Auxilione

With the Ofgem January 2025 Price Cap calculation period now closed, we forecast an expectation of around £1,732 to be announced in the coming weeks - this is an increase to the current October cap of £1,717 (around a 1% increase). The higher amount is caused by the volatility of wholesale costs in recent weeks which remain at an elevated level. https://lnkd.in/eJDSuytb

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 15/11/2024 Whilst flows from Russia towards Europe through Ukraine are due to stop at the end of the year, the fear of that gas stopping earlier than planned worried the market considerably yesterday as it pushed to yet new highs. As a result of OMV winning an award of around €230m in their dispute with Gazprom Export this may be offset by withholding payment due for gas already delivered in recent weeks – understood to be due on 20th November. If that payment is withheld the market is concerned that Gazprom may withhold further deliveries from as early as 21st November. This comes at a time when the market is already concerned about supplies beyond the expiry of the transit deal but with temperatures expected to drop next week, this would come at a time of high demand. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.22 (from €43.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 116.69p (from 110.78p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (338) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.9mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €44 (vs €46 and €42) Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 107p (vs 111p and 103p) UK Gas NBP spot 115p (from 113p) UK Power Base spot £99 (from £106) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£91) and Front Season at £83 (£79). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.79 ($2.98) and JKM is at $13.57 ($13.56) with TTF Equiv of $14.31 ($13.54). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 14/11/2024 A small sigh of relief seen in yesterdays session as prices didn’t rise any further and showed a small downside to the previous days settlement. Slovakia confirmed that it has signed what it referred to as a ‘short term pilot’ deal to receive gas from Azerbaijan to compensate for the loss of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine which expires at the end of the year. It is believed Germany has instructed its ports to reject Russian LNG cargoes, assumingly with immediate effect. Colder temperatures are still expected next week which will hold nerves in the market. Today is the final day of the Ofgem price cap calculation period for the January cap period. We expect to see a small increase to the current October cap of around 1%. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.67 (from €44.26) and the NBP Front Month contract at 110.78p (from 112.43p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm (345) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.4mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, UP €2 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €42 (vs €44 and €43) Curve NBP Front Month 111p, Front Season 103p (vs 112p and 104p) UK Gas NBP spot 113p (from 109p) UK Power Base spot £106 (from £112) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£92) and Front Season at £79 (£80). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €66 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.98 ($2.91) and JKM is at $13.56 ($13.57) with TTF Equiv of $13.54 ($13.75). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 13/11/2024 Markets continued to push higher still yesterday. Revised temperature forecasts for the week ahead show colder days to be expected in the coming week which will push heating demand. As gas is still making up the main input to power generation, this is also pushing power prices with them. The front month contracts have not been this high for a year, last seen in November 2023. In the months that followed prices fell by half, but that was shortly (and partly due) to the energy crisis price levels which were considerably higher still. The market is in a very different place once again this winter, and there remains plenty of various and global concerns to hold prices firm. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.26 (from €43.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.43p (from 110.56p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm (344) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €43 (vs €44 and €42) Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 104p (vs 111p and 103p) UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 111p) UK Power Base spot £112 (from £106) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£92) and Front Season at £80 (£80). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.91 ($2.92) and JKM is at $13.57 ($13.55) with TTF Equiv of $13.75 ($13.66). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 13/11/2024 Markets continued to push higher still yesterday. Revised temperature forecasts for the week ahead show colder days to be expected in the coming week which will push heating demand. As gas is still making up the main input to power generation, this is also pushing power prices with them. The front month contracts have not been this high for a year, last seen in November 2023. In the months that followed prices fell by half, but that was shortly (and partly due) to the energy crisis price levels which were considerably higher still. The market is in a very different place once again this winter, and there remains plenty of various and global concerns to hold prices firm. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.26 (from €43.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.43p (from 110.56p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm (344) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €43 (vs €44 and €42) Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 104p (vs 111p and 103p) UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 111p) UK Power Base spot £112 (from £106) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£92) and Front Season at £80 (£80). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.91 ($2.92) and JKM is at $13.57 ($13.55) with TTF Equiv of $13.75 ($13.66). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 12/11/2024 Prices pushed higher still, reaching impressive levels not seen for some time, in yesterdays session to get the week underway. This follows Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico which has halted plenty of oil and gas production in the area in recent days That said, the TTF sits firmly above €40 for the next year whilst the UKs NBP holds £1 for the same period with the near term prices holding most firm showing this is not a short term concern and underlying concerns around wider global events are still present. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.73 (from €42.41) and the NBP Front Month contract at 110.56p (from 107.41p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm (346) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.2mcm (41.9) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.37% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €44, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €44, Front Season €42 (vs €44 and €41) Curve NBP Front Month 111p, Front Season 103p (vs 107p and 100p) UK Gas NBP spot 111p (from 104p) UK Power Base spot £106 (from £96) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£90) and Front Season at £80 (£78). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($74) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.92 ($2.67) and JKM is at $13.55 ($13.55) with TTF Equiv of $13.66 ($13.34). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 11/11/2024 The end of last week saw gas prices push even higher to hold at their highest levels seen for some time. Revised colder temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead, now showing below seasonal normal levels for the remainder of the year, will have helped the bulls keep the market levels firm. The Norwegian output appears back to full strength after several unplanned outages in recent weeks as gas stocks start to decline with withdrawals are now in full swing. Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.41 (from €41.28) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.41p (from 104.32p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (332) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.9mcm (41.0) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €42 and €40) Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 100p (vs 104p and 98p) UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 104p) UK Power Base spot £96 (from £97) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £90 (£87) and Front Season at £78 (£76). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($76) and EUAs are at €68 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.69) and JKM is at $13.55 ($13.50) with TTF Equiv of $13.34 ($13.07). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

With just a week left of the Ofgem domestic Price Cap calculation period for the upcoming January cap, it seems we are going to see a small increase compared to the current October cap. Our forecast is currently very close to £1,730 as a 'headline rate', compared to the current £1,717 - representing less than a 1% increase. The energy wholesale costs have remained extremely volatile and have been rising in recent weeks, as shown in the graph, and this of course feeds directly into the price cap calculation. Wholesale costs currently make up a little over 40% of the price cap. This will mean very small changes to the current standing charge and unit rate values, but those hoping for a reduction (as some were predicting/hoping for some weeks ago) are likely to be very disappointed. Remember the 'headline rate' as we call it is simply the average price a 'typical' customer spend over the course of a year if paying by direct debit. It is not reflective of your specific circumstances. As always, it is important to look at the specific standing charge and unit rate values for your specific circumstances to understanding the impact for your household. These vary by region and payment type. The actual cost you will incur for your energy will of course depend on your consumption.

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 08/11/2024 Energy markets saw an uptick again in yesterdays session as colder temperatures are expected to creep in over the coming days which will start to draw in heating demand. All eyes still remain on what changes President Elect Trump will make, or start discussing making, on policies that may effect energy prices – whether that be impacts to LNG output or his intent to bring ongoing global conflicts to an end. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.28 (from €40.39) and the NBP Front Month contract at 104.32p (from 101.84p). Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm (333) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.0mcm (41.1) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.43% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €40 (vs €41 and €39) Curve NBP Front Month 104p, Front Season 98p (vs 102p and 95p) UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 104p) UK Power Base spot £97 (from £97) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£85) and Front Season at £76 (£75). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($75) and EUAs are at €66 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.69 ($2.75) and JKM is at $13.50 ($13.50) with TTF Equiv of $13.07 ($12.71). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 07/11/2024 The markets in general (even wider than energy) appeared to like the US election result as it was confirmed that Donald Trump would serve as the US President for a second time. Energy markets saw a small decline, but was hardly noticeable by the end of the day. Temperature forecasts into next week have been revised downwards, just below seasonal normal and gas storage is now well into withdrawal mode after holding just above 95% for a while is now slowly reducing. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.39 (from €40.49) and the NBP Front Month contract at 101.84p (from 102.69p). Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm (334) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.1mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.75% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, UP €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €39) Curve NBP Front Month 102p, Front Season 95p (vs 103p and 96p) UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 102p) UK Power Base spot £97 (from £127) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£86) and Front Season at £75 (£75). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($76) and EUAs are at €64 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.75 ($2.67) and JKM is at $13.50 ($13.54) with TTF Equiv of $12.71 ($12.97). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar