets remain flat as well, and front-year German power contract remain flat, trading around €97.5/MWh. CPPA prices for larger volumes in Germany are around €65/MWh to €85/MWh. UK CPPA activity continues with PPAs announced in the market by Tesco and University of Manchester amongst others. Some details are emerging about possible energy policies from Labour and the Conservatives for the election – they are a trifle uninspiring and include... On Oil & Gas there will be a Windfall Tax (until 2029 Cons, possibly 2030 Lab) with Labour upping it to 38%. Whilst Labour is “supportive” of Nuclear they have no set targets whereas the Conservatives are aiming for 24GW by 2050. Both parties will target more Offshore wind, 50GW by 2030 by the conservatives and 5GW more from Labour. The conservatives are targeting 20GW more Solar than Labour (Cons 70GW by 2035), but Labour have an onshore wind target of 35GW (Cons have nothing set) giving a higher target for Labour by 2030 overall. 

15

📢 Ofgem to unveil new energy price cap tomorrow! 📉 Experts predict a 7% drop in energy bills when the new price cap comes into effect in July. Tomorrow, the energy regulator Ofgem is scheduled to announce its next quarterly price cap, set to cover the period from 1 July to 30 September 2024. This announcement will be based on the wholesale assessment period from 18th February to 16th May 2024. Credit - Energy Live News Ofgem Eco Logic Partners #energy #pricecap #ofgem #power #gas #utilities

5

This morning 14th October, the UK energy system started the week short by 19 million cubic meters, underscoring market tightness. Gas prices eased slightly, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 96.40 p/therm, down from Friday. However, volatility remains a factor as global markets continue to react to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Norwegian flows to the UK are stable at 77.5 mcm/day, though a small unplanned outage at Oseberg is curtailing 12 mcm/day, with full capacity expected to resume tomorrow. LNG sendout has increased to 38 mcm/day, with Milford Haven preparing to receive a shipment tomorrow, marking the first of three cargoes expected in the coming weeks. Demand for gas-fired power is expected to decline as wind generation picks up throughout the week, thanks to improving wind speeds. Forecasts predict warmer-than-usual temperatures, peaking above seasonal norms by midweek and likely staying mild until the end of October. Storage injections continue across Europe, with total reserves now 94.93% full, although intermittent withdrawals are being made to meet higher spot demand in some regions. The UK power market saw day-ahead baseload prices soften to 76.08 £/MWh, reflecting the downward trend in gas prices. Peak power prices dropped even more sharply, settling at 77.32 £/MWh, down from Friday’s levels. Renewables are expected to play a larger role this week, easing pressure on gas-fired generators. Brent crude prices remain steady, with the front-month contract at 79.04 $/bbl, as market participants monitor developments in the Middle East. Carbon prices also saw minimal movement, with EUA Dec-24 trading at 64.62 €/tonne and UK ETS Dec-24 at 37.55 £/tonne. Currency markets showed little change, with GBP/EUR at 1.1947 and GBP/USD at 1.3066. With several LNG arrivals on the horizon and wind generation set to increase, the market may experience some easing in supply concerns as we move through the week. Nonetheless, the potential for disruptions, especially from global geopolitical events, remains a key factor to watch.

8

1 Comment

How can hydrogen power data centres, and industry? Our new whitepaper, which is being launched in partnership with Ceres and Centrica, explains everything. Like traditional thermal generation, an SOFC unit uses a gas to create power. Whether this is hydrogen, biomethane or natural gas it does it without combustion to provide highly efficient, quiet, clean power. Ben Richardson, head of electrolysers & SOFC at Bosch UK, said: “One of hydrogen’s strongest use cases is to use it for power. Coupled with local hydrogen production this not only bolsters the UK’s energy security but it provides power when renewables such and wind and solar cannot.” Click here to read the whitepaper: https://bit.ly/3Zc8Tvd

58

6th November 2024: UK energy markets are navigating a landscape marked by tightening gas supplies, volatile power demand, and the shifting influences of global commodities. This morning’s gas prices settled with NBP Day-Ahead at 102.60 p/therm, reflecting mixed market signals. Reduced output from Norway’s Visund gas field yesterday, due to unplanned maintenance, has now resumed but highlighted the delicate balance of UK gas supply. Meanwhile, demand for gas in power generation remains elevated, exacerbated by limited wind generation expected over the next few days before a brief pickup ahead of the weekend. Today’s power market sees UK Day-Ahead Baseload at £118.48/MWh, with peak prices reaching £146.12/MWh. This surge is tied to reduced renewable generation as both wind and solar production remain low, primarily due to persistent cloud coverage and minimal wind speeds. Nuclear constraints also weigh in, with two reactors offline, totalling 1.2 GW of unavailable capacity. These reactors are expected back online in late November and early December, underscoring the near-term pressure on UK baseload power stability. The UK’s reliance on LNG continues, with three cargoes inbound over the coming days to ease the supply strain. LNG has become an increasingly vital component in balancing UK energy needs, especially as colder months approach. Across the continent, Northwest Europe is also set to receive substantial LNG imports, adding to the supply pool yet facing the same regional weather constraints affecting renewable generation. In the broader energy landscape, Brent crude oil is steady at $75.53 per barrel, while coal remains strong at $120.97/tonne for next year’s ARA CIF contract. Carbon markets reflect moderate changes with EU allowances (EUA) at €64.30 per tonne and UK ETS at £38.34 per tonne. These values underscore the dual pressures of regulatory carbon targets and market adjustments to evolving demand. Today’s session highlights the ongoing dynamics between domestic production, international imports, and the variable output of renewables in shaping the UK’s energy market. As supply adjustments unfold, close monitoring of gas flows, nuclear capacity, and renewables will be key to maintaining equilibrium in both pricing and availability across the market.

7

As of this morning Thursday 14th November, the UK energy market is navigating significant dynamics against a backdrop of cooler weather and evolving supply conditions. Spot gas prices saw a minor dip, with NBP day-ahead trading at 110.95 p/therm, reflecting a modest decrease from the prior session. Despite this, the system opened 12 mcm/day short, indicative of tightening conditions as terminal receipts dropped by 10 mcm/day and LNG send-outs from South Hook fell. Power prices have also followed a downward trajectory; the UK day-ahead baseload settled at £106.50/MWh, down £6.50 from the previous day. This dip aligns with increased French nuclear production, which has reached its highest levels in nine months, alleviating some pressure across interconnected markets. Meanwhile, Brent oil experienced a slight uptick, trading at $72.28/bbl, amid broader market adjustments. Looking forward, the UK is poised for a cold spell between 18th and 25th November, with forecasts suggesting temperatures will hover below seasonal norms through the end of the month. This anticipated cold snap could place additional strain on gas demand and power generation, underscoring the importance of stable Norwegian and LNG flows. With four LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the next two weeks, market watchers are balancing immediate system tightness against longer-term supply forecasts. The market will also monitor geopolitical ripples, particularly in light of OMV’s pursuit of €230 million in arbitration against Gazprom Export and Germany's decision to bar Russian LNG from state-owned terminals. These developments may signal further complexities in Europe’s energy landscape as winter deepens.

8

Morning Briefing 26/06/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 27.5GW and due to peak this evening at 28.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £65 - £114 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £84.19 in the 1hr and £84.79 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 1.4GW and due to climb over 9GW this evening and continue up to 16GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 9.8GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £106.28/MWh with gas providing 36.4%/10.56GW, wind providing 7.1%/2.06GW, solar providing 10.4%/3.02GW and nuclear providing 18.1%/5.27GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 83.00p/th (2.83p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at 68.50/MWh (6.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (July 24) ·July NBP gas is currently up 0.69% at 82.15p/th (2.80p/KWh). ·July TTF gas is currently up 0.77% at €35.12MWh. ·July UK Baseload closed at £73.50/MWh (7.35p/KWh) ·UK gas prices climbed slightly again yesterday, with the DA price closing 0.61% up due to the weak renewable sector. Along the curve, the market reacted more, with the Win24 contract up 1.29% on slight worries of supply over the peak demand season. ·UK power prices again followed the gas sentiment, with the DA price up 2.53% due to the forecast low wind generation for today. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was up 0.95% on worries over future supply for the upcoming peak demand season and into winter. ·According to Gassco AS, there is an unplanned outage at the Visund asset this morning, with an unavailable capacity of 12.6mcm. ·Capacity from Denmark to the UK over the 1.4GW Viking Link increased from 800MW to 1GW from yesterday, capacity from the UK to Denmark will remain at 1.1GW. ·Oil prices are up this morning, despite a surprise jump in US stockpiles, driven by geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict and forecasts of an eventual inventory drawdown during the third quarter peak demand season. ·Latest forecasts continue to show temps to be above seasonal norms for the coming days and then fall slightly to averages.   ·We are expecting 1 LNG cargo in the coming weeks.   ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 81.59p/th (2.78p/KWh) up 2.38% DoD* o   Q4 24 98.02p/th (3.35p/KWh) up 1.36% DoD o   Winter 24 100.75p/th (3.44p/KWh) up 1.29% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £74.25/MWh (7.43p/KWh) up 2.77% DoD* o   Q4 24 £85.95MWh (8.60p/KWh) up 0.73% DoD o   Winter 24 £89.05MWh (8.91p/KWh) up 0.95% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary William Sam Karl Martin Chart credit - e*star #energy #power #gas #markets #renewables #wind #lng #energymarkets #norway

12

1 Comment

Partner's News The Energy Hubs – Fill the Backbone report by Hydrogen Scotland member Net Zero Technology Centre highlights the emerging opportunity to export green hydrogen from Scotland into the expanding hydrogen market in Europe. Economic modelling indicates that a 10 GW scale Energy Hub in Scotland producing green hydrogen from floating offshore wind could produce hydrogen for £3.90/kg. To capitalise on this opportunity, Scotland will need to develop strategic Energy Hubs in time to meet this growing demand. https://lnkd.in/gPJgp5SC

2