Ramsubramaniam Barathy, MS, MBA, CFTe

Today's Headlines from : *Economic Times* 📝 Up to 75 pc of GST revenue comes from 18 pc slab: MoS Finance 📝 TCIL may offload 5-10% stake in Bharti Hexacom 📝 Oxford study commends India's 'PRAGATI' model to boost infra 📝 Promoters Samina and Rumana Hamied exit Cipla; sell 1.72 pc stake for Rs 2,111 crore 📝 Flexible workspace provider Smartworks receives SEBI approval for IPO 📝 Panschil Realty’s hospitality arm receives SEBI approval for a Rs 2,000 crore IPO 📝 RBI asks banks to bring down inoperative accounts urgently, report their numbers quarterly 📝 Nazara Technologies invests Rs 196 crore in new startups, subsidiaries 📝 Prosus invests $80 million in supply chain finance startup Mintifi for 10.6% stake 📝 RaptorX raise funds in a pre-seed round from Peak XV Spark, EagleWings Ventures, Point One Capital among others 📝 Employee engagement platform AdvantageClub AI raises $4 million *Business Standard* 📝 Rupee stares at 85 against dollar amid GDP worries, hits fresh low of 84.70 📝 FAME-II violations: SFIO conducts search operations at 3 companies 📝 Ola Electric fires up plans for 4,000 store locations by end-December 📝 Vodafone Idea becomes latest telco to launch AI-based spam detection filter 📝 Tata International, Tata Motors start vehicle scrapping facility in Pune 📝 HC sets aside ITAT order declining stay on Rs 1,200 cr demand on Samsung 📝 Punjab & Sind Bank eyeing Rs 3,000 crore through infrastructure bonds 📝 Swiggy expands its 10-minute delivery offering 'Bolt' to over 400 cities 📝 Gopalpur Ports' credit rating upgraded 6 notches post-acquisition by APSEZ 📝 MGNREGA work demand up 4% in November as farm sowing ends, shows data 📝 India's potential GDP growth is in range of 6.5-7%, says CEA Nageswaran 📝 Coal India's total production up by 2% to 471 million tonnes in Apr-Nov 📝 Corporation tax paid by listed companies at 4-year low in Q2 FY25 📝 Windfall tax on domestic oil, fuel exports scrapped with immediate effect 📝 Razorpay partners MHA and I4C to boost digital payments security 📝 PhonePe discontinues its partnership with payment aggregator Juspay 📝 Top Indian cities report about 1 million unsold housing units: Study 📝 PSBs at only 42% of FY25 MUDRA disbursement target by October-end 📝 Electric vehicle sales down 12% in November after festival-driven rush *Financial Express* 📝 ONGC eyes mining of offshore minerals 📝 NBFCs asset growth to moderate to 15-17 per cent over two years 📝 Govt ropes in IIM Bangalore, others to assess impact of PM Internship Scheme 📝 Rabi sowing gathers pace, up 4 per cent on year 📝 Sebi orders attachment of bank, demat accounts of Reliance Big Entertainment 📝 India’s manufacturing PMI drops to 11-month low of 56.5 amid intensifying price pressures, weak demand 📝 Torrent Power opens QIP, sets price Rs 1,555.75 per share

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Much ado about FDI flows redux? In 2015, the Financial Times ran a story of India overtaking China’s FDI flows, and it was exemplified to affirm the success of the "Make in India" theme. Ironically, from such exuberance to the recent exasperation over contracting FDIs, the sentiment has shifted diametrically. This latest report in India Today echoes what we wrote nine years ago: “Much ado about foreign investment flows" (https://lnkd.in/dPF6wzpv). The India Today story draws from one of our recent research work.

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Analyzing Hindenburg's Latest Report Hindenburg Research's new report raises questions about connections between SEBI chief Madhabi Puri Buch and Adani-linked entities through a Mauritius-based fund. The report also highlights potential conflicts of interest in SEBI's corporate governance committee. Should officials with potential conflicts have recused themselves? How can we ensure regulatory integrity in such complex scenarios? #RegulatoryOversight #CorporateGovernance #FinancialInvestigations

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What do you think of mutual funds with traders mindset: Sebi suspects front-running in Sandeep Tandon-owned Quant Mutual Fund; conducts search and seizure operations https://lnkd.in/gEQFPn2s

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Crease lines have appeared on foreheads following a recent Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) related article on the disclosure of #SideLetters ( in comments) This prompted me to advance my planned piece for the #LP Series In an AIF Trust (VC-managed fund), an LP's rights are akin to those of any shareholder, such as those in Reliance Industries Limited—every share purchased confers the same rights But does this equality hold true in the VC world ? Lets examine this proposed step by #SEBI ✅ What are #SideLetters? These are private agreements between : ✳️An LP and a VC firm ✳️'Advisors' and a VC firm ✳️Founding partner and 'Advisors' unbeknownst to other members of IC ! Categories of #SideLetters : ✳️Reasonable and Transparent: ✅LP #1 invests Rs 100cr in a fund and is charged a lower annual fee of 1.5%, compared to 2% for smaller LPs ✅Large LP #2 pays a performance fee (carry) of 10%, while smaller ones pay 20% These terms are executed with the AIF trust ( where LPs pool their monies) and are reflected as different unit classes in the #PPM registered with SEBI and shared with all LPs. No problems with these ✳️Doubtful and Opaque : ✅Managing Partner of VC Fund A invests in VC Fund B personally. When VC Fund A invests in a portfolio company of Fund B marking it up, could this lead to a conflict of interest ? 😑 ✅Partner of a Global VC A holds a 10% share of Carry in VC Fund B as part of an engagement letter, which involves promoting Fund B in influential circles they move around in ! This Partner is not on their website or fund pitch deck 😶 ✅An LP lodges a complaint via SCORES due to material changes, and the VC firm signs a #SideLetter capping their commitment incl a confidentiality clause Unlike the #transparent contracts executed with the AIF trust ( under purview of SEBI), these are made with the VC firm (LLP or Pvt Ltd company) to escape disclosure requirements, leading to ✳️Non-disclosure or incomplete disclosure ✳️Conflicts of interest ✳️Misuse of fees and expenses ✳️Changes in investment conditions As the industry evolves, with increasing funds, LPs, and employees, SEBI's latest move to enhance disclosure and protect LP interests is commendable It aims to professionalize and truly Institutionalise the sector, bringing it closer to the standards of Public Mutual Funds #LPs evaluating VC firms or questioning their current ones should consider this key question: ✅ Can you share all #sideletters executed by your VC Firm entity with any LP/ Advisor / Fund Manager/ Any other person that have a bearing on the deployment of my Funds ( incl incentives to team) and its returns ? ✅ Did any member of the IC/ Key persons/ Designated partner of the VC firm purchase any shares of any folio company or any other Fund under their name or their related parties, without making a full disclosure and permission from LPs ? #transparency #VCreset2024 #venturecapital #governance

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Hi Friends, It's been four months since the launch of our live Rs 1cr portfolio, 𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗽 𝟱.𝟯𝟰% 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻, 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹. The portfolio aims for a 15% absolute return on a CAGR basis through flexible asset allocation across regions. Despite our bond-heavy portfolio, our ongoing risk assessment, measured by the 1-year 97.5% VaR, comfortably stays within the Rs 15 lakh limit, implying a low risk of significant drawdowns. Regarding domestic bonds, we hold a positive view and prefer long-duration investments. Recent developments, such as the US Federal Reserve's decision to reduce Quantitative Tightening (QT) to $25bn monthly from June, alongside weak US data, are expected to moderate longer-term yield growth. Locally, the government's buyback of Rs 10,000cr of FY25 bonds, with plans for an additional Rs 60,000cr buyback, will reduce fiscal gross supply. We anticipate potential bond rallies, particularly if the NDA secures a convincing mandate, possibly pushing the 10-year yield beyond the 7% mark, given the regime's commitment to fiscal consolidation. Fixed income currently represents 68% of our portfolio. Recent market pressure has affected domestic equities, with only Auto and FMCG sectors seeing gains. Despite concerns about small and midcap valuations, we remain confident in large-cap earnings projections for FY25. We plan to increase allocation to large caps during market dips, shifting from fixed income. Internationally, 𝘄𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟭𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟰% 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. Our overall allocation to equities stands at 21%. For commodities, we maintain a neutral stance on base metals and energy but are bullish on precious metals. 𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗨𝗦 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗘𝗩, 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀, 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗺 For gold and silver, despite recent consolidation, we continue to allocate slightly over 5% of our portfolio to both gold and silver, which have yielded returns of 17% each since inception. In FX, despite our view favoring a weaker Dollar, regulatory constraints have led us to unwind certain positions in EUR/INR and USD/INR. Restrictions on exchange-traded currency derivatives hinder our ability to express FX views. For insights into our 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗠𝗧𝗠, click on the image below:

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Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) come with significant benefits like reduced settlement risks and increased financial inclusion. However, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra warns that CBDCs could potentially become "safe havens" during crises. This could lead to higher risks for bank deposits, especially uninsured ones, making them more susceptible to withdrawals and even potential bank runs. (https://lnkd.in/dN6gjVvX) #CBDC #RBI #FinancialInclusion

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Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)’s move to halt online platforms dealing with unlisted bonds signals its evolving approach to new-age businesses. While oversight is vital for investor protection, it raises a key question: Should regulators focus on cracking down or building frameworks that foster innovation and compliance? altGraaf - Powered by AI Growth Tap Invest #Regulation #Innovation #Compliance

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COALINDIA making a successful break-out from Bullish H&S with volume spike in Daily sessions chart. #Coalindia #Energy #Investment #Investments #Stockmarket #Swingtrade #NSE #BSE #India

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High-Frequency Trading in India: Profits for Some, Pitfalls for Retail Investors - Regulators on Standby. ⏯️   With recent regulatory developments, high-frequency trading within the nation's premier derivatives markets now stand perilously on the knife's edge. Perhaps we have just witnessed the "final straw" when it comes to the regulatory lull.   Last week, the world witnessed HFT venues generate soaring profits of over US $7 Billion on the highly liquid India Futures & Options markets; A stark contrast to the $7.3 Billion loss eaten by domestic retail investors - https://lnkd.in/g6WkDNHj 🤔   Regulators continue to watch on as foreign firms, like Jane Street, reportedly earned more than a billion USD on just one of their many Indian market strategies.   All of this comes in the wake of this summer's regulatory shift aiming to ease pressure on Indian Options Markets - https://lnkd.in/gFseF4R8   From my conversations, the general sentiment is: "Maybe the clock is ticking". ⏱️ Although, with more foreign firms registering for local brokerage licenses, it would seem that for many, there's still time left - are we now playing in overtime? https://lnkd.in/gj28zDqE   Thoughts? 💡   [email protected] | +852 5645 6219 | Kin Search   #nifty50 #bse #nse #mcx #indiahft #indiaoptions #optionsmarketmaking #omm #hft #hftindia #highfrequencytrading #indexoptions #commodityoptions

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Hi Friends, It's been seven months since the launch of our live Rs 1cr portfolio, 𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗽 𝟴.𝟰𝟵% since then, thanks to our 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 strategies playing out well. The portfolio is managed to target a 𝟭𝟱% 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗶𝘀 through dynamic, opportunistic multi-asset, multi-geography allocation. Given our current portfolio skew towards bonds, the risk parameter that we monitor on an ongoing basis i.e. 1y 97.5% VaR, is comfortably within the Rs 15 lakh limit set, thereby making any outsized drawdown unlikely. Below is a summary of our allocation rationale and rebalancing opportunities: Equities: Nifty briefly crossed 25,000 but retraced due to global risk aversion from weak US data and tighter policy by the Bank of Japan. Despite this, Nifty only declined 0.5% over the month, while the MSCI EM index and S&P500 dropped 5%. The Midcap index stayed flat. Shanghai and Hang Seng fell 3.6% and 6.6% respectively. We expect Indian and Chinese equities to outperform and want to increase our exposure. 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆, 𝟮𝟮% 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝟭𝟱% 𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀. Bonds and Rates: US treasury yields fell 35-50bps across the curve as weaker US labor markets and cooling inflation led to expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. In India, the 10-year benchmark yield dropped 10bps, but a hawkish RBI limited further gains. With low CPI, stable fiscal conditions, and strong demand, we expect bond yields to remain capped—𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆, 𝟲𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀. FX: A hawkish BoJ and weak US labor data triggered a global risk-off, leading to significant carry trade unwinding. Currencies like CNH and JPY strengthened, but have since given back some gains. The Rupee, a major carry trade beneficiary, was the worst-performing Asian currency in the past month as its overvaluation corrected. 𝗪𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗮 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗯𝗶𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿𝘀 but have no active positions in this asset class. Commodities: 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝟮.𝟱% 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of lower US rates. 𝗦𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝟭𝟬%, presenting a buying opportunity. Copper is down 10% in the past month and 20% since May highs. We remain bullish on precious metals and expect some recovery in industrial metals. With ongoing geopolitical risks, we see limited downside for crude. 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘂𝗽 𝟭𝟯% 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼. For insights into our current portfolio allocation and real-time MTM, click on the link below:

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What the SEBI Report Left Unsaid Friends, In this video - https://lnkd.in/d4j92-hX I discuss what SEBI's derivatives regulations left unsaid. How your trading will be impacted when new rules come into effect. Like the video? Please share, subscribe, comment and like.

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Ref to wonderful artcile written by Sudhanshu Kanwar, CFA, CQF which I take the oppurtunity to share again as below- https://lnkd.in/giyUB2qy #Bond buying isn't as straightforward for the average retail investor as it might seem. Opportunity costs exist in debt instruments too. To ensure optimal #AssetAllocation, it's essential to deploy funds wisely—whether for near-term requirements, capitalizing on the right opportunities, or reinvesting profits from a bullish market. Unfortunately, many overlook this critical aspect in their #InvestmentJourney as least spoken subject is #assetallocation Navigating volatile markets requires informed decisions and strategic guidance. Feel free to reach out at [email protected] for tailored insights and handholding to make the most of your investments. #personalfinance #mutualfundssahihai #investments

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Climate, Protocol and Exponential Thinking Every time I listen to the trio of Mr. Nandan, Pramod Varma and sujith nair, a few nodes get unlocked. I have had the enviable privilege of being at this fountainhead a few times. Every time, a few vistas open up that help us to see how we can solve problems of population scale and at near 0 friction rates. Below are notes from 1.5 days spent at BeckN Node Zero Climate Conference. The protocol revolution v2 in India is still in its early days. If you are a founder or a VC, keen to explore this, drop me a line Special thanks to Anjali Bansal and Sanjay Purohit who presented on climate and exponential thinking 💡 DPI 2.0 ** India has solved access to identity - Aadhar ** India has solved access to money transfer - UPI ** India has solved access to trust - Digi Locker The 2.0 of all this is now beginning to manifest itself - DigiYatra, Credit on UPI, DigiLocker ++. It is amazing when you start to think of the number of successful companies that have scaled on the combinatorial power of these stacks - Flipkart to Zomato to Zerodha 📌 Most exciting new DPI - UEI. Think of UEI as the internet of energy. A protocol layer of bits built on atoms of the energy grid. While atoms of energy flow through cables, the bits of transfer, recon and payment continue to be archaic. As energy generation gets more de-centralised (Solar Panels for example), the ledger of energy cannot be a 2-way line anymore. Reach out to Akhil Jp and schedule atleast 2 hours 😀 🏝 Climate ▶ India’s culture has been of sustainability - We use every part of a tree, most families in India have a pile of shopping bags and re-use it. Not to forget the haggling with kabbadiwala for newspapers. This behaviour may have been prompted by constraints but is now the right behaviour ▶ The climate lens cannot be without capitalism - We need to balance all the three 3Ps - People, Profit and Planet. I personally like this so much more than ESG! ESG has become too generic and there is too much focus on G ▶ India cannot decarbonize. We can have a lower carbon footprint growth. Our founders may also be better off trying to solve this problem than a de-carbonisation problem ⏫ Exponential Thinking ▶ The Domino Effect - Mini to Mega - How can you topple a 10 meter tall domino with a 5 Cm starting domino? All you need are 13 dominos which are 1.5x taller than the previous one! Power of compounding - 1.5^13 = ~200x. (10 M is 33 ft!) a. Don’t stop the compounding b. Focus on the alignment that will ensure the kinetic energy is not dissipated c. A 100x outcome is possible with exponential thinking - Not N^2 but 2^N d. Please watch this video - https://lnkd.in/gebDTYRf ▶ Exponential problems need exponential solutions ▶ DPIs can solve exponential problems as an orchestrator and not as a conductor! ▶ A garden needs a gardener, a forest needs only enabling Thanks to Sattva Consulting team for putting this together

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-This Graph below shows 'cash in circulation' for India -Demonetization happened in 2016 -The next year i.e (FY 2017) shows a drop in circulation -Since then the 'cash in circulation' has been steadily growing YOY, reaching nearly 2.5x in 7 years and to a total of 34.78 lakh crore, INR -However during the same period (since 2017), India started witnessing surge in digital payments through the likes of QR, UPI, CC, NetBanking etc -While this correlation may have many perspectives. Certainly, there is enough ROOM for more Fintechs, Currency Digitalization & E-commerce in India 

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Hi Friends, It's been nine months since the launch of our live Rs 1cr portfolio, 𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗽 𝟭𝟲.𝟱% since then, thanks to our 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿, 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 strategies playing out well. The portfolio is managed so as to target a 𝟭𝟱% 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗶𝘀 (currently achieved because of stellar moves in Chinese equity and precious metals.) through dynamic, opportunistic multi-asset, multi-geography allocation. Given our current portfolio skew towards bonds, the risk parameter that we monitor on an ongoing basis i.e. 1y 97.5% VaR, is comfortably within the Rs 15 lakh limit set, thereby making any outsized drawdown unlikely Portfolio Allocation Summary and Rebalancing Opportunities Equities Global equities remained resilient despite rising geopolitical tensions, with the S&P 500 gaining 5% last month. China’s recent fiscal and monetary stimulus aimed at achieving 5% growth for 2024 led fund houses to shift allocations, reducing underweight positions in Chinese equities while trimming Indian holdings. The Shanghai Composite surged over 20%, while the Nifty stayed flat. 𝗪𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲. Bonds and Rates US labor data and stalled disinflation signal that the Fed may delay rate cuts. While markets had priced in 3 cuts for 2024, a November cut now seems unlikely. The recent sell-off in US treasuries offers a chance to add duration, as longer-term growth could weaken if the Fed holds steady. Domestically, 𝘄𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟲.𝟴𝟱-𝟲.𝟵𝟬% 𝘇𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. FX The US dollar strengthened post-Jobs report, but we maintain a bearish view on the dollar. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱, depending on the dollar's strength. We see value in shorting the dollar at current levels. Commodities 𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱, 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟰.𝟱% 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟴.𝟱%, 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆. We maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals. Crude prices rose due to geopolitical tensions but remain in a broader downtrend, with Brent potentially retesting $70 per barrel. For insights into our current portfolio allocation and real-time MTM, click on the link below:

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