Progressive

The Market Call: Week ending 20/12/2024 - Is the Trump Trade over and will Xi attend Donald's party? https://lnkd.in/e8PPcR8k In this final podcast of 2024 Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans give us a quick round-up of global market news and offer listeners their best wishes for the festive season. They discuss Jay Powell spoiling the Santa Rally, indicating that rates might not fall as far as he previously said, sending the US $ soaring and risk assets into a tailspin. Is this the end of the Trump Trade? Maybe, and perhaps not a bad thing for the UK market. The DXY index is the gauge of how this might play out. In the UK, the 10-year gilt yields are at levels not previously seen for over 20 years, surpassing the Truss tantrum level of two years ago. Higher inflation is partly driven by higher wage settlements, which unsurprisingly led to the BOE decision to keep rates on hold this month. Stubborn inflation is a feature of both sides of the Atlantic. In other news, Japan kept its rates on hold, and China needs to stimulate further but is playing a waiting game. Putin suggests he is prepared to meet Trump, and the incoming US administration has shown it is prepared to play hardball over the debt ceiling brinkmanship, threatening to close the government down over the holiday break. In company news, Gareth discusses a major contract win for Idox, and Petro Matad's progress and improving outlook for 2025. Jeremy shares an update on his painful investment in Artisanal Spirits and Gareth suggests how the company might crystallise some of its unrealised value. Watch out for President Xi bringing a premium bottle of malt whisky for Donald Trump as his inauguration present next month!

Read Jeremy McKeown's latest HyperNormalTimes: Thinking the Unthinkable https://lnkd.in/dxZhrUXq In a world where increasingly we are being forced to think of the previously unthinkable, Jeremy asks whether perhaps even the unconventional Michael Saylor might be right? 'With MSTR in the #NASDAQ100, pursuing a strategy likely to be adopted by the US government, we can think the unthinkable about our money and the risks involved in the base layer of our financial system, at least for now.' #Bitcoin #BitcoinETFs #QuantumComputing #CryptoNews

JUST RELEASED - Jeremy McKeown's 'In the Company of Mavericks': Long Short Equity Management with Richard Stuckey of Ennismore https://lnkd.in/e7e3eV5w Have you ever wondered how fund managers deliver a successful long-short strategy?   David De Sousa Seaman of Alpha Cygni Investment Management recently joined Jeremy McKeown for a conversation with Richard Stuckey, the manager of the Ennismore Global Equity Fund's Global Smaller Companies Fund, about managing such a strategy in smaller global companies. Richard discusses different approaches to shorting equities and how they involve different approaches to risk management at the stock and portfolio levels. He outlines a couple of examples of stocks he and his team have successfully shorted that turned out to be deceptions. He then discusses two long positions he recently added to his portfolio. Richard talks about the geographic spread of his fund and how investors might think about market inefficiency driven by the rise of the mega-cap tech stocks, passive investment and meme-driven markets. And… importantly, how to adapt investment strategy in a market that can remain inefficient for a long time. Listen to the full episode for a fascinating conversation about the art of managing an absolute return strategy in a volatile and illiquid asset class.

The Market Call: Week Ending 13/12/2024 - The world re-aligns & the FTSE 100 loses Ashtead but gains Games Workshop https://lnkd.in/eBFJwu4w This week, Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the emerging new world order. With roaring risk assets on Wall Street, it is all about the Trump trade for markets. Investors seem to have assumed that Musk's DOGE project has already caused the deficit to disappear. This looks overly optimistic. China signals that its leadership is prepared to accept a lower yuan to counter the prospect of higher tariffs. In the UK the new Labour government is enacting its own version of DOGE-lite in the UK, with the prime minister criticising Whitehall this week and the UK GDP data shows that the growth rate is slowing. In UK company news: The pair discuss updates from housing beneficiaries Van Elle (VANL) and Springfield Properties (SPR), and as Ashtead Group Plc (AHT) exits the FTSE100, having worked its way up from near extinction 30 years ago, Games Workshop (GAW) appears for the first time (becoming a global content creator and agreeing a landmark TV and film deal with Amazon). Alphawave Semi (AWE) launched a convertible bond issue and @S&U (SUS) highlighted the motor finance industry's regulatory and legal issues, while Close Brothers (CBG) and others saw large intraday price moves as the courts gave the plaintiffs leave to appeal against the FCA allegations the industry faces. Next week: Interest rates decisions will be made in the US, the UK, and Japan. The BoJ probably retains the largest element of surprise. #Trump2024 #LSE #investing #stockmarkets

Podcast: Talking Tech - Episode 13 🎧Listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eBSUqFun George O'Connor and Ian Robertson discuss recent results and look at more detail at Oxford Metrics and FD Technologies. Oxford Metrics (OMG) has faced head winds as it returns to ‘normal’ after the pandemic and supply chain issues. But it also now has the opportunity in smart manufacturing. Historically Oxford Metrics has had strong positions in relatively small global markets, the move into smart manufacturing offers the opportunity to build a significantly bigger business in an application that is at a technological tipping point. A classic growth hardware and electronics story that needs good acquisitions and good execution. FD Technologies (FDP) is focusing down upon its KX database business. The market looks to have picked up on the Total Addressable Market not the Serviceable Obtainable Market. Huge difference, and one that the management themselves don’t seem to have a grip on yet. On top of that its investors (or management) could well be killing the hypothetical golden goose. If you want companies with growth valuations you have to give them the funds to drive the growth. The valuation suggests huge market opportunity, and there clearly is a significant one. However, the limited cash allocated after the post disposal distributions to drive sales suggests nothing of the sort. Tens of millions of sales and marketing will deliver exactly that in terms of revenues. Something’s got to give. #tech #investing

Read Jeremy McKeown's HyperNormalTimes: The Consequences of Occupying Mars Is SpaceX the 21st Century Dutch East India Company? Jeremy does some star gazing and speculates on the future of the space economy. He looks at the implications of Elon Musk's 'Occupy Mars' movement, the opportunities in orbital travel and transport that his Starship provides and the surging demand for orbital connectivity using his Starlink technology. With SpaceX's overall mission to revolutionise space technology and enable people to live on other planets, Jeremy considers the opportunities for space manufacturing, chemical and industrial processing, the operation of data centres, solar power generation, and the mining of resources. Finally, drawing comparisons to The Dutch East India Company, he asks how the monopoly space economy opportunity of SpaceX can be valued? Read more: https://lnkd.in/eYg3-N_K #SpaceX #ElonMusk #Trump

The Market Call: Week ending 06/12/2024 - Geopolitical disarray...and Trump hasn't even started yet🎧https://lnkd.in/eBSkepUq This week Jeremy and Gareth talk about the surprise power vacuums in both France and South Korea, with Europe and Asia needing stability and cohesion more than ever, as Trump looms. Jeremy runs through the pros and cons of a Trump presidency for the economy, and the UK still seems a safe (and cheap) place for global investors to park some capital. Stock news from Progressive clients in the form of Oxford Metrics (OMG) and SDI Group (SDI), both of which are battling troublesome end-markets, but in each case with a degree of medium-term optimism. Today will have delivered US jobs data, and next week the highlights are US inflation and UK GDP.

Talking Tech: “Exit, pursued by a Bear” In this edition George O'Connor looks at tech sector TSR, best & worse performing companies, Valuation, the 'US and them' valuation gap, Indices, IPO performance, tech spending, tech salary rates and employment trends. The ‘numbers’ are mostly of a recovery bent and suggest an ameliorating view into 2025. Read more: https://lnkd.in/g7ZuHT-H

Read Jeremy McKeown's HyperNormalTimes: The Milei Revolution - Long Live Freedom, Dammit! Jeremy recently spent a few days in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Emerging market fund managers happily allocate to Brazil (representing about 5% of MSCI’s benchmark emerging markets index), but in contrast they are wary of investing in Argentina, which does not qualify for MSCI emerging markets inclusion. Jeremy discusses how this happened and tries to understand the significance and durability of the Javier Milei presidency and what it might mean. Read his initial thoughts: https://lnkd.in/eSVZ_h8W

The Market Call: Week ending 29/11/2024 - Giving Thanks in Mar-a-Lago as Trump renegotiates the world 🎧https://lnkd.in/eEUHRdb3 This week Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans talk through the goings-on in the USA, as Trump's cabinet takes shape - with some of the picks being less outlandish than you might think. Trump's cheap energy policy ironically raises natural gas prices in the short term, and as ever, don't forget Japan... The UK has been busy, with four Progressive clients ( Idox IDOX, Severfield SFR, STV Group STVG and IG Design IGR) delivering news over the week, along with a flurry of results and trading updates. Next week is "jobs week" - a couple of PMI Survey datapoints (China and the USA) plus US non-farm payrolls which are due on Friday.