Paul Conway

Victorian councils understand the urgent need for all levels of government to address the deepening housing crisis in Australia. Because every single Victorian deserves access to affordable and suitable housing. We acknowledge that targets, as part of a range of responses, can be a useful tool in driving the creation of new homes in our State. But the road to target-driven outcomes must be paved with collaborative planning and the recognition of local realities. Today’s news that the State Government could remove planning powers from councils that fail to meet targets is worthy of discussion, but a more constructive idea is to recognise the value of partnership and collaboration.    Local governments hold invaluable local knowledge and insights that are an essential input into effective housing strategies. As the closest tier of government to the community, councils are uniquely positioned to translate housing targets into meaningful local developments that respect and enhance the character and needs of each area. We steadfastly believe the community is best served by a shared approach, where the State Government and councils work hand-in-glove to address the housing deficit together.  Stripping councils of their planning powers is not the solution. Instead, we should focus on strengthening the capabilities of local councils to work in line with the State Government’s objectives, bolstering their role in planning decisions and ensuring there is meaningful community engagement in the process. As we move forward, the MAV is committed to this partnership model as part of an approach that champions the expertise of local governments and nurtures the cooperative spirit that has always been present when we have solved big problems like this in the past. I invite the State Government to join us in ensuring a future where the creation of new housing is not just a mandated metric, but a collaborative effort between governments to get us out of the housing mess we’ve been in for far too long. #HousingCrisis #CommunityFirst #LocalGovernment #Victoria #UrbanPlanning #Collaboration

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It’s been terrific to work alongside the Municipal Association of Victoria’s Housing Taskforce as we prepared a comprehensive paper for the State Government’s engagement process to inform a Plan for Victoria. When tackling significant challenges, setting ambitious goals can be a valuable strategy in devising solutions. In preparing a Plan for Victoria it's crucial for the Victorian government to leverage the expertise and insights of councils to address the housing crisis effectively and foster sustainable communities in the long term. The MAV Housing Taskforce submission builds on the previous papers prepared by the Municipal Association of Victoria late last year in partnership with SGS Economics and Planning, ‘Shaping Metropolitan Melbourne ’ and ‘Shaping Regional & Rural Victoria.’ This submission by the MAV Housing Taskforce is informed by an evidence base prepared by RMIT Centre for Urban Research and focuses on the recent housing targets and the need for a comprehensive statewide Housing Strategy. Our recommendations highlight additional factors requiring attention and emphasise that growth must enhance liveability. This involves actively engaging councils in planning processes and ensuring all levels of government invest in local amenities and infrastructure to meet community needs. The MAV is committed to strengthening partnerships between local, state, and federal governments and the private sector to collaboratively tackle Victoria's housing challenges. I extend my gratitude to all MAV Housing Taskforce members for their timely engagement in this critical work. Together, we can shape a future where everyone can thrive in vibrant, sustainable and inclusive neighbourhoods. Libby Porter Rob McGauran Harriet Shing Sonya Kilkenny Patrick Fensham Planning Institute of Australia Dan Hill 🗺 Bonnie Shaw Kat Panjari James McLean Carmel McCormack Jane Keddie Council of Capital City Lord Mayors Australian Local Government Association Linda Scott (GAICD) Andi Diamond Kelvin Walsh Ron Torres Evan Counsel Evan King Scott Barber Andrew McMaster Stephen Wall Helen Sui Brett Luxford Rebecca McKenzie Rachel Dapiran Emma Appleton Johnathan Guttman Stephen Swart Luke Connell Celia Haddock Sanjay Manivasagasivam MAICD Tennille Bradley-Ow Rachel Sarah Lunn MRICS Dr. Marjan Hajjari Jacqui Weatherill

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Monetary Policy Matters (16) New Zealand Government Budgets, fiscal legislation, and fiscal uncertainty: Amidst the clamour to assess the macroeconomic impact of the NZ Government’s Budget 2024, it is easy to overlook the significance of the legislative framework guiding fiscal policy. When implementing fiscal policy, NZ governments are required to comply with a set of principles and reporting requirements introduced by the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 (FRA - now embedded in the Public Finance Act, 1989). This is acknowledged in Budget Policy Statement 2024 explaining the Government’s fiscal objectives and strategy, as required by the legislation. This legislation is intended to improve fiscal policy by (i) ensuring policy results in sustainable levels of public debt, and by (ii) reducing uncertainty about future fiscal policy and management. If these aims of the legislation are realised, they can be beneficial for the private sector, and be helpful for monetary policy. While the 1994 legislation has been influential internationally and considered to have contributed to ensuring sustainable levels of NZ public debt, less attention has been given to assessing whether it has reduced fiscal policy uncertainty. This gap in our understanding of the benefits of internationally influential fiscal legislation has been addressed in recent research by Michael Ryan and Mark Holmes (University of Waikato) published in New Zealand Economic Papers: https://lnkd.in/grnPHZB7 Ryan and Holmes suggest the legislation may reduce fiscal uncertainty by (i) reducing information asymmetry between the public and government, thereby (ii) enabling a more informed public to hold governments accountable, and (iii) contributing to more time-consistent fiscal policy. They refer to other international research showing how certain types of constraints on the discretionary power of government can reduce fiscal policy uncertainty and lower output volatility. In a carefully designed research strategy, the authors estimate alternative time series measures of NZ government net tax uncertainty and government spending uncertainty. They find that, compared to the average levels of fiscal uncertainty for the years before the legislation was introduced in 1994, after the FRA was introduced in 1994 (and until 2017): 1. Net tax uncertainty was between 32 to 46 per cent lower on average, and 2. Government spending uncertainty was between 31 to 40 per cent lower on average.   Much focus by commentators and analysts of the recent Budget has been on the impact on aggregate demand, output gaps, and future borrowing requirements. Attention should also be given to whether fiscal policy is consistent with the requirements of the FRA and is contributing to fiscal sustainability and reducing fiscal policy uncertainty.

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The May local and mayoral election results show that the coming general election will almost certainly bring a new administration with a mandate for radical change. Until a general election, however, the country is in a state of planning limbo affecting government and business. After the election a new, likely Labour-led, administration would be constrained in improving public services, raising defence spending, and investing in infrastructure, by the high level of taxes and high borrowing costs. The private sector could help to restart growth as there is a real prospect of new investment from companies who have been waiting for a stable policy environment. A successful recovery will, however, need a transformation in conventional economic thinking to restore purpose and optimism to all sectors of the economy. What will be needed will be unified economic policies that recognise the benefits of a comprehensive industrial policy, as well as adequate housing, health and social services. For the dynamic industries that will reinvigorate the economy it will be particularly necessary to work together to provide the skills, industrial environment, and trade environment that they need. At the Industry Forum, we are optimistic about the future and the vital contribution of dialogue and planning as new ministers grapple with turning manifesto promises into credible plans and budgets.  #industrialstrategy #energytransition #renewableenergy #tradestrategy #housebuilding #NHS

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Monetary Policy Matters (17) Considering stabilisation, structural and sustainability aspects of government budgets: Assessing macroeconomic effects of Government Budgets is complex, and therefore difficult for analysts under pressure to deliver prompt assessments. A conceptual framework I find helpful considers three aspects of a budget: its macroeconomic stabilisation features, how characteristics of tax and spending changes impinge on the structure of an economy, and the potential political and fiscal sustainability of budget initiatives. This framework draws on that developed with Treasury colleagues & published as a Treasury Working Paper: https://lnkd.in/gTJxtwTu. It arose from extensive reviews of international research from which we suggested three fundamental roles of fiscal policy: (i) Stabilisation: an instrument for macroeconomic stabilisation (a renewed debate following the Pandemic initiatives), (ii) Structural: how fiscal initiatives can change an economy's structure, e.g., labour force participation, productivity and growth (also a topic of debate today, see MPM (14)), and (iii) Sustainability: whether fiscal initiatives, deficits and debt are politically and financially sustainable (also a hot topic today). This framework has been applied in subsequent Treasury work on fiscal policy and mentioned by Dominick Stephens while introducing the Treasury Guest Lecture by Claudia Sahm. There are important connections between these three aspects that make Budget analysis complex. For example, the impact of the recent NZ Budget reductions in Government spending allowances and tax thresholds on aggregate demand and the output gap (stabilisation effect) will depend on the extent Government can achieve its proposed spending reductions and how the private sector responds to the tax cuts. The latter reaction may depend on whether households (at least those not cash-constrained) believe the tax reductions are sustainable, which in turn will depend on perceptions of sustainability of projected public debt and interest rate reactions, as well as political sustainability. Another example arises from literature evaluating how the composition of taxes and government spending can influence productivity and potential growth. Infrastructure and education spending have been found to have more significant effects on productivity and economic growth than some other types of public spending. But the realisation of potential productivity effects of such spending switching within the public sector can also depend on perceptions of the sustainability of the public finances, as well as political sustainability. There are other examples I could provide. These remarks are not a commentary on the NZ budget. They are simply to illustrate why it’s important to consider a Budget's stabilisation, structural and sustainability features (and not simply one aspect) and how they can interact to influence the macroeconomy.

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What is the government going to do to bring excessively high public service remuneration packages into line with community expectations? AND What can the government do to stop excessively overpaid elites lecturing us about disadvantage?

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  In October 2021, the Government Policy Statement on Housing and Urban Development (GPS-HUD) was released. https://lnkd.in/dBsNcrP7 At the time, then-Minister Megan Woods stated that the GPS-HUD would provide clarity to all those working within the system about how Government policies and investments would align to tackle the acute challenges of the housing crisis. The GPS-HUD was designed to guide policy decisions and investments to deliver a shared, consistent, and enduring set of outcomes in the long term. The GPS-HUD and its corresponding implementation plan set out four key action areas: 🔹 Reduce barriers to building 🔹 Build homes where people need them 🔹 Help people into affordable homes 🔹 Help people in urgent housing need Due to wider system changes at the time, the GPS-HUD flew under the radar for many. However, as we approach the three-year mark of the GPS-HUD, I wonder what the future holds for this mechanism in the system. The Act that establishes the GPS-HUD, alongside Kāinga Ora, is clear that Ministers must review the GPS-HUD at intervals no more than three years apart. So, if and when the GPS-HUD is renewed, what needs to be front of mind for its next stage? While we can expect any revised GPS-HUD to reflect the current Government’s housing objectives and work programme – with Going for Housing Growth likely to be a prominent feature – will there be any wider changes and reflection? For example, will there be a reflection on the purpose, and influence that the GPS-HUD has had on the housing and urban development system? How can tools like this be improved? What lessons can be drawn from other GPSs we have across the system, including those that aim to provide system-wide direction? What do you think needs to be front of mind when the GPS-HUD is reviewed?

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Interesting move but check against delivery - the fine print in the actual bill and whether it will pass before the election in a sluggish Parliament. #firstnations #politics For the “historic treaty” nations in the West - the eleven “numbered treaties” - it would be meaningful to finally fulfill the land entitlements promised more than a century ago. The main obstacle has always been the provincial governments who control most of the Crown lands. (Look up Treaty Land Entitlements (TLE)) or for a deeper dive into implementation issues look up Additions to Reserves ATR). Creating treaty commissions in several provinces has only had modest impacts over the past twenty years. So this is something Premiers Smith, Moe and Kinew can do something about - let’s challenge them to make a formal commitment on June 21 - or perhaps at the next Western Premiers meeting -to fulfill all the TLEs within ten years whatever it takes. Not just the usual soothing talking points that don’t move many hectares. They would find receptive partners in First Nations and the feds….

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The Australian Treasury has released the final report of the Productivity Commission's review of a revitalised National Competition Policy. https://lnkd.in/gKUF3i22.  The PC was tasked with analysing the impact of 26 proposed reforms, two of which are particularly relevant to my current work on standards:   Dynamic Business Environment (B1), Overseas Standards: Lower barriers to the adoption of trusted overseas standards. Net Zero (NZ2), Overseas Standards: Streamline the adoption of trusted overseas standards to enable an efficient net zero transformation.   The Commission wisely chose not to include these measures in the CGE modelling, opting instead for a case studies approach. Without getting into the specifics of their methodology, they found that B1 could result in direct effects of $500 million per year in lower costs for businesses. For NZ2, they estimated a net present benefit of $2 billion from enabling Vehicle-to-Grid (VTG) technology, due to the substitution effects reducing the need for grid-scale battery storage.   The Commission's estimates are conservative and likely represent a lower bound on the impact of these measures. These reforms will lead to a significant reallocation of resources. Regulators will be able to shift their focus from duplicating the efforts of trusted overseas standards-setting organisations, which serve much larger markets, to addressing gaps and specific risks unique to Australia. This shift will enhance, not diminish, the safety and quality of goods and services available in Australia. Businesses will benefit from greater regulatory certainty and lower compliance costs, leading to increased variety, more competition, and lower prices for consumers.  

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While trying to remain reasoned and rational, it is really hard to see what the Coalition Governments new 2024 Budget might mean for the 1,000’s of our whanau shareholders… What this budget instead is all about is starting to lay the foundation for lifting the performance and productivity of the economy and while starting to address investing capital into health, education and law and Order. And that is admirable leading into the next General Election! But, I now start to doubt whether this new team will see-out their 1st term’ let alone contemplate a 2nd or 3rd term of Governance of Aotearoa? Canadian Council for Indigenous Business | Ministry for the Environment | Manatū mō te Taiao |Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) | Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment | New Zealand Trade and Enterprise | New Zealand National Party |Jacinda Ardern | British New Zealand Business Association | European Commission | European Investment Bank (EIB) | New Zealand China Council | Mangaroa Incorporation | Paul Te Poa Karoro Morgan CNZM, QSO, CFInstD | New Zealand Trade and Enterprise | Asia New Zealand Foundation

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Key lessons on road asset management- valuable insights for every Council in Australia

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Given the fixation the Three Horsemen of the Coalition have for PPPs, surely it’s imperative that these documents are in the public domain. This will hopefully enable a more informed debate about key infrastructure investment in future. A key question is who took the decision to withhold the information - a Minister or a public servant?

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Today I announced new guidance to help agencies make smarter use of taxpayer dollars through private sector strategic leasing partnerships for infrastructure. This 'PPP-lite' approach ensures New Zealanders can get the quality infrastructure they need, where and when it's needed, while retaining flexibility to changing circumstances. Strategic leasing complements our recent PPP Framework refresh, adding another tool in our infrastructure tool belt to better deliver a different class of assets. Read the guidance and the full release below.

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One of the challenges of the Australian Financial Advice Industry is the constant misrepresentation of it as homogenous. It’s not. Cutting it by geography or licence conditions or even length of service doesn’t cut it. Modelling behaviour from small cohorts doesn’t cut it. Using licensee provided sample doesn’t cut it. synthetic data doesn’t cut it. What CoreData is really interested in is who is growing, who has a plan and why. Even that is nuanced, using number of customers as a proxy doesn’t work either because often the businesses that are in run off are loaded with low service insurance clients. If you want to understand who is growing and why reach out. I’m easy to find.

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Are you looking for further insights in regards to the framing and implications of the Australian Government’s Budget? Or do you have a burning question to ask Dr Kennedy, the person who framed the budget? Then why don’t you join me at the ABE lunch where Dr Kennedy will present his post Budget update.

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Has anyone else noticed the Household Expenditure Survey was done 8 years ago? The previous survey was in 2009-10 and prior to that in 2003-04. While I appreciate COVID may have delayed an update it has been longer than usual. Such information could be useful to assessing current household budgetary pressures, particularly assessing the share of household expenditure on energy (Domestic fuel and power) and forming policy. When will the ABS update the HES Survey?

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Thanks so much for highlighting the science behind scaling ANU College of Business and Economics!

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The Queensland government's decision to offer a pre-election 50 cent fare sweetener has renewed debate over the merits of free (or nearly free) public transport. As opposed to other things that are more effective at (a) getting people on public transport and (b) helping relieve cost of living pressures. I'd argue that the dearest trip is that which cannot be made on public transport. 50 cent fares won't fix that. But better service, eg attention to coverage, operating hours and frequency might. My comparison on how Brisbane compares with other large Australian capitals on this is here: https://lnkd.in/gwPX_JgR

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