Michael Turner

Is China landing its Chang’e 6 #Moon mission in the Apollo crater to signal the US of a race? Did China choose the same landing sites as the US for Chang’e 7? In this week’s Moon Monday, I question these claims & narratives, and dive into actual details of these #space missions: https://lnkd.in/dQdGq_xP 🇨🇳🌗🇺🇸

4

https://lnkd.in/gyymupkF Firstly, according to Politico, Ursula von der Leyen stated that if re-elected as President of the European Commission, she will deter China from invading Taiwan during her term. She emphasized cooperation with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia to prevent China from unilaterally changing the status quo by military means, especially concerning Taiwan. Her statement has garnered international attention as the US military assesses that China might invade Taiwan by 2027, coinciding with her second term. Next, news related to Taiwan's defense. Japanese and Taiwanese maritime security agencies conducted a joint search and rescue drill in the waters south of the Boso Peninsula in Chiba Prefecture. This was the first joint exercise between the two countries, aiming to enhance cooperation in maritime activities. Although the exercise was not publicized, it reflects certain concerns about China. Professor Tetsuo Kotani emphasized that this drill helps to foster mutual understanding and build consensus, while ongoing dialogue with China remains essential. Lastly, let's look at the analysis of China's military exercises. The Japanese government analysis indicates that China has the capability to land in Taiwan within a week, significantly shorter than the previous estimate of one month. The Chinese military might exploit the gap in the US response for a short-term offensive. Japan has thus heightened its alertness, considering that China might engage in a "hybrid war" combining military and cyber attacks to delay US intervention. The Japanese government must swiftly decide on measures to protect Japanese nationals in Taiwan and evacuate residents from the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture.

2

Could the recent actions in the South China Sea spark global repercussions? This question looms large as the Group of Seven (G7) voices strong objections to China's intensifying military presence and coercive maneuvers in this critical maritime region. #2016ArbitralAward #ChinasmilitarizationinSCS #Chinasninedashlineclaim #G7foreignministerscommuniqué #G7sstanceonChina #Internationalcommunityreaction #Internationallawandnavigation #PeacefulresolutioninSCS #Philippinesmaritimesovereignty #SouthChinaSeatensions

1

With the national election just 4 days away, Gearoid Reidy, who is noted for his balanced approach to Japanese politics, lays out the situation pretty well. The LDP currently holds on its own a majority of the 465 seats in the Lower House. That it will lose that solo majority is virtually certain if the polls are even directionally accurate, and the remaining question is whether the LDP can hold a STABLE majority (a bit more than a simple majority) together with its partner, the more CCP China-friendly, pacifist-leaning Komeito. Earlier periods when the LDP was heavily dependent on Komeito to pass its legislative agenda have resulted in overall delays and a loss of clarity and decisiveness in its national security agenda. PM Ishiba won the recent LDP President election with round 2 deals struck with the very unpopular former PM Kishida to retain his predecessor's policies and place Kishida allies in critical cabinet roles. The combination of hitching himself to those unpopular policies, Ishiba's fumbling on his supposed "big ideas" such as an "Asian NATO" that, as expected, had no substance to them, flipflopping on election timing and BOJ interest rate increases, and the continuation of Kishida's complete mismanagement of the LDP party funds reporting scandal (including "dovish" Kishida's personal vendetta against the conservative wing of the LDP) means that Ishiba has NOT delivered on the only thing he was selected by the Kishida camp to do - present a competent but "reformed" LDP. My earlier predictions that an Ishiba administration would most likely not celebrate a one year anniversary and might well not last to the Upper House election next summer seem to be on track. It now seems quite possible that after 12 years of stability after Abe Shinzo's return to the PM chair in 2012, Japanese politics will be returning to a period of party realignments both on the LDP ruling party side as well as among the opposition parties after the results of October 27 are all tallied. If things do not go well for the LDP in that process, Kishida Fumio will own that, and any secret hopes he might have had for Kishida 2.0 will evaporate. https://lnkd.in/gp4bT65P

12

2件のコメント

This policy change on the export of Japanese defense equipment will be on the table for the next PM of Japan since the Kishida administration just kicked it down the road. The proposed policy change document calls for allowing exports beyond the current five low-lethality uses of rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and minesweeping. It would still retain the three core principles of arms exports on which the categories are based. Those prohibit transfers to countries involved in conflicts, allow them in cases that promote international cooperation or Japan's security, and require that the equipment will not be used for other applications or transferred to third countries without Tokyo's advance approval. One can be confident that if any of the "soft on CCP China" candidates win the LDP presidential election on Sept. 27, this eminently rational and still strictly controlled export policy will immediately go to the garbage can. https://lnkd.in/drFqhBSY

16

4件のコメント

Another excellent article from a Seoul defense think-tank expert, Ju Hyung Kim, on closer integration of the missile defenses of South Korea and Japan, including the new counter-strike capability that Japan will begin deploying in 2025. I find it remarkable and am delighted to see this level of cooperation and sharing, and I look forward to seeing these plans implemented during the term of the courageous President Yoon.

25

So here we are in Japan. Entirely anticlimactic after the election debacle he engineered on Oct. 27 with the egging on and backroom machinations of Kishida, Suga, and Koizumi. Ishiba and his cabinet, on day 41 of his first utterly unproductive administration, in accordance with the law, resigned en masse this morning and then were re-elected this afternoon in the first runoff required in 30 years and in a strict party vote. In fact, it was worse than merely unproductive, as Ishiba managed to turn Ishin, a potential 38-seat center-right partner, at least on a policy-by-policy basis, into an angry, solid opponent who today announced they would categorically refuse to work with HIM, Ishiba. For now, Ishiba leads a minority government, a rarity in Japan, whose only task in the weeks ahead is to try and get a special budget passed in a special session and, if he, perchance, meets the US President-elect, not screw things up with this critical bilateral relationship any more than he already has with his ham-handed and half-baked ideas. Assuming he manages to at least accomplish this, I trust that the above-noted LDP leaders who maneuvered to place Ishiba in his ill-prepared role (N.B. being an outside kibitzer, does not, in fact, prepare one to actually lead a country), now put Japan ahead of themselves, and persuade him to resign as President of the LDP. In these increasingly dangerous and complex times, Japan needs an intelligent, articulate, and decisive leader who is both politically competent to manage the mashed-up domestic political situation he or she will inherit and who is resolutely committed to strengthening Japan's STAND-ALONE deterrence capabilities while working with partners of a like mind. Genuine respect (and true deterrence in the minds of those who threaten Japan) in the years ahead will come only to those who do what it takes to show they can defend themselves, doing their very best to make sure their partners show up when they need them the most. https://lnkd.in/gxnbCMpV

17

16件のコメント

China eyes Sea of Japan access via Russia-North Korea border river Proposal raises security concerns for Tokyo as Chinese maritime activity ramps up YUKIO TAJIMA, Nikkei staff writer June 14, 2024 11:03 JST BEIJING -- China, Russia and North Korea are expected to start discussions soon about allowing ships to navigate a border river into the Sea of Japan, which could have major security implications for Tokyo. The waterway, the Tumen River, flows east along the border of China and North Korea, and eventually also of Russia, before emptying into the Sea of Japan. Chinese vessels can currently only freely navigate the river until the village of Fangchuan, on the eastern end of landlocked Jilin province. Permission is required from both Russia and North Korea to navigate the remaining 15-kilometer stretch to the Sea of Japan. A Soviet-era, 7-meter-tall bridge also blocks the passage of larger vessels. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin included in a joint statement following a summit last month a mention that the countries will engage in a "constructive dialogue" with North Korea about the Tumen River. China historically held the area until the Russian Empire took control in the 1860s. China has repeatedly urged Russia and North Korea to allow Chinese vessels to navigate the river to the Sea of Japan, proposing the creation of a special economic zone along its banks. Russia used to be reluctant on the idea, concerned that it would increase China's influence in Northeast Asia. But its attitude is changing as the power dynamic between Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang shifts.

3

For 35 years, Japan has seen multiple periods of warming relations and ice-cold, always driven by the CCP agenda and never by what Japan did or said. The warming periods were generally linked directly to CCP domestic issues or their need to prioritize conflict with other countries. But they ALWAYS returned to ice cold when the priorities changed or their domestic issues improved. Xi has major domestic economic issues, plans with Russia and IR Iran in Ukraine and the Middle East are not going well, major trade disputes with EU and the US, and Trump may be back in January doubling tariffs and cutting CCP China off from its most profitable market. CCP China has quietly been warming up to Japan of late IN WORDS. So no surprise that India would be getting warmer treatment as well. And the UK under Labor. If one thinks that the CCP is ever going to modify long-term its intentions and actions to continue to take what it wants along the LOC, or its trade practices, I suggest a brief study of the CCP China and Japan relationship for insights into how this really works. As a result, Japan NEVER gets too excited during periods of ice-cold or warming, knowing full well they never last. Media does but we should not. Know CCP China by what it DOES Not by what it SAYS. https://lnkd.in/g86bRwuS

28

7件のコメント

China's moon probe Chang'e returns to Earth with lunar rocks China's Chang'e-6 lunar probe has successfully returned to Earth with the first-ever samples collected from the far side of the Moon. The probe landed in China's Inner Mongolia region, carrying approximately 2 kg of rock and soil samples from the Moon's South Pole-Aitken basin. This is a significant achievement, as China is the only country to have landed a probe on the far side of the Moon, which is the hemisphere that always faces away from Earth. The samples are expected to provide valuable insights into the formation and geological history of the Moon, including the possibility of uncovering traces of ancient volcanic activity and meteorite impacts. Scientists from around the world are eager to study these samples, though China has noted that cooperation with the United States may be limited due to existing restrictions. Overall, the successful return of the Chang'e-6 probe marks a major milestone in China's ambitious lunar exploration program, which aims to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030. Important Takeaways :- [1] Chang'e-6: China's space probe returns with rare Moon rocks [2] China's Chang'e 6 lunar probe returns to Earth with first-ever samples. [3] China's Chang'e-6 lunar probe lands back on Earth with rare Moon rock . [4] China's lunar probe Chang'e-6 returns from far side of the moon [5] China calls on scientists of all nations to study lunar samples. **Potential scientific discoveries from the Chang'e-6 samples The Chang'e-6 lunar probe has successfully returned to Earth with the first-ever samples collected from the far side of the Moon, which could provide valuable insights into the formation and geological history of the lunar surface. The samples, weighing around 2 kg, were collected from the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) Basin, the largest known impact crater in the inner solar system. Analyzing these samples could help scientists better understand the differences between the near and far sides of the Moon, which remain one of the greatest mysteries about our lunar neighbor. Specifically, the Chang'e-6 samples may reveal new information about the composition, volcanic activity, and meteorite impacts on the far side of the Moon, which has been largely unexplored until now. The samples could also potentially uncover traces of the lunar lower crust or upper mantle, which are usually difficult to obtain. Overall, the Chang'e-6 samples are expected to significantly advance our scientific understanding of the Moon's formation and evolution, filling many gaps in current knowledge. The international scientific community has shown great interest in studying these samples, which could lead to groundbreaking discoveries. Important Takeaways:- [1] Chinese scientists anticipate Chang'e-6 samples to unravel moon mystery [2] China opens Chang'e 6 return capsule containing samples from far side of the moon [3] Chang'e 6 also took photos of the lunar surface

2

Waka Mizuno's post tells the story of most Japanese women, and it is something that policymakers and business leaders in Japan should read. I also have a story to share.... My friend is a female manager at a Japanese trading company, and she had an incredibly talented woman working as a contract employee under her. However, as the contract was about to expire, my friend encouraged this woman to apply for a permanent position, and the woman was eager to become a regular employee. However, she failed the written test for the regular employment role, and despite my friend's repeated discussions with the HR department, they were ultimately unable to hire the woman. She had to leave the company in tears, and my friend was left with a profound sense of disappointment at the system's failure. Meanwhile, young employees in their 30s constantly quit at my friend's company, and the company is always understaffed. While employment mobility is occurring, it seems limited to "young, regular employees." Many women in their 40s and 50s have valuable skills, but due to the social norm of "shifting from full-time to part-time work after marriage and having children," they have either resigned due to their husband's job transfers or been unable to work in the same way as men and had to quit for childcare reasons. After their children have grown up, most of these women have been employed in non-regular positions (haken or keiyaku or pa-to) and cannot transition from there. In the workplace, they are sometimes referred to as "Haken-san, (temp staff)" or "Pa-to-san(part-timers)" and not addressed by their names. What are your thoughts on this modern "class system" in Japan?

3

1件のコメント