Catch up with Mark Corver talking about our latest dataHE Times Higher Education analysis from the past week: The UUK blueprint is out - prompting a rare trip to the 2040s for our forecast models https://lnkd.in/erpBfxhF (if you are working with us on forecasts and want to see 2040 just ask) "Fees to rise with inflation" - good news? Not entirely https://lnkd.in/eiXV-kUf But disaster in young demand has been avoided https://lnkd.in/euJ7HAPt And this means there is still some 50k+in future UK entrant growth by 2030, more for 18 year olds. https://lnkd.in/eZMMkvd3 Is sharply reducing the share of GDP spent on producing graduates the best way to a competitive future workforce? https://lnkd.in/enNYZAE4 Are UK FT UG funding levels unusually low? We think yes, but there are differing views - https://lnkd.in/eSAjskAj
dataHE
Business Consulting and Services
Bristol, England 1,301 followers
We help universities to use data better
About us
We help Universities use data better, offering a step change in their performance in the UK Higher Education market by rapidly positioning them to profit from modern data-led practices and strategy. Recruitment strategy . Portfolio Strategy. Data Science capability.
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http://www.datahe.uk
External link for dataHE
- Industry
- Business Consulting and Services
- Company size
- 2-10 employees
- Headquarters
- Bristol, England
- Type
- Privately Held
- Founded
- 2017
- Specialties
- data science, Higher Education, Marketing Strategy, and Business Strategy
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Employees at dataHE
Updates
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Our briefing session for the sector this covered a roller-coaster 2024 cycle with demand down but entry up and unprecedented variation between different segments layered on top of a deep funding crisis. But regardless of how things have turned out for you you there data can help you respond efficiently and we've put some examples for different settings on this slide. We're working with all types of universities and are always happy to see if we can help - you can contact us here - https://datahe.uk/contact/
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Its been a big week at dataHE helping universities understand their outcomes in the light of the latest UCAS and ONS data releases. A couple of important topics coming out of these this week Young men are now 17 years behind women in university entry chances - writes Mark Corver from our modelling on the latest data https://lnkd.in/eihU2_V5 And a reminder of how difficult it is running a university at the moment - the price increases in just the 31 days in August were enough to wipe out most of the real income benefit of the increase in UCAS intakes this year. More from Mark Corver here: https://lnkd.in/eTC3q-Q4
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Some of our recent analysis for universities via Mark Corver, its been a complex cycle in the data, challenging for many. Sometimes the most important thing is the most important thing: we're expecting record numbers of young UK students to start this year https://lnkd.in/e8nKzEqR But the real funding for each one has reached "crunch" point: https://lnkd.in/evCMtqtF Challenges really mounting up for lower tariff providers: https://lnkd.in/esSrTd22 In part because the data for this cycle is all about divergence: https://lnkd.in/ese5H8hV
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As the UUK conference looks at the financial "crunch" for universities we use the latest UCAS figures to put a number on it - about £3 billion. https://lnkd.in/evCMtqtF
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How can universities have experienced both the second strongest ever and second weakest ever Clearing period? Mark Corver covers our latest dataHE Times Higher Education analysis of the UCAS university admissions data. It is the wide range of outcomes that we think are going to be the focus over the coming months. https://lnkd.in/e7BJwHPT
As we tick over into September it is becoming clear that we have had an unusual recruitment environment for #ukuniversities since results a couple of weeks ago. Both very strong and very weak at the same time, and with exceptionally variable outcomes depending on who you are. A few tables from our recent analysis to help make sense of this: (1) At results day recruitment looked historically strong, especially UK 18 year olds, driven by higher tariff choosing to confirm more. Older UK were weak, but stable international numbers had the sector up 2.6%, +11,000. (2) Then there is the unusual post-results period. Activity through Clearing has been high, 47,500 in Mainscheme Clearing – second only to last year; and 13,500 Direct to Clearing, second only to the exceptional 2020 pandemic-affected year. But the increase in placed students over this period – 14.2%, 62,000 overall – is the second lowest on record. This is a mix of more switching, faster confirmation and in some places probably weaker post results recruitment – all showing up in increases in firm/insurance being much lower than usual. Overall post-results recruitment has been at about 80% of normal levels, less for older UK students and medium/lower tariff providers. So the opportunity to recover from any deficits against targets at results has been limited. (3) So at day 15 we have lost over half of that results day advantage : now just +1.1% (5,000). But the effect of this cycle over the coming months is likely to be the high differentiation in outcomes between different cells, young and old, high / medium / low tariff, parts of the UK, and provider country. Its almost everywhere you look - even within the relatively strong results from the EU is a real mixture of outcomes ( with the Ireland to NI flow dominating), and the UK patterns are variable even for 18 year olds across different groups. We are already running our dataHE Times Higher Education statistical models projecting forward from these latest data to end of cycle, and next few years to inform universities as they turn to assessing this cycle and recalibrating targets. It is so valuable that we can analyse the outcomes in such detail and real time and a big thanks to UCAS for their work in providing the daily clearing data every day over the past couple of weeks – it is a really good model of transparency and public value.
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The FT UG international market has not collapsed this year, but it is weaker and more complex. Mark Corver pulls out a few key results on the latest data here: https://lnkd.in/esUCzc2q Our dataHE Times Higher Education team are already working on the new data to recalculate international demand patterns and risk profiles, both UG and PGT, to support universities this Autumn.
Concern about #internationalstudent recruitment has been high this admissions cycle. Early results show the FT UG market is more likely shifting – to younger entrants, to lower risk and diversification - rather than collapsing. Some snippets from our ongoing dataHE Times Higher Education analysis looking of the consistent ‘Not EU’ subset in the most recent (day 8) data. Overall recruitment of Not EU through UCAS is slightly down. But not by much and – importantly – not for young. Young students are more important to the strategic picture as it is ‘fresh’ demand unaffected by what previous cohorts have done and 17/18 year olds are up this year (unlike last year) and setting a new record for this point. Post-results recruitment has become relatively less important through time. Numbers placed through main scheme Clearing are up, though as a a proportion of all applicants continues to fall. Direct to Clearing is not a major route for Not EU, but it is interesting as the most recent indicator on new demand and this is up again to a new record (same true for 17/18). Looking at large source countries four of the largest sources are down modestly (2-6%)% - China, India, HK, Malaysia - so the prop of double digit increases here has gone. There is a notable cluster of growth on countries we have been recommending for their more stable supply trajectories – (e.g. Candada and UAE - https://lnkd.in/ew99q3q3). The forecast increase in recruitment from Turkey (see https://lnkd.in/eucXcynP) has also materialised. All of these patterns are suggestive of diversification and risk profile management being an objective of some universities. UCAS is not all FT UG international recruitment, but it is an important indicator, and the picture here is better than some feared, albeit with a more complex market taking shape. Concerns will remain on the overall growth dynamic fading, provider-level exposure to particularly countries (especially lower tariff), and the fact that these strong FT UG figures means that PGT must be notably weak this year to generate the observed visa application patterns.
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We're finding many universities are reporting Clearing being harder to understand - it is because it is unusually complex this year. Find some of our latest analysis from @markcorver below. Growing signs of recruitment stress for some. https://lnkd.in/eNaE-YJb A record setting week of Clearing activity, why it is not helping as much as you would expect, and where to look if you need more students. https://lnkd.in/e_SGbTkf The other pressure point - inflation. Our latest analysis on the effect on universities, including a surprise return for the 1970s. https://lnkd.in/ecShJCAv What happened on the first day of Clearing? https://lnkd.in/eUN-wrw2 Astonishing rebound in success rates for young applicants on results day. https://lnkd.in/ey9KA_-k Grades - back to bring (almost) https://lnkd.in/ejXETuyA
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All smiles from Stefan Johansen Jason Streets Lucia Costantini Joseph Oliver busy working through a very interesting set of university entry data yesterday. Most of the day goes into supporting our universities directly with their data. In case you missed them here our our dataHE Times Higher Education sector analysis updates for results: A level grades. A welcome return to stability. But they have settled at a higher level than before. Mark Corver looks at what that means for university applicants. https://lnkd.in/ejXETuyA University entry. Mark Corver pulls out the three key points about the stunning supply-led recovery in UK 18 entry this year. https://lnkd.in/ey9KA_-k
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Some updates from our dataHE Times Higher Education analysis helping to set the scene in data ahead of a big results day for universities this week: The Guardian forecasts a better results day for applicants - but is there any evidence? Yes. https://lnkd.in/euaJYd63 International student recruitment this year? Too close to call. https://lnkd.in/eyAniFRr How the decline in unconditional offers has left English young people with a high stakes results period again. https://lnkd.in/encgSJZp A tough job for universities this week as young offer holders at record high (just) https://lnkd.in/eMJsCB4t Media coverage of the financial pressures on universities and what the data says strategic calculations on falling demand https://lnkd.in/eisNsDPM
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