Patrik Blomdahl

Fixed income? Up (probably). Equities? It depends. With the US Federal Reserve expected to cut rates this year, what can we learn from earlier rate-cutting cycles that tells us how markets might respond? https://lnkd.in/dQV6PVSJ #fixedincome #equities #fed #rates #returns #cioinvestmentclub Allianz Global Investors

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Despite June marking the end of a long streak of consecutive positive months, the Nordic hedge fund industry still achieved its best half-year performance ever. The Nordic Hedge Index edged down 0.3 percent in June, with equity hedge funds and CTAs dragging down performance. Nevertheless, the industry ended the first half of the year with a gain of 7.5 percent, marking the best half-year performance since the first half of 2009, when the industry advanced 6.7 percent on average.

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In tight credit markets, we favor turning to defensive, high-coupon credits found among corporate hybrids for reliable potential returns. Read more in Linus Claesson's new #NBBlog https://lnkd.in/eezPDDha

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Intervalor had the joy to spend some time together with the seasoned US-equity manager Dan Davidowitz from Polen Capital this week, to meet with clients in Norway, Finland and Sweden. Investing in U.S. equities remains an appealing opportunity for investors, and Dan provided valuable insights into the strategy:   Where are the most significant investment opportunities located within the U.S. equity market at this time?   - Generative AI has been an all-consuming theme in the US for the last two years, far ahead of the reality of any economic benefit of the technology. Many exceptional companies are available at excellent valuations because they’ve been left behind in the stock market euphoria for Gen AI excitement.    In your experience, what common pitfalls do investors make when allocating to U.S. equities, and how can they avoid them?    - The most common mistake I’ve seen with investors outside the US, when considering allocating to the US, is being too sensitive to valuation levels. Certainly, US equities can become overpriced, but because US companies usually trade at a premium to most other markets, many people under allocate to the US waiting for tactical times to increase exposure on pullbacks that don’t occur or happen much later at much higher levels.

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The SimCorp Frankfurt Forum will take place next week, and we have just a few spots remaining! Join us on September 17 for insightful discussions with industry leaders on key topics in investment management. Register today and secure your place! https://lnkd.in/d5mpGEyU #assetmanagement #assetowners #fintech #investmentmanagement #innovation

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The new ETF from Ossiam in the EUR and USD share classes tracks the performance of the Bloomberg PAB Developed Markets Large & Mid Cap Index. The ETF allows investors to invest in a broadly diversified equity portfolio of companies from developed markets while pursuing a net-zero emissions strategy. The index aims to reduce greenhouse gas intensity by at least 50 per cent compared to the investment universe (Bloomberg Global Equity Indices) and an average reduction of at least 7 per cent per year. https://lnkd.in/ebVizWgJ #etfs #xetratrading

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Looking for a global equity SMA that has stood the test of time? Our Severin Long Term Growth SMA has consistently performed in the top percentiles of its category and has over a 10-year track record. Moreover, it's a 5 Star Rated SMA in Morningstar's Aggressive Growth Allocation as of 3/31/2024. (Morningstar updates Stars and Rankings quarterly for SMAs, with a one-month lag). While we overweight tech and own many of the major AI tech stocks driving the market, we do not take concentrated positions. We never invest more than 2-3% of the model in any one stock, and stay diversified across all sectors of the market. This provides efficient diversification and better risk-management. Our diversified SMAs are available to private clients and investment advisors. Severin Investments, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Severin Investments claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). You can obtain more information, including compliant performance presentations by emailing [email protected].

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EUR/USD is closing in on a one-year high as optimism builds about Fed rate cuts. The Swedish Riksbank cut rates by 25bps and signalled two or three more this year. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/eiebFTud   #fx #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #markets #economy #forex #currency #monetarypolicy #dollar #euro #sterling #inflation #federalreserve #bankofengland #ECB #Fed #treasury   Image Source: Reuters

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After years of extremely low interest rates, fixed income has once again emerged as an attractive asset class. While many segments of the fixed-income universe have regained appeal, Ville Iso-Mustajärvi, portfolio manager at Finnish pension insurer Veritas Pension Insurance Company, observes a notable caveat in the current environment: tight spreads across many credit carry segments, especially in US high yield. However, Iso-Mustajärvi points out that the relatively narrow average spreads hide “a fair amount of dispersion, which could represent a meaningful source of opportunity.” “The fixed-income universe is obviously more interesting, with some parts of the world offering positive real returns on bonds along high nominal rates,” reiterates Ville Iso-Mustajärvi, who has been working at Veritas for 15 years. He stresses the importance of real returns, stating that “nominal returns are of little help if capital loses purchasing power.” However, Iso-Mustajärvi highlights a drawback of the current environment: “tight spreads in several credit carry segments, particularly US high yield and, to a lesser extent, European high yield.” With spreads on the tight end, “the attractiveness of credits is twofold. While they offer real yields, the spread situation introduces some asymmetry,” says Iso-Mustajärvi. “This asymmetry arises from spreads compensating only for a limited amount of potential future credit losses and offering very little price return upside, reducing the best case to more or less harvesting the carry.” In negative outcomes, however, the drawdowns from current tight levels can be very substantial, according to Iso-Mustajärvi.

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📉𝗔𝗜 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆’𝘀 $𝟮 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀📉 Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, has issued a strong caution to investors celebrating big gains from the AI stock market surge. He predicts a challenging future with lower returns, driven by geopolitical tensions, falling liquidity, and the end of ultra-low interest rates. “The concentration is absolutely worrying,” Tangen said, pointing to the dominance of AI-related companies. He noted that the top 10 companies in the U.S. S&P 500 now represent about 20% of the entire index, with many tied to AI, creating unprecedented risk in the market. Despite these concerns, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund remains heavily invested in major tech players like: 💻 Microsoft 🍏 Apple 💡 NVIDIA 🔍 Alphabet Inc. 📦 Amazon 🌐 Meta 🔧 ASML 🏭 TSMC Collectively, Norges owns over $196 billion in shares across these leading tech firms, making it a key player in the AI-driven economy. Tangen also emphasized that U.S. tech dominance will likely continue due to heavy regulation in Europe. #InvestmentRisks #AIStockBoom #TechDominance #LowReturns #NicolaiTangen #BigTech #SovereignWealthFund #MarketTrends #NorwegianOilFund #AI

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💥 We wrap up this week with an insightful article by Anna Reitman from Finadium, featuring perspectives from Robert Koller, CAIA, CEO and Founder at NowCM, and Fredrik Creutz, Executive Chairman and Co-Founder at NowCM, on how technology is transforming the relationship between primary and secondary markets. The article explores challenges such as concentrated #risk in EU banks and how, even with CMU efforts to reduce barriers, treasurers still face high upfront costs and uncertain outcomes. NowCM, as the "issuer of record" for corporates, municipalities and other stakeholders via a Luxembourg-regulated securitization vehicle, tackles these issues through digitisation, enhancing transparency, and cutting issuance costs by up to 80%. Read full article: https://lnkd.in/erugUpyZ (paywall) #CapitalMarketsUnion #CMU #Risk #BondMarkets #Treasurer #Finadium #FinancialNews

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🎧 𝗔 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁-𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀: 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗗𝗿𝘂𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 Whether you’re seeking to sharpen your investment mindset or gain a fresh perspective on navigating market complexities, this episode of In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen and legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller shares invaluable insights into the behavioural side of investing. Known for his disciplined and flexible approach, Druckenmiller highlights the mental frameworks, habits and decision-making strategies that have driven his remarkable success.   📌Here are some key 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 every portfolio manager should consider:  • 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄: focus on where markets and opportunities will be 18–24 months from now, not just today • 𝗘𝗺𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: be ready to change course or exit positions when the evidence shifts; agility is key to long-term success • 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: don’t let ego or sunk costs dictate your moves; past performance is irrelevant to future potential • 𝗕𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: when the data and your analysis align, don’t hesitate to take meaningful positions; boldness pays off • 𝗕𝗲 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻-𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱: always be willing to admit when you’re wrong and adjust your approach accordingly • 𝗔𝗰𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀: quickly cut underperforming positions if they no longer align with your thesis; avoid holding out of hope • 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝗶𝘀𝗲: ground your decisions in solid analysis, avoiding distractions from market hype or trends • 𝗖𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆: continuously learn from markets, peers, and mentors to adapt and grow with changing conditions. This podcast offers a masterclass in blending behavioural discipline with market acumen. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from one of the greatest investors of our time. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/evZEQuE3 #SkillMetrics® #PortfolioManagement #BehaviouralInsights #InvestingWisdom #StanDruckenmiller #InGoodCompany #NorgesBank

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Jyske Capital saw strong net inflows from institutional clients and private banking, while private customer flows were at a standstill in Q1, Head of Jyske Capital, Henning Mortensen tells AMWatch. #bankingindustry #assetmanger #assetmanagement #fixedincome #institutionalinvestors #retailinvestors 

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WE ARE PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE that our open-ended private credit fund, Danske Invest Alternatives – Defensive*, has completed a co-investment alongside the major global investment firm, KKR. The co-investment is in a large pool of existing prime consumer loans in the US with strong underlying borrower quality. "𝐃𝐮𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫, 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡-𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐥𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲. This provides an opportunity to purchase assets that are normally not available to private capital providers," says Marjo Koivisto, Investment Director and Lead Portfolio Manager at Danske Bank Asset Management. The loan portfolio falls under the category of Asset-Based Finance, which refers to loans secured by financial, intangible, or hard assets. "We expect this co-investment to offer a compelling return potential while further diversifying risk in our Danske Invest Alternatives – Defensive portfolio," says Marjo Koivisto. *𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘋𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘬𝘦 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘚𝘐𝘊𝘈𝘝 – 𝘚𝘐𝘍 𝘈𝘭𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 - 𝘋𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘮𝘦𝘦𝘵 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴. 𝘈 𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘌𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘩 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: https://lnkd.in/dyJtXkmr. 𝘋𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘬𝘦 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘈/𝘚 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘴.

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📈 Daily Close: European Bond Market Bounces Back - August 19, 2024 The European bond market shook off its summer lull today, with €6.3bn raised across asset classes after last week's record-low activity. Major players like Amprion and Volvo Treasury kicked off the week with dual-tranche euro deals, attracting robust investor interest. ING Groep reopened the euro market with a €1.25bn Tier 2 bond, underscoring strong demand as markets revive post-vacation. Covered bonds and SSA sectors also saw renewed action, setting the stage for a busy week ahead. Dive into the full report here and don’t miss tomorrow’s updates as key issuances roll out: https://bit.ly/4drbfv2 Not an IGM subscriber yet? Start your free trial today: https://bit.ly/3X8C55b #MarketUpdate #Bonds #Investing 

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