Ulster University Economic Policy Centre

The Agricultural Economics Society of Ireland's Early Career Day 2025 will be held on 30th January in Teagasc Ashtown.  Call for abstracts is now open and will close on the 16th December. Find out more and sign up ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/ejvCcbPF

The December 2024 Outlook included research on changing demographics in #NorthernIreland to help inform wider policy debates and what decisions the NI Executive must make. NI has a demographic challenge facing its economy, although these challenges are faced by other regions within the UK, they are more acute within NI. Following NISRA and ONS population projection research, there is a low local population projection for NI between 2023 and 2050 of 3.6%, compared to the growth of the UK, 12.7% and Ireland, 19.9%. 🚸 A fall of 64,000 in the number of children and young people is projected to happen by 2050, reducing the number from 522,000 in 2023 to 458,000 in 2050. 58,000 of this reduction is projected to occur by 2040. Furthermore, the number preschool and primary school age children are projected to decrease the most during this decade, with numbers falling by 7,000 for ages 0-4 and 18,000 for ages 5-11 by 2030. 👵 👴 Meanwhile, the number of older people within NI is expected to increase by 157,000 by 2050 due to the improvements in health technologies and medication. The majority of the growth of older people is due to occur by 2040, 124,000. The 76-85 age group is expected to grow by 69k and those aged 85+ by 47k. These large increases will impact the demand for health and social care services. 💼 The working age population is projected to experience a decrease of 13,000 from the level of over 1.1 million. Those within the 20s -age band are expected to fall by 17,000 whereas those in the age band 61-66 are projected to increase by 16,000. Although this may seem like a positive, the challenges currently faced in recruiting in NI are likely to continue in the future. 📈 The ongoing tight labour market is driving employers to seek more open borders and greater access to migrant workers. The number of National Insurance Number (NINO) registrations in 2022 and 2023 were the highest from every year since 2007. However, the composition of migration patterns has changed post Brexit and COVID, from EU to now majority of NINO registrations coming from countries such as India and Ukraine. On top of these increases, the number of NINO registrations from RoI doubled since the pandemic to 2,000. 📊  These changes in the population projections will transform the demographics in NI, with the biggest impact expected in 2040.  Thus, resulting in policy solutions needing to be implemented surrounding education and workforce development, healthcare and social services, housing and infrastructure. Find out more in our Winter Outlook https://lnkd.in/eANEheCP

We are delighted to welcome Dr. Karen Bonner as our guest speaker at the #EMEEN Nationals Conference on Employment and Careers 2024 on 10th December. This conference is kindly sponsored by Invest Northern Ireland & Queen's Business School. About Dr Karen Bonner, Principle Economist UUEPC Dr. Bonner is a Senior Economist at the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (EPC) and a Research Associate of the Enterprise Research Centre, with extensive expertise in #economic research and policy analysis. On 10th December, she will share her #findings to inform delegates on ethnic minority workforce #contribution, economic activity and #population statistics to set the context for a meaningful conversations at the conference. 🎫 Secure you place (Last 10 places available): https://lnkd.in/eiW47wE2 Dr. Bonner’s PhD has also examined Northern Ireland’s #productivity gap with the UK, offering key insights into the roles of #exporting, innovation, and #public #financial support in driving firm-level productivity. Leading the firm-level strand of research at the EPC, Dr. Bonner’s work focuses on productivity, #innovation, and growth in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). She is also a UK team member for the #Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) project, the #world’s foremost study on entrepreneurial activity. We would like to once again thank Dr Bonner for accepting our invitation and we look forward to her presentation, insights and findings. #EMEEN #UUEPC #employment #careers #contribution #ethnicminority #NorthernIreland

Ulster University Economic Policy Centre's latest economic forecasts were released this week, check it out ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eANEheCP Gillian M. Todd Gowdy

The Northern Ireland economy is weathering a sustained fiscal storm as 2024 draws to a close, economists at Ulster University can reveal. Publishing the December 2024 Outlook, the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre warns that lower growth is forecasted despite a relatively strong start to 2024. Read more: https://ow.ly/pG2850Uk8kH #WeAreUU

Yesterday Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Director, Gareth Hetherington MBE and Principal Economist Dr Karen Bonner presented evidence to Committee for the Economy on job creation and business dynamism in Northern Ireland from previous research by UUEPC. Find out more about this research below ⤵️ Business Dynamism in Northern Ireland ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/e4zB_D9M Job Creation in Northern Ireland Firms ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/enAxhiVg

🗞️ Commenting on the release of today's economic forecasts, Dr Myles Patton, Principal Economist, said:  "Despite considerable economic turbulence, the Northern Ireland economy has displayed robust strength and performed relatively well in 2024, largely due to the local labour market with increasing workforce jobs underpinned by expansion in the professional services, manufacturing, and health sectors." "Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow, but if the NI Executive make the right economic-focused investment decisions, recovery can be expected in the medium and longer term.” ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dz7cS2DW

📢 This morning Ulster University Economic Policy Centre have published their December 2024 Outlook for #NorthernIreland. The Outlook highlights NI’s employment growth in the year to date has been strong, with the projection for jobs growth reaching 1.5% for 2024. Further growth is expected in the medium to long term but at a slower rate reflecting the combined impact of higher taxes and labour market constraints. In terms of jobs, UUEPC estimate that under a Baseline scenario, in which the employment rate increases but remains below that of the UK, there could be an increase of 56,400 jobs to 2033, with strong job growth anticipated in the Health and Social Care and ICT sectors. However, under an Upper scenario this could reach 88,700 with particular growth in Professional Services and Construction. The Outlook also analyses sub sectoral drivers of job growth and the demographic challenge facing NI. Access the Outlook here ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/dqm4NJxd

Principal Economist, Dr Karen Bonner will be presenting at EMEEN - Ethnic Minority Employment, Entrepreneurship & Business Support Network's conference next week on the Ethic Minority Workforce Contribution to the #NorthernIreland economy being held at Invest Northern Ireland. You can register here ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/eiW47wE2

UUEPC Director, Gareth Hetherington MBE has written an article on what a second Trump presidency means for the rest of the world, discussing Ukraine, the Middle East and tariffs. Available to read on our website ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/eKAMMdaQ Article first appeared in The Irish News on 25th November 2024.