Geoffrey Tan

“The future is an extremely distributed system to an extent that people haven’t fully grasped,” argues Matt Tilleard of CrossBoundary Energy Group, a firm whose customers range from large businesses to hitherto unconnected consumers. “It’s going to happen here in Africa first and most consequentially.” As we head into the Africa Energy Forum #aef2024 next week that will bring together businesses and governments from all over the world to talk about electrifying Africa, the The Economist published this thoughtful piece. While the number of large-scale, grid power projects in sub-Saharan Africa has been pathetically low over the last few years, there's been a significant uptick in the number of power projects being developed for private businesses so that they can produce their own power. There are pros and cons to this approach, which we will discuss at AEF, but electricity is electricity and more is better. According to this article 400 million Africans also are now getting their basic electricity from solar home systems (thanks in part to Power Africa's many partners!). I'm also pleased to be serving as an outside advisor to CrossBoundary Energy energy, through ODI, so that I can continue to be close to the market and learn about what's working and not working. The future of electricity will involve a combination of large-scale grid solutions, grid-connected mini-grids, and stand-alone off-grid solutions. We need to keep investing in all these sectors if we're going to reach the 600 million plus Africans who still do not have access to electricity. Tessa Lee Henry Carr Matt Tilleard Jake Cusack Simon Gosling Sarah Malm GOGLA Jem Porcaro The World Bank African Development Bank Group

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Here's a good article from the Financial Times that I, along with other colleagues, were interviewed for about our #Mission300 efforts, which remain incredibly exciting! Here are a few highlights: "[R]eforming debt-laden African utilities is a Herculean undertaking. Andy Herscowitz faced similar debates when he oversaw Power Africa, an Obama-era US government programme. He is now leading the Mission 300 Accelerator, which is backed by philanthropies including the Rockefeller Foundation, to support the World Bank target. “We struggled with on-grid. Not because we didn’t want to do it, but because utilities themselves were struggling,” he said of Power Africa. The programme later faced criticism for overstating its impact, including by counting solar lanterns — which typically deliver a few watts of power — as electricity “connections”. " "Everyone I interviewed emphasised that both off-grid and grid-connected solutions were necessary. Erik Fernstrom, who runs the World Bank’s energy program for eastern and southern Africa, said funding would be roughly split between grid and off-grid. “Every reasonable and least-cost [way] to reach people will be supported,” he said. “But we have seen that growth [in grid electricity] is very linear. It’s hard to exponentially increase utilities in Africa by connecting [power lines] and putting poles out.” Sarah Malm Todd Moss Erik Fernstrom Ashvin Dayal Jem Porcaro Johanna Galan, MBA GOGLA The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) The Rockefeller Foundation

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Excited to share my latest short piece in Devex, where I lay out what to expect to see in the energy space over the next four years, including the potential impact, along with the likelihood. For climate activists, there are many silver linings. Sure, it’s highly likely that we’ll see more investment in gas in Africa, but some gas investments could help push along the energy transition in places like South Africa and Botswana, where they need to swap out their coal for other forms of baseload energy in order to dramatically expand intermittent wind and solar — that is, unless we can . . . Unleash the power of the Inga Dam! The Inga hydropower expansion has been talked about and negotiated for years, but perhaps leaders who know how to get big “deals” done can get this elusive project — the BIGGEST energy deal in the world — across the finish line. Inga would provide almost limitless baseload renewable power to most of the African continent, paving the way for a massive renewable power generation expansion. And of course, there’s small modular nuclear power, which has suffered some setbacks over the last few years. It really hasn’t been commercialized at scale, but don’t be surprised to see more investment activity in this space. I recall a conversation with former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who told me that he expected SMRs to become commercially viable within 5-10 years (that was 5 years ago). He was in charge of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and ARPA-E. So, let’s see what happens in the next 4. Power Africa has consistently enjoyed bipartisan support in the U.S.. What’s better than figuring out how to leverage a limited amount of public money to mobilize billions of dollars of private investment for development. Power Africa has until 2030 to bring 300 million Africans access to electricity (it already has delivered 200 million) and to deliver 30,000 MW of new power generation. It can be done. Speaking of 2030, The World Bank and African Development Bank Group just made the bold commitment to bring 300 million MORE Africans electricity by 2030 (beyond Power Africa’s commitment) through #Mission300. We’ve learned a lot over the last decade, and I’m confident that with continued support from partners, we will achieve this goal. Enjoy! Frank Fannon Todd Moss Landon Derentz Ramsey Day Jon Marks DJ Nordquist Loan Programs Office | U.S. Department of Energy Andy Olson Richard Nelson Damilola Ogunbiyi Katie Auth Rose M. Mutiso, Ph.D. Kevin KARIUKI

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It was a fruitful week for The MCDF at the AIF. Looking forward to taking the actionable items forward in 2025. #MCDF #AFC #AfDB #DBSA #TDB

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Forget EVs, forget solar panels - if there’s one area where China has been consistently ahead of the game, it’s in its diplomacy with Africa. Some thoughts from Edward Knight and me on why this week’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) will showcase a more sophisticated approach to the continent. ▪ After a Covid slump, China’s Africa engagement is back on the rise. But China’s offer has changed since the last time leaders met in person in 2018. ▪ China is no longer just a “no strings attached” economic partner (if it ever was). Private investment is soaring - especially in key metals and minerals - and China’s new “global initiatives” are making new offers in less traditional areas like security training, concessional financing, conflict mediation and cultural exchange. ▪ This evolving strategy is driven by Beijing’s own changing priorities, but it works because it’s genuinely tailored to the needs of (some) African leaders. ▪ So that’s no longer just plugging the infrastructure gaps left by traditional development partners. It’s also: security support to tackle non-state actors, opening up new channels for African exports and providing vocational training at a scale almost no other country could match. ▪ As ever, knee-jerk criticism of African leaders’ China engagement is counterproductive. The smarter move is to pin-point specific risks, offer constructive alternatives where possible - and not be afraid to acknowledge where Chinese solutions can actually deliver. https://lnkd.in/e5n9mZKg

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Tanzania's SGR get major boost from AfDB The African Development Bank (AfDB) has announced a significant investment in Tanzania's infrastructure sector, pledging to raise $3.2 billion for the expansion of the East African standard gauge railway (SGR). This funding will extend Tanzania's existing SGR network to Burundi and ultimately the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Key outcomes for Tanzania: Improved Connectivity: The extended SGR will connect Tanzania to neighboring countries, facilitating trade and boosting economic activity. Enhanced Export Potential: Burundi's mineral resources, particularly nickel, will have a direct route to the port of Dar es Salaam, increasing Tanzania's role as a trade hub. Infrastructure Upgrade: The AfDB investment signifies continued development of Tanzania's critical infrastructure, promoting long-term economic growth. This project is part of the AfDB's wider commitment of over $50 billion to infrastructure projects across Africa. However, the focus on Tanzania's SGR specifically highlights the potential for this expansion to unlock significant economic benefits for the nation. Source AfDB

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 On 29 July 2024, the National Bank of Ethiopia gave a press release announcing a reform of the foreign exchange regime and enacted a foreign exchange directive, outlining the move towards a floating exchange rate regime. While some progress has been achieved, some challenges requiring further adjustments remain. By allowing the exchange rate to reflect market conditions, Ethiopia could mitigate the adverse effects of currency volatility and foster a more predictable economic environment. With the reform, the gap between the official and parallel foreign exchange rates has been narrowed significantly. Notably, some volatility remains, as seen in the exchange rate between September and October showing moderate fluctuations. In the first four months of the current fiscal year, the commercial banks recorded a 3.3 billion USD in foreign currency earnings, marking an increase of 13.5% as compared to the same period last year. The main driver of this positive trend is the remittances. In addition, the foreign reserves have also increased by 152% since the new fiscal year (July 2024) mainly due to disbursements from the Extended Credit Facility of IMF. However, more liquidity and continued adjustment, improvement in business enablers, tackling bureaucratic inefficiency, and peace and stability are needed to foster a robust private sector and economic resilience. Given the existing capacity constraints and challenging business environment, supply-side factors must be tackled simultaneously. High costs of doing business remain a major obstacle to export development in Ethiopia. As such, exchange rate adjustments will not address the structural bottlenecks impeding exports; a more comprehensive policy package, including measures to improve trade logistics, access to finance and land, infrastructure, customs regulations, and skills development, is necessary. Reforms aimed at enhancing export diversification are crucial to achieving sustained economic growth. Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will prevent conflicts, such as large budget deficits that could undermine currency stability. Managing inflation effectively will help Ethiopia retain the benefits of floating its exchange rate regime.

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As the West African Sahel battles climate insecurity and conflicts, all stakeholders, local, foreign, state, and non-state, must continuously work together to find sustainable solutions.

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On September 8, after about six months of research, a new model linking Article 6 of the Paris Agreement with the Debt-for-climate swap was accepted and published in the SSCI accredited Journal, Sustainability. Since the 28th UNFCCC Conference of Parties, discussions and implementation cases on the Debt-for-climate swap have been gradually increasing, so I hope this study will be helpful when the system is implemented in earnest in the future. #Parisagreement #Climatefinance

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Navigating Africa’s Energy and Water Transition: Highlights from Enlit Africa 2024 Programme Exciting news for investors, financiers, and industry stakeholders: the programme brochure for Enlit Africa 2024 has just dropped! Circle the dates 21st-23rd May 2024 –these are the days the Cape Town International Convention Centre becomes the nexus for all things power, energy and water in Africa. This iteration of the event once again provides insights into the foundational pillars of finance, investment, and management, amidst the broader exploration of smart energy solutions, transmission, distribution, and water – a crucial resource tightly interwoven with the provision of power across Africa. Tailored sessions promise to deliver cutting-edge insights into emerging markets, investment strategies, and financial models driving the energy transition. New this year are pitch sessions from start-ups and companies in search of capital. The Pitch Stage provides an exceptional opportunity to explore projects, carefully curated and vetted, from a variety of exciting entrepreneurs. For exhibition visitors and conference attendees alike, the open-to-all complimentary CPD-accredited programmes – are perfect for broadening your knowledge within the energy landscape. The Renewable Energy and Storage Hub spotlights opportunities ripe for investment. Corporates in the C&I sphere keen on diversifying their energy portfolios will discover an array of solutions and content that speak to sustainability, resilience, and profit margins. The Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Hub offers pragmatic, efficiency-enhancing solutions applicable to utilities and municipalities alike. 2024 sees the return of the Municipal Forum, an arena for addressing fiscal and infrastructural challenges that South African municipalities face.

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Delighted to have led the discussions between the AfreximBank and the SINOSURE (China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation) research teams. Our conversation revolved around the current state of the global economy and its impact on African countries. --African economies are rebounding, with growth rates returning to their 4-5% long-term trend. Inflation is cooling to 6-8%, and debt is stabilizing with progress in resolution. Some countries are issuing bonds for the first time since the pandemic. Intra-African trade is resilient and increasing. --International and African geopolitical tensions continue to pose a significant risk for the continent. --We emphasized Afreximbank's support to African economies through initiatives such as AfCFTA, PAPSS, trade and project finances, Afrexinsure, FEDA, LSF, and more. As of 2023, the bank's total assets amounted to $33 billion.

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Critical-minerals provides new opportunity for Tanzania to rethink its industrialization path towards integrated value added development strategy supported with stable policy frameworks and incentives program to unlock new investment in mining exploralation and development https://lnkd.in/dfEaB9j9

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💫 Insights from UNDP Africa’s Regional Director at the 2024 African Economic Conference (#2024AEC) on Unlocking Africa's Development Financing: In the face of global uncertainties 🌐⚡, traditional financing frameworks are being tested. For Africa, this is both a challenge and an opportunity to embrace innovative development financing 🌟💰—not just to provide immediate relief but to pave the way for long-term, sustainable growth. ‼️ Key Actionable Insights for improving Investments and Financing Flows into Africa: 1️⃣ Ensure Reduced Borrowing Costs Africa loses an estimated $75 billion annually to biased credit rating due to excessive interest rates and forgone lending opportunities 💸📉. To tackle this, UNDP Africa 🌟🤝 in partnership with AfriCatalyst launched the Africa Credit Ratings Resource Platform 🛠️📊. This platform provides data, expert advisory services, and tools to support African countries in engaging more effectively with credit rating processes. Explore the Africa Credit Ratings Resource Platform: (https://lnkd.in/d4X4BCFU) 2️⃣ Drive Transformative Change in 3 Critical Areas --> Resilience: Invest in technology, skills, and value addition to reduce reliance on imports—especially food and fuel—and unlock the potential of Africa’s raw commodities to feed itself and the world. --> Diversification: Strengthen the diversification of economies, integrate strategically into global and regional value chains, and mobilize resources to close critical gaps e.g human capital gaps in health and education infrastructure --> Resource Utilization: Ensure that Africa’s wealth works for its people. With $90 billion lost annually to illicit financial flows, it is vital to stop this outflow and leverage sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and insurance funds to fuel Africa’s development. These funds must be invested to benefit the continent rather than being deposited elsewhere to generate profits for others. ‼️The Path Forward ⏩: The mantra to carry forward is clear: “Africa’s wealth must work for the African people.” This message from #2024AEC is a call to action for policymakers, economists, development partners, and all stakeholders committed to the continent’s progress. To our dear African policy leaders, business leaders and citizens, let’s work together to drive these critical changes to overcome financing challenges and unlock Africa’s full potential. We must act decisively now —to catch up and leapfrog into a more prosperous future. #InnovativeFinancing #Africa #2024AEC #DevelopmentFinance #CreditRatings #AfricaCreditRating #UNDP Ahunna Eziakonwa Raymond Gilpin Tony Muhumuza, PhD UNDP Africa UNDP Nigeria African Development Bank Group United Nations Economic Commission for Africa KEVIN CHIKA URAMA

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Understanding Sovereign Debt: Options and Opportunities for Africa, with Ceyla Pazarbasioglu , Director of the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department (SPR) of the International Monetary Fund . Spring #IMFMeetings and #WBGMeetings United Nations Joint SDG Fund United Nations #InvestingInTheSDGs #BlendedFinance #DecadeOfAction #SDGfinancing #Fin4Dev #SDGs #SDGInvest #2030agenda #timetoact 💸No poverty 🍲No hunger 🏥Health 📚Education ⚧️Gender equality 🚰Water 💡Energy 👩🏾‍⚕️Work 🏭Industry ✖️No inequalities 🏙️Sustainable cities 🪙Responsible consumption 🌍Climate action 🌊Life below water 🌳Life on land 🕊️Peace 🤝Partnerships

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Explore Tanzania's 2024/25 Budget: A Vision for Sustainable Growth. On June 13, 2024, Tanzania unveiled its ambitious TZS 49.35 trillion budget, focusing on key projects like the Standard Gauge Railway and Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, alongside preparations for major national events and economic reforms. Discover how these initiatives aim to drive economic growth, strengthen industries, and enhance the business environment. Dive into the details and see how Tanzania is paving the way for a resilient, self-sufficient future. 📊 Read the full budget highlights here: ABA Alliance #TanzaniaBudget #EconomicGrowth #SustainableDevelopment #InvestmentOpportunities sylvester Orao Mwita Nelson Miriam Mmbando

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This chart says it all. Time for the wealthy countries to step up their game and invest in the continent poised for the greatest growth this century. It’s in everyone’s interest. #M300

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Updates from the Sahel Alliance 🌍 On May 14th, we convened our 14th Operational Steering Committee, led by the Regional Vice President for Western and Central Africa of the World Bank, Mr Ousmane Diagana. This meeting enabled us to: 🚀 Review progress on advancing joint initiatives across the Sahel Alliance’s 3 strategic priorities 👉 Delve into the evolving context, including the spillover of Sahelian crisis to coastal countries. 🤝 Emphasize the importance of fostering a partnership dialogue, including with Sahelian civil society. 🗓️ Prepare for the upcoming 5th General Assembly of the Sahel Alliance. #SahelAlliance #GlobalPartneship #DevelopmentEfforts

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I believe that Africa is at a pivotal moment in its economic development. I'm happy to share my latest published article where I explore the crucial role of strategic trade and investment policies play in fostering Africa's economic renaissance. In this piece, I explain how targeted policies can unlock opportunities across diverse sectors, driving sustainable growth and prosperity for the continent. Whether you're a policymaker, investor, or simply passionate about Africa's future, this article offers valuable perspectives. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: https://lnkd.in/dADwjZHX Let's continue the conversations shaping our economic landscape!

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Geopolitics- Not easy balancing national Economic; Political & Security interests in Eastern DRC and other conflicts. Interesting to see how the promise of pacification from membership of regional economic trade blocs like EAC ; Comesa & Sadc pans out. https://lnkd.in/dxDA3yc5

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