CAB Payments Europe

Morning Minute 20/12: US Christmas shutdown looms Headlines: ◼️ Dozens of Republicans in the House of representatives defied Donald Trump by voting down a bill back by him to extend government funding, leaving the US facing a government shutdown just before Christmas. ◼️ British retail sales rose by 0.2% last month, showing weaker signs of growth than expected, adding to fears of a slowdown in the British economy | Despite the Bank of England (BoE) saying it expected 0% growth in the last quarter of the year, yesterday the BoE kept rates on hold at 4.75%, citing lingering inflation pressures. ◼️ European shares are expected to finish this week as the worst performing week in three months, as the STOXX 600 fell 0.8% | Markets were spooked by comments from Donald Trump demanding that the European Union purchase more oil and natural gas from the US, to make up for the “tremendous” trade deficit, or tariffs will be imposed on the bloc. Emerging Markets: ◼️ The central bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25% yesterday to 10% | This is the fifth cut this year, with the rate dropping from a record high of 11.25% in March | The governing board signalled that future rate cuts would also be considered if inflation continued to improve. ◼️ Colombia’s government has issued its budget for 2025 by decree, the first time in over 20 years that the budget has not been approved via congress as President Gustavo Petro does not have a solid majority in the house. ◼️ The President of Mozambique, Filipe Nyusi, has said that he had an hour-long phone call with the leader of the opposition, Venancio Mondlane to discuss the unrest in the country following the disputed elections in October.   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 19/12: Fed lowers rates, signals fewer cuts next year Headlines: ◼️ The Federal Reserve cut their benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive meeting yesterday, moving 0.25% lower to a range of 4.25%-4.5% | The move, expected by the markets, was agreed by a 11-1 vote, with a surprise dissent from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack who voted to keep rates steady. ◼️ The Bank of Japan kept held interest rates steady at their meeting today, but one board member did vote to increase borrowing costs, suggesting that the bank may tighten next year. ◼️ The Swedish central bank cut rates by 0.25% this morning, following in the steps of yesterday’s Fed decision | The Riksbank has cut rates five times this year, with the rate now standing at 2.50% and looks set to be more cautious in 2025, as inflation stands below the 2% target. Emerging Markets: ◼️ The Philippine central bank (BSP) cut its interest rate by 0.25% to 5.75%, the third consecutive cut and moving the rate in line with market expectations. ◼️ Mozambique’s economic growth is likely to have stalled this year, following months of protests over the results of October’s presidential elections. ◼️ Myanmar has briefed neighbouring countries on its plan to hold elections next year, including the possibility of inviting foreign observers | Myanmar has been gripped by an escalating civil war after the military overthrew a democratically elected government in 2021 and suppressed pro-democracy protests.   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 18/12: UK inflation hits 8-month high Headlines: ◼️ Inflation in the UK rose to an 8-month high in November, data released by Office for National Statistics confirmed this morning | Consumer prices increased by 2.6% year on year, after a reading of 2.3% was seen in October. ◼️ European shares have had a muted start to the day as investors keenly await monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England scheduled for tonight and tomorrow, respectively. ◼️ Japan’s exports increased by more than expected in November, data released this morning showed | Exports rose by 3.8% year on year, with economists expecting a 2.8% rise over the same period, after a reading of 3.1% was seen in October. Emerging Markets: ◼️ Indonesia’s central bank kept interest rates steady at its meeting held this morning | Officials kept the benchmark rate steady at 6%, while also leaving the overnight deposit facility and lending facility rates unchanged, as expected by analysts. ◼️ Morocco’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate at this morning’s quarterly monetary policy meeting | Policymakers lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. ◼️ The Central bank of Chile cut its benchmark interest rate at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting | policymakers voted unanimously to lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, as expected by economists.   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 17/12: British wages rise faster than expected Headlines: ◼️ British pay rose by more than expected in the three months to October, official data showed on Tuesday, prompting investors to further rein in bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts next year, despite warning signs of a slowdown in the economy. ◼️ German business morale worsened more than expected in December, weighed down by companies' pessimistic assessment of the coming months amid geopolitical uncertainty and an industrial slump in Europe's largest economy. ◼️ Chinese leaders agreed last week to raise the budget deficit to 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, its highest on record, while maintaining an economic growth target of around 5%, according to sources. Emerging Markets: ◼️ Nigerian inflation rose to a 28-year high in November, hitting 34.6% to 33.9% in October | The rise is being pushed by the increase in food prices as floods in the north of the country cause the price of yam and corn to rise, alongside increases in fuel prices. ◼️ Pakistan's central bank cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13% yesterday, the fifth consecutive cut since June. ◼️ Market anxiety dragged Brazil's real currency to a historic low on Monday as significant central bank interventions again failed to counter market concerns over government spending.   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 16/12: European equities open lower after softer Chinese retail sales data Headlines: ◼️ Retail sales growth in China unexpectedly dropped in November while industrial output improved, official data released this morning showed | Retail sales data year on year came in at 3% with analysts expecting a print of 4.6%, marking the lowest reading in three months and highlighting the potential need for consumer-focussed stimulus. ◼️ European equities have opened lower on the day after the weaker than expected retail sales data in China dented sentiment | The Euro Stoxx 600 is trading 0.34% lower, while the FTSE has also lost 0.36%, futures on the S&P were little changed on the day. ◼️ Factory activity in Japan contracted for the sixth consecutive month in December, data released this morning showed | The au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing purchasing managers index fell at a slower pace, coming in at 49.5 on the month after a reading of 49 was seen in the previous period. Emerging Markets: ◼️ South Korea’s constitutional court has begun reviewing the impeachment case of President Yoon Suk Yeol, while investigators prepare to question him this week | The court will hold the first public preparatory meeting on December 27th, as confirmed by spokesperson Lee Jean. ◼️ Wholesale inflation in India slowed in November, government data confirmed this morning | Wholesale inflation came in at 2.2% on the month, after a reading of 2.36% was seen in the previous period. ◼️ Inflation in Israel fell in November, data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics showed. Annual inflation dropped to 3.4%, marking the lowest reading seen since July, with economists expecting a print of 3.6% over the same period.   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 13/12: ECB cuts rates for fourth time this year Headlines: ◼️ The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by another 0.25% yesterday, taking the deposit rate to 3% as it continues easing policies in the face of dropping inflation | The debate has moved now to whether the pace of rate cuts is sufficient to stimulate the bloc’s economy, which is in the doldrums and coming close to recession. ◼️ The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting their key benchmark rate by 0.5% rather than the expected 0.25%, to reach a rate of 0.5% | SNB President Martin Schlegel stated in remarks after his first meeting as governor that not cutting by 0.5% would have meant that policy is too restrictive. ◼️ The British economy shrank by 0.1% in October, striking a blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who described the figures as “disappointing” though said that the policies announced in October’s budget would create long-term growth. Emerging Markets: ◼️ Peru’s central bank held their benchmark rate at 5% yesterday, as expected by the market | Peru has one of Latin America's lowest benchmark interest rates, and the central bank said in a statement that future rate changes will depend on inflation data and its determinants. ◼️ Indonesia’s President has suggested scrapping one of the country’s nationwide elections and returning to a model closer to the one used during the country’s three decades of authoritarian rule. ◼️ Mozambique’s Council of State has recommended “profound” reforms to the electoral system in the country, following unprecedented violence after the 9th October presidential elections. Upcoming elections 14/12: Georgia, Presidential   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 12/12: Equity futures signal muted start before ECB interest rate decision Headlines: ◼️ Futures on the Euro Stoxx are signalling a muted start to the session as investors keenly await the ECB’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for this afternoon. ◼️ Consumer prices in the US rose by the most seen in seven months in November, data released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics yesterday showed | The consumer price index came in at 0.3% on the month, after a reading of 0.2% was seen in the previous period, as expected by economists. ◼️ The Bank of Canada cut interest rates at its meeting held yesterday | Officials lowered the key rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, as expected by analysts. Emerging Markets: ◼️ Brazil’s central bank hiked interest rates by more than expected at yesterdays monetary policy meeting | Officials increased the benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 12.5%. ◼️ Economic growth in Ghana expanded at its fastest pace in close to 5 years in the third quarter, as confirmed by the government statistics department yesterday | Gross domestic product accelerated to 7.2% year on year, against the expectation of a 5.4% rise from analysts. ◼️ Haiti’s government has reopened the capital’s main international airport, which has been shut since last month. The move comes after the Federal Aviation Administration stated it would extend a ban on US airlines from flying through Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince up to March 12. Upcoming elections 14/12: Georgia, Presidential   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 11/12: European stocks fall on back of corporate updates Headlines: ◼️ European stocks slipped this morning after the release of downbeat corporate updates and as the market awaits the release of US inflation data | The STOXX 600 index dropped by 0.2%, a second day of decline following a seven-week closing high on Monday. ◼️ Japanese wholesale inflation continued to accelerate for a third month, as companies pass on higher material and labour costs | The corporate goods price index rose 3.7% in November, the fastest rate since July 2023, and above market expectations of 3.4%. ◼️ Chinese policymakers are considering allowing he yen to weaken next year, in recognition that the country needs increased economic stimulus to spur a fragile recovery | When Donald Trump takes office in January, he is likely to apply greater tariffs to China, with threats of a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports into the US. Emerging Markets: ◼️ A new prime minister has been appointed in Syria, paving the way for the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees, as European countries pause asylum applications while they assess the situation. ◼️ South African inflation rose slower than expected in November, reaching 2.9%, vs market expectations of 3.1%, leaving inflation below the central bank’s target range of 3%-6% | Food and drink inflation experienced a sharp decline in inflation, from 3.6% in October to 2.3% last month. ◼️ Romania’s pro-European parties have reached an agreement to form a governing majority that will exclude the far-right from government | The Social Democrats won the most seats in the parliamentary election on 1st December, in which far-right parties won a third of seats. Upcoming elections 14/12: Georgia, Presidential   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 10/12: European equities open lower after Chinese shares drop Headlines: ◼️ European equities have opened lower on the day after shares in China pared an opening rally | The Euro Stoxx 600 dropped 0.16% on the day, while the FTSE has lost 0.54%. ◼️ Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting held this morning | Officials kept the key cash rate steady at 4.35% as expected by analysts. ◼️ Japan’s economy grew at a faster pace than initially expected between July and September, data released this morning showed | Quarter on quarter GDP expanded by 0.3%, with previous estimates suggesting a 0.2% rise. Emerging Markets: ◼️ The World Bank has downgraded Kenya’s economic growth estimate for this year to 4.7%, from an initial 5%, citing the impact of floods, anti-government protests and faltering fiscal consolidation efforts. ◼️ South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has fired the head of the country’s military, the police chief and the central bank governor, with Kiir giving no reasons for the dismissals ◼️ Zambia’s constitutional court has ruled that former President Edgar Lungu was ineligible to run for another term in office after he announced his return to active politics last year. Upcoming elections 14/12: Georgia, Presidential   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication

Morning Minute 09/12: Rebels seize Damascus as Assad flees Headlines: ◼️ Rebel forces seized the Syrian capital of Damascus at the weekend, following a lightning advance | President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, where he has been granted asylum by the authorities following his family’s brutal 50-year rule. ◼️ An attempt to impeach South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol failed on Saturday after members of his People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the vote in parliament, leaving it just short of the 200 votes needed for impeachment. ◼️ Chinese consumer inflation fell to a five month low last month driven by food prices and factory deflation | The figures come in spite of Chinese authorities’ efforts to prop up the stuttering economy, with reports this morning that Beijing will implement more proactive fiscal policy and loosen monetary policy in the new year. Emerging Markets: ◼️ Former President John Dramani won the Ghanaian presidential election at the weekend, staging a dramatic comeback after defeating Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who conceded defeat yesterday. ◼️ Consumer prices in Chile rose 0.2% in November, below the 0.3% increase expected by the market | Annual inflation hit 4.2% last month, falling below the 4.7% level in October, but still above the central bank’s target range of 2%-4%. ◼️ Electricity supplies in Mozambique have been disrupted by ongoing protests in the country over the disputed elections in October | The regions in the south of Mozambique have had supplies cut by a third after protestors gathered at two power plants, forcing authorities to shut them down. Upcoming elections 14/12: Georgia, Presidential   -------------------------------------------------   Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable at the time of publication. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such. Crown Agents Bank Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication   Image source: AP