Ben Kilbey

London Metal Exchange week is always a good opportunity to take the pulse of the global metals markets. An unexpected highlight for me was the investment panel on the afternoon of the LME's Monday seminar. Here's my take on the discussion. Energy transition story rekindles fund interest in metals: https://lnkd.in/e9SUvrJ4

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Fitch Ratings has affirmed JSC Almalyk Mining And Metallurgical Complex rating at 'BB-' with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of JSC Almalyk Mining And Metallurgical Complex at 'BB-' with a stable outlook (in line with Fitch's international rating for #Uzbekistan). Fitch assesses the combine's standalone credit profile (SCP) as 'b+', reflecting its small but growing scale of operations, commodity diversification across copper, gold, zinc and silver, favourable core asset cost position, long reserve life and moderate leverage. #AGMK's production (149,000 tonnes of copper and 0.5 million ounces of gold) is higher than Hudbay's (132,000 tonnes of copper and 0.2 million ounces of gold) but significantly lower than FQM and Freeport, which are among the world's top 10 copper producers. FQM produced 707,678 tonnes in 2023, while Freeport produced 1.2 million tonnes. The #Yoshlik project is a landmark copper, gold and silver project for the plant and the country's mining industry, which will double production and diversify the company's assets. The $4.8 billion first phase of the project includes a new mine and processing plant that will significantly increase copper production to 264,000 tonnes (t) by 2026 (up 78% from 2023) and gold production to over 800,000 ounces by 2026 (up 50%). The second phase, which includes the construction of a new copper smelter at approximately $1 billion, is expected to increase #AGMK's smelting capacity. Until the smelter is completed, the company will sell copper concentrate.

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Turbulence on the London Metal Exchange on Monday as traders reacted to the latest US and UK sanctions packages against Russia. Russian brands of aluminium, copper and nickel produced after April 13 will no longer be warrantable against either the LME or the CME contracts. However, metal produced before that date can still be traded, effectively splitting pricing between "old" and "new" Russian metal. Since this item appeared, the LME has seen 80,000t of aluminium cancelled in what looks like a warrant sift for non-Russian metal. LME suspends new Russian metal deliveries after sanctions: https://lnkd.in/egraDGd2

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#FCM First Class Metals PLC LSE:FCM FRA:WN9 - Suspension of Listing -The Company will continue to work closely with RPG to ensure that the audited results for the year ended 31 December 2023 are published ASAP. -As a result of this delay, the Company's shares will be temporarily suspended with effect from 1 May 2024. Read- https://lnkd.in/dTByYrdk #shares #audit #metals #resources #smallcap

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Sources have told Fastmarkets that the record-low spot copper concentrate TCs have meant that a number of miners have agreed to sell material increasingly deep into the future, with tenders for material as far off as 2028 on offer. Sources told Fastmarkets that multiple deals for 2025 have been agreed below zero TC, and for 2026 and beyond at less than one half of wherever that years’ benchmark is agreed. Miners believe they can use the currently competative market to lock in favourable TCs for the coming years. Meanwhile traders are settling in for a pronlonged period of tight concentrate supply. Full article available for free on Fastmarkets’ website here: https://lnkd.in/eZvvGpuJ Fastmarkets Fastmarkets Metals and Mining #copper #coppermining

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The London Metal Exchange is planning measures to boost electronic trading in its monthly contracts, a move that may reduce activity in its unique three-month rolling contracts that serve as a benchmark for the global metals industry. The measures — including a requirement for dealers to place small trades in monthly contracts electronically — may lead to those contracts becoming the “key liquidity point” for users, just like they are on rival exchanges, the LME said in a notice to members Wednesday. Since its was founded in the 19th century, the LME’s benchmark contracts have been for delivery in three months’ time — which at the time was the approximate shipping time for Malaysian tin and Chilean copper to the UK. That historical quirk has set it apart from rival exchanges like CME Group and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which concentrate liquidity in monthly contracts, and has irritated some users. “We have not done a good job of giving people a choice: they have been forced to use that three-month contract to go into and out of positions because we haven’t offered an alternative,” LME Chief Executive Matthew Chamberlain said in an interview. While the exchange would not “switch off” the three-month contract, he said the new measures would “let the market the decide where they want to trade.” Mark Burton #LME #metals #commoditytrading https://lnkd.in/eKHDm_rq

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Copper producers issue fresh warnings about price volatility, there is a ‘disconnect’ between government policies and growing demand for red metal Copper producers have issued fresh warnings about price volatility for the red metal — vital for the clean energy transition — as the industry meets for its most important annual gathering, the London Metal Exchange week. Iván Arriagada, chief executive of Chilean copper producer Antofagasta, said there was a “disconnect” between government policies that were not issuing permits for new mines quickly enough, and demand for the metal. Over the next decade the world needs to add the equivalent of Chile’s entire copper production, otherwise there was a risk the energy transition “will be delayed”. The expected shortage of the metal, which is used in electricity grids, wiring and electric cars, would mean price swings would be “sharp from time to time”, he said, speaking at the FT Mining Summit last week. “The copper market has traditionally been very sensitive to the short-term contingent macro element,” he added. Arriagada’s comments were made just ahead of LME Week, which begins on September 30, where producers, traders and users meet to agree contracts for the following year. “Volatility is going to be a persistent feature,” said Nicholas Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, a trading house, referring to copper prices. “It’s going to be a seesaw.” Last week copper had its biggest weekly gain in four months, up 6 per cent as it broke through $10,000 per ton, after China announced stimulus measures expected to shore up demand in the world’s largest consumer of the metal. Prices surged to a record high of more than $11,100 in May, driven by constrained supply and demand for renewable energy, before sinking over the summer as some analysts questioned miners’ repeated predictions of shortages. Copper miners predict industry overhaul as end users rush to secure supply Jonathan Price, chief executive of Teck Resources, a Canadian copper and zinc producer, said the latest additional stimulus measures from China should “spur some new demand”. However, even the rising copper prices may not be “sufficient to incentivize the building of some of the megaprojects that the world is going to need”, he added. The establishment of new metal mines typically takes years, sometimes more than a decade. This has fueled persistent concerns of a looming shortage of metals including copper and lithium, which are used in key areas such as infrastructure and car batteries. Other executives emphasized the central role that copper would play in the coming years and the need to boost supply. Anglo American chief executive Duncan Wanblad said the world was “almost completely united on how important copper is”. "The priority has to be copper in the short run”. Peter Toth, chief development officer at gold miner Newmont, said: “At an industry or societal level, somebody has to build more copper mines.”

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Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week BHP Group Ltd. is pulling out the stops to gain support for a proposed tie-up with rival Anglo American Plc, but calculating the true #value of the megadeal can be a bit tricky. US natural gas prices have snapped a losing streak. And wheat #traders will be watching for the latest US Department of #Agriculture estimates on crops, with the grain being of particular interest as North America’s growing season begins. https://lnkd.in/esT8sAWE

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#StockBox #FMET #Gold StockBox speaks to Fulcrum Metals PLC CEO Ryan Mee following the RNS detailing Positive Initial Results from Phase 1 Tailings Programme at Teck-Hughes. See the full interview below: https://lnkd.in/ektBxuYQ We covered: ➡ Higher Gold Grade Results: The initial results from phase one of the tailing sampling at the Tech Hughes site revealed a gold grade 16.9% higher than historically reported, a significant improvement considering these are tailings (mine waste). ➡ The sampling involved six different sites to get an average weighted result of 0.717 grams per ton, which is notably higher than previously expected. ➡ Phase one is not yet complete; it includes checking and verifying the gold grade and conducting leech tests to extract gold from the tailings. Results from these tests are expected shortly. The first batch is due any day back from the lab. ➡ The company has a close working relationship with Extrakt. This technology has shown promise in other contexts, suggesting recovery rates might significantly improve compared to traditional methods. ➡ More detailed cost analysis and profitability projections will be part of phase two. The company aims to optimize the leeching process and increase recovery rates, potentially leading to better financial outcomes for the company and its stakeholders.

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China's customs authorities are expected to tighten scrutiny over the iron and sulfur content of imported metal ores, sparking concerns among copper and gold industry players as such a move could add to production costs for smelters at a time when the market outlook is bleak, industry sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights Aug. 20. Market chatter indicated #ChineseCustoms would require testing of iron and sulfur content of #metal ores that are being imported as gold concentrate, and authorities may instead categorize them as pyrites. Read more: https://okt.to/finLGS

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Gain vital insights into the rare earth markets outlook and government policies affecting the supply pipeline with our newly launched Critical Minerals Briefing Quarterly on S&P Capital IQ Pro platform: https://okt.to/FLVh0Q #REEs #CriticalMinerals

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Well written report on the complexities of geopolitics, supply and demand factors, and government policies all reshaping rare earth supply chains. #NorraKärr #HeavyRareEarthElements #HREE #Sweden #sustainablemining #SecurityofSupply #CriticalRawMaterials #CRMA #Europe

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Market Overview The recent article from Reuters discusses the contrasting perspectives on China’s economic stimulus and its impact on commodity markets, particularly copper and iron ore. As a trading company, we recognize the importance of these insights for our strategic positioning in the commodities market. China’s commitment to economic stimulus has historically been a significant driver for demand in commodities like copper and iron ore. The article highlights that while some market participants remain optimistic about the potential for increased demand due to government spending, others express skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these measures in revitalizing the economy. This divergence in sentiment is crucial for traders as it may lead to volatility in prices. For instance, if the stimulus measures are perceived as insufficient or ineffective, we could see a downturn in commodity prices as traders adjust their expectations. Conversely, if there is evidence of robust demand stemming from these policies, we might witness upward pressure on prices. Therefore, staying informed about China’s economic indicators and policy announcements will be essential for making informed trading decisions. Copper is often viewed as a bellwether for global economic health due to its widespread use in construction and manufacturing. The article indicates that while some analysts remain bullish on copper prices owing to anticipated infrastructure projects fueled by stimulus spending, others caution against overestimating this demand given current economic uncertainties. As a trading company, we must closely monitor supply chain dynamics and inventory levels. A potential increase in production or a slowdown in construction activity could significantly impact copper prices. Our strategy should involve hedging against price fluctuations while also exploring opportunities for long positions if market conditions appear favorable. Similarly, iron ore remains a critical commodity driven by China’s steel production needs. The report suggests that while there is optimism regarding steel output due to infrastructure projects, skepticism persists about whether these initiatives will materialize into sustained demand for iron ore. In light of this information, our trading approach should include an analysis of steel production forecasts and any regulatory changes affecting mining operations in China. The outlook for copper and iron ore remains mixed amid China’s ongoing economic stimulus efforts. As a trading company, it is imperative that we remain agile and responsive to both bullish and bearish signals from the market. Continuous monitoring of economic data from China will be key to navigating this complex landscape effectively. https://lnkd.in/gZQzf6K7

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As China spoils the bulls' party at LME, we foresee the following five developments in H2: 1. Spot TCs of Copper, Zinc and Tin might bounce sharply as mining output recovers (howsoever moderately) and Chinese smelters cut the operating rates due to a growing surplus of the refined metal and negative margins. More importantly, traders (or investors) who "stocked" ores / concentrate to exacerbate the fall in TCs in H1, would be forced to sell them into the market. 2. Shipping freights have peaked, might fall. The congestion, especially in Asia, is receding. More ships are adding to the fleet. Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) has been dropping for the last three weeks. The pace of fall in the sea-freight could accelerate in the months to come and might show a steep drop by Q4 as fear of a new chapter of US-China trade-war advances Chinese exports to Q3. 3. The above means that the physical premium of most base metals have peaked. Spot premium might fall as the year progresses. 4. The COT report tells us that despite a 13% fall in the LME Index, the "hope" premium remains too large to justify. This might push metal prices to a new 2024 low sometime soon. 5. Lastly, we find that a synchronised sell-off, across financial markets, is gradually developing. Charts, history and correlations tell us. Smart money might begin to prepare for a global economic downturn, in 2025. Momentum money might step back thus making US Dollar as a surprise winner (although temporarily). We welcome your views. #TC #copper #outlook #freight #economy #premium #metals #basemetals Download the MIC app, using the following links, to read our comprehensive coverage of the global base metals industry. Android: https://lnkd.in/dC5Ta_KB iOS: https://lnkd.in/dcpMuveH Whatsapp us at +91 9136051205 or write to us at [email protected] for any help relating to subscription or technical support.

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Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results Watch the full interview ▶️ https://lnkd.in/evVtatp3 Sovereign Metals (ASX:SVM; AIM:SVML), the developer of the world’s largest natural rutile and one of the largest natural graphite projects globally, has announced strong graphite test results at the company’s Kasiya project in Malawi. The explorer has told investors the graphite pre-concentrate from its Lilongwe laboratory facility in Malawi has produced high quality concentrates in benchtop and pilot-scale flotation and cleaning tests. These results are significant with the data confirming over 97% Total Graphite Content (TGC) and flotation recoveries exceeding 90%. Furthermore, the flotation results also demonstrated the mine ore upgrades to more than 55% TGC after the first round of flotation. Just as important for the project is the low level of impurities, which Sapan Ghai, chief commercial officer, says; "is exactly what's required for graphite to work well within a battery." In this interview, investors will also learn: - Why these results have reinforced Sovereign’s ‘strong conviction’ that its product is good enough for future customers - What incremental percentage increases in the graphite grade mean for the price that can be achieved for the product - How the graphite concentrate grade compares with those achieved by peers - The company’s future plans for its own laboratory in Malawi Reasons to add SVML to your watchlist: - Commercialising the Worlds largest ever Rutile discovery and the World’s second largest Flake Graphite deposit - Poised to be the largest producer of both minerals at the lowest production cost/t - Positive PFS; NPV8 of US$1,505m with EBITDA of $415m - Strong balance sheet - 15% strategic Investor, Rio Tinto - Positive newsflow expected on Graphite and Rutile over the next six months #SovereignMetals #SVML #RioTinto #Malawi #Africa #Rutile #Graphite

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American West Metals Limited (ASX: AW1) is pleased to report on its quarterly activities for the period ending 31 March 2024. Dave O'Neill, Managing Director of American West Metals commented: “This period has seen American West Metals complete significant milestones including the delivery of the Storm maiden MRE, and the commencement of the 2024 exploration and resource expansion activities. “The maiden MRE for the Storm Project has exceeded our expectations and delivered the foundations to what we believe will be a globally significant copper district. “Within only a single season of resource drilling we have rapidly defined four robust copper deposits very close to surface: Cyclone, Chinook, Corona, and Cirrus. The setting and scale of the mineralisation gives us the opportunity to potentially mine 100% of the resource with a low-cost, high-margin open-pit mining operation “We are also very pleased to report that the drilling and exploration program for 2024 is now in full swing at Storm. “This initial phase of drilling will use the tracked RC drill rig to move quickly through the initial exploration and resource expansion areas. We believe these targets will give us strong potential for the discovery of new zones of copper mineralisation and confirmation of additional copper resources. “We have also commenced the high-powered Moving Loop Electromagnetic (MLEM) survey at Storm. This survey has the potential to generate new targets in higher resolution and at deeper levels than previous surveys, opening the area for further copper discoveries. EM surveys have proven to be a reliable targeting tool with all of the EM anomalies tested to date correlating with high-grade copper sulphides. “We look forward to strong news flow over the coming months as the drilling and geophysical programs continue.” View announcement here: https://loom.ly/9BnMDIA #ASX #AW1 #Copper

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What are the key trends in the Copper Market? 1. Rising Demand Driven by the energy transition 2. Supply Struggles 3. Increased copper recycling 4. Looming copper deficit Read more here: https://shorturl.at/xZo2Y #mining #copper #gold #dorecopper #quebec #canada #juniormining #stocks #tsxv #coppermining

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