Oxford Analytica (part of FiscalNote)

The fourth edition of our LinkedIn newsletter is out! This month, we ask how organizations can achieve net-zero when the path to a net-zero economy is paved with uncertainties. Read our article to find out 👇 And don’t forget to sign up to Oxford Analytica Insights, to get each edition directly to your inbox! #energytransition #netzero

Discontent will drive diverse outcomes in Africa. Despite a record number of power transitions, democracy in Africa still faces challenges. Impacts: 👉 Former opposition parties now in government may struggle to retain popularity as cost-of-living and governance challenges persist. 👉 Discontent towards authoritarian governments may fuel growing popular unrest, which in turn may spur deepening repression. 👉 Others activists may seek to emulate the success of Mozambique’s ‘passive’ protests, in an effort to limit exposure to repression. 👉 Moments of social, economic or political adversity may act as a focal point for latent discontent to manifest in anti-government action. Find out more by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook – a fortnightly analysis of key global issues, featuring insights from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView, and delivered direct to your inbox: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #Africa #Africademocracy #Africaelections #planning2025 #geopolitics

The collapse of the Assad regime has far-reaching consequences for the Middle East. What lies ahead across the region? In this edition of the Geopolitical Outlook, brought to you by FiscalNote Global Intelligence… 👉 Oxford Analytica explores the uncertain outlook for Syria itself. 👉 Dragonfly focuses on the security implications for Turkiye. 👉 And FrontierView analyses the business implications for major economies across MENA. Subscribe to our Geopolitical Outlook now and receive this edition – followed by timely analysis of key global issues, delivered to your inbox every fortnight: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #geopoliticaloutlook #MENA #MiddleEast #Syria #Assad #planning2025

The incoming Trump administration seeks to shrink US bilateral trade deficits and boost surpluses, but notably improving the US terms of trade will be tricky. Impacts: ➡ Political instability in Germany and France will make it harder to agree an EU-wide response to US tariffs and the economic fallout. ➡ US public debt to GDP is approaching the highs of the 1940s and the budget deficit is near-7% of GDP, which will worry credit ratings agencies. ➡ Higher US tariffs would especially hit the capital goods and consumer products sectors; major Asian states are key to these supply chains. Stay ahead of the issues that matter by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook – a fortnightly analysis of key global issues, featuring insights from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #UStrade #tradetariffs #Trumpadministration #USeconomy #globaltrade #geopolitics

*And the winner is…?* – Yes, the news you've all all been waiting for. Congratulations to Jonathan Naish for winning the darts competition at our Oxford office's Christmas social last week!! View the winning shot and revel in the glory of the moment from our evening of festive fun and games, rounding off a fantastic 2024 🎯🏆🥳

By assembling a ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers to export oil, Russia has been able to reduce the impact of G7 sanctions. Western powers have tightened measures designed to reduce Russia’s use of a shadow fleet to export oil, but such efforts have clear limits. What next: ➡ Russia will continue to utilise and expand its shadow fleet and the network of associated overseas companies with opaque ownership to boost oil exports and, in the future, liquified natural gas (LNG) sales.  ➡ Sanctioning powers will seek new ways to enforce sanctions against those engaged in the fleet’s activities.  ➡ Tighter enforcement of sanctions will disrupt Russia’s oil exports and raise costs but will not significantly reduce the volumes shipped. Read our full analysis of Russia’s shadow fleet, and then sign up for your free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief 👉: https://lnkd.in/e4Qcj-86 #Russia #Russiashadowfleet #Russiaoilexports #globaloilsupply #Russiasanctions #geopolitics

Our Oxford office had fun at the Christmas social last week at Flight Club! 🎯🎄 The games were so much fun and the energy was contagious. It was great to see everyone enjoying themselves. Can't wait for the next team event! 🎉🍹

Over the past weeks, clients have turned to FiscalNote Copilot for Global Intelligence with hundreds of questions about geopolitical tensions, economic shifts, and emerging risks—receiving comprehensive answers from our AI assistant. Curious about what Copilot can do for you? Try it free for seven days! 🌍 Simply ask your geopolitical question and get instant, exclusive insights curated from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView reports — always current and constantly updated. Start your free trial now: https://lnkd.in/eKr-2MnG #geopolitics #copilot

A night to remember! A huge thank you to everyone who joined us at our Client Winter Social in London on Wednesday evening. It was a joy to celebrate the end of the year with our clients, partners and friends, alongside our teams from Dragonfly and FrontierView. Here’s to an even brighter year ahead!

Poland will seek a greater role in European defense. Warsaw’s defense spending has surged over the past few years. Impacts: ➡ The rapidly expanding number of military personnel, who enjoy many post-retirement benefits, could put a strain on government finances. ➡ Warsaw will build up its domestic defense industry through localisation and joint production of arms with foreign partners such as Seoul. ➡ Defense cooperation between members of NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, will likely increase. ➡ The upcoming Polish EU presidency will prioritise common defense and security, as well as joint EU funding for defense. Receive regular insights into the latest developments by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook - a fortnightly summary of key intelligence reports, brought to you by FiscalNote Global Intelligence, and featuring analysis from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #Polanddefense #PolandEU #Europedefensefunding #Balticstates #NATO #geopolitics