LJ Suzuki

Growing pains. I have followed with interest Mexico's Cessna Caravan operator Aerus' rapidly evolving network on its quest to find a solid and sustainable footing. Aerus' MTY base represents about 65% of the airline's total block hours, with a single route alone (PDS) accounting for an estimated third of total airline enplanements and revenue in months past. A cluster of operations involving cities such as CVM, REX, TAM and TRC seemed logical to attempt, but proved to be unsuccessful and was therefore terminated. Aerus' Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico satellite operations explain the rest of the airline's activity. So far these appear to be too thin to generate sufficient critical mass, on less than optimal aircraft utilization. Actual load factor data and indicative fares in these markets suggest a network recalibration and capacity reallocation might be in order to reduce cash burn. It remains to be seen whether the opening of a new decentralized focus region could be part of the company's short-term plans. Bottom line: Trial and error schedule planning is not unusual for any new entrant, especially one as nimble as Aerus given its small size. Yet examples of recently aborted (MTY-CRP) and rapidly discontinued (MTT-VER/VSA) new routes should be a cause for concern to the airline's management, now with more experience under its belt and lessons learned. Aerus' north of the border expansion out of MTY, now in effect, is a logical network development phase and will be critical to prove the airline's business concept as it aims to consolidate the building blocks for viable and diversified growth going forward✈️ #mexicanaviation #regionalairlines #aviationindustry #airtransportation

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A Category 1 jinx? We are fast approaching the one year anniversary of the FAA's reinstatement of Mexico’s Category 1 certification. The reasonable expectation at that time was that an assertive increase in pent-up transborder capacity by the Mexican side would result once all frequency and operational restrictions were lifted, providing further impulse to a market characterized by dynamic growth fueled by US airlines, as evidenced by the peak of the 2023-24 winter season last December. One year later, however, the picture is shaping up to be radically different. Even though Mexican carriers have made good inroads, increasing their collective published seats into the USA by more than 15% vs. pre-Category 1, in contrast US airlines show a 9% seat decrease, with Mexico’s share improving from 35% to 41%. In absolute terms, Aeromexico has recorded the largest gains, whereas Viva Aerobus has done so percentage-wise. For their part, combined seats for traditional market share leaders American and United have receded 15%, with third largest US player Delta’s seat capacity remaining stable, meaning US carrier growth is being largely explained by other, relatively smaller competitors (all of which do not serve AICM, by the way). Might the winter season ahead offer a rosier perspective, given the typical late Q4 to end of Q1 seasonality trends favoring US airlines due to natural demand spikes in sun-seeking resort markets, compounded by an array of new routes (recently launched and/or announced) by the big three Mexican airlines? The answer, so far, appears to be negative.  Currently published seats for the upcoming 2024-25 winter season are essentially flat, looking at December 2024 YoY. Even though the weeks to come are likely to feature the publication of new frequency transborder services, the future of the Aeromexico-Delta strategic joint venture is still hanging in the balance, which could adversely impact several of their risk-sharing routes, in case it is in fact terminated. No, I don't think there is a Category 1 jinx. But the bottom line is that Mexico's aviation industry has lost a tremendous amount of momentum since its restoration last September, especially when factoring in the domestic market capacity woes I have discussed at length in recent posts✈️ #Mexicanaviation #airlines #aviationindustry #airtransportation

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Now streaming! The current election-charged context and outcomes in both Mexico and the United States will inevitably affect, and might even reshape, the aviation agenda between the two countries for years to come. I shared my perspective with Kofi Sonokpon during his latest Airline Profits Executive Interviews podcast. Just one click away✈️ https://lnkd.in/gBbX88VQ #aviationindustry #airlines #airports #airtransportation #commercialaviation

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Mexico is now the leading international air travel market from the US having overtaken Canada. According to AIR SERVICE ONE analysis of Cirium schedules data, international seat capacity from the USA in 2024 Q3 is up 4.7% versus 2019 Q3. The US currently has non-stop flights to 100 international countries/territories down from 107 five years ago. Apart from Russia and Ukraine there are also no longer non-stop flights to Azerbaijan, Cape Verde, Hungary or Uruguay. China, which ranked seventh in 2019 Q3 is now only 27th with capacity still down 74%. Sweden is still down 56%, Hong Kong down 46%, Argentina 42%, Cuba 37% and Australia 30%.

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Great to finally see some movement and focus by Stakeholders to eliminate one of the many fake scam websites who are ripping off consumers by claiming they are authorized collection sites in #Mexico - #cancun #tulum and #playadelcarmen State of Quintana Roo- Travelkore Inc. continues to invest and build a robust platform for safe and secure transactions as "The Official Partner " of the State Government. For the benefit and to ensure a hassle free experience Airlines, Travel Agents, Tour Operators should be providing direction and accurate information related to this Manadatory Tourism Levy. Air Canada Air Transat WestJet Delta Air Lines Flair Airlines American Airlines United Airlines Southwest Airlines Spirit Airlines Delta Air Lines British Airways Copa Airlines Aeromexico Mexicana de Aviación Fareportal Expedia Group FlightHub Flight Centre Travel Group Maritime Travel Flair Airlines Alaska Airlines

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Ex-centric? In Q1 2025, AICM (MEX) and GDL airports will account for about the same number of published departing seats offered by the big three Mexican airlines to the USA, a testament to GDL's air service development largely spurred by Volaris, on top of more recent capacity additions by its two local competitors, not to mention MEX's woes. In contrast to Q1 2019, MEX's share has decreased from 48% to 37% while GDL's has increased from 31% to 36%. By Q2 next year, GDL will likely become Mexican carriers' leading airport for US service by seats offered, which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. MTY is also experiencing a big Mexican airline US capacity surge, tripling its share from 4% to 12% in the same time period. MEX's fragile position as Latin America's leading pax airport continues to hang by a thread, with a focus mostly on cosmetic surgery, rather than committing to restoring its operational capabilities and improving its fatigued infrastructure with a long-term strategic perspective. NLU, with a 0.8% participation, has so far been of marginal impact as a complementary airport for US service. Bottom line: Connecting traffic centricity in MEX has not only weakened in recent years with expanding P2P alternatives, it is now also further eroding due to traffic shifts to alternative airports with room to grow and capable of providing a much better customer experience. A trend involving far-reaching implications that indeed now appears to be irreversible✈️ #mexicanaviation #airports #airlines #aviationindustry #airtransportation #networkstrategy #airservicedevelopment

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The Argentine government has authorized airlines from Chile, Peru, and the Dominican Republic to operate new routes to and from Argentina. This move is part of a broader strategy to open the skies and increase connectivity with neighboring countries. Airlines and New Routes: Sky Airline (Chile): Sky Airline has announced a new seasonal route from Santiago, Chile, to El Calafate, Argentina. This route will operate twice weekly from December 18, 2024, to March 16, 2025. It marks Sky's sixth route to Argentina and is notable for being the first regular international flight to El Calafate, providing direct access to the Perito Moreno glacier. AraJet (Dominican Republic): AraJet has launched a new direct route between Santo Domingo and Buenos Aires. This route connects the two capital cities directly for the first time and is operated by Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft. The flights are scheduled three times a week, making it one of the longest non-stop routes for the aircraft model. JetSMART (Peru): JetSMART is expanding its operations in Argentina as part of a broader deregulation effort by the Argentine government. The airline has increased its fleet in Argentina, aiming to enhance its service offerings in the domestic market. Although specific new routes were not detailed in the sources, JetSMART's expansion reflects its commitment to increasing connectivity within Argentina. Impact Authorizing these new routes is expected to enhance tourism and business travel between Argentina and these countries. By increasing the number of flights and destinations available, travelers will have more options and potentially lower costs due to increased competition among airlines. This policy aligns with Argentina's efforts to deregulate its aviation industry and promote greater international connectivity.

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Save the Date

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To my entire network on Linkedin there is a continued effort by some Airlines, Travel Agents and Tour Operators to encourage travelers to break the law & ignore the Tourism Tax lawfully implemented in the State Quintana Roo. Here are some obvious reasons why tourism industry organizations should be encouraging compliance: 1. Environmental Protection and Sustainability The tourism tax is used to fund environmental protection initiatives, including coastal and marine conservation. As Quintana Roo is home to vital ecosystems like the Mesoamerican Reef, a portion of tax revenue goes directly to preserving these ecosystems, ensuring that popular destinations like Cancun and Tulum remain attractive and sustainable. 2. Community Development Revenue from the tax is also allocated toward infrastructure improvements and community projects. Tourists and companies benefit from safe and efficient transportation, enhanced waste management, and well-maintained public facilities, which contribute to an overall better travel experience and quality of life for local communities. 3. Enhanced Visitor Experience The funds generated are reinvested into developing tourist attractions and improving visitor services, from better-maintained beaches to upgraded facilities at popular sites. By supporting the tax, visitors contribute directly to making the area safer, cleaner, and more welcoming, benefiting everyone. 4. Economic Growth and Job Creation The tourism industry is the backbone of Quintana Roo’s economy. Tax revenue helps fund initiatives that support small businesses and create jobs, particularly for local residents. This ensures sustainable economic growth and encourages a more equitable distribution of resources within the community. 5. Responsible Tourism and Positive Impact Paying the tax allows tourists and travel companies to become more responsible consumers of destinations, helping to preserve Quintana Roo’s natural and cultural heritage. Compliance with local policies demonstrates a commitment to sustainable tourism, aligns with eco-friendly values, and sends a positive message to other travelers and industry stakeholders. Supporting the tourism tax is a way for tourists and businesses to contribute to the long-term preservation and enhancement of Quintana Roo, ensuring it remains a vibrant destination for years to come. The States reaction now : Cancun Airport (departure), terminal 2, 11:55am: Oct 31/24. This is not a busy time at the airport, however as the season picks up this is going to be a major inconvenience. I guess the old addage of "be careful what you preach" applies here. www.travelkore.com #mexico #cancun #playadelcarmen #tulum #StateofQuintanaroo #tourism #resonsibletourism #travel Air Canada WestJet Flair Airlines Air Transat Delta Air LinesSouthwest Airlines Copa Airlines Virgin Atlantic TUI British Airways Expedia Group Fareportal Travelkore Inc. Alaska Airlines

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"Septihambre" (Septemberhunger, sort of). In spite of structural changes in the Mexican airline industry that have softened seasonal variations in demand vs. earlier days, local airlines are usually weary of transitioning from the peak of the July/August summer holidays to the much softer weeks that typically follow through the early Fall. What is this year's month of September outlook for the depressed Mexican domestic market? Attention needs to be paid to the Big Three airlines, explaining 99% of the market capacity and demand-wise. Arguably, their first "normal" post-pandemic year was 2023. Last year, MoM September departures and demand decreased by a combined 11% and 15%, respectively. Call it a relatively decent balance. Back in 2019, the equivalent figures were a bit better balanced, but within the same order of magnitude, at 10% and 12% (source AFAC). As we near September, after 8.5 months in the domestic market doldrums, OAG data show a combined MoM reduction of 6.5% in the number of monthly flights published, which is slightly less than half the pullback implemented last year. YoY flights point to Volaris (-19%) and Aeromexico (-11%) exercising a more disciplined approach to the change of the seasons, while Viva Aerobus continues its quest for market share supremacy by significantly boosting its national schedule (+13%). Overall, average seats per domestic departure YoY are pretty steady for the Big Three, ca. 180 seats. Viva's implementation of the Avion Express capacity purchase is evidenced by a 5% gauge reduction, given the substitution of a portion of its A321s with smaller A320s. Similarly, Aeromexico's boost of B737 operations is reflected in a 6% increase in average seats. Volaris for its part shows a marginal 1% increase. The current state of local affairs, with political and economic volatility in the air, makes me scratch my head regarding which airline's game plan is best, capacity planning wise, to cope with what IHMO promises to be a very challenging September. I anticipate fares to soften, but supported by relatively good momentum, which will be positive for pricing traction, especially in the densest core markets. Secondary and more fringe routes may probably not "fare" as well. My old faithful crystal ball suggests prudence to be the better part of valor. Make your bets!✈️ #mexicanaviation #airtransportation #airlines

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I tend to post articles about airlines and aviation, but this post differs. We often think of tourism as a way to experience something new. A new type of tourism is becoming increasingly popular: medical tourism. Please take a minute to listen to my old leader's excellent new company below.

Sharp drop. About one year after Mexico's AFAC was able to recover the Category 1 certification, the USA transborder market has lost some of its luster, falling from the second to the fourth spot in the top global country pair standings measured by OAG seats published in September, its worst ranking since pre-pandemic days. Over the past four years, Mexico-USA had either led or trailed only Spain-UK in the top position. In addition, Canada-USA has pulled ahead as the world's largest transborder market, reclaiming the title from Mexico-USA after well more than half a decade. Bottom line: I see this as a seasonal slump that should be reversed in late 2024 to early 2025. Even though I expect the Mexico-USA country pair to reclaim top honors by next Q1, IMHO the softening of its capacity growth rate should be seen as an early warning of a potentially longer-lasting slowdown✈️ #mexicanaviation #aviationindustry #airtransportation #commercialaviation #airlines

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Mexico and the United States are nearing a crossroads in the months ahead, involving a highly complex bilateral political context surrounding the aviation industry. My sincere appreciation to Robby Silk, Travel Weekly's senior editor for aviation, for his invitation to feature some of my views on this matter in his recent article✈️ #aviationindustry #airtransportation #aviationnews

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