Manish Lunia

How to identify Promoters extracting Money via High Salaries Learn when promoters put their personal interests above company and public shareholders. Identify early signs of promoters taking unjustified remuneration. https://lnkd.in/dicdJ4q .

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How to identify Promoters extracting Money via High Salaries Learn when promoters put their personal interests above company and public shareholders. Identify early signs of promoters taking unjustified remuneration. https://lnkd.in/dicdJ4q .

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I’ve been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis but talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote 26 years ago - before a Lok Sabha Election result.   The basic premise: one who holds 30 seats may have the same power, or even more, as compared to someone who holds 245 seats.   A mathematical Power Index explains how   Quote Let’s get on with the “Power Indices” of the various political parties.   Think of it this way : suppose you require a 50% plus majority to form a government and there are 3 parties in the parliament with the following seat tally : 44%, 39% and 17%.   Now, any two of these can join together to form the government and therefore all three of them have exactly equal power, no matter that Party 3 has got less than half the number of seats that the first two have. This is a concept that is of use in any ‘majority wins’ decision rule from shareholder resolutions to jury decisions.   Suppose there are 4 parties in the fray this time around: A, B, C and D parties, having 35%, 34%, 17% and 14% of the seats resp. Again if a simple majority is needed to form a government, any two out of A, B & C can form a government whereas the Party D’s support is never really crucial to anyone.   If this party’s 14% is added onto the percentages of any of the first three parties, the sum does not exceed 50% and any larger coalition of parties doesn’t require its support anyway. Party D is therefore called a ‘dummy’ - an apt term for someone whose vote can never change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   The dummy has no power, while all the other three parties i.e. A, B and C have equal power.   This is inspite of the fact that Party C has far fewer seats than A and B and only a few more than the smallest one i.e. Party D   For those interested, there is a technical concept called the Banzhaf Power Index (BPI) of a group, party or person which is defined as the number of ways in which that group, party or person can change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   In the preceding example, the BPI of parties A, B and C are equal and that of Party D is zero.    In fact as an individual MP, you are better-off being a part of Party C than Party A or B because as part of the government you get a disproportionate share of the goodies. This is exactly what happened in U.P. where virtually every MLA of a marginal party who joined the BJP government was made a minister - something that was a remote dream for most BJP MLAs.   Unquote (First Global's weekly 'Markets, Majorities and Maths', January 1998)   Thus if a few smaller partners can hold whichever coalition government to ransom, it introduces uncertainty.   “The more things change, the more they stay the same” Hence, I can repeat a 1998 piece which has contemporary parallels   We may be in for some interesting times.   History also shows coalition governments have been pretty good for the economy and markets.

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https://lnkd.in/gbsWykcF Indian family offices told me that Reliance Retail IPO will be a "super huge success" creating exceptional value for shareholders ! ( they also told that many billionaires are expected to queue outside Antilia for appointment with Isha Ambani !  I completely support their views and add my prediction that "2027 " will be Platinum,  Diamond year for Reliance Retail It's valuation can DEFINITELY jump by 60% to 80% in 2027( January, June and July will be Best months in 2027)  PS: If for any reason IPO is not done in 2025, then ,2027 should be the "blockbuster year" to plan it !  Qatar Investment Authority Zulfiquar Ghadiyali #relianceindustries  #swfs #institutionalinvestors  #familyoffices  #investors  #IndiasGrowth  #pmoindia  #pmoffice  #pefunds  #stocks  #IPO  #stockstowatch  #billionaires 

Decode #Budget2024 with 4 round table discussions I lead with top experts. The talks will help you unpack issues before Budget 2024 on topics both macro and micro. Understand how these issues affect you and your money. https://lnkd.in/giBDhQsP In partnership with Upstox Creative partner InOut

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Budget 2024 - Hits and misses - Bond markets Despite weakness in elections results and expectations of populist budget especially freebies for allies, we did not see the Govt deviating much from interim budget. Hits 1) Focus on fiscal consolidation Fiscal deficit reduced from 5.1% to 4.9% for FY 24-25 Roadmap paved out for further reduction in fiscal deficit to below 4.5% for FY 25-26 Over the last 3 years govt has reversed large part of fiscal impetus provided during covid. Fiscal deficit has seen a reduction from ~6.8% in 2022 to 4.9% in 2025 2) Budget paves way for medium term economic growth focuses on youth employment opportunities, tax rationalisation, credit to MSME , affordable housing and renewable energy 3) Fiscal maths is very credible and tax forecasts are conservative Govt might get possible upsides in tax revenues which might allow Govt to reduce some borrowing in Q4 RBI used surplus dividend of -INR 1.2 lacs partially to reduce fiscal deficit and partially towards increasing expenditure Misses 1) Though budget has announced policies for medium term growth , Big Bang consumption spending is missing Consumption growth and rural economy has been lagging for last 2 years and growth outlook can weaken if we don’t see private capex cycle taking off or if we get bad monsoon. 2) Govt used the buffer to reduce TBIll borrowing rather than dated securities Bond markets can be marginally disappointed in near term as they were expecting a ~INR 50k cut in govt bonds borrowing Implications and way forward for bond markets 1) Fiscal consolidation will likely pave way for some monetary easing over next 6-12 months Gross and net borrowing is reduced marginally by INR ~12000 crs. Favourable bond demand supply dynamics will lead yields to trend lower to 6.75% over next 6 months Lower Tbill supply for year by more than INR 80000 crs would lead to short end curve rates to rally Budget ensures policy continuity which will keep macro, inflation and external sector stable 2) Bond markets will take cues for further rally from Fed and RBI Monetary policy in next 15 days We expect Fed in lieu of weak Q2 economic data to guide markets for September rate cut RBI would continue to remain cautious and data dependent in Aug monetary policy We expect RBI to gradually ease its monetary policy stance if monsoons are normal and Fed cut policy rates in H2 All views are personal #RBI #budget #fiscaldeficit #monetarypolicy #fedpolicy #rates #bonds

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Explore the thrilling world of finance with the imminent Ola Electric IPO, where CA Nitin Sharma unravels the details, reviews the IPO, and navigates current market trends. Stay up-to-date on the latest IPOs this week, IPO news, and the grey market buzz surrounding the Ola Electric IPO while gaining insights into IPO allotment tricks, stock market movements, and share market news today. If you are looking for Ola Electric IPO listing gain data and upcoming IPOs in 2024, keep a close eye on reputable sources to provide you with the latest insights, market trends, and potential investment opportunities specific to IPOs in 2024. Our comprehensive coverage includes reviewing the financial report of the company, Sensex target, Sensex option trading, Nifty prediction, and live updates, offering a deep dive into intraday trading strategies and the latest IPO this week. Additionally, we delve into intriguing business ideas that could shape the future landscape. Subscribe now for an exclusive analysis of the Ola Electric IPO GMP today, real-time insights into IPO GMP, and the freshest IPO news. Whether you're an investor, trader, or simply intrigued by the latest business trends, this video is your ultimate source for all things related to Ola Electric IPO and the dynamic world of finance. Learn more about Ola Electric IPO grey market price, Ola Electric IPO details, and explore various business ideas. Don't miss out on this case study video on Ola Electric IPO review by CA Nitin Sharma. Hit that subscribe button, stay informed, and be ready to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving stock and share market. Remember to conduct thorough research when engaging in intraday trading or when buying and selling stocks, especially during IPO allotment. Join us for the latest IPO review and analysis, and keep track of the latest IPO GMP today, the latest IPO news, and the latest IPO details. Understand whether to apply or not for the Ola Electric IPO and whether it’s a buy or not. Stay informed with the latest IPO in the Indian stock market and make the best investment choices with our in-depth analysis. #stockmanthan #canitinsharma 🚀 Welcome to Stock Manthan – Your Financial Mastery Hub! 🚀 The world of relaxed value investing based upon fundamental analysis. Wish to know the process to select the quality stocks or multibagger stocks or say best stocks to invest upon by self, and build portfolio to avoid loss and earn consistently in the stock market? Refer Stock Manthan book to gain the required knowledge - https://amzn.to/45hjEN3 🌐 To reach out to CA Nitin Sharma, you can follow him on: 🔗 Telegram: https://t.me/stock_manthan 🔗 Website: https://lnkd.in/dqmjdrVq 🔗 Instagram: https://lnkd.in/d_77zRK9... 🔗 LinkeDin: https://lnkd.in/dghjK4fP... #nifty #sensex #bse #nse #bseindia #nseindia #sharemarket

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With Q2 GDP growth sharply lower than expected, the critical question is whether this is a temporary brake or we need to brace for slower growth ahead. Sharing my views on this

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The recent warning from SEBI about the excesses in the IPO market and telling the merchant bankers and accountants to give the right advice to companies reminded me of a nearly forgotten incident from the early years of my career. I think the year was 1989. SEBI was still to come into existence. Public issues, as they were called then, were regulated by the Finance ministry. At the time there was a requirement that if the project for which the money was being raised had not been appraised by a bank or financial institution for a term loan, the merchant banker had to do an appraisal. There was this company called Usha Rectifiers raising money for a television picture tube plant and some half a dozen other electronic items. My then employer was managing the issue. I was tasked with the appraisal. I remember researching the industry, even visiting the Bharat Electronics factory outside Delhi and so on. My conclusion was that the project did not make sense and this is what I told my superiors in the bank. PNV who headed merchant banking in India and was also a friend of the company promoter called me in and asked me to sign a favourable appraisal report. I said no. I still remember his words, "Do you want to write essays or do you want to do deals?" My response was somewhere along the lines of, "If I am not convinced, how can I ask people to put their money in this issue? I will not sign." I was a rookie, a couple of years out of MBA and PNV was several levels above me and held the keys to my increment and bonus, but I stood firm. I do not remember what finally happened on the deal but I definitely did not sign. This has been my motto throughout life - no matter how attractive the fees or money for me, if it does not make sense for the investor or the buyer I will never do it. I did not get tempted when we, at First Global, used to manage what are now called QIPs (Qualified Institutional placements) during the 90s, the most famous ones being the first couple of rounds for Bharti. The fees for a deal could be a crore or two which was huge money then and could have bought you a fancy place in Bombay (as it was then) but it never mattered to me. What mattered was whether I thought the stock would make money for the investor at that price. Today people ask me what is new in your PMS - they are looking for a new scheme for the latest theme. I know it is an easy way to garner assets and hence fees but as always, if it does not make sense to the investor I never recommend or even think about it. I may not get everything right but when I say or recommend something it has to be to the full extent of the professional competence and integrity that I have at my command at the time. Monetary pay off for myself never comes into the equation. THAT has never changed from the beginning of my career to now.

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SEBI announces changes to delisting regulations: Introduces fixed price framework for promoters Under the new fixed price mechanism, promoters can now offer to buy back all publicly held shares at a price that is at least 15% higher than the "fair price" of the stock. Read full story https://bit.ly/4eoIu2E

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The Assignment of portfolios to the Cabinet ministers yesterday under NDA 3.0 has given a clear signal of continuity to those who had apprehension pertaining to coalition politics. Most of the Senior Ministers of the previous Government have retained their Key Portfolios which clearly makes a statement of the Policy continuity in the direction of Growth Acceleration !! 📈. This also ensures that the reform momentum does not lose its pace, which has provided stability to the markets at higher levels. What gives even more confidence with respect to the stability factor is no controversial statements or disappointments being made by the allies w.r.t to the distribution of the portfolios. This is a big positive. 💡 Focus would now shift to the Union Budget in the coming month as well as the US Fed Action over the next few days which could act as a major trigger with respect to the Interest rate trajectory. Equally important would be the progress of Monsoon ⛈️ in the coming few days. Key Sectors to Watch out for : 🚄 Railways 🚆, 🏍️ Auto 🚕, Housing 🏠 & Infra, 🚀 Defense 🚁. Do share your views in the comments below about which sectors you would focus on !! SBI Securities Deepak Lalla Suresh Shukla #unioncabinet #elections2024 #NDA #Coalitionpolitics #stockmarket #growth #reforms #stability

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*News Headlines from Business News Agencies:* *Business Standard* 📝 P&G Hygiene net profit rises marginally to Rs 212 crore in Sep quarter 📝 Brics+ share in merchandise exports can overtake G7 by 2026: EY India 📝 IBBI, IBA to launch centralised platform for asset liquidation auctions 📝 Quick commerce led to closure of 200,000 kirana stores: Retailers' body 📝 Indian smartphone market value surges 12% in Q3 CY2024: Counterpoint 📝 SaaS firm Virtual Galaxy Infotech files draft IPO papers with NSE Emerge 📝 EFC REIT obtains Sebi registration to launch SM-REIT public issue 📝 Fastag collections on national highways estimated at Rs 72,500 crore 📝 Gold demand surpasses $100 billion globally as western investors rush in 📝 Petrol pump dealer commission raised, retail prices remain unchanged 📝 Govt mulls measures to boost strategic foreign investment from 5-year lows 📝 Revenue from Mumbai's property registrations in Oct rises 52%: Report *Economic Times* 📝 India's April-September fiscal deficit at Rs 4.75 lakh crore, narrows on-year to 29.4% of FY25 aim 📝 Dabur to acquire ayurvedic product maker Sesa Care for Rs 315-325 cr 📝 India's core sectors' growth increases 2% in September 📝 Airtel to move to 5G SA mode in 3-4 years 📝 India's gold imports jump 21.78 pc to USD 27 bn in Apr-Sep 📝 Patel Engineering offloads remaining 9.99% equity stake in Welspun Michigan Engineers 📝 Ola Electric boosts service capacity by 30 pc; adds over 50 centres, 500 technicians 📝 Piyush Goyal meets Schneider Electric CEO in Riyadh; discusses firm's investment plans for India 📝 Reliance Jio leads global mobile data traffic for third consecutive quarter, riding on 5G growth 📝 BLive EZY deploys 1,000 premium EVs to cater to festive demand 📝 Biocon Biologics' Bengaluru unit classified as voluntary action indicated by USFDA *Mint* 📝 Indoco Remedies Gets Final US FDA ANDA Nod for Varenicline Tablets 📝 Suzuki to supply new BEV model to Toyota as both companies expand partnership 📝 IndiGo Airlines has launched the BluChip loyalty program 📝 Govt plans to make onion transport by railways the norm to moderate prices 📝 GitHub's Thomas Dohmke praises India for fastest growing developer community 📝 Shreya Life Sciences sells high-end Nvidia chips to Russia, West's concern rises 📝 Bitcoin teases record high near $74,000, ETF inflow continues 📝 Dabur expands haircare portfolio with Sesa Care acquisition 📝 NCLAT asks Axis Bank, Siti Network creditors to hold ₹143 cr in separate account 📝 Meesho posts higher FY24 revenue driven by spike in user base 📝 India's iPhone exports soar by one-third in six months leading up to September 📝 Cap gemini trims 2024 revenue target again as soft markets hit Q3 sales

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