Ziad Haider

SE Asia Prepares Differently for Trump and Harris Governments and businesses across SE Asia prepare very differently for the alternate outcomes of the US presidential election. While a Harris Administration will maintain a more regional approach to the countries of ASEAN, such as through IPEF, a Trump 2.0 return an America First, bilateral approach to the region. Trump views the size of the bilateral trade deficit on how to approach trade, as Deborah Elms points out in her latest analysis. Countries with large merchandise trade deficits with the US were assumed to be using inappropriate trade practices. This will cause concern for markets such as Malaysia and Vietnam who will face a different set of challenges under Trump than they do under Biden. Great to be invited by the US-ASEAN Business Council Ted Osius, Ambassador (ret.) Brian McFeeters for a closed door session with the USABC team on the US election, what's happening and why, and what may come next. IBP Angga A. Nugraheni Widia Utami Tina Jamaluddin Florina Vistal Mario Masaya Celine Kusnadi Sarah L.

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My latest essay: A New Narrative for the Korean Peninsula: Unifying Korea: A New Strategy for Dealing with Kim Jong Un https://lnkd.in/egJNUpme

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Is China more or less likely to invade Taiwan in Trump wins? With Beijing's increasing pressure for unification with Taiwan remaining committed to the status quo, a question I get at every one of my election analysis event on the Harris v Trump is a version of the above. It is a question I ask myself whenever I speak privately with current and former government officials in the region. In "How would the Trump or Harris administration approach Taiwan?", Ryan Hass and Richard Bush The Brookings Institution provide an excellent framing in responding to a question requiring a non-existent crystal ball. They note that Trump has shown skepticism about supporting Taiwan, viewing foreign policy through a transactional lens but also pointing out Trump 1.0 was proactive in security support (less so in economic relations). They think Harris would emphasize a more systematic foreign policy, focusing on upholding global principles and strengthening alliances. Her approach to Taiwan would likely continue the Biden administration's policies, emphasizing security commitments and global cooperation.  https://lnkd.in/gXbdXw86

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Here's my most recent interview with VOA on US-South Korea relations in Trump's second term, in which I predict the US will renegotiate its defense cost sharing agreement with South Korea: November 8, 2024 Voice of America “North Korea May Not be a Priority in Trump’s Second Term… U.S.-South Korea Relations Could Face Increased Unpredictability.” Experts predict that President-elect Donald Trump may take a different approach toward North Korea in his second term. Observers anticipate increased unpredictability in U.S.-South Korea relations, with Trump likely to demand more burden-sharing and participation from South Korea as an ally. Report by Cho Sang-jin: "Pressure for Renegotiating Defense Cost-Sharing Will Intensify" Meanwhile, experts predict that if Trump’s second term begins, there will be stronger pressure on South Korea, including renegotiation of defense cost-sharing. Thomas Cynkin, a former State Department official and Policy Director at the R Street Institute, stated in a video call with VOA that the likelihood is very high that the U.S. will terminate the recent defense cost-sharing agreement with South Korea once the Trump administration begins its second term: Cynkin: “I would almost be willing to put money on the U.S. tearing up the recently negotiated defense cost sharing agreement, which wasn't particularly strong from the US interest perspective as you and I have discussed previously. I would be surprised, in fact, if that wasn't torn up almost immediately, even if it was a better agreement…President Trump might think he could get a better deal and it's not that great an agreement. I would almost predict that that would be torn up in terms of broader U.S.-Republic of Korea relations. I think it'll be really incumbent on President Yoon to make a rapid overture to President Trump and make sure he understands that this is not a continuation of the Moon Administration.” Cynkin pointed out that President-elect Trump would likely view the current defense cost-sharing agreement as unfavorable from a U.S. interest perspective.

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9/9/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3zeiRC5 1. Decade After the UN COI Report: Michael Kirby on North Korea's Human Rights Landscape (please read my comments) 2. State Department Suggests Possibility of US-North Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting During Choi Sun-hee's UN Attendance 3. N. Korea holds celebrations to mark 76th state founding anniv. 4. North Korea’s New Naval Base: Tapchon 5. China's Xi vows to strengthen ties with N. Korea in message to leader Kim 6. Nation With Lowest Birthrate Is Rocked By Soaring Sales of Dog Strollers 7. N. Korea slams U.N. report on its human rights as 'fabricated' document 8.  Monitoring and surveillance activities by Italy against illicit maritime activities including ship-to-ship transfers 9. North Korea's trash balloon causes record damage with fire at Paju warehouse 10. Poland Strengthens Artillery Capabilities with 500 HIMARS and 288 Homar-K Systems Rocket Launchers 11. Cheorwon Plain filled with rice ahead of the Chuseok harvest holiday 12. North Korean farmers in Hoeyrong resist corn guard duty 13. Welcome to the Resistance: Call for Papers—SOF in Competition

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In case you missed it: the team of Langley Esquire is pleased to share the synopsis of the 187th session of Japanese Politics One-on-One. Read about the candidates for the leadership positions of the LDP, CDP and Komeito, geopolitical tensions in the region and collective defense initiatives. The next episode takes place this Sunday, September 15, at 8:20 AM Tokyo time. Join Timothy Langley and Maya Matsuoka either or LinkedIn or YouTube! ____ If you gain insights from these briefings, consider a tailored one for your executive team in Japan or the passing-through-Tokyo headquarter strategists. Give us a call. #Japan #politics #japanesepolitics #government #policy

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The topics Timothy Langley covered in the 187th episode of Japanese Politics One-on-One are now available to those who prefer reading over listening. Join us and share your comments and questions at a convenient for you time in the comment section. #Japan #politics #japanesepolitics #business #defense #geopolitics

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10/21/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3UdzaGH 1. [Exclusive] UN Command finds cross-border broadcasts trigger trash balloons: JCS memo 2. Yoon, NATO chief share concerns over N.K.'s troop dispatch to Russia in phone talks 3. South Korea calls for immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops allegedly in Russia 4. Russia defends N. Korea ties, denies clarifying use of N. Korean soldiers in Ukraine 5. Yoon, British FM agree to cooperate against N.K.-Russia military cooperation 6. Russia Found to Use North Korea Missiles With Western Parts 7. DMZ residents suffer from North Korean loudspeakers, blame defector groups 8. South Korea tells North Korea that its troops are in Russia on loudspeaker broadcast 9. North Korean troop dispatch is South's chance to end national division: Ukrainian commander 10. Korea's Marine Corps participates in multilateral exercise led by U.S., Philippines 11. A crusade for North Korean human rights 12. N. Korea keeps mum on its troop deployment to Russia 13. Seoul thinks about providing extra 155mm shells to Ukraine 14. Xi sends reply to Kim, omitting the phrase ‘friendly neighboring country’ 15. N. Korean security agency caught hiding secret leaks 16. North Korea gains combat experience, South Korea battles manpower shortages 17. N. Korean military report exposes foreign media problem, sparks harsh punishments 18. Ukraine's Zelenskyy seeks strong reaction to North Korean involvement in war

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I (蓝若思) told RFA that the conflict between #China and the #Philippines at Sabina Shoal (仙宾礁) indicates that a "temporary arrangement" only cooled frictions but didn't resolve disputes over control in the SCS. "The South China Sea dispute has not been resolved, and China still claims that it has control and sovereignty within the 10-dash line in the South China Sea, and it has not given up on that claim. So, naturally, China will collide with ships from other countries in the South China Sea, whether it is the Philippines, #Vietnam or other countries. And China is now encroaching on the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, which is why the two countries often collide in waters owned by the Philippines, whether it is the Second Thomas Shoal or the Xianbin Reef.” I indicated that China treats Vietnam with courtesy because the two countries share similar communist ideologies, and that it confronts the Philippines because Beijing believes that the Philippines' actions are directed by the United States: "Vietnam and the Philippines have different political systems. In Vietnam, the Communist Party is in power, which also makes it supported and helped by Beijing. Similar ideologies make their relationship close, like brothers. ... The Philippines is different. The Philippines is a democratic country and it is supported by the United States. China believes that the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea are directed by the United States. China believes that the Philippines is a trouble, but there is an even bigger trouble behind the Philippines - the United States." I further pointed out that China still insists on its claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea in the face of international criticism. Therefore, overall, if any neighboring country has a sovereignty dispute with China, China will not back down: "As long as there is a country that challenges China's sovereignty claim, China will definitely respond. ... China's Coast Guard and maritime militia can be very aggressive. At the same time, by deploying maritime police ships, China can claim to the outside world that it is protecting its territorial waters, which is not as aggressive as sending the navy. This approach is a very smart 'gray zone' operation." #southchinasea #maritimesecurity #geopolitics Atlantic Council Pacific Forum Middlebury College

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AMID an ongoing verbal sparring match between Beijing and Manila spanning several months, it appears that China has grown irritated by the persistent denials from Philippine government officials regarding the purported "new model" agreement for resupply missions to Philippine troops stationed in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. This prompted China to adopt a hardball diplomatic stance, exemplified by the release of a transcript capturing the discussions between a Chinese diplomat and Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, the head of the Philippine military's Western Command, regarding the so-called new model or "one-plus-one" agreement with an overarching aim of mitigating and de-escalating tensions in the area, which, in my view, represents a prudent step for both parties to prevent escalation and promote diplomatic stability. Ensuring smooth resupply missions, free from confrontations, is crucial for regional peace, stability and security. Why then would the Marcos administration deny this? The intention behind this new model agreement is genuinely beneficial for both sides. Could it be that the Americans are unhappy with it? To continue reading click the link below TMT Link : https://lnkd.in/gEm6txSd

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8/22/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3XeEBqD 1. Spate of defections show Kim Jong-un regime is crumbling: refugees, experts 2. Strengthening the United Nations Command in Korea to Counter Authoritarian Collusion 3. Beyond the Surveys: Unpacking South Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions Amid Political and Domestic Realities 4. N. Korean children not vaccinated against polio for 3rd straight year in 2023: WHO 5. Unification minister urges NK to respond to proposal of forming inter-Korean working group 6. US expected to reaffirm NK denuclearization after rival parties make no mention of it: unification minister 7. Exclusive: Elite defections surge 2.5 times under Kim Jong-un 8. North Korean athletes' victory selfies raise red flags in Pyongyang 9. North Korean soldier defects on foot across fortified border to South 10. LA Koreans Protest Against Repatriation of North Korean Defectors in Front of Chinese Consulate General 11. Unification Minister: “North Korean Residents’ ‘Right to Access Information’ Expanded by Applying Cutting-edge Technology” 12. “In order to achieve North Korea’s denuclearization, we must first pursue a ‘nuclear freeze’” 13. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Heatwave Grips North Korea: Residents Sleep Outdoors Amid Lack of Air Conditioning and Power Shortages 14. Yoon orders ROK military to deter North Korea from ‘communizing’ South 15. Seoul defends all-male speaker lineup for upcoming forum on North Korea 16. Seoul minister denies new policy seeks unification with North Korea ‘by force’

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9/3/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4e5HaRw 1. US prioritizes deterrence over denuclearization on North Korea, experts say 2. Kim Jong Un Abandoned Unification. What Do North Koreans Think? 3. RFA Insider #14b: North Korean escapee interviews: Life after Pyonghattan part 2 4. It’s Texas 60 miles from the DMZ: The US military’s largest overseas base 5. Why are Britain’s diplomats virtue-signalling to South Korea? 6. Once neglected, Asian Americans now courted in knife-edge election 7. Gov't designates Oct. 1 Armed Forces Day as temporary holiday 8. Ex-U.N. chief Ban voices need to 'persuade' China to understand benefit of Koreas' unification 9. Trump says his talks with N. Korean leader Kim prove 'real change' is possible 10. What is South Korea's new unification policy? 11. N. Korea earned over US$6 bln through illicit activities over past 7 years: report 12. Japan's outgoing PM Kishida to visit South Korea 13. U.S. nuclear umbrella against N.K. threats may weaken under second Trump term: senior security official 14. Survivor of DMZ crossing: The man behind South Korea's 'Escape' film 15. Mobile menace: North Korea flexes nuclear muscle in TEL drills

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The weaponization of deepfakes is a growing concern, exemplified by a recent incident involving over 100 Singapore public servants, including five ministers, who were targeted with extortion attempts using AI-generated compromising images. Key points to note from this event: - Targeting has evolved to focus on public officials with easily accessible online information and images. - The impact is widespread, affecting multiple government agencies simultaneously. - Similarities to attacks in Hong Kong indicate potential cross-border coordination. - Notably, the democratization of this threat is alarming, as deepfake attacks, once requiring advanced technical skills, are now more prevalent. Globally, there has been a significant 245% year-on-year increase in deepfakes, reflecting the technology's growing accessibility and sophistication, providing malicious actors with a potent tool for exploitation. https://lnkd.in/gRuWQHgU #Singapore #Deepfakes #Government #EthicalAI

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6/18/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4cpwzQv 1. With North Korea trip, sanctioned Putin copies ‘Kim family playbook’ 2. A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation 3. The Significance of the Putin-Kim Summit 4. Putin vows trade, security with North Korea beyond reach of West 5. U.S. Foreign Policy Wanders Aimlessly 6. Putin praises North Korea for Ukraine support ahead of visit to Pyongyang 7. Putin set to arrive in N. Korea in rare trip amid deepening concerns about military cooperation 8. U.S. calls deepening N.K.-Russia ties trend of 'great concern' ahead of Putin's Pyongyang visit 9. Putin's N.K. trip raises security uncertainties, dims N.K. dialogue prospects 10. Putin vows to develop settlement system with N. Korea not controlled by West 11. N. Korean soldiers briefly cross border for 2nd time in less than 2 weeks 12. Russia could become North Korea's next treaty ally 13. Defense minister discusses arms cooperation with Romanian presidential official 14. Supporting South Korea’s Nuclear Submarine Aspirations 15. Putin to arrive in North Korea, with new treaty in focus 16. Washington, Seoul sound alarm over Putin’s visit to Pyongyang 17. Putin, in North Korea, Seeks Arms for Ukraine War 18. North Korea Has Lost ‘Many’ Troops to Mines in DMZ, South Says

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 For decades, U.S. policy in Asia has relied on what was informally known as the “hub and spokes” system of bilateral alliances. But lately, U.S. officials have used another analogy to describe their vision for the region: a lattice fence, as my Voice of America colleague, William Gallo, reports here from Seoul, South Korea. #usforeignpolicy #asia #voa https://lnkd.in/eJk5rdDX

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