Anthony Gutman

Nice to see Joe Easton’s positive article focusing on London’s successes, far too often the commentary of London as a financial hub is overly negative. The stats show that the City remains an unrivalled centre, one which has the potential to attract significantly more activity and capital for the benefit of the whole of the UK. London Still Europe’s Share Sale Capital Even With Few IPOs - Share sales of $11.3 billion dwarf other European cities - UK remains in top spot even after rate hikes spurred downturn https://lnkd.in/eRtShiNM

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Excellent that Phoenix and Schroders are partnering to create a huge new fund to channel money directly into fast growing private companies, as reported by the FT. "The world is shifting from public to private" and "The UK's private companies are an untapped universe of investment opportunity" according to Schroders CEO. This is fantastic news for the UK Middle Market space where entrepreneurialism is abundant in highly motivated Board rooms up and down the UK. Investment managers will likely struggle to generate market leading returns if the middle market space is absent from their strategy given the high growth nature of this market segment. It bodes well for middle market M&A advisors and sellers with more buyers now in town and means some niche advisors, if they haven't already, need to turn to private company advisory to remain in the game in the context of advisor consolidation over the last couple of years. #corporatefinance #investmentbanking #privateequity

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Best main street explanation of secondaries I’ve seen, with it taking into account the ‘what if’ of the stock market instead, and the cost of borrowing to advance short-term liquidity. Everything is cyclical, and as long as learning takes place every cycle, and contingencies evolve, I’m confident that pensions and PE will remain strong partners over the coming decades.

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From phones to E-trading - then from E-trading to more advanced trading techniques. As Coalition Greenwich (a division of CRISIL) reports, "63% of fixed income traders highlighted access to liquidity from a single blotter as the most attractive functionality, closely followed by 51% of respondents confirming that aggregation of market data from multiple sources/formats was the number one desire." Yet “factors including cost and quantifiable return on investment (ROI) still hinder traders who are considering the adoption of new trading technology” Ediphy remains the quickest and most cost efficient way for buy-side firms to simplify access to multiple liquidity end-points with a normalised trading interface. Our approach is unique, novel and not for everyone. However if you are truly looking for meaningful innovation in fixed income execution technology without the need for multi-million dollar integration projects - do get in touch with our team: https://lnkd.in/e9C3TDJQ https://lnkd.in/egjk_8PZ

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Genuine question for fellow QT nerds / financial plumbing experts. The BoE MPC voted to keep the pace of Quantitative Tightening unchanged at £100bn for the next 12 months, c. 90% of which will come through a passive run-off of existing holdings, and c. 10% from active sales. Bank reserves are currently upwards of £700bn, well above the BoE’s own estimate of even the £490bn upper bound of the Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves (which should delineate between what central bankers have started calling “abundant” and “ample” reserves). In other words, by the Bank’s own reckoning, it should have lots of room to shrink its balance sheet before bank reserves start to become scarce. Fine. However, this is happening against the backdrop of exponentially growth in banks drawing on the Bank’s Short Term Repo (STR) facility – not something you would expect in an environment where every bank has “abundant” reserves. If you were sitting on the MPC, would this give you pause? Are there any risks associated with moving out of "abundant" territory too quickly, or are gilt-backed reserves just going to seamlessly get replaced with repo-backed reserves?

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Key Takeaways from Fitch Ratings' ABS sector rating revision to Neutral: - Default rates holding up really well especially driven by better-than-expected non-prime sector - There has only been a mild deterioration in delinquency rates especially in German Auto - Significant performance worsening seems unlikely - UK credit card sector default rates have been revised down along with European Auto - Expect softening in the labor market both in the UK and Germany (less so in France, Italy and Spain) but assume a broadly flat unemployment rate in Europe - Expect further interest rate cuts across the board - Main topics going into 2025: a) Residual value for used cars has been declining across Europe (UK down 15% from peak April 2023) but still above historical norms b) improving recovery rates are not expect to continue c) battery electric vehicles residual values have been declined more rapidly than conventional vehicles as the primary market is fueled by tax incentives but the consumer secondary market is not deep enough yet d) non-prime borrowers performance has seen limited decline thanks to AI and more sophisticated underwriting models driven by Open Banking and leading to better default rate predictability; many of those borrowers are being pushed out towards BNPL #finance #lending #consumerlending #abs #bnpl #europe #rating

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Highlights from Intermediate Capital Group (ICG) trading statement for the three months ended 30 June 2024: 📈 AUM of $101bn 🗓️ Strong quarter, with $4.7bn of new capital 🤝 Elevated transaction activity compared to Q1 FY24 🔭 Expectations remain unchanged from our FY24 results 🌿 Marking a decade of responsible investing at ICG with the publication of our latest Sustainability and People Report #PrivateMarkets #PrivateCapital #Alternatives Capital at risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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A couple of (hopefully useful) thoughts from my presentation at QuantMinds on the potential of structural corporate liabilities pricing framework to bridge some gaps in factor investing. #QuantMinds #StructuralFactorInvesting https://lnkd.in/esK4GBWM

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PE - Hedge Funds Hit by Lack of PE Exits (and one way that PE firms can boost exits) Financial Times: https://lnkd.in/edACss_X FYI - one way to get more PE exits is for the PE fund to have a domain expertise GTM and have deep knowledge on how to increase the Revenue Growth of portfolio companies which boosts cash, profits and margins. --- #pe #privateequity #business

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This is what I would call delivering Alphas into a Passive product class. Through Active managing of model weightings and (slightly more regular) rebalancing, one can outperform. Let's liken to a gambler at the table. With good hands, you keep taking back your profits or even adjusting your stakes on the table. This is risk management of a thinking player. https://lnkd.in/gmvVq2xU

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Great chart from Damindu Jayaweera highlighting that investors are more than capable of finding the companies delivering strong growth and margins wherever they are listed. #LSE #NYSE #Nasdaq

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Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation My Thoughts about NVDA Nvidia closed below its 100-day moving average, suggesting a possible retest of the 200-day moving average and a potential break, leading to a correction down to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level (USD 76 – 77), this is the worst case scenario, and this will drag S&P 500 below 5000 mark! The recent decline is accompanied by rising volumes, indicating current dominance by sellers. I continue to view the USD 100 level as a robust support at the 38.2% Fib level. While observing how this unfolds, consider looking at the dips. #NVDA #Investing #Tech #Mag7 #CBQ

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A great flow chart from the UK Investment Association for those who want to understand which fund share class to select as 'primary'. In contrast to how some data providers default to the oldest, legacy share class, it seems very clear that one should perhaps choose a share class that is 'unbundled', and 'freely available to all investors... '. For the Marlborough Multi Cap Income Fund, this is the 'P' share class! This also covers c.99% of all fund units in issue so most representative of the returns delivered to the wider investor base.

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This week Financa onboarded a new investment banking client with a large US presence with the delivery of an Analyst programme in London. We covered the fundamental technical aspects, and we also had excellent discussion on the softer / commercial topics in M&A including: 👉 reviewing a business plan with a buy side hat on and the most effective graphical way to translate a numbers-heavy model into something which looks beautiful + simple for a PE client to understand 👉 thinking about what *really matters* when reviewing a business plan - in reality, very little probably does - what are the most fundamental things we need to grasp to start validating / proving out the plan, scoping out DD and de-risking it for PE... 👉 why M&A processes are run as they are (the nuances can seem strange to those new), and great Qs around what happens if during the granting of an exclusivity period the sell side sells to a different buyer Financa provides bespoke middle market M&A training to investment banks, corporate finance firms and private equity firms, and now boasts in excess of 40 clients. Trust me to deliver you world class advisors and investors. #corporatefinance #investmentbanking #privateequity

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I'm pleased we've launched our latest Alexa Capital report "Investing in the Energy Storage Revolution" offering a deep dive into this fast-growing sector. We've leveraged our insights from active private capital raising and M&A to help public markets investors understand dynamics. A few quick highlights: - The report analyses how by stacking storage revenue streams, investors can optimise profitability and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations - We also explore how growth in this market has been driven by technology advances, decreasing costs and robust policy support, and a perspective on the future outlook - We also provide an analysis of upstream and midstream value chain elements (incl. minerals extraction, processing, manufacturing and assembly), and downstream activities such as recycling and repurposing. Battery storage continues to be a critical building block of the energy transition, where Alexa Capital deploys industry insights and experience to mobilise capital solutions. #EnergyStorage #EnergyTransition #AlexaCapital #EnergyStorage #EnergyInnovation #CleanEnergy #Cleantech #ResearchReport #PublicMarkets #AlexaCapital

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I often refer to select specific investment options as “assets and earnings” plays where one gains exposure to tangible assets and growing profits at the same time. Whitbread (in the FTSE 100) ticks this box for me. The shares have retreated significantly from previous highs and thus have not been part of the increased buoyancy we have witnessed in the blue chip index in the recent past. This is Premier Inns in disguise with most of the business in the UK. Capital growth potential with a growing dividend not to mention always a possibly of takeover interest, an interesting opportunity perhaps. This is not investment advice and everyone must do their own research in determining suitability.

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UK outflow 2nd highest on record - looks very structural to me! Calastone data showing £1.1bn of outflows from UK equity funds in May, which is now 36 consecutive months of outflows. The improvement in the UK market recently has been driven by M&A and share buybacks which have offset the outflows. This is why it is essential to encourage UK investment in UK companies otherwise we will not have a smaller companies sector to the detriment of the UK economy, jobs and tax revenue. Core to necessary changes are UK pensions investing in UK companies, a UK ISA, a national wealth fund and abolishing stamp duty to ensure the UK is competitive. Rt Hon Rachel Reeves Darren Jones Jeremy Hunt Bim Afolami

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Caveat Emptor/Caveat Venditor Interesting 'reported' development with the putative sale of The Hundred by Elizabeth ammon in The Times yesterday. This follows some exaggerated/sensationalist commentary and financial information publicly shared by Lalit Modi over the last months. Over the coming weeks, as author of The Financial Review of ECB Finances in April 2023, I will write more fully on the many factors surrounding the sale of The Hundred. This is the first of many updates. What is clear is that Dwayne Spradlin’s Harvard Business Review (“Are you Solving the Right Problem?” September 2012) is as relevant to the game’s current governing body - the England and Wales Cricket Board ('ECB') - as it is to a bog-standard widget factory. Spradlin observes that “most companies aren’t sufficiently rigorous in defining the problem they’re attempting to solve and articulating why those issues are important”. Spradlin challenges the decisions taken, and how in hindsight alternative routes should have been made, or even that a decision once made, can concerningly address the wrong problem. The key, he eruditely highlights, stems from asking the right questions at the start so that the right problem is ultimately tackled. Which begs the question, who asks the right questions and scrutinises decisions made by the ECB and is the right problem ultimately being tackled? Cricket in the UK, at the county and recreational level, is essentially run by well-intentioned, heavily-overworked and stretched volunteer boards, which are transitory in nature and comply in general with Sport England best practice. Whilst ensuring freshness of tenure, there remains limited corporate memory for stakeholders, or owners of the ECB, to appropriately challenge and review how the ECB is operating and above all else for whom and indeed why historic and future decisions are made. So, in reality, probably no one at county, recreational, national or political level properly challenges and scrutinises what the ECB does, and no one who will be around to deal with the consequences of its actions. Vikram Banerjee, the ECB’s director of business operations in The Guardian on 30th May 2024 was quoted as saying the aim in the potential sale is “to seek partners with expertise to help us take the competition to the next level, while ensuring any investment benefits the whole game” alongside the chance “to engage new global strategic partners to help us unlock the future potential of the Hundred”.   This appears a potentially honest acceptance that the ECB, despite significant internal spend over the last decade, doesn’t have sufficient in-house expertise to create value. Hence the desire for other partners to invest now to share in future value creation and also providing near term salvation/liquidity for many cash strapped counties. I'll explore many financial and strategic factors from a buyers' and sellers' perspective. More to follow. #TheHundred #cricket #economicsofsport

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Thanks to Anna Edwards, Kriti Gupta and Guy Johnson from Bloomberg for today's discussion on markets into year-end. So far US equities have performed well in Q4, outperforming the RoW and especially Europe. But the underlying US macro regime has been changing from 'Goldilocks' to 'Reflation'. As a result bond yields have picked up sharply alongside equities, which is more challenging for multi-asset portfolios - risk-adjusted returns might be lower from here, especially with lingering policy uncertainty around US elections. #assetallocation #gsmacro https://lnkd.in/eamty4jy

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